Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

[Smegger213]

Again: follow my instructions, assume that "past two weeks" means exactly "past 14 days" and there is no need to know when to start counting from.

But, it isn't is it. You can't start counting from today because more reviews will be coming in.
You would have to start counting back from yesterday. Which gives you 56.03% positive for 7 days counting back from yesterday.
Which comes out with the following for the last 2 full weeks.
Week starting Tuesday 11th Nov, 144 pos, 113 neg = 56.03% pos.
Week starting Tuesday 18th Nov, 156 pos, 116 neg = 57.35% pos.
Add those 2 weeks percentages together then divide by 2 gives you an average of 56.69% positive for the last 2 full weeks.
Its been stated that its been 60% positive over 4 weeks, yet I just proved that its been 56.69% positive over the last 2 weeks.

 

[Crashdummy]

I think its clear that the general sentiment towards the game has improved, even if its still low (the latest 60% is a low value, although much better than before)

What part of 1.3 and its announcements had the bigger impact? I dont think we can know for certain

This is good news for Civ 7, even when there is still work to do to get out of the hole where the game was

 

[uppi]

But, it isn't is it. You can't start counting from today because more reviews will be coming in.
You would have to start counting back from yesterday. Which gives you 56.03% positive for 7 days counting back from yesterday.
Which comes out with the following for the last 2 full weeks.
Week starting Tuesday 11th Nov, 144 pos, 113 neg = 56.03% pos.
Week starting Tuesday 18th Nov, 156 pos, 116 neg = 57.35% pos.
Add those 2 weeks percentages together then divide by 2 gives you an average of 56.69% positive for the last 2 full weeks.
Its been stated that its been 60% positive over 4 weeks, yet I just proved that its been 56.69% positive over the last 2 weeks.

You can totally start counting from today. Just follow my instructions.

 

[Smegger213]

You can totally start counting from today. Just follow my instructions.

I don't need or want to start counting from today. What would be the point in counting from today when there will still be reviews coming in?
Best thing to do is count back from yesterday where we have a full day count on the SteamDB graph for.

 

[uppi]

I don't need or want to start counting from today. What would be the point in counting from today when there will still be reviews coming in?
Best thing to do is count back from yesterday where we have a full day count on the SteamDB graph for.

It does not matter that there may still be reviews coming in "today" (whatever that means, this is somewhat arbitrary anyway). You can get a clean 7-day or 14-day period from any point in time.

 

[Gorbles]

I don't need or want to start counting from today. What would be the point in counting from today when there will still be reviews coming in?
Best thing to do is count back from yesterday where we have a full day count on the SteamDB graph for.

A better question would be: what is the point in constantly trying to find ways to make the review scores look lower than whoever happens to be posting on-topic news about player stats?

If it satisfies you, you could post in their stead, using your lower averages. The averages would still be increasing, because that's how the numbers are working out. But you don't. You wait for someone else to post positive news, and then you post. Why?

 

[Smegger213]

It does not matter that there may still be reviews coming in "today" (whatever that means, this is somewhat arbitrary anyway). You can get a clean 7-day or 14-day period from any point in time.

I thought it was obvious about reviews coming in today. The graph for today currently says 80 pos & 22 neg. But that's what it is now. By the end of the day the count will be different. That's what I am trying to get at.
We have a full review count for yesterday. That is why I think its better to count back from yesterday. Pointless counting today, as the total count for today will not be known yet.

 

[Smegger213]

A better question would be: what is the point in constantly trying to find ways to make the review scores look lower than whoever happens to be posting on-topic news about player stats?

If it satisfies you, you could post in their stead, using your lower averages. The averages would still be increasing, because that's how the numbers are working out.

I am not trying to make the review figures look lower.
I am just trying to get totally accurate numbers.
What I said about the last 2 weeks was totally accurate because you can't add today's reviews to the count because you don't have the final days count until today is over.

 

[UWHabs]

But the reviews for today are still reviews? I mean sure if you count today in the totals maybe you're dealing with a "6.5" day sample (or a "7.5" day sample depending on which dates you include) for the last week, sure. Unless if there's a specific reason why you might think positive or negative reviews might come in different parts of the day, it's really a huge nitpick to exclude them, good or bad.

 

[AD1730]

This whole discussion is why I think proclaiming a turnaround should wait at least until the recent reviews are out of the “gray zone” on Steam. I believe that’s a perfectly fair standard and one that would potentially have an impact on sales. Currently, recent reviews are in the gray zone with 55% positive over the past 30 days, according to the Steam store page.

 

[Smegger213]

But the reviews for today are still reviews? I mean sure if you count today in the totals maybe you're dealing with a "6.5" day sample (or a "7.5" day sample depending on which dates you include) for the last week, sure. Unless if there's a specific reason why you might think positive or negative reviews might come in different parts of the day, it's really a huge nitpick to exclude them, good or bad.

I just don't see the point in including today's reviews in any counting because its not a full and final figure.
EG in the last few minutes today's count has now got to 86 pos & 23 neg. Its changing all the time. When 15 minutes ago it was 80 pos and 22 neg.
Much better to count from having a full days count IMO.

 

[Smegger213]

This whole discussion is why I think proclaiming a turnaround should wait at least until the recent reviews are out of the “gray zone” on Steam. I believe that’s a perfectly fair standard and one that would potentially have an impact on sales. Currently, recent reviews are in the gray zone with 55% positive over the past 30 days, according to the Steam store page.

I agree.
We should just wait until the end of the month.
Then we can get a full review count for the month, and a player count too.
Then we can compare it to last month and previous months.

 

[Leucarum]

And if it shows player counts/reviews up? As seems likely... It does look like Civ7 is better recieced now than at launch and I'm glad Civ7 is getting better reviews, even though I've been (and will continue to be) harsh towards kt.. There is a really good game buried in there and I hope Firaxos are able to dig it out!

 

[Gorbles]

I am not trying to make the review figures look lower.
I am just trying to get totally accurate numbers.
What I said about the last 2 weeks was totally accurate because you can't add today's reviews to the count because you don't have the final days count until today is over.

I just don't see the point in including today's reviews in any counting because its not a full and final figure.
EG in the last few minutes today's count has now got to 86 pos & 23 neg. Its changing all the time. When 15 minutes ago it was 80 pos and 22 neg.
Much better to count from having a full days count IMO.

All figures are always changing all the time. People seem to be posting new reviews daily. There is no threshold, no cutoff, that affects "accuracy" here. The stats are accurate as and when people post them, and one second later they're out of date.

There are no full or final figures to wait for (at least, until people stop reviewing the game at all). It's a poor standard to try and aim for.

Like I said, if you want to post your calculated scores, then do that. But you don't ever seem to do it, without someone else posting first. Your own personal threshold for accuracy does not automatically guarantee accuracy. It's just the cutoff you've decided makes the most sense. Which is probably why all of this keeps going around in circles.

 

[uppi]

I thought it was obvious about reviews coming in today. The graph for today currently says 80 pos & 22 neg. But that's what it is now. By the end of the day the count will be different. That's what I am trying to get at.
We have a full review count for yesterday. That is why I think its better to count back from yesterday. Pointless counting today, as the total count for today will not be known yet.

"Today" is a very subjective term. It makes no sense to exclude reviews from "today", because we first would need to agree what "today" even means.

As I said before: If you want to reproduce the numbers, follow my instructions. If you cannot do that for some reason, what are you trying to do here? If you cannot follow the method (which has been clearly described), you won't reproduce the results.

I agree.
We should just wait until the end of the month.
Then we can get a full review count for the month, and a player count too.
Then we can compare it to last month and previous months.

If you have to wait until the end of the month for something which is unlikely to have a monthly period, then you probably should not be analyzing data, because you clearly have no idea what you are doing.

 

[UWHabs]

The game isn't going to live or die whether it's 56% instead of 60%, or 58% instead of 56% either.

The fact is that the numbers are definitely up from where they were just a few months ago. But they're not up so much, still. I mean even if they keep putting up 60% for the rest of the life of the game, that's still not great for a flagship product. Now that things are trending up, though, the question is where they end up stabilizing. Can they get the new review rate at a high enough level that the overall rating of the game will ever tick over to the "mostly positive" category, or is it doomed to forever be mixed? Can they even get a relatively decent sample where the new reviews are mostly positive?

 

[Smegger213]

All figures are always changing all the time. People seem to be posting new reviews daily. There is no threshold, no cutoff, that affects "accuracy" here. The stats are accurate as and when people post them, and one second later they're out of date.

There are no full or final figures to wait for (at least, until people stop reviewing the game at all). It's a poor standard to try and aim for.

Like I said, if you want to post your calculated scores, then do that. But you don't ever seem to do it, without someone else posting first. Your own personal threshold for accuracy does not automatically guarantee accuracy. It's just the cutoff you've decided makes the most sense. Which is probably why all of this keeps going around in circles.

Which is why I said its pointless counting weeks of reviews etc. Yet there are those that keep saying things like "4 weeks of over 60% positive" etc.

 

[Gorbles]

Which is why I said its pointless counting weeks of reviews etc. Yet there are those that keep saying things like "4 weeks of over 60% positive" etc.

You think it's pointless. Why does it matter to you, so much, that people post about it then?

 

[Bug Repellent]

I do not share the optimism of some of you display, but I'm not dismissing it either. Maybe you're right and I'm too negative.

All the work done in the last 3 months has resulted in a minor boost in reviews (good news) and short lived small boosts in player count when a new patch/content was released. But civ fans simply refuse to ditch earlier versions for Civ7, as the 3mo player count graph shows. Neither Civ5 or Civ6 have decreasing player counts in recent months. Worse, w/o promotions, Civ7 barely sells 2.7k copies a week. Far too low to keep Firaxis afloat. I know Firaxis is working hard to fix Civ7's poor reception, but by and large, it isn't working in any meaningful way. They have yet to find a solution as the player count has more or less flatlined. Will they fix it eventually? Perhaps. But there are no signs as far as I can see that the game's fortunes are trending up in any meaningful way. Maybe if they find a solution to civ switching, age transitions and the horrible urban sprawl. Or something else.

For me, until I see Civ5's and Civ6's numbers trend slowly down and Civ7's trending up, Civ7 remains a troubled release, unfortunately.

 

[uppi]

The game isn't going to live or die whether it's 56% instead of 60%, or 58% instead of 56% either.

The fact is that the numbers are definitely up from where they were just a few months ago. But they're not up so much, still. I mean even if they keep putting up 60% for the rest of the life of the game, that's still not great for a flagship product. Now that things are trending up, though, the question is where they end up stabilizing. Can they get the new review rate at a high enough level that the overall rating of the game will ever tick over to the "mostly positive" category, or is it doomed to forever be mixed? Can they even get a relatively decent sample where the new reviews are mostly positive?

Yeah, even if reviews were 90% positive (from which they are a long way off), it would take new reviews at the current rate roughly 3 years until they would move the game into Mostly Positive territory. Though, it is probably too early to speculate whether the game will ever get there until the recent reviews themselves are not at least into Mostly Positive.