Referendum on Scottish Independence

[Arwon]

The GDP PPP per capita in that report is 77 for Portugal and 80 for Greece. Scotland has 98. This is a scary difference.

Spain has a large economy with unequal economic performance between regions. The four region in Scotland have 98, 89, 159, and 80. The 7 regions in Spain have 89, 121, 126, 83, 101, 74. Mismanagement could mean Scotland ends up in the 74-89 range.

My point is big parts of the UK are already in pretty low range so if this is your big scarymonsters thing it's a big scarymonsters thing in the UK already. The Northeast is already Portugal. Wales looks even worse. And yet the assumption remains that the UK is just better at things. I'm not seeing that.

 

[Alassius]

Plus I tend to just be skeptical of most doomy economic claims within the already rich world. At the end of the day people have needs and that creates services and goods demand, and then governments use taxes to create legal stability and meet other needs and economies just kind of happen with a base level of comfort and prosperity as a result, and within the already rich world everywhere is pretty similar really. Even if Lisbon is richer than Lancashire and whatnot.

Being skeptical is fine. I don't believe in total doom either. But, the SNP is selling independence as Scandinavian socialist paradise, not Portugal. Lots of people are buying into that. They'll be very surprised when they open the box and find Lisbon.

 

[Arwon]

But Lisbon is a much nicer place than the UK or Norway anyway. I think we're all forgetting this.

Unfortunately, I guess Scotland can't stop being at the cold end of a dank wet island with rubbish food.

 

[Alassius]

My point is big parts of the UK are already in pretty low range so if this is your big scarymonsters thing it's a big scarymonsters thing in the UK already. The Northeast is already Portugal. Wales looks even worse. And yet the assumption remains that the UK is just better at things. I'm not seeing that.

The richer parts of the UK are richer than the richest parts of Spain. They prop up the Northeast and Wales.

Scotland doesn't need propping up now. If they go independent, they could start needing, but the UK wouldn't be around any more.

 

[Mise]

I'm just saying I don't understand why I haven't more people say let them go for the budget savings. There doesn't seem to be much downside and "we need Scotland as ballast against the tides of international economics" isn't an argument I've heard much either.

Plus I tend to just be skeptical of most doomy economic claims within the already rich world. At the end of the day people have needs and that creates services and goods demand, and then governments use taxes to create legal stability and meet other needs and economies just kind of happen with a base level of comfort and prosperity as a result, and within the already rich world everywhere is pretty similar really. Even if Lisbon is richer than Lancashire and whatnot.

Well, anecdotally, there's loads of people at work and on my facebook who are saying "let's get rid of the Scots, it will save us loads of money, the poor begging drug addicted bastards". Those people are stupid and wrong.

Again, Scotland isn't the ballast. Oil (plus related oil services industries, plus other energy industries) and banking are important components in a diversified British economy; the UK's economy is stronger and more diversified for having Scotland in it. People haven't been making this argument because it's an argument for why English people would be worse off without Scotland. But we don't need to convince English people that we need Scotland: we need to convince Scotland that they're better off as part of the UK. Which is why people have focussed on how imbalanced the Scottish economy would be as an independent state. It's a major theme in the economic argument against independence.

 

[Arwon]

The richer parts of the UK are richer than the richest parts of Spain. They prop up the Northeast and Wales.

Scotland doesn't need propping up now. If they go independent, they could start needing, but the UK wouldn't be around any more.

Do they prop those areas up, or do top level legislative policies and monetary policy and exchange rates and the like favour south eastern economic interests at the expense of others? Or is reality messy and complex?

 

[really]

First of all, can I take this as an admission that nothing I've said implies that the UK "props up" Scotland?

Secondly, we benefit from diversifying our economy too. There is a big difference between being dependent on oil, and having access to oil within our borders. Not only for the extra revenue it brings to the economy, but also for energy security. A volatile source of tax revenues is dangerous in a small economy dependent only on that source, but is a big plus in a large, diversified economy.

Again, I know you understand this. Why are you pretending that you don't? Or am I giving you too much credit? Should I be downgrading your credit rating?

I am a bit concerned that an independent Scotland could fall victim to the Dutch Disease in the medium term.

Would it be an argument for Sterlingisation or adopting the Euro over an independent currency - using an international currency could mitigate some the risk of the domestic economy being displaced by resource extraction.

 

[Peck of Arabia]

From Wikipedia

the Dutch disease is the apparent relationship between the increase in the economic development of natural resources and a decline in the manufacturing sector

What manufacturing sector? I thought Mrs Thatcher did for that

 

[Mise]

From Wikipedia


What manufacturing sector? I thought Mrs Thatcher did for that

More generally, it's just that primary/extraction industries such as oil crowd out investment in other industries, drive up exchange rates, and prevent other industries (esp. export industries) from developing, locking the country into resource dependence and preventing diversification.

 

[Alassius]

Do they prop those areas up, or do top level legislative policies and monetary policy and exchange rates and the like favour south eastern economic interests at the expense of others? Or is reality messy and complex?

Of course that's possible. But everything has a cost, and being independent could well bring in more costs and not necessarily solve the problems.

And it will be even worse for Scotland. Since Scotland is not doing too badly compared to England, UK policies are not that wrong for Scotland. In turn, an independent Scotland will not be able to find much better policies, even if it has an omniscient government, which the SNP is not.

 

[ParkCungHee]

You know, if you took this "pooled risk" argument seriously, it still would be in the Scots best interest to seek independence as a means of unification with a larger state.

Unless the UK is conveniently just the optimal size for pooling risk.

 

[Mise]

You know, if you took this "pooled risk" argument seriously, it still would be in the Scots best interest to seek independence as a means of unification with a larger state.

Unless the UK is conveniently just the optimal size for pooling risk.

It's a good argument for EU federalism, sure.

 

[Arwon]

Of course that's possible. But everything has a cost, and being independent could well bring in more costs and not necessarily solve the problems.

And it will be even worse for Scotland. Since Scotland is not doing too badly compared to England, UK policies are not that wrong for Scotland. In turn, an independent Scotland will not be able to find much better policies, even if it has an omniscient government.

Which brings me back to my original thesis that everything is about as likely to fine whether run from London or [is Edinburgh the capital?] since they both have dumb politicians and mismanagement and so the economic question basically doesn't matter so let's go back to discussing different philosophies of identity formation and how they relate to theories of sovereignty.

 

[Alassius]

You know, if you took this "pooled risk" argument seriously, it still would be in the Scots best interest to seek independence as a means of unification with a larger state.

Unless the UK is conveniently just the optimal size for pooling risk.

It actually could well be. Big enough to be diversed. Small enough to be politically efficient, unlike the EU.

 

[Arwon]

You know, if you took this "pooled risk" argument seriously, it still would be in the Scots best interest to seek independence as a means of unification with a larger state.

Unless the UK is conveniently just the optimal size for pooling risk.

oh hey

It's a good argument for EU federalism, sure.

When are you guys all going to start giving up fiscal autonomy though?

 

[bhsup]

You know, if you took this "pooled risk" argument seriously, it still would be in the Scots best interest to seek independence as a means of unification with a larger state.

Unless the UK is conveniently just the optimal size for pooling risk.

Bigger is better.

I just want to throw this out there, again, for consideration by our noble Scottish friends if they do indeed vote to secede from the UK.

New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.

In case you guys start feeling lonely after a while, ya know?

 

[ParkCungHee]

It's a good argument for EU federalism, sure.

Which in itself is a good argument for Independence.

 

[Mise]

oh hey



When are you guys all going to start giving up fiscal autonomy though?

I don't know, when everyone just starts listening to me I suppose Nationalism sure is a b* though right? Would be a lot easier without everyone demanding control over their own fiscal policy.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Edit: NM, didn't read the whole post.

 

[Arwon]

Which in itself is a good argument for Independence.

Indeed, a less diversified and ballasted rump UK might find itself more willing to engage in real cession of independence to the Euroleviathan.