I loved playing Odyssey and Valhalla but after purchasing Shadows and playing for right at 2 hrs, i got a refund. It's sales have been good but i didn't like it.
As I see it, he believes Civ 7 is commercially viable. There is a large 1M+ customer base and if they can cross the death valley, they will be good.
I don’t know about this part. I mean if you look at Civ 6, with its almost ten year life span, we actually received relatively very little DLC content when compared to other games in the industry (looking at you, Sims 4).
I think it depends on how they want to do it. I think it's clear that a Civ 7 2.0 type of update is necessary. If they get that out this year, or early 2026, I think that buys them until 2027 for a major expansion. If not, I think they need to get that expansion out mid-2026. I just don't see how you can justify an additional two years of development with little/no new revenue on a game with this level of negativity surrounding it.
The first offerings of DLC for VI were civilization packs, similar to what we’ve seen so far for VII. I’m sure they can try to sell smaller assets like this while we wait for a full EP.
Yeah, I don't see small packs working with the game as it is. The audience for that will be around what their current daily playercount is, which wouldn't bring in a significant amount of revenue.
I'm curious: how large do you estimate the current player base of civ 7 and thus the potential dlc sales? 10k? 50k? 100k? 200k? I assume there will be a sale before RtR drops as well, enlarging that player base. Playertracker estimates 115k active players currently, which is of course much less than the 1.1m for civ VI.
According to SteamDB, around 1 million bought the game. Of those, about 50% have a positive review of the game. If we then assume that every single one of those ~500000 purchase the DLC for $30, that’s just $15 million in revenue (and that’s without taking out Valve’s cut, along without adjusting for different currencies). That is the most generous possible estimate.
That's the number it shows since the release. It's likely the number was approximated from the original number of simultaneous players. It doesn't (and can't if it's really based on this data) include any sales after release. Not to mention the whole approximation is not really precise, which SteamDB states clearly with their wide margin of error.
It's 50% of those who left the review (something 20K+), not of those who buy the game. It's not a random sample as people need strong stimulus to leave a review (or write on forums), so it's hard to say how many people of those who bought the game actually like it. Could be anything between around 20-80%.
DLC not only sales itself, it also sales base game, especially if timed with discounts, which it usually does. Another thing is that many people already purchased this DLC as part of founder's edition.
Nationwide opinion polls are done with smaller samples sizes. I feel very comfortable using 40K reviews to extrapolate an overall impression.
Opinion polls use random sampling, so they are representative. People who took effort to write reviews are far from random selection.
Ok, and? And people choosing to buy a game or not is not random selection either. I didn’t even address your claim that Steam sales somehow make up less than half of Civ 7’s sales. Sorry, there just isn’t evidence to support that.
A really big civ pack might move the needle, one that 1) allowed players to play "the same" civilization through all three ages the way they can presently can for China and India, and 2) meant that you don't meet the same cluster of opponents all the time. That would be almost tantamount to an undo of the feature of the game to which the largest number of people seem to object.
Sure that’s a valid point that I didn’t consider. How many civs would they need to do at once? 20-30?
Ok, statistics is one of the areas I do profesionally, especially analyzing users. One of the biggest things is that people with negative experience are way more likely to leave negative review than those who have positive experience. Having 50% positive reviews from 1% of users usually means positive experience for about 80% of the total users.
Let's say 14: seven more civs that you can play through the whole arc of human history.
