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Ooops, mutineer didn't believe that 'he' was gambling? Sorry, but unless one makes exactly the same moves each turn, in the same order, one is always gambling....one may lower the probability of 'failure' (in this case, alternative event occurance) with an alternative move...but one is ALWAYS gambling in ANY game that has 'random' occurances. Always. No matter what your 'experience.'

PS Remember, we dont know each other's turns, and if we made the same moves during the same game, we get the same score/win time, (or a mix of the two), else we didnt. If we made even ONE move/sequence different, we get different results most of the time. Thus the beauty of it all. If thats not pretty....er, well, I dont know if I can help you...
 
Apparently I forgot to submit this game. I eventually retired after getting Dowed by a pleased Russian empire as I was preparing to go to war with France. I settled on the dyes, and rexed out/barb captured 5 more cities. As I was starting to build a Cat/sword/chariot army, Russia attacked my south border city with a SOD numbering approximately 30 units....I did not care to continue given most of my units were 4-5 turns to the north, and it would have been a serious uphill battle just survive.
 
Caw glitch create 2 or more cow capital with out any other food. that making extremely low food capital. Cow are still food.
 
Ooops, mutineer didn't believe that 'he' was gambling? Sorry, but unless one makes exactly the same moves each turn, in the same order, one is always gambling....one may lower the probability of 'failure' (in this case, alternative event occurrence) with an alternative move...but one is ALWAYS gambling in ANY game that has 'random' occurrences. Always. No matter what your 'experience.'

I would agree with you that "gambling," or perhaps a better term is risk-taking, in Civ IV is indeed a reality. A lot of events, such as founding a religion (i.e. being the first to research the relevant tech), building a Wonder (i.e. being the first to complete it), any combat past your "free" wins against Barbs on lower difficulty levels--even with combat odds listed at 100% (I can point out some screenshots if you'd like), and many other aspects of the game have a risk of failure.

Deciding what level of risk is acceptable for you to undertake such a risk is often up to you. You can choose not to try and found a religion or not to try and build a Wonder. You can often decide not to make an attack or you can decide to back up your attacks with extra attackers to mitigate the risks of loss.

Even if you are on the defensive, it is often your choice to fall back further (giving up position or even cities) with your units. You could even choose to pre-emptively attack an enemy stack with your city's defending Longbowmen instead of defending--a silly choice in most cases, but that is because given the options available to you, staying fortified in your besieged city with your Longbowmen is likely your least risky option. Even though you may still stand a good chance of losing by remaining as a fortified defender, the chance of winning some or all of the battles is much greater (less risky) than "rushing out" with your Longbowmen. So, even combat where you are on the defensive, in many cases, gives you the chance to take a bigger or a smaller risk.


Now, back to the text that you quoted, where I said that Mutineer did not believe that he was not gambling, it was said within the context of Jesusin's claim about settling in the starting location. Purely within that context, within the parameters of Mutineer rightly expecting (at least from his experience) there to be a second Food if he settled in place, it was not a gamble to settle in place if he would be content to have 1 extra Food Resource show up and given that he was willing to accept the risk that all of the remaining hidden squares in his fat cross could turn out to be unworkable squares, such as Desert squares.

So, yes, there was risk (or gambling) involved with the other hidden squares, but since his decision was only motivated by having an additional Food Resource, he did NOT CARE as to the probability of the results of the other hidden squares, so no gamble/risk related to those other squares was relevant to his decision. In fact, it is not hard to "fog-gaze" at the initial game screenshot and notice that all of the initial Settler location's fat cross' hidden squares (minus the obvious Peak) are better than Desert squares, having either Forest, a River bordering the squares, or both, so although he did not really care what appeared in those hidden squares, he was also capable of being observant enough to believe that he had a very nice Cottagable location, given a second Food Resource.

COULD he have done better by moving? Forget the map's layout and just pretend that we don't know what's in the hidden squares. The answer is that he might have done better but he might not have. He chose to reduce his risk of not finding (in his opinion) another capitol location that was equally or more desirable (that of a capitol with 2+ Food Resources) within a timeframe that is reasonable for a Normal Game Speed game. Instead of moving out into the unknown and accepting what many players did by settling on the Dye or 1S of the Dye, he chose (based on his experience and his resulting expectation of 2 Food appearing in the capitol's area) the less risky option of settling in place.


Sure, his "rule" about 2 Food Resources automatically appearing in the capitol's fat cross failed him this time. But if that rule were true--many "rules" that players develop usually appear to be true for them most of the time, if not all of the time--then he actually would have had a decent capitol location (an even better location than settling on the Dye Resource IF the Dye missed out on the additional Food Resource--a better location in HIS EYES, anyway--many would argue that the Gold is more valuable to have than an extra Food Resource :D).
 
Many experienced players will tell that this is not true.

I was pretty sure that I pre-emptively addressed this point. Only the subset of all of the games that Mutineer has played are relevant here. Even if you could find someone else that had played the exact same subset of all games, then that person might have failed to make the same observation, even if the presence of 2+ Food Resources was equally true for them.

I even allowed for the possibility that Mutineer had actually played some games where his initial capitol location did not start with 2 Food Resources and that said games were statistically insignificant in the sample set of games that he played.

I also allowed for the possibility of bias, such as his potential use of Map Finder to give him maps with 2+ Food Resources being partly responsible for shaping his opinions. Many other biases could exist, such as that all-too-familiar human frailty known as "selective memory"--remembering the cases that support your theory and ignoring or "conveniently forgetting" the cases that do not. ;)

What matters in the discussion of why Mutineer did what he did is the set of Mutineer's beliefs.


Also, I believe that I also addressed the point about what "other players" might believe with my examples of trading with AIs.


Finally, just because a lot of players (or in Mutineer's unfortunate case, one player--at least, only one that we know of) believe something to be true, does not make it true. How many "experienced players" on the forums have advocated "busting every bit of fog" to prevent Barbarians from spawning? How many players have been misled by this advice? How many players have thus wasted turn after turn of gold on unnecessary upkeep from having too high of a military unit count and unnecessary upkeep from excess Unit Supply? How many players, had they not been thus misled, would have been able to come up with the more accurate 2 x 2 radius around units rule on their own?


Honestly, I have seen many capitals with 1 food only, if you have tried to pay attention to AI's capital as well.

Here you are demonstrating transference--you are transcribing the belief about a player's capitol to that of an AI's capitol. Mutineer made no such claim about AI capitols.

In developing a theory (or in our discussions, we called such a theory a "rule"), what you are doing is a great way of attempting to generalize the rule and then prove or disprove the rule in the more generalized context. However, you cannot do the opposite and try and use an unproven general rule (AI capitol's locations) to try and disprove a specific case (the player's capitol location). Had Mutineer's claim been about all capitols, then you'd have a case here, but since he made no such claim, your observations about the status of AI capitols is completely irrelevant to Mutineer's case.

That said, thank you for sharing this information about AI capitol locations, as it helps to satisfy a related inquiry that many of us may have had at the back of our minds. :goodjob:


Have you heard of cow glitch?
This was a real example of cow glitch.

No, I had not heard of it. I briefly looked through the thread that you linked but I could not find reference the word "glitch" in the first three pages. I randomly read through some of the entries and after that, gave up looking.

Can you explain what is meant by the Cow glitch?

Also, if anyone knows of a way to search through a particular thread for a keyword without having to click though every page of the thread, I'd appreciate hearing about how to do so.
 
Also, if anyone knows of a way to search through a particular thread for a keyword without having to click though every page of the thread, I'd appreciate hearing about how to do so.

Use the "search this thread" option, that is just above the posts.
 
No, I had not heard of it. I briefly looked through the thread that you linked but I could not find reference the word "glitch" in the first three pages. I randomly read through some of the entries and after that, gave up looking.

Can you explain what is meant by the Cow glitch?

The name was probably introduce 1st by Obsolete, which refers to the bug of the map generator, the algorithm it uses could produce a food poor capital as low as a plain cow only.

I mentioned about AI's capital since the map generator uses the same code to choose and normalize the capital regardless it is for human player or AI.
 
The name was probably introduce 1st by Obsolete, which refers to the bug of the map generator, the algorithm it uses could produce a food poor capital as low as a plain cow only.

Ahhhhh, good to know! So, would you, from your experience and that of reading up on other players' games, be implying that all initial capitol locations are given at least 1 Food Resource? Or, in your opinion, should we not be trying to rely on any such rules about our starting fat crosses?

I mentioned about AI's capital since the map generator uses the same code to choose and normalize the capital regardless it is for human player or AI.

Again, that's useful info, thanks. Now why is it that in some games, the AIs' capitols seem to be so much better than the player's location... :lol:
 
Now why is it that in some games, the AIs' capitols seem to be so much better than the player's location... :lol:

Give you the incentive to take it away from them.:devil:

That is another reason to maximize opponents in HOF games >>> more juicy capitals to take. (or fast growing/teching AI to loose to :cry:)
 
Again, that's useful info, thanks. Now why is it that in some games, the AIs' capitols seem to be so much better than the player's location... :lol:

You should have seen a floodplains gold hill tile, along with other good tiles, the game designer gave Mansa Musa in Ottoman game a year or so ago and I cursed myself for going for the peacefull builder culture game. :). He was too far away to take it on a culture game and he was teching like a mad man.
 
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