Roland, I agree with you that arguements should be based on numbers. However, the city upkeep is one dimension. Half cost Courthouses make a huge difference, especially with an aggressive approach.
This discussion reminds me a bit of all those threads arguing SE vs. CE. They went nowhere because the game is too complex for static analysis. It would be difficult if not impossible to numerically show that +1 commerce on +3 tiles is more balanced than +1 commerce on +2 tiles.
Darrell
I agree that the courthouses are a part of the organised trait. It is an important building and it is very nice to get it half price. With an aggressive approach and the slavery civic, it can help you to significantly reduce the cost of your empire by reducing the upkeep of conquered cities.
It is indeed very hard to compare traits mathematically. But if you don't try, then any discussion seems pointless to me. It would end up with something like:
'Person A: I think financial is great.
Person B: I think financial stinks.
Person A: You don't know anything about the game.
Person B: Yeah, now I've had a score of 100000 on emperor level.
Person A: Yeah, you must have cheated.'
I don't see the point in such a discussion.
So here an attempt for a comparison between organised and financial. I'll try to be conservative in my estimates on how much commerce is gained by a financial leader. The numbers are usually higher for my games with financial leaders.
Early game: cities are small, sizes capped at 6 due to happiness and health, average city size 4.
Financial has on average a 1-2 commerce bonus per city from cottages next to rivers, some hamlets and coastal resource tiles or other resource tiles. Organised has a discount on civic upkeep equal to 1.5-2 per city (civic upkeep being equal to 2+0.5N where N is city size, 4 in this case. Noble difficulty level gives 80% civic maintenance cost, Deity 100% civic maintenance cost.).
Mid game: cities are larger due to access to many luxury and health resources, size capped at 12 due to happiness and health. Courthouses, libraries, markets are being constructed. Average city size 10.
Financial will now significantly grow its benefits as more cottages can be maintained per city and many will grow to hamlet size, an average of 4-6 commerce per city. This commerce boost is multiplied by bonuses from markets and libraries, resulting in a bonus of 5-7.5 science/gold.
Organised has a discount on civic upkeep equal to 3-3.5 per city. Inflation hasn't reached meaningful levels yet, maybe the real discount is 3.5-4 per city. Organised gets a one time production discount of 60 hammer when building a courthouse and a few turns or extra gold because a comparable city from a non-organised leader would finish the building a few turns later. The only production bonuses could come from the organised religion civic and the forge so the bonus is close to 60 base hammers.
Late game: cities are large, capped around 20 and average at 16. Factories, groceries, banks, universities, observatories are being constructed.
Financial will now get a commerce boost on many tiles as most cottages will have far surpassed hamlet stage, an average of 8 commerce per city seems reasonable. The bonus from various science and gold buildings will surely surpass 50%. So a bonus of 12 science/gold is certainly attainable.
Organised has a discount on civic upkeep equal to 4-5 per city. Inflation could be around 50-75%% now (BTS levels of inflation) so the real discount is something like 6-9 per city.
Organised also gets a one time discount of 125 hammers on building a factory. However, the base hammer bonus is only 100 as the cities already have a forge. Because organised leaders also build the factory a few turns earlier, they will also enjoy a few turns of increased hammer production compared to non-organised leaders.
End game: Cities have reached their maximum size. Windmills and watermills have gotten a commerce boost from the electricity advance. Inflation has reached high levels. Average city size is 18
Financials gets a further commerce boost from tiles with windmills and watermills and the last cottages in new cities grow to hamlet stage. An average of 10 extra commerce per city is not unreasonable. The gold/science bonuses will be something like 75-100% meaning that the real gold/science bonus will be around 18 per city.
Organised has a discount on civic upkeep equal to 4.5-5.5 per city. Inflation could be around 100-175% now (BTS levels of inflation) so the real discount is something like 9-15 per city.
Of course there are situational bonuses that could further help both traits. Financial leaders could build even more cottages then I assumed in these calculations increasing their commerce yield compared to non-financial ones. Organised leaders can poprush courthouses in newly conquered cities while non-organised leaders need bigger cities and more population to do the same. Financial leaders can beeline to pottery for cottages and organised leaders can beeline to code of laws for courthouses. It's hard to take those things into account, but I don't think they are that important.
Disclaimer: This is a possible mathematical analysis of financial vs. organised. Since it depends on the number of cottages that you typically build, the analysis is far from perfect. It does give some insight in the difference between the traits. I'm not so sure about the inflation levels. I picked fairly high values of inflation but the next patch will reduce them again so maybe organised will then again decrease in its bonus.
edit (after reading Flamer123's post): There is a delay before the civic costs start to rise because the first few population points don't incur a civic upkeep cost (total population, not population per city). During your very early expansion civic upkeep costs will remain 0 for a while. The length of the delay is sensitive to the difficulty level because of a rounding down effect in the formula. During this period, the discount of civic upkeep cost due to the organised trait is also 0. It is impossible to take this effect into account in a per city analysis because the delay in civic upkeep cost increase is based on total empire wide population.