clapyourhands
Prince
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2017
- Messages
- 422
I don't think they'll neglect Africa this expansion; a new civ for the continent is definitely a possibility but they have so many mainstays that I think they'll bring back a returnee first. Of the previous African civs I think the Zulus are the least likely, since we not only have the Mongols but now Chandragupta as early/mid game warmongers; the same goes for Songhai for similar reasons.
Traditionally, Carthage has alway been in the first expansion, as it has been for Civs III-V. For this reason alone I'd say it's a likely bet for RnF; the only issue I see with it is that it traditionally is also a militaristic civ like the Mongols and Chandra, but even then it usually has a commercial bent to it as well that could easily distinguish it.
If not Carthage then Morocco and Mali also are possibilities for a commerce-leaning African civ, with Morocco also having some sort of religious component like in V. Ethiopia/Axum has the precedence of being in 2 previous games rather than 1 like the other two; on the other hand, VI seems to be pulling a number of civs absent from V like Khmer and Sumer, which kind of balances the two points out. So in terms of African representation, I would personally rank likelihood as follows:
Carthage > Mali = Ethiopia > Morocco > Zulu > Songhai
With 4 spots left I'd say the Ottomans and Inca (or Maya, but my personal bet is on the Inca) are fairly good bets. Carthage would be the most likely African civ, with Mali and Ethiopia not far behind. I do also think the last spot will be a European civ simply because there are a lot of fan favorites yet to return (...or be introduced). I don't see Portugal and the Netherlands in the same expansion since they're both colonial commercial civs. Italy and Georgia are both popular here, and while I won't put too much stock into such hopes, I won't rule them out either.
________
Conservatively estimating that Xpac-2 will also only introduce 8 civs, this would total 42 total civs; of these 6 are new (Kongo, Macedon, Nubia, Scythia, Australia, Cree, and not counting Norway). If each Xpac brought only 1 new civ so that Civ VI introduces 7 new civs total, this means there would be 35 returning civs (42 - 7) from previous entries. Further discounting Khmer and Sumer, this would be 33/43 civs returning from Civ V. This doesn't take into account the Sioux, Hittites, or Mali (or the HRE for that matter), but in essence it means that if both Xpacs are similar then Civ VI would cut 10 civs from V. I find this quite unlikely, as civ-cutting has never before happened on this scale between any iteration of the series. Civs are very rarely removed; in fact, before VI it has only happened 7 times in total, and at most 4 in one transition (Sioux from II -> III; Hittites & Iroquois from III -> IV; Khmer, HRE, Sumer, & Mali IV -> V). This estimate also is very conservative in assuming that each xpac will only have 1 new civ, so even if Xpac-2 has more civs total, it's unlikely that this number is far off the mark.
This is what makes me think that there will either be a 3rd expansion or additional post-xpac DLC; there are simply too many civs that have yet to return; not even counting Sioux/Hittites/Mali, they would have to cut ~10 civs from V's roster with this rate of civ addition. It's a tall order (ie: cut Shoshone, Huns, Songhai, Siam, Assyria, Venice, Polynesia, ...Sweden? Morocco? Austria?) But I think it's far more likely they cut a few civs and sneak in the rest in other, DLC/xpac-related ways.
Traditionally, Carthage has alway been in the first expansion, as it has been for Civs III-V. For this reason alone I'd say it's a likely bet for RnF; the only issue I see with it is that it traditionally is also a militaristic civ like the Mongols and Chandra, but even then it usually has a commercial bent to it as well that could easily distinguish it.
If not Carthage then Morocco and Mali also are possibilities for a commerce-leaning African civ, with Morocco also having some sort of religious component like in V. Ethiopia/Axum has the precedence of being in 2 previous games rather than 1 like the other two; on the other hand, VI seems to be pulling a number of civs absent from V like Khmer and Sumer, which kind of balances the two points out. So in terms of African representation, I would personally rank likelihood as follows:
Carthage > Mali = Ethiopia > Morocco > Zulu > Songhai
With 4 spots left I'd say the Ottomans and Inca (or Maya, but my personal bet is on the Inca) are fairly good bets. Carthage would be the most likely African civ, with Mali and Ethiopia not far behind. I do also think the last spot will be a European civ simply because there are a lot of fan favorites yet to return (...or be introduced). I don't see Portugal and the Netherlands in the same expansion since they're both colonial commercial civs. Italy and Georgia are both popular here, and while I won't put too much stock into such hopes, I won't rule them out either.
________
Conservatively estimating that Xpac-2 will also only introduce 8 civs, this would total 42 total civs; of these 6 are new (Kongo, Macedon, Nubia, Scythia, Australia, Cree, and not counting Norway). If each Xpac brought only 1 new civ so that Civ VI introduces 7 new civs total, this means there would be 35 returning civs (42 - 7) from previous entries. Further discounting Khmer and Sumer, this would be 33/43 civs returning from Civ V. This doesn't take into account the Sioux, Hittites, or Mali (or the HRE for that matter), but in essence it means that if both Xpacs are similar then Civ VI would cut 10 civs from V. I find this quite unlikely, as civ-cutting has never before happened on this scale between any iteration of the series. Civs are very rarely removed; in fact, before VI it has only happened 7 times in total, and at most 4 in one transition (Sioux from II -> III; Hittites & Iroquois from III -> IV; Khmer, HRE, Sumer, & Mali IV -> V). This estimate also is very conservative in assuming that each xpac will only have 1 new civ, so even if Xpac-2 has more civs total, it's unlikely that this number is far off the mark.
This is what makes me think that there will either be a 3rd expansion or additional post-xpac DLC; there are simply too many civs that have yet to return; not even counting Sioux/Hittites/Mali, they would have to cut ~10 civs from V's roster with this rate of civ addition. It's a tall order (ie: cut Shoshone, Huns, Songhai, Siam, Assyria, Venice, Polynesia, ...Sweden? Morocco? Austria?) But I think it's far more likely they cut a few civs and sneak in the rest in other, DLC/xpac-related ways.
)
