[R&F] Rise and Fall General Discussion Thread

[CivLuvah]

...and have it updated to include the R&F civs and leaders as well.

Oh, and there should be a grand list of civs and leaders in the Civ Wikia.

Does anyone have a copy of it in an Excel file? For future reference...

@Eagle Pursuit Do you have one? Can you send me through PM?

 

[nzcamel]

It was removed, since it constitutes original research and also belongs in a video game guide than in an encyclopedia.

Fair, yet that describes much of Wikipedia.

 

[h0nk0815]

Since we are going to get a new hint today (in ~4.5 hours) and with only 3 civs left I made some thoughts about the Chinese "leak" (Zulu + Celts/Scots) and how the hint will affect the likeliness of the leak being true.

The verification of the leak is the easy case: if it's either Celts/Scots or Zulu the leak will be considered valid. It can't be falsified this week, since there will still be two unknown civs left (pigeonhole principle). So what are the possibilities? First of all I have to make an assumption and I take the approach to look at each civ's region. Because I will be very dissapointed if there were neither a South American (short: SA) nor African civ, I assume we'll have at least one of each with a very high likelyhood. So the chance to get 2 European (E) civs would be considered relatively small. After the Mongols and Korea are in the expansion and the SEA-DLC was released lately I guess where will be no Asian civ. I count Turkey/Mesopotamia as own region (Middle East, short: ME) even it belongs to Asia. Furthermore I consider the possibility for another NA civ small, too. I can't rule out that we'll get either 2 African or 2 SA civs. Not sure if I should consider the Byzantines as Europe or ME, but they will be roughly in the same bucket either way (see below).

To sum things up the following list shows my assumption of the 4 highest possibilities from which regions the last 3 civs are going to be (ordered from high to low):

1. 1 Africa, 1 SA, 1 E
2. 1 Africa, 1 SA, 1 ME
3. 2 Africa, 1 SA
4. 1 Africa, 2 SA

That implies for the likeliness of the "leak" to be valid:

• if we get an SA civ (e.g. the Inca) there's no influence, since it still can be all four cases
• if we get either an European civ, other than the Celts/Scots, or an ME civ (e.g. Ottomans, Palmyra, ...) it will be very unlikely. I would consider the "leak" over 90% to be false in this case.
• if we get an African civ, other than the Zulu, I would consider the "leak" less likely, because otherwise we would have no SA civ
• if we get a civ from one of the remaining regions (NA, Asia), it's the same as in the last bullet point: if the leak where true, that would mean no civ from SA - therefore unlikely
• and of course, as mentioned above: if we get Celts/Scots or Zulu the "leak" is verified

 

[Arianrhod]

It's also technically possible we get the Celts, Scots, or Zulus purely by coincidence and thus don't get the other one. The Celts are the most likely to come in naturally, since they've always been in the first expansion pack thus far; if they're led by a Scot, it would be rather suspect, but if they're not, then there's hardly anything more implying the leak afterward than there was prior. The Zulus could also end up coming in without the Celts, though I would view this scenario as much less likely. If we see any trace of Scotland, then the information is probably ~95% valid.

 

[Mr Jon of Cheam]

Really looking forward to today's tease, I wonder how long it will take CFC's crack team to solve the puzzle. Since we are in for a surprise, I think it will take longer than Georgia did, perhaps 11 minutes or maybe 12 if we're having an off day.

 

[bite]

I have an excel of every civ, but not the leaders

 

[Siptah]

Really looking forward to today's tease, I wonder how long it will take CFC's crack team to solve the puzzle. Since we are in for a surprise, I think it will take longer than Georgia did, perhaps 11 minutes or maybe 12 if we're having an off day.

It depends very much on the civ and leader. I‘m sure Shaka, Mehmed II or Wayna Qhapaq are solved in less than 5 minutes. Oduduwa might take us longer than 12 minutes

 

[CivLuvah]

I have an excel of every civ, but not the leaders

Isn't that because some of the leaders overlap different civs across the different games? Like Maria Theresa who was in Germany in Civ2 but was in Austria in Civ5.

 

[God of Kings]

Isn't that because some of the leaders overlap different civs across the different games? Like Maria Theresa who was in Germany in Civ2 but was in Austria in Civ5.

Wikipedia had two tables: one for civs and another for leaders.

 

[bite]

Isn't that because some of the leaders overlap different civs across the different games? Like Maria Theresa who was in Germany in Civ2 but was in Austria in Civ5.

More so that for an article I was writing I needed to know who had been civilization before not the leaders so I didn't go any further with my data collection.

 

[WillowBrook]

Since we are going to get a new hint today (in ~4.5 hours) and with only 3 civs left I made some thoughts about the Chinese "leak" (Zulu + Celts/Scots) and how the hint will affect the likeliness of the leak being true.

The verification of the leak is the easy case: if it's either Celts/Scots or Zulu the leak will be considered valid. It can't be falsified this week, since there will still be two unknown civs left (pigeonhole principle). So what are the possibilities? First of all I have to make an assumption and I take the approach to look at each civ's region. Because I will be very dissapointed if there were neither a South American (short: SA) nor African civ, I assume we'll have at least one of each with a very high likelyhood. So the chance to get 2 European (E) civs would be considered relatively small. After the Mongols and Korea are in the expansion and the SEA-DLC was released lately I guess where will be no Asian civ. I count Turkey/Mesopotamia as own region (Middle East, short: ME) even it belongs to Asia. Furthermore I consider the possibility for another NA civ small, too. I can't rule out that we'll get either 2 African or 2 SA civs. Not sure if I should consider the Byzantines as Europe or ME, but they will be roughly in the same bucket either way (see below).

To sum things up the following list shows my assumption of the 4 highest possibilities from which regions the last 3 civs are going to be (ordered from high to low):

1. 1 Africa, 1 SA, 1 E
2. 1 Africa, 1 SA, 1 ME
3. 2 Africa, 1 SA
4. 1 Africa, 2 SA

That implies for the likeliness of the "leak" to be valid:

• if we get an SA civ (e.g. the Inca) there's no influence, since it still can be all four cases
• if we get either an European civ, other than the Celts/Scots, or an ME civ (e.g. Ottomans, Palmyra, ...) it will be very unlikely. I would consider the "leak" over 90% to be false in this case.
• if we get an African civ, other than the Zulu, I would consider the "leak" less likely, because otherwise we would have no SA civ
• if we get a civ from one of the remaining regions (NA, Asia), it's the same as in the last bullet point: if the leak where true, that would mean no civ from SA - therefore unlikely
• and of course, as mentioned above: if we get Celts/Scots or Zulu the "leak" is verified

Good summary, but I would not consider getting the Zulu to indicate we will certainly get Celts/Scotland, as Wallace could be a new great general. If, on the other hand, we get a civ led by him, then I think the Zulu are also a lock.

 

[Cerilis]

Good summary, but I would not consider getting the Zulu to indicate we will certainly get Celts/Scotland, as Wallace could be a new great general. If, on the other hand, we get a civ led by him, then I think the Zulu are also a lock.

I dunno, Shaka being the genghis replacement is a pretty good reason to not tell it in the livestream.

 

[WillowBrook]

I dunno, Shaka being the genghis replacement is a pretty good reason to not tell it in the livestream.

But wouldn't Shaka be from a different era than Genghis?

 

[Cerilis]

But wouldn't Shaka be from a different era than Genghis?

Yes, but I still wouldnt call it impossible.

 

[WillowBrook]

It just occurred to me that there's an outside chance this week's reveals will be delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King, Jr holiday.

Unlikely (most American businesses don't close - just schools and government offices, mostly), but within the realm of possibility.

We'll find out soon....

 

[Krajzen]

So when are we going to get a tease?

 

[WillowBrook]

So when are we going to get a tease?

If the MLKJ holiday doesn't interfere, in 11 minutes

 

[Krajzen]

Maybe we'll get African civ because of MLK day

 

[Cerilis]

Plsnozuluplsnozuluplsnozulu.

 

[Kimiimaro]

Twenty-four days!

As I said, I hope for Ottoman Empire, Inca Empire or African country, hopefully other than Zulu.