Predicting trades for Alphabet?

[DaveShack]

The next play session will be short, unless we do some advance planning. We will discover Alphabet, and this will open up trade opportunities. We can approach this the traditional way, stopping play so that the preferred deal can be chosen by the citizens.

I'd like us to consider an alternative. We could choose which potential trading partner we prefer, and put limits on what trades we'll accept, what ones need further discussion, and what ones we don't want to make. Then the DP can look at the situation, and follow the guidelines.

So, who do we want to trade with? Who do we want to avoid trading with?

What techs do we want to hold without trading. Alphabet for the obvious reason? Any others?

How far do we want to let the DP go? Accept trades which are within 20 beakers +/- of being equal? 50 or 100 beakers? A wider mark? Nothing where we lose value?

Do we still want to stop play anyway, even if the trade picture is a "no-brainer"?

 

[fed1943]

I don't think possible to tell ahead what to do about this situation.

As general guide I would say the best possible global trades, even if measured
one by one looks unbalanced against us.

So,it is to trust DP (my choice) or to stop game.

Best regards,

 

[NKVD]

i'm saying to myself there always just one best trade. I'm ready to give the DP all the powers for that matter.

 

[dutchfire]

I'd say we accept every possible trade that gives us a tech, unless it involves giving Alphabet away. We should be somewhat cautious with Alphabet.

 

[grant2004]

We should avoid trading alphabet because it makes us the middle man in tech trading, as long as we are the only nation with alphabet all techs must pass through our libraries (once we build some that is).

I believe it will be important for citizens to discuss the trades we are going to make, they will be very important for the development of our nation. While I trust the DP we have on deck as a good citizen, I don't think decisions that large should fall under the responsibility of the DP. Therefore I support a short 7 turn turnchat.

 

[Methos]

How far do we want to let the DP go? Accept trades which are within 20 beakers +/- of being equal? 50 or 100 beakers? A wider mark? Nothing where we lose value?

Do we still want to stop play anyway, even if the trade picture is a "no-brainer"?

I don't like giving the full responsibility of tech trading solely to the DP. I feel we should stop the turnchat once Alphabet is complete and bring it up for discussion.

i'm saying to myself there always just one best trade. I'm ready to give the DP all the powers for that matter.

I disagree. I don't like the thought of allowing the DP full powers to do as they choose. It's not that I don't trust them (or in this case, myself), but feel such decisions should be left up to discussion by the citizens.

The biggest problem at this point is the number of trades that will be available. I don't see how we're going to be able to discuss and poll every optiont, but I still feel try. Let the people decide.

Disclaimer: By the above I am not saying I don't trust or feel confident in the current DP, nor do I question his ability at making that decision. After all, if I did, what would I be saying about myself?

 

[Methos]

Looks like I'm already questioning myself....

One thing we need to remember is that it could take several turns to complete trades, so it might be wise to do the initial trades this upcoming turnset and the next trades on the next DP's turnset.

Just a thought...

 

[DaveShack]

We can still consider conditional instructions. For example if we can get two techs in total for writing, then do so, advance the turn, and then see what trades are now available. Stop if anything other than a trade for alphabet opens up, continue if all we have is alphabet because we don't want to trade it. Instructions like this would let us proceed if obviously good trades are available, and stop if/when the decision is difficult.

It would still be the citizens deciding what trades, just making that decision in advance in the form of guidelines instead of waiting to see the details first.

 

[fed1943]

First, a big salut to Methos: that is called honesty and coherence, to follow the "rules" you believe, even when they are "against" you.

About the game: I say again it is impossible to post reasonable instructions

right now; please let me try to tell why. The question is not "the best trade",

but "the best trades". We must try to trade our same tech (let us say writing)

for 3/4/5/6 techs from several AI civs.

Has someone else alphabet? If not, then trade first with the behind ones to

open better techs to trade next turn with the more wises. But, if other also

has alpha, then trade the way not to open new trades among them.

The beakers value of the trade techs is far from being the most relevant.

And all this is just a "techs thought" put aside diplomatic considerations.

With all this, and more, is there someone who knows to tell ahead what to

do? If yes, go on. I can tell you I do not.

Best regards,

 

[grant2004]

We can't even see exactly what techs the AI have yet, conditional instructions would have to deal with large amounts of possibilities, and thus I don't believe they can be constructed to suit the citizen's desires in all cases. We would be best stopping after alphabet, and then making a reasonable decision with all the information before us.

 

[ordinaryguy]

I say that once the alphabet is researched, the DP should enter turn ONCE more. Why? To see what our neighbours are willing to trade. Otherwise, our predictions wouldn't be of much use.

Upon knowing the techs we can trade for for that turn, we could then discuss deals to be made with the AI. We should try as much as possible to trade the same tech(s) to each AI we trade with. This is to prevent the AIs from trading among themselves (once they get Alphabet).

Lastly, we should trade "upwards", from the backward AI up to the tech leader.

Edit: Ops, crosspost with some people

 

[Methos]

I say that once the alphabet is researched, the DP should enter turn ONCE more. Why? To see what our neighbours are willing to trade. Otherwise, our predictions wouldn't be of much use.

This isn't needed. When the game asks you to pick the next tech, click the big picture (forgot what it was called, but it takes you to F6) and than go to your F4 screen. You can check tech trades immediately and make trades prior to picking your next tech.

 

[dutchfire]

Or you can just pick any next tech, look at F4, save, discuss, load the game again, and then pick the tech you want, as there won't be any beakers invested yet.

 

[DaveShack]

Exactly, the "using the big picture to switch stuff" exploit isn't needed any more in Civ4.

 

[Bertie]

A lot of the rationale behind going for Alphabet was to use it to trade for the religious techs and then research COL (so we’d be first to Confucianism). If these trades are available I think we should go for them at whatever cost short of trading Alphabet itself. Even if we overpay for a tech or two, if this tactic allows us to be first to COL it’s well worth it.

If the majority wants to stop play after we research Alphabet to discuss individual trades, that’s fine by me. However, if we are in a position to trade for the religious techs, this means we may have a couple of one-turn sessions ahead of us (to discuss the trade for Mysticism; then to discuss the trade for Meditation or Polytheism; finally to discuss the trade for Priesthood if it's available). If we aren’t in a position to trade for the religious techs – if no one has them or is willing to trade them – then all bets are off and of course we need to rethink our strategy.

 

[grant2004]

well we know one of our neighbors has founded buddhism, so we can be certain two of the religious techs are out there, the thing we'll have to be careful with is making sure that we play the techs of the AIs off against each other, we need to act as a middle man, trade for techs with one AI, and use those techs to get different technology from another civ.

 

[ordinaryguy]

well we know one of our neighbors has founded buddhism, so we can be certain two of the religious techs are out there, the thing we'll have to be careful with is making sure that we play the techs of the AIs off against each other, we need to act as a middle man, trade for techs with one AI, and use those techs to get different technology from another civ.

Hmm I never thought about that. I'm still a noob who trades blindly with any AI I can in my games!

 

[grant2004]

Well, rather than starting a new thread, I guess we should start thinking about our tech trades here.

The best trade to me looks to be Alphabet to Cesar for Archery, Fishing, and Masonry. I doubt he has better relations than us with the other AIs so I don't think he'll be able to get anything out of them for alphabet, so if we keep looking back at the trade window every turn we might be able to see an opportunity to trade alphabet to Bismark of Napoleon later on. Pottery might also be useful for a later trade with Cesar, but that's far from clear.

 

[ordinaryguy]

Well, rather than starting a new thread, I guess we should start thinking about our tech trades here.

The best trade to me looks to be Alphabet to Cesar for Archery, Fishing, and Masonry. I doubt he has better relations than us with the other AIs so I don't think he'll be able to get anything out of them for alphabet, so if we keep looking back at the trade window every turn we might be able to see an opportunity to trade alphabet to Bismark of Napoleon later on. Pottery might also be useful for a later trade with Cesar, but that's far from clear.

I suggest that we keep Alphabet only to ourselves and not trade it to anyone. We have a monopoly on it after all! We could trade pottery for archery with someone and then trade pottery to get fishing with another AI. We get the best of two worlds without having to give up alphabet.

Masonry could be obtained at another window of opportunity later.

 

[Methos]

To make the discussion easier to find, I posted this thread:

900 BC Trade Options