Having played a 0.15 game in which I founded all five religions I understand how debilitating loss of a relion is to the AI. I got a fabulous start, sure. But the main reason I was so far ahead was the lack of religion for AI civs. They got stuck in the hole early and I kept digging it deeper by eliminating their alternative religions. So some change that works well with AI concerns wold get my support.
I am still emotionally in favor of the high-risk
status quo, as it is my personal experience that the loss of a Early Three religion is not a deathblow. This is even more true in 0.16, which has reduced the happycap benefit some compared to 0.15. Many options exist for the leader who learns someone has beaten them to their Early Three religion.
1> Pursue one of the remainng two E3 faiths.
2> Refocus immedeately on an L2 religion.
3> Persue secular building alternatives.
4> Natural resources.
5> War.
6> Trade.
#1 can be risky, though Leaves/OO are close.
#2 is probably less risky. If you make it a national priority you should be able to beat the AI to this corner of the tech map. (hich leads to a PS below.)
#3 is perfectly viable. You start noticing twists that never seemed important before. Such as Marketplaces and the Consumption civic. Sure, a religion gives you a bunch of extra happy faces ... but you 'use' them only one at a time. City populations grow so long as there is one extra happyface or 1,000. The secular route makes you scramble to keep raising that happycap limit ahead of your population growth, but it can be done. And in doing so, you find yourself with no temples but a lot of Marketplaces, extra trade routes, and running Consumption a century before you expected.
#4 is viable or it is not depending upon your map. If you see a lot of silk and bananas and ellyphants and whatnot, you can duplicate the religions happycap bonus pretty easilly.
#5 sometimes you are forced into a war that in any other circumstances would be considered too early, risky, and ambitious. If so you might become one of those rarest of all animals. SOmeone with a reason to use City States.
#6 when you are small and it is early then diplomacy becomes much more than an afterthought. Fortunatley, the lack of a State Religion also means a lack of diplomatic objections. It is easier, noticably easier, to swing deals with AI civs when your civ has no official religion. It is easier to avoid unwanted war.
Postscript: When you consider the risk in missing an E3 religion, and in light of the non-religious alternatives now available in 0.16, the strongest strategy now seems to be to target an L2 religion right at game start. Use that time to lay a secular foundation. Then make the run for the L2 of choice. It's almost a certainty you can beat the dumb AI that deep into the tree.
However, all that being said, some change the made the AI play notably 'better' is probably worth it. It's probably not a bad idea if second-placers got some sort of consideration. However I do think 2nd-placers should get something that is notably less effective as a "seed". There should still be a decision point: do I keep going and get the booby prize, or do I shift gears right now? make the booby prize too attractive, and poof goes the decision point.
Fun discussuion
