nvm
- Thread starter xarthaz
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JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
Incidentially, the rate of growth in the unemployment rate is falling, and many other measures are yes, still rising, but theyre rising at slower rates, so we are nearing the top (or bottom)
I dont think branch closings count as much as a bank failing. That is just reducing overhead.
PS: Why is this named depression watch? We're not in a depression yet. We're still in a recession. I think RRW's thread got jacked. I'm just saying that the proper term should be used, unless we're meaning "Recession? Sure is. Depression? Dunno, let's watch for it!'
PSS: 60 minutes had a fluff piece on Bernanke. Very sad, let him off light
I dont think branch closings count as much as a bank failing. That is just reducing overhead.
PS: Why is this named depression watch? We're not in a depression yet. We're still in a recession. I think RRW's thread got jacked. I'm just saying that the proper term should be used, unless we're meaning "Recession? Sure is. Depression? Dunno, let's watch for it!'
PSS: 60 minutes had a fluff piece on Bernanke. Very sad, let him off light
What happens if initial claims go back to 500k next measuring period?
Is it a fundamental shift or only the result of the usual upturn of economic activity and employment in spring?
Census hiring played a role.
Integral
Can't you hear it?
Because xarthas got to the thread before RRW or I did.
re: unemployment, I'll have a comparative graph of that up soon.
JH said:
Jim Cramer said:
Because xarthas got to the thread before RRW or I did.
re: unemployment, I'll have a comparative graph of that up soon.
If he has the Cramer nod, then we're in for more trouble.
I'm curious as to how new entrants to the workforce are counted and whether those are reflected in U3 (and whether U3 is necessarily the best metric to measure the changes in the workplace such as reduced work hours)
Integral
Can't you hear it?
Thou shalt not disagree with the Cramer.If he has the Cramer nod, then we're in for more trouble.
On the first point, I'm not sure - the labor force grew substantially from April to May (by 350,000 jobs), but I don't know if that's related to recent college graduates or some other factor.
On the second, the broader measures are definitely the place to go when considering reduced work hours, the shift from full-time to part-time employment, etc. That is a valid point. I'll make two graphs later - one of the change in U3 from its lowest point by recession, and one of U6. I'll probably include the 1980-82, 1991, 2001 and 2008 recessions.
edit - that was a bad way of explaining the graphs. They will essentially look like this, only using U3 and U6 instead of raw employment, and also for more recessions.
Cramer's been wrong A LOT in recent months. Like the last 14 months. If you want details, dig up youtube videos of him and Jon Stewart sparring. Or just of Jon Stewart skewering Cramer on numerous occasions.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-18.pdf
The SF Fed takes a peek at what I asked.
The SF Fed takes a peek at what I asked.
Integral
Can't you hear it?
I was joking.
I view Cramer (and most of the CNBC crowd) nothing more than entertainment - not financial news.Good find. The U6 is the official measure that's closest to what you want (involuntary part-time and marginally attached).
xarthaz believes that if inflation was accurately accounted for, then the numbers would come up as a depression.
Considering that Fed chairmen do not give interviews, I don't know if it could have been anything other than fluff. Was good fluff though.
More data shows Americans are cutting back on their credit cards and other forms of debt at a record rate and I've already explained savings rates are exploding.
Consumers paid down $15.7 billion of their obligations in April on top of $16.5 billion in March and $10.9 billion in February. In total, this three-month slide amounts to a credit contraction (not including mortgages) of $172 billion annual rate, which is truly historic and deflationary too.
Although we are likely past the worst point of the recession, consumer spending habits don't seem to be changing. Frugality is very much intact and to give you some precedent the economy bottomed in the summer of 1932 but attitudes towards discretionary spending and credit changed for an entire generation. Expect the boomers to do the same.
Read pg. 4 of the Week in Review section of the Sunday New York Times
"The Recession, Wal-Mart Style". The caption reads "Pasta is Big. Prime Cuts Aren’t. Toilet training is being fast-tracked."
John Fleming, chief merchandising officer for WMT, says: "We’re seeing a movement away from protein into carbohydrates. It stretches the dollar a lot further. This whole idea of staying home and entertaining at home, we’re seeing that everywhere."
What’s hot?
LCD televisions
Popcorn/microwave poppers
‘Take and Bake’ pizzas
Home repair products
Car maintenance/motor oil/filters
Pull-ups
Vitamins/sleep aids/pain relievers
Vegetable and herb seed
On the employment front don't get too excited yet. Bear in mind, the worst number we ever saw in the 2001 recession was -325,000? Just to put a 500,000+ decline into perspective.
Consumers paid down $15.7 billion of their obligations in April on top of $16.5 billion in March and $10.9 billion in February. In total, this three-month slide amounts to a credit contraction (not including mortgages) of $172 billion annual rate, which is truly historic and deflationary too.
Although we are likely past the worst point of the recession, consumer spending habits don't seem to be changing. Frugality is very much intact and to give you some precedent the economy bottomed in the summer of 1932 but attitudes towards discretionary spending and credit changed for an entire generation. Expect the boomers to do the same.
Read pg. 4 of the Week in Review section of the Sunday New York Times
"The Recession, Wal-Mart Style". The caption reads "Pasta is Big. Prime Cuts Aren’t. Toilet training is being fast-tracked."
John Fleming, chief merchandising officer for WMT, says: "We’re seeing a movement away from protein into carbohydrates. It stretches the dollar a lot further. This whole idea of staying home and entertaining at home, we’re seeing that everywhere."
What’s hot?
LCD televisions
Popcorn/microwave poppers
‘Take and Bake’ pizzas
Home repair products
Car maintenance/motor oil/filters
Pull-ups
Vitamins/sleep aids/pain relievers
Vegetable and herb seed
On the employment front don't get too excited yet. Bear in mind, the worst number we ever saw in the 2001 recession was -325,000? Just to put a 500,000+ decline into perspective.
Integral
Can't you hear it?
Another release from the Fed today.
Why am I not surprised?
Note that we are already in a situation that is worse, from an employment point of view, than the 'more adverse' scenario.
Why am I not surprised?
Note that we are already in a situation that is worse, from an employment point of view, than the 'more adverse' scenario.
JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
As I recall, we have a three month trend of the unemployment figures increasing, but at a decreasing rate (ie, the job loss per month is slowing). Remember that I don't look at just one figure, but I believe the trend is what is to be looked at.
And to the later poster, it has nothing to do with the census. Seriously, WTH
Integral
Can't you hear it?
Just a bit of clarification - while this is true (the seasonally adjusted job loss per month has been falling in magnitude for about a quarter), the rate itself has been consistently increasing by 40-50 bps each month due to fluctuations in the size of the labor force.
The Decennial will provide a boost of about 750,000 jobs over the next 18 months. That's nontrivial, but also not the reason that job losses slowed in April. The runup will probably begin in a month or two.
JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
Int,
Census won't really start staffing until fall. They haven't even finished some of their preliminary tests yet. The change from eliminating the long form and relying more on yearly ACS has made things challengin for them
Census won't really start staffing until fall. They haven't even finished some of their preliminary tests yet. The change from eliminating the long form and relying more on yearly ACS has made things challengin for them
Stolen Rutters
Deity
http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/index.html
The next round of Census hiring begins in the fall, with the bulk of the hires picked up next year. My roommate and a couple friends are thinking of taking on the work when the hiring starts up.
The next round of Census hiring begins in the fall, with the bulk of the hires picked up next year. My roommate and a couple friends are thinking of taking on the work when the hiring starts up.
But there have been people hired already, right?
