Rich nations ignoring power shift

[Norseone]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7006172.stm

Spoiler :

Rich nations 'ignore' power shift
Workers assemble motorcycle at a factory in China
Manufacturing in China has been the main driver of economic growth
Rich nations are failing to adjust to the rapid rise of emerging economies, a former World Bank boss has warned.

The developed world has not yet fully grasped that economic power is moving eastward and what the implications of that will be, said James Wolfensohn.

He predicted that China will grab the crown from the US as the world's richest country by 2040, with India close behind.

Yet, these countries were still treated with a "colonial" attitude, he said.

"The leadership in the developed world, and people who should know better, still have not adjusted to the fact that this is not just a modest change in global economic power and influence, but a tectonic shift," Mr Wolfensohn said.

"If you look at the developed world and how it is addressing this change, the steps that are being taken are relatively trivial."

'Tectonic shift'

Speaking at a gathering of high-profile financiers in Hong Kong to discuss developments in Asia's financial markets, he noted that there were already signs that power had begun to seep away from today's economic leaders of the US and Europe.

One sign was the fact that African politicians and businessmen now engage directly with China and India, bypassing Western nations, he added.

With Asian countries poised to account for the bulk of global growth by 2050, compared with 10% in 1950, Mr Wolfensohn called on the Western world to focus more on understanding the region's culture and learning to speak its languages.

He also underlined a growing need to appreciate social responsibility in these developing countries, where the break-neck speed of economic growth has largely been driven by an exports boom that relies on an underpaid labour force.

James Wolfensohn was president of the World Bank for 10 years until the beginning of 2005.

What do our local economists think of this? Personally I think the mismanaging of things in China will eventually slow its growth...not to mention that it really has a population that is aging to the degree of Europe's or will soon. India...thats the country that I think could actually become the largest economy eventually. Though I doubt either one will beat the USA. And there is no question, neither of those countries will be anywhere near the per capita income of the west for ages and ages.

 

[Integral]

What do our local economists think of this? Personally I think the mismanaging of things in China will eventually slow its growth...not to mention that it really has a population that is aging to the degree of Europe's or will soon. India...thats the country that I think could actually become the largest economy eventually. Though I doubt either one will beat the USA. And there is no question, neither of those countries will be anywhere near the per capita income of the west for ages and ages.

I personally think that China's growth will slow somewhat in the next few years. 10% growth per year isn't sustainable; after a certain point, you just can't keep adding capital and expect the same returns.

IMHO, we're moving towards a somewhat multipolar world economically, with the US, EU, China, and India at the top of the heap. Although China may eventually beat out the US in sheer GDP PPP, the US still has one major advantage: innovation. Despite some "world is flat" claims, the sectors for innovation, scientific research, and patents are all still highly concentrated in the US, EU, and Japan.

-Integral

 

[Shadylookin]

I think china's growth will slow once they start expecting higher wages and people move more of their manufacturing businesses to another poor country that will do it for cheaper. Eventually they are going to have to make the shift to a service economy.

 

[ArneHD]

Russia and Brazil seem ignored by everyone. Brazil in particular have good prospects, if they manage themselves well.

 

[Norseone]

Russia and Brazil seem ignored by everyone. Brazil in particular have good prospects, if they manage themselves well.

They just dont have the rapid growth and huge populations of the asian giants.

 

[mrt144]

russia may have resources but they are willing to alienate the rest of the world with their so called democracy and heavy handed diplomacy, despite not holding many cards.

 

[luiz]

Brazil is going down the drain, that's where we're going. Even Russia has a brighter future than us. Hell, even Mexico.

 

[Norseone]

Well in the long run humanity is going down the tubes unless we get off this rock soon.

 

[George2816]

russia may have resources but they are willing to alienate the rest of the world with their so called democracy and heavy handed diplomacy, despite not holding many cards.

Isn't that the same as the USA?

 

[Norseone]

USA doesn't alienate the WHOLE world. Just some of it.

 

[mrt144]

the USA also has cards to play with. Russia doesnt have as many.

 

[George2816]

the USA also has cards to play with. Russia doesnt have as many.

What do they have?? The "war on terror"?

Russia at least some some gas to play with!

USA doesn't alienate the WHOLE world. Just some of it.

Sure i'm stay waiting for McCain to go to Iraq without any body guards or armored cars (He said it was safe like 6 months ago!)

 

[Integral]

What do they have??

Nothing substantial...just 20% of world GDP, 50% of world military spending, and a significant fraction of total scientific and innovation output.

-Integral

 

[George2816]

Nothing substantial...just 20% of world GDP, 50% of world military spending, and a significant fraction of total scientific and innovation output.

-Integral

So? Just because they have alot of gdp or even military spending doesn't mean countries will bend to their will. Last i checked the military was already too thin to invade another country

 

[mrt144]

What do they have?? The "war on terror"?

Russia at least some some gas to play with!

Sure i'm stay waiting for McCain to go to Iraq without any body guards or armored cars (He said it was safe like 6 months ago!)

Youre saying natural gas means more than 20% of world gdp?

your overarching and overreaching disdain for the united states makes you look like a boob.

 

[Norseone]

They export lots of food and have lots of money.

 

[Integral]

So? Just because they have alot of gdp or even military spending doesn't mean countries will bend to their will. Last i checked the military was already too thin to invade another country

You asked what cards the US has. Those seem to be pretty significant cards. Yes, the military is quite bogged down by foreign misadventures, but America's greatest strength is its economic power, not military (imo).

 

[Godwynn]

You asked what cards the US has. Those seem to be pretty significant cards. Yes, the military is quite bogged down by foreign misadventures, but America's greatest strength is its economic power, not military (imo).

George doesn't realize that the United States can still bomb the living hell out of most (if not all) countries on this planet. We don't need a ground invasion to cripple an enemy.

 

[George2816]

George doesn't realize that the United States can still bomb the living hell out of most (if not all) countries on this planet. We don't need a ground invasion to cripple an enemy.

You seem to to realize that if we do bomb all the countries no amount of GDP or miltary spending will save the US. And last time i checked "Terrorists" are harder to kill then an invasion force! (of course if we do bomb all countries on the planet normal people are going to be "Terrorists") BTW don't you think bombed people will back their gov't more then a than bombed gov't? (I'm talking about if we bomb iran[case and point saddam thought the minority would back him when he invaded in 1980's but he was dead wrong and the people backed the iran gov't more])

Youre saying natural gas means more than 20% of world gdp?

your overarching and overreaching disdain for the united states makes you look like a boob.

Yes i am. Without gas in the freezing winter people will die. (I'm saying that europe will bend more to russia than to the USA.)

 

[Red Door]

You seem to to realize that if we do bomb all the countries no amount of GDP or miltary spending will save the US. And last time i checked "Terrorists" are harder to kill then an invasion force!

I'd consider the wiping of all foreign nations off the planet of the Earth saving us from a now-extinct foreign invasion force attempting to retaliate. Oh wait, they can't because they'd be wiped off the Earth.