Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

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I wonder how many times I will need to repost this graph?
You literally posted a graph where it appears that there are just a few days in the entire time where there were more positive reviews than negative. Can we at least agree that if there are more negative reviews than positive, that the turnaround isn’t underway?

We’re over 6 months post-release and virtually every metric for this game reveals underwhelming performance, at best. You’re going to need to show more than the reviews being slightly less negative for a few weeks.
 
You’re going to need to show more than the reviews being slightly less negative for a few weeks.
Can y'all work out a reasonable acceptable threshold for a positive trend upfront, or are you just going to say to every bit of potentially positive news that it isn't enough?

All of this argument seems to boil down to "well it doesn't convince me", from whoever posts it.

Cool. It doesn't have to. That's not the point of the thread.
 
I sure as hell wish I could remember any keyword with which to search for that link to a post by the community rep of a different company who was much more forthcoming and said any review score below 80% (as I remember it) was concerning to the company, and something they wanted to turn around as fast as possible.

Because if I could get that article's number, that would be the number I would set.

Since I don't know any other franchise than Civ (well, and Elder Scrolls) the name of the game itself didn't lodge in my mind.
 
I sure as hell wish I could remember any keyword with which to search for that link to a post by the community rep of a different company who was much more forthcoming and said any review score below 80% (as I remember it) was concerning to the company, and something they wanted to turn around as fast as possible.

Because if I could get that article's number, that would be the number I would set.

Since I don't know any other franchise than Civ (well, and Elder Scrolls) the name of the game itself didn't lodge in my mind.
80% is an important Steam or Metacritic metric, and I can't remember which one. Maybe both. 80% is when Positive ticks to Very Positive on Steam, and I have no idea how much stock is put into Metacritic anymore.

That said, suggesting that the rating must get all the way to 80% to count as acceptable threshold for determining a positive trend is why I asked for said acceptable threshold to be "reasonable".

I guess that means I need to determine reasonable. A 10% sustained maximum would probably be the limit, given how much work it'll likely take to shift the existing % of reviews that high. Steam currently has English language reviews at 46% positive of about 24.4k reviews. Getting that to 56% would take at least another 2.5 - 3k positive reviews and 0 negative ones, to put it in context. Personally, I think the trend would be evidencial significantly before that point was hit.
 
Well, I gave you my reason: because a rep with another company says that is their target.

That may be a very hard target for Civ 7 to hit, but I have given you my reason for thinking it's the one they should try to hit.
 
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If you put proper error bars you'll notice no trend. The number of daily reviews is far too low for the graph to mean anything. Remember that if you see 25 reviews in a day, the associated standard deviation is sqrt(25)=5, or ±20%.
The graph isn't measuring day periods. It's measuring 2 week periods. So the standard deviation of a day doesn't mean anything, because that isn't what it is. It's a rolling 2-week average.
Please don't subject us to your pointless graph that proves nothing.
We can all see that you are basing your so called 2 weeks of positive reviews on a week that starts on a Thursday.
As others have pointed out, you can get totally different numbers depending on what day you start from.
The release date according to Steam was 10th Feb. That was a Monday.
So, its more accurate to count weekly numbers starting on a Monday.
Which is what I did. I proved that for the last 3 full weeks starting on a Monday, only 1 week had more positive reviews. But it was only positive by 6. The next week was negative by 6. So that positive week got cancelled out by the very next week. When you count from a Monday.
But, hey, lets move the weekly start date on our counting, until we get 2 positive weeks eh?


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You getting caught up on what day of the week the graph starts has me gobsmacked. The full release was on February 11th. The early access launch was on the 6th. I don't know why it would say it launched on the 10th

What about the issue with the fact that you can get a totally different graph, by starting the counted week on a different day?
No you do not. You do not understand what the graph is showing. Perhaps that's my fault for not explaining it clearly enough. It's a 2-week rolling average. Every single day starting from the 19th of February up until when I made it which is the 22nd (I think) is plotted showing the 2-week rolling average. Starting on a different day - which is already plotted - would not change the graph. Unless you mean if you start on a random day in April? Then yes the graph would look different because you're not including all the data we have. That graph includes all the data we had up until the 22nd.
It's simple - the data is junk in the first place. I mean you could make qualitative conclusion that Civ7 has not the best reception so far. But any attempts to get quantitative results, like trends, fail because we have so limited data.

BTW, a piece of information to mull over - we usually look at reviews for the base game, but there are separate reviews on, for example, DLC content. They are really few and thus have even less value, but since this thread is about speculation it could be interesting to speculate about them and their difference with the base game reviews.
The data surrounding the Steam reviews isn't limited though? It's plain to see for everyone?
Game was released on 10th Feb. Which was a Monday. That is why it makes sense to count weeks starting on a Monday. If you want to coubt each week. Personally I prefer to just add up the figures each month.
The official release was on the 11th February. The early access started on the 6th. As I've already stated, 64% of the reviews came before the official release on the 11th. Why would you be happy to omit the majority of reviews?

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Does it really matter?
This is one reason why it's not really feasible to count reviews on a weekly basis. Far better to count them at the end of each month. Plus keeping an eye on the total review count and the average number of players each month.
It was on a 2-week basis. Why is a 4-week basis fine but a 2-week basis unacceptable to you? A month is basically just 4 weeks. Here is a 30-day rolling average as an attempt to satisfy you. Once again, it shows recent reviews have been the highest since launch. Every graph will show this as that's what the data shows...

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I'm kinda checked out of this discussion because it's so stupid, but you can ask yourselves how granular you want to go and whether it makes sense. It's like looking through a microscope at an asphalt road - it's going to be bumpy and rocky. You can find places where it appears to go up or down, but if you zoom out, it's a flat road.

In the case of Civ 7, it's a very slightly downhill road that's flattening out. There's no proof of an incline coming. The only reasonable way to measure with this low amount of reviews is over months.
How far do we have to zoom out to see this "flat road". The above graph is now a 30-day rolling average. It's still clear to see that recent reviews have ticked upwards - the best since launch.
You literally posted a graph where it appears that there are just a few days in the entire time where there were more positive reviews than negative. Can we at least agree that if there are more negative reviews than positive, that the turnaround isn’t underway?

We’re over 6 months post-release and virtually every metric for this game reveals underwhelming performance, at best. You’re going to need to show more than the reviews being slightly less negative for a few weeks.
Have you been reading a single thing I've said? The reviews are the best they've been since launch. It's a fact. It's too early to say if a turnaround is underway, I've never claimed a turnaround is happening, but if one is in progress then it has already started and it's clear to see in any graph that is made because that is what the data shows. All I've stated are facts based on data. The best 2 week period since launch, as well as the best 30 day period since launch. The August peak is close to this peak, but this October peak slightly edges it and had better build-up.
 
Well, I gave you my reason: because a rep with another company says that is their target.

That may be a very hard target for Civ 7 to hit, but I have given you my reason for thinking it's the one they should try to hit.
And I qualified that I asked for a reasonable figure (I also asked for it upfront, too). 80% is not reasonable indication of a trend depicting an increasing score, in my opinion. By that point, the score would've increased, categorically.

But if that's what you think is reasonable, fair enough. Illuminating nonetheless.
 
What concerns me is the dwindling official communication. Information about updates comes later and later, we don't have a road map etc. It's not even so much that I personally absolutely need that form of a constant feeding with news (it's nice, if tis gameplay related, but meaningless if pure PR or the typical social media directed interaction), but if for something that has been the communication style for a while and then it silently changes, it rises questions. Especially if no explanation is given. I would be fully ok, if they e.g. need a month extra for something bigger and this meaning a month without a patch (or just a small one for us), but why then not just stating that directly and upfront? Is there really fear to cause further damage with such a move? (If it has been given somewhere, then I have to critize and dislike once more the habit of littering small pieces information spread out over various channels)
 
Bobby Kotick once said something like every 5 points above 80% review scores doubled their sales (EA), so that was their target. Paraphrasing a bit, but maybe that's who @Gori the Grey thought about?
 
You literally posted a graph where it appears that there are just a few days in the entire time where there were more positive reviews than negative. Can we at least agree that if there are more negative reviews than positive, that the turnaround isn’t underway?

We’re over 6 months post-release and virtually every metric for this game reveals underwhelming performance, at best. You’re going to need to show more than the reviews being slightly less negative for a few weeks.
Also the number of players who play previous version of Civ are increasing the gap on “civ” vii .
 
I can see with some people on here, that I am wasting my time commenting.
There's always that one person that just will not accept the established facts that are right in front of their eyes.
So, enjoy your arguments in this thread.
I will just stick to checking and reporting on the numbers at the end of each month.
No amount of posting stupid graphs will convince me that this game is faring better in reviews and player counts.
 
What concerns me is the dwindling official communication. Information about updates comes later and later, we don't have a road map etc.
Nothing actually changing here, it's just a matter of development process.

There are some "Must have" features, you'll implement no matter what, because they expected by the community and will never break the game. Things like scout auto-explore or research queue. They could be announced earlier, they could be put into roadmap.

Some things in "Must have" category are not a single feature, but long term goals. For example, Firaxis knew they want to allow playing MP without AI and for this they have to change how they work with treasure resources and distant lands. Steps towards those goals also could be put into roadmap.

But there are also features who don't fall into "Must have", and they are released only if they successfully pass playtest. Those features can't be put into roadmap and can't be announced earlier. And they are the majority of the patch notes now.

So, it's not a problem with communication, it's just the product becoming much more mature.
 
Nothing actually changing here, it's just a matter of development process.

There are some "Must have" features, you'll implement no matter what, because they expected by the community and will never break the game. Things like scout auto-explore or research queue. They could be announced earlier, they could be put into roadmap.

Some things in "Must have" category are not a single feature, but long term goals. For example, Firaxis knew they want to allow playing MP without AI and for this they have to change how they work with treasure resources and distant lands. Steps towards those goals also could be put into roadmap.

But there are also features who don't fall into "Must have", and they are released only if they successfully pass playtest. Those features can't be put into roadmap and can't be announced earlier. And they are the majority of the patch notes now.

So, it's not a problem with communication, it's just the product becoming much more mature.
Sorry, but that doesn't convince me really (and if it would be true, I would be another alarm bell for me).

Paradox shows that its possible to communicate patch content weeks or months before release. If released improvements/fetaures in case of Civ7 are really determined that short-term, I appears to me like having no longterm internal plan how to progress with the game. And as important as inhouse playtesting is...if releasing entire features depends on the final verdict of this group, this again hints in the direction of a missing plan and as well too an inefficent use of resources (imagine devs develop a feature up to beta state...and then the inhouse gameplay testers find out that it isn't fun and then it gets cancelled or at best back to the drawboard)
 
I think people are fighting over relative wins Vs absolute wins. 40% positive reviews is pretty bad for a game like this.
Going from 40% to 50% in one particular month is a relative victory. You can say things are getting better, but you don't strictly know that it will continue to trend in that way.
It might hit 50% and stay stagnant. It might hit 50% just for that month and the overall average barely changes, for example.

In absolute terms, it has a long way to go to be considered well reviewed. This is why a lot of critics continue to say that it's not enough - because that's true.
The game isn't going to be saved by a handful of minor patches adding things that should've already been in the game like map sizes.

And while I think many people think the game is irredeemable, there's almost certainly a silent majority who think the game is below par as-is and are waiting for the game to Actually change.

Not change in the Youtuber clickbait style, or completely overhaul the game into something unrecognisable. But just genuine constructive change, that is major in substance, and fleshes out the skeleton that we have. And hopefully addresses some of the core issues some people have with it.
 
Bobby Kotick once said something like every 5 points above 80% review scores doubled their sales (EA), so that was their target. Paraphrasing a bit, but maybe that's who @Gori the Grey thought about?
Thank you, but it wasn't that. It was something posted in this thread (or one of the others we've had like it). It concerned a single game. One that has been released recently and so (the poster thought) was at about the same stage of its improvement cycle as Civ. It was a community rep, addressing fans. It was pretty specific about game features: "you've asked for X, so we're working hard to get that in place." But in the course of it, he said that anything below (again I'm working from memory) 80% positive reviews was concerning to this studio and something they wanted to address right away.
 
I think people are fighting over relative wins Vs absolute wins. 40% positive reviews is pretty bad for a game like this.
Going from 40% to 50% in one particular month is a relative victory. You can say things are getting better, but you don't strictly know that it will continue to trend in that way.
It might hit 50% and stay stagnant. It might hit 50% just for that month and the overall average barely changes, for example.

In absolute terms, it has a long way to go to be considered well reviewed. This is why a lot of critics continue to say that it's not enough - because that's true.
The game isn't going to be saved by a handful of minor patches adding things that should've already been in the game like map sizes.

And while I think many people think the game is irredeemable, there's almost certainly a silent majority who think the game is below par as-is and are waiting for the game to Actually change.

Not change in the Youtuber clickbait style, or completely overhaul the game into something unrecognisable. But just genuine constructive change, that is major in substance, and fleshes out the skeleton that we have. And hopefully addresses some of the core issues some people have with it.
I try to stay out of the arguing, my own personal view is that the game has had a poor reception - based on the fact it seems to regularly have less than half the players of Civ5 never mind Civ6.
But i really dont mind if people feel my logic is flawed :)

As for whether the game is irredeemable, i think not. Personally they would need a classic mode of some sort for me to want to play the game again. But i think for a good chunk of other players the required changes are not as drastic. Heck i felt 6 was a step backwards in some ways so i am probably not a typical player.
 
Sorry, but that doesn't convince me really (and if it would be true, I would be another alarm bell for me).

Paradox shows that its possible to communicate patch content weeks or months before release.
Could you provide any examples? I've just opened a random patch notes for EU4 and full patch notes for 1.11 were published at March, 6 2015, while patch itself was released on March, 8.

Also, remember that Paradox makes simulators, not strategy games. Their factions are usually unbalanced by default (at least in historical simulators), they also release toons of DLC, which could be played in any combination, so Paradox cares much less about gameplay consistency and I imagine they could announce big features and release them regardless of playtest.

Anyway, that's not great process. I work in much more robust software development areas (mostly fintech) and even there if a feature is user-facing, in most companies it is not released if it doesn't pass actual user testing after being implemented. In game development where the whole point of software is to make fun, promising gameplay feature release before it was actually tested, is clearly wrong.
 
Could you provide any examples? I've just opened a random patch notes for EU4 and full patch notes for 1.11 were published at March, 6 2015, while patch itself was released on March, 8.
He's probably referring to dev diaries not patch notes. There's usually a lot more detail than firaxis provides (somewhat depending on game) and far more in advance. You usually see what they are planning while they still have a lot of placeholder graphics, and it gives a lot of time for community feedback.

EU5's prerelease details are phenomenal in particular. Providing everything from the demographics in each map province to the narrative events associated with countries, and they've done it early enough to act on player feedback.
 
He's probably referring to dev diaries not patch notes. There's usually a lot more detail than firaxis provides (somewhat depending on game) and far more in advance. You usually see what they are planning while they still have a lot of placeholder graphics, and it gives a lot of time for community feedback.

EU5's prerelease details are phenomenal in particular. Providing everything from the demographics in each map province to the narrative events associated with countries, and they've done it early enough to act on player feedback.
Ah, yes Paradox dev diaries are cool. I enjoyed reading them for Stellaris (the only Paradox game I tolerate). The main thing is that they don't promise features, they tell what's being worked on. And while it really works for niche gaming community, it usually doesn't work for AAA games, there each piece of communication is interpreted as promise. (The point about Paradox games requiring less testing also stands)
 
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