POLL: Newton's or ToE? With FREE or SABER?

[Paul#42]

Option A I just ruled out...
Unless somebody beats us to Newton's...

I will come up with a calculation how quickly we can do Scientific Method and ToE in The Chamber and at which costs...

We got 5 towns larger than 7 (apart from our wonder towns). That allows to draft 5 rifles = 100 shields.
We got ~60 shields in, disband 5 rifles to ~160, cash-rush to bank (200) for 160g, disband a horse to 207 and get the factory in #162.

In #162 we need 160 shields. The Chamber already does some 50spt.
If we take our time we will build it in two with 3 rifles disbanded. Get it in #164.

In #164 we start ToE prebuild (Universal Suffrage?).
If FREE uses their prebuild for it (They might look at the F7 screen...), we have a problem...

 

[Niklas]

I'll have a look at the save.

Another thing to consider (which to best effect should have been done before the save went off) is that we could send SABER Nationalism right away, allowing them to draft-disband for the factory and plant. I guess it's too late now though.

 

[donsig]

Yes, first thing we must do is figure out whether we can build ToE faster than SABER. But we also have to figure in how long it will take FREE to research scientific method on their own. This latter part is especially important if we can convince FREE to start on replaceable parts. Probably not likely - and probably also not likely that we can hide this gambit from FREE if they pay attention to tech costs.

As for the gold we certainly should not pay the full price for them to position themselves to build ToE. We should also lay claim to half of any gold they generate while shutting off research while ToE completes. Let's not let them drive too hard a bargain. I'm not at all sympathetic about their pleas regarding nationalism and electricity.

BTW, raising 1000g will mean shutting off research, won't it? Even if we only agree to pay for half we'll still have to raise the whole amount or else SABER will have to slow research of scientific method.

 

[Niklas]

Alright, I had a look at the save. We can get The Chamber to 70 spt, which means ToE in 9. Assuming we rush factory next turn (161) and coal plant on the turn after (162), that means we start ToE on turn 163, finishing in on turn 173, just like SABER. That's the fastest we could possibly do it, and our costs would exceed 1000 gp.

 

[Paul#42]

Yes it is too late to send Nationalism. I had thought of it myself but I did not anticipate such a resistance by SABER.

I just thought about building both ToE and Hoover in The Treasury. Can it do 40spt? It's 28spt right now but not all tiles are railed...

If we build one of those in The Chamber and FREE takes away our prebuild (just US), we are dust. Draft-rushing fact & plant in both towns kills our cash flow.

 

[Niklas]

In response to donsig - we already have most of those 500, but yes we would have to shut down research next turn. But the research time to SciMeth shouldn't be a problem, assuming we get Electricity from FREE in reasonable time.

The problem is that if FREE goes for SciMeth after Electricity, there's really no way we can beat them, is there? And if they have a prebuild already running, it's probably calculated to complete once they get SciMeth. That's most certainly within 13 turns from now.

 

[Paul#42]

The problem is that if FREE goes for SciMeth after Electricity, there's really no way we can beat them, is there? And if they have a prebuild already running, it's probably calculated to complete once they get SciMeth. That's most certainly within 13 turns from now.

They have to get Medicine first. It will get even cheaper if we do the SM research because both teams would have it.

They won't be able to run 100% science and they lack the scientific wonders. We should be quicker if SABER provides some cash. I think 13 turns is realistic. Might be 12, though

To get the wonder is the tougher part. Factory from the scratch, a couple of mines and some rails to lay for The Treasury...

I guess we'll have some time to plan and calculate.

 

[Niklas]

There's no way The Treasury could complete ToE faster than 13 turns. It could run at max 34 shields before factory and plant, and that's at -2 fpt, which we couldn't keep up. But even if we could, it would be 13 turns. So better then to let SABER do it, if we think we have a reasonable chance. I admit I forgot about Medicine - that most certainly gives us the chance.

SABER should research SM of course, and give us Medicine when they are done.

 

[Paul#42]

If we sent Nationalism along with Industrialization next turn, nothing is lost. They couldn't finish the factory earlier if I had sent Nats this turn.

Did they already consider drafting? Maybe they need less money - just a compensation lost people and happiness.

We could try to take more research load in the SCIAA. Especially the smaller techs...

 

[General_W]

Whew – good discussion going on here.

What about if we offer Saber 500 gold – and then go ahead and offer that we think we might be able to do the ToE in 13 turns also, but our gold costs would be more than 500 gold… therefore we're willing to do it if Saber supplies 600 gold.
However, we still think it would be best for Saber to do it, because that means we can avoid getting Medicine and Scientific Method longer, giving us more latitude in delaying FREE and keeping the research costs as high as possible for FREE.

Here's what that draft letter would look like:

Dear Saber Friends,

First of all, let me offer the sincere apology of The Council for the unbalanced nature of our previous proposal. This may sound contrived, but in all the hectic activity of trying to put a proposal together, it was a legitimate mistake on our part to try to count beakers we weren't actually going to be putting out. You were absolutely right to reject our initial distribution as unfair.

We believe we've got a much better start this time. Here's what we're thinking:
II. Technology Plan – Version 2

• Team Saber and The Council agree to cooperate to get into the Modern Era as rapidly as possible.
• Both teams agree to not execute a "slow burn" in getting technologies slower in favor of stockpiling gold, unless explicitly approved by the other team.
• Both teams pledge to do their level best to not undermine the alliance in rapid advancement of knowledge.
• The following Technology Balance agreement may only be modified by joint agreement of the teams.

Technology Balance

Team SABER

• Military Tradition (1920)
• Medicine (3000)
• Scientific Method (3000)
• Refining (4800)
• Replaceable Parts (4200)
• Mass Production (4200)
• Amphibious War (3600)
• Atomic Theory (ToE)
• Electronics (ToE) [Council will do if ToE is missed]

Team Saber Total Beakers = 24,720


The Council

• Nationalism (bonus)
• Electricity (trade)
• Industrialization (3600)
• Corporation (3000)
• Steel (4200)
• Combustion (4800)
• Flight (5400)
• Motorized Transport (4200)
• Sanitation (2700)

Council Total Beakers = 27,900

* Then exchange Modern Age bonus techs without regard to beaker value
​

In addition, it's our understanding that Team Saber will require around 1,000 gold for rushing the necessary infrastructure to get the ToE and Scientific Method in time.
The Council therefore agrees to pay half of that amount - 500 gold (as rapidly as realistically possible) - to help defray this cost and give Team Saber a leg up on rapid industrialization.

Note: our initial estimates show that we could also possibly get the ToE done in 13 turns (turn 173) but our gold costs would be higher… about 1200. In the spirit of "turn-about-is-fair-play," we'd be willing to take on the burden of building the ToE for 600 gold from you. However, we still think it would be best for you to go after the ToE, because you'd apparently be more efficient, The Council would be able to avoid getting Medicine and Scientific Method a couple turns longer, which would give us more latitude in delaying FREE, and also help to keep the research costs on those techs as high as possible for FREE.


The above section would simply replace the relevant parts of Article II in the draft SCIAA agreement we sent earlier.
We'd also have to add some language for at least a partial gold refund if our ToE gambit fails… as that will also guarantee that FREE will be the ones building Hoover.

Again, we apologize for the egregious error in our first draft proposal.
We hope this is far more palatable to your team.
Let us know as soon as possible!

Your Friends (and still hopeful Allies)

General_W, speaking with the voice of The Council

How's that looking?
I think we really really really want to get something to Saber before they play the save.

EDIT: Oh, and I sent this quick note to Chamnix:
Just wanted to let you know that we've got a letter nearly ready to send (at least I hope!) - so hopefully you're ok with holding the save till you've read it. We just didn't want to delay the save any longer so FREE wouldn't get suspicious.

 

[Niklas]

I'm fine with it. Send her off!

 

[donsig]

Is it right to ask for a partial refund if we miss ToE? If I were SABER and we missed the wonder (and possibly ended up wasting lots of shields) what rationale would I use to justify refunding the Council a pile of gold (when their hare-brained scheme backfired)? I'm not so sure it's a good idea to bring that up. If you're saying the Council would lose out on Hoover while still carrying a heavier beaker load and should be compensated in gold that's one thing - but the word refund doesn't lead the reader in that direction.

We should include language that if SABER shuts off research for some turns while ToE finishes (and rakes in lots of gold) they should split that windfall with us.

 

[General_W]

Letter back from Chamnix:

Hi General,

Sorry I wasn't around tonight - I really meant to be, but something came up. Anyway, it looks like we are moving in a good direction - I can wait to play until we get your letter, and I will try to be available tomorrow if dutchfire can't.

Chamnix

So that’s good

@Donsig – that’s a good point, I guess hadn’t really thought the refund idea all the way through.
I think the best plan is to just delete that line altogether.

I don’t think we need new language about stockpiling gold, as that’s already covered under Article II, point 2.

Here’s version 2:

Dear Saber Friends,

First of all, let me offer the sincere apology of The Council for the unbalanced nature of our previous proposal. This may sound contrived, but in all the hectic activity of trying to put a proposal together, it was a legitimate mistake on our part to try to count beakers we weren't actually going to be putting out. You were absolutely right to reject our initial distribution as unfair.

We believe we've got a much better start this time. Here's what we're thinking:
II. Technology Plan – Version 2

• Team Saber and The Council agree to cooperate to get into the Modern Era as rapidly as possible.
• Both teams agree to not execute a "slow burn" in getting technologies slower in favor of stockpiling gold, unless explicitly approved by the other team.
• Both teams pledge to do their level best to not undermine the alliance in rapid advancement of knowledge.
• The following Technology Balance agreement may only be modified by joint agreement of the teams.

Technology Balance

Team SABER

• Military Tradition (1920)
• Medicine (3000)
• Scientific Method (3000)
• Refining (4800)
• Replaceable Parts (4200)
• Mass Production (4200)
• Amphibious War (3600)
• Atomic Theory (ToE)
• Electronics (ToE) [Council will do if ToE is missed]

Team Saber Total Beakers = 24,720


The Council

• Nationalism (bonus)
• Electricity (trade)
• Industrialization (3600)
• Corporation (3000)
• Steel (4200)
• Combustion (4800)
• Flight (5400)
• Motorized Transport (4200)
• Sanitation (2700)

Council Total Beakers = 27,900

* Then exchange Modern Age bonus techs without regard to beaker value
​

In addition, it's our understanding that Team Saber will require around 1,000 gold for rushing the necessary infrastructure to get the ToE and Scientific Method in time.
The Council therefore agrees to pay half of that amount - 500 gold (as rapidly as realistically possible) - to help defray this cost and give Team Saber a leg up on rapid industrialization.

Note: our initial estimates show that we could also possibly get the ToE done in 13 turns (turn 173) but our gold costs would be higher… about 1200. In the spirit of "turn-about-is-fair-play," we'd be willing to take on the burden of building the ToE if you send us half of whatever our gold costs turn out to be. However, we still think it would be best for you to go after the ToE, because you'd apparently be more efficient, The Council would be able to avoid getting Medicine and Scientific Method a couple turns longer, which would give us more latitude in delaying FREE, and also help to keep the research costs on those techs as high as possible for FREE.


The above section would simply replace the relevant parts of Article II in the draft SCIAA agreement we sent earlier.
Again, we apologize for the egregious error in our first draft proposal.
We hope this is far more palatable to your team.
Let us know as soon as possible!

Your Friends (and still hopeful Allies)

General_W, speaking with the voice of The Council

EDIT: SENT!


So far it’s Niklas and me voting to send it.
Others in favor or opposed?

 

[tomasjj]

Good text that.

 

[donsig]

I don’t think we need new language about stockpiling gold, as that’s already covered under Article II, point 2.

Are you suggesting SABER should be researching atomic theory at max speed while trying to get it free via ToE? That's a waste. My experience has been that once you know ToE is due and you can't research a needed tech before it completes you queue up atomic theory and turn off research. Might only be a turn or two but that could be a few hundred gold. I understand the clause you mention would allow us to negotiate this when the time comes but I think it makes sense to include it up front in this agreement which revolves around building ToE. I think if we don't mention it now they will argue that they should keep any gold they make this way.

 

[Niklas]

Should we share with them any gold that we build up on 0% while waiting for a max run? I don't see why we should get a share of what they get, like General_W says article II already covers this. They may build up gold for a few turns, but we'd expect them to spend it on faster research on the turns that follow.

 

[General_W]

Exactly Niklas.
There's a fair ammount of good faith required by any agreement like this. I think it would come across as heavy-handed if we try to legislate something that specific.

So - that's now 3 in favor, 1 almost in favor , and 0 opposed so far.
I'll wait a few more hours before sending.

Anyone else want to speak up?

 

[General_W]

Got this note from Chamnix:

Hail Councillors!

I just wanted to check if you wanted us to keep holding the save. I know General_W mentioned you would be sending us a letter soon and asked us to hold the save until we read it. He also mentioned that you sent us the save because you didn't want FREE to get suspicious by your holding onto it any longer – I was thinking that it might make FREE more suspicious if Saber now also needed an extension.

I can't think of anything Saber would be doing differently on this particular turn regardless of the details of our future cooperation. Let me know if you think we should continue to hold the save.

Thanks,

Chamnix

So I sent this back:

Chamnix,

I’m still waiting for a just a couple more votes on our letter – I think our activity dropped off a bit for the weekend - if no one else speaks up in the next few hours, I’ll go ahead and send the letter.

However – if you think you wouldn’t do anything different even if you were to agree (or not) to rushing the Theory of Evolution – then I suppose there’s no real reason to hold up the save.

I’ll get back to you as soon as I can!

- General_W

Any more votes?

 

[peter grimes]

Did I vote yet?

Damn the Frees! Full Saber ahead!!

 

[Aigburth]

looks good to me