It will happen currently, but it's very rare and, as best I can tell, quite random. It's not strictly military strength, as I barely build an army and even less navy. It's not strictly relationships, either. I no longer doing anything to improve the AIs opinion of me. As you point out, it will denounce and denounce and never do anything. Then out of the blue an AI with a relatively neutral or even friendly view of me will decide to attack.
I don't declare war or take AI cities, so that no doubt has an impact, as I don't get any warmonger points. I play Deity, but there's no apparent increase in AI aggressiveness at Deity (except early game, when I think it counts it's starting Warriors, compares that to your units, and licks it's lips).
The experience as of R&F, however, may not be a good guide of what to expect as of GS. Someone would have had to go into the AI diplomacy code to implement the switch over to the Grievance system. Who knows what they may have changed while they were in there.