SGOTM 01 - Fifth Element

[Perugia]

At work so can't look in detail at the turn log but here are some thoughts I just gotta get down.

#238, #240 If Catherine will speak to us we can find out how many non-capital cities she has via the diplomacy screen.

Addition

Iry-Hor C1 R=5.5/7.35=0.748 was lucky to withdraw (20% chance) but this made up for the minimal damage done as Iry-Hor C1 only won 1 out of 5 rounds of combat against a expected 2-3 rounds won out of 6.

The Serket II C1 defeat was marginal bad luck and statistically correct. At R=5.5/6.1 = 0.901639 Serket II C1 won 4 out of 9 rounds and inflicted 72 hits on Catherine's archer. With marginal good luck Serket II C1 would have done 90 hits winning 5 out of 10 rounds but would still have died.

Either way an easy win for Merneith C1 followed.

So what does this mean for the assault on Moscow now we have a few veteran 5/5 chariots the attack is not so difficult. At Moscow we face defenders with 40% culture bonus compared to 20% at Rostov/StP ie +0.6 more strength but should have a fair number of Combat II chariots so the odds are only slightly worse R=6.0/7.95=0.755. Average damage remains essentially the same.

I therefore revise downward the number of units needed as follows. We still need 3x no of archers worth of healthy chariots but for every 3 healthy combat II chariots we do not need a spare unit.
eg
assuming 5 archers and 7 combat II chariots we need 18 attackers (15 main + 3 spare).
assuming 4 archers and 9 combat II chariots we need 13 attackers (12 main + 1 spare).

 

[Doom Train]

Got the save opened it.

I ll play my turns tonight or tomorrow.

 

[gskur]

@Doom Train
Please do not forget to give only combat promotions to chariots, not flanking!

Ka C2, which is now 2S1E of Moscow on the rice tile, needs to be moved 1 tile left to cover the 2-hammer forest--let Catherine have rice galore and, if she is stupid enough, let her build a settler... But take away as many hammers as possible!

@everybody
It takes 37H to build an archer. Catherine has 9H per turn now. When Ka C2 moves (above), she will have 7 hammers per turn. This is 1 Archer per 5-6 turns. With one on the way (I am sure), I think we will face a coulple more archers by the earliest time we are thinking to attack with chariots. And she can whip one on the spot when needed, too. Since the new chariots will be only promoted to C1, we will need like 3.5 of these per each additional Russian archer (see Perugia #241). Even getting to 18 (per. Perugia) and bringing them to Moscow will take 8-9 turns, even if we switch Thebes back to building chariots!

Catherine already has 5 archers now. We will have 14 chariots next turn.

We cannot win this way, unless...
Yes, it is possible she will move some archers out of Moscow to attack us or trying to escape with a settler and a couple of archers as guards. Maybe we should even remove Ka C2 from the South to give her a possible way of taking that settler out? If she does, one or another, we should immediately re-evaluate our chances, but would anyone vouch for her to do this? Anyhow, I think we need all the remaining (unengaged) chariots be brought ASAP to 1N of Moscow for this eventuality.

Or, maybe, she is indeed stupidly building a settler or two??!! This could be true, but even then it's another 8-9 turns to build up sufficiently, and she can whip, and... If she is not half-stupid as that, we cannot catch up in any reasonable time.

Lacking any other ideas, I still propose following the plan outlined in gskur #225, Alternative 1, but taking advantage of any opportunities Chathy might give us along the away. Our settler is ready in 8, so there is another 28 turns to go (or 22 with 2 swords only), unless the Russians cooperate...

I hope I missed something and can be proven dead wrong about it, so we can take Cathy out in an easier fashion...

 

[Goodenuf]

Just a quick note on some of the Flanking promotions. I did give some units the Flanking I promotion after they already had at least Combat I promotions. I find these units most useful for initiating attacks on cities, since their withdrawal odds are greater on the turn where they have the highest odds of losing.

Certainly the primary upgrade should almost always be Combat I. What follows that depends on the situation. Most of the time in this case chariots don't have Cover option for archers, so Combat II is usually the best. It is also good to have some with Flanking I to deal with the situation as described above.

@gskur #243: Yes, you are correct; we should leave the rice alone and cover the forest squares. We do have more chariots heading south to help out with this. There is a lot of forest out around Moscow, so shutting it right down is pretty much out.

 

[Perugia]

To speed up our settler or a sword we can chop the forest between the stone and Thebes. This will have to be felled and farmed eventually as it is on the shortest irrigation chain to our rice farm.

As Doom Train has posted a got it I'm handing over to vice-captain Merum but might still post on strategy tomorrow before I am off for a weeks walking in Eryri (Snowdonia).

Spoiler :

The roster and turns to 925 BC

DoomTrain 10 (up)
BrianS 9 (on deck)
Dolphan 10
gskur 10
Groin_Apologist 9
Perugia 28 (skip on May 28 - 4 June)
Merum 19 #182
Goodenuf 10 #213-240 (resting)

Have fun

 

[gskur]

@Goodenuf #244
A very good point on promotions: it makes sense the way you explained it. Thanks.

@Perugia #245
Dah! Chopping, of course... Man, you rock!

 

[Merum]

That southern Russian city has copper. We better make sure it doesn't get mined.

I wonder if it wouldn't be good to chop the settler, and let the ensuing Axe/Sword (Personally, I prefer Axes, but if we're only fighting archers, we don't benefit that much from the melee bonus) finish in normal time.

Lastly, and this is a request only, if you all could please try to pick up and play your turns on a timely basis, I'd really appreciate it. I leave for Asia on June 5, and I'd like to get in another turnset before I go.

Edit: (btw I didn't know I was going to China so soon again until a few days ago... I'm sorry to leave you guys for the weeks I'll be gone. I hope picking up my turnsets isn't too much of a burden)

 

[gskur]

@Merum #247
It makes no difference when it is that you chop: hammers are hammers, and any overflow is used, not lost. Unless we are getting some kind of bonuses on one and not on the other. In this case you chop when the bonus is "ON."

 

[Dolphan]

@Gskur #248

It does matter, as the city doesn't grow while building the settler. Thats why building early game settlers using chops alone is one of the most popular strategies going.

 

[Merum]

Yes, so why not get the settler out sooner?

Edit 1: In an exponential game like civ is, we'll benefit more from getting a city up sooner in the long run. We might feel a little pinch in the near term, but the sooner we get that pinch behind us, the better we'll be in the endgame.

I vote to chop the settler and grab the iron ASAP. Hook up the health, and gogogo.

 

[Goodenuf]

Pumping out a settler quickly by chopping is a popular strategy, and would work well here. The only real issue is that settlers cost maintenance $$, and so do new cities. Having said that, a well placed city will generate $$ soon enough (as well as research, units, culture, etc.), and in this case get us that iron we desperately need.

Chopping around Thebes will contribute to the health problem, though. We need to hook up the rice (by Thebes) and cows (by Memphis) soon to mitigate this.

 

[Doom Train]

Finished 5 turns. My main aim was to cover much hammer tiles as possible.

Turn 1: Moved KA C2 to forest tile as gskur suggested. Covered another forest tile NW of moscow by a a chariot. Aaron started chopping the forest between stone mine and Thebes. War Chariot completed in Memphis (Dani C1). Road completed by Leonardo

Turn 2: Usual march towards moscow continues. Moved Leonardo to hill SW of capital.

Turn 3: Oracle built in far away land. Apprentice will build road towards iron. Leonardo is also building a road.

Turn 4: New Archer built by catherina(I think she used slavery because pop dropped to 5) and she immdietly attacked Tiu C2(was protecting forest tile W of Moscow). Tiu wins but he s badly wounded.(0,3/5). So i put someone else in his tile and made him to protect another forest tile that 2 or 3 turns away from moscow. So he can heal(19 turns) and make some some work.

Turn 5: Aaron completed chopping settler will ready in next turn . Basic marching and covering job done.

Now in the 6th turn We have total 16 War Chariots (15 are in russia) 4 warriors(2 in russia for support). I have occupied most of the hammer tiles but she has another archer completed in this turn. research is at %10,
70 gold with no gain or loss.

So should i attack with 16 Chariots and 2 warriors or bring more?
what are your suggestions for Aaron?
and give your final suggestions for for third city.

 

[gskur]

@Doom Train #225
Then let's settle 1N1W of Iron. This will make for an excellent long-term viable city.

Ma-an! that's a nice coverage of the forrests. Cathy is at, what, 2 hammers per turn now? Wow!

Move Tiu into at least neutral terretory--like 1 tile NW, better into our, to heal faster: we get more out of a healthy chariot then 1/2 an archer worth of production blocking in 19 turns. You can use another chariot or a warrior to replace Tiu in the forest.

We do not have 16 chariots to attack, but 14.5 (-Tui, -Ka). Perugia made calculations (above). Are you asking here if we think we can get lucky? If that's the Q I were to ask myself, I'd say "no." You might have a lucky touch--some people do--you should know better. To my liking, if we attack with chariots then we need to build another 4 of them. If we are going to build swords then why are we still building chariots and spending support money on them? I am confused a bit here. Anyways, it is your turn and you are the decision maker.

P.S. I am not sure you know it (forgive me for being fussy, if you do know): If you decide to attack Moscow then move all the attacking chariots before the attack to the tiles IMMEDIATELY NEXT to Moscow. Attack on the turn when ALL OF THEM have 2 movements available. This is to give them a chance to escape out of combat--if a chariot attacks on the second move in a turn (from 2 tiles away) then it either wins or dies--no escape. This will expose the resources to Catherine for 2 (maybe 3) turns, yes, but it will save us a few chariots to heal and fight again. To minimize the "resource exposure" effect initiate maneuvers right after a new build by an opponent, better yet if after a whip-build, like we have now. Do you feel lucky today? (please don't...)

 

[Doom Train]

@gsku #226
Hmm according to many people Lady Luck favors me much more than any person in this planet . Of i am gona bring all units in attaking range before assault. But i ll bring 4 more chariot just to be sure about victory or maybe swords.

 

[Merum]

Luck won't carry us very far here, and a bad result will cripple the team for the rest of the game. If we were at a lower level I'd say hell yeah, let's go.

You did a good job of choking Cathy off her tiles... Let's let her choke a few more turns and then slap her around but good.

We should be building swords, not chariots. Swords have a much higher percentage against these archers, and we can give them city raider. The downside is that they'll take longer to get to the front, and they take longer to build, but I feel it's worthwhile.

I'm realy not comfortable with crowding my capitol, but 1N1W of the iron is a decent city spot. Maybe we'll learn something about why the AI builds their cities so close.

Will Cathy talk to us? Let's find out if that other city is the only one left or not...

I'd personally be tempted to send a chariot south and explore around the south city, if we're waiting for reinforcements at the front.

The calls are ultimately yours, for 5 more turns. Good luck.

Bringing the roster down to keep it fresh:

DoomTrain (playing)
BrianS (on deck)
Dolphan
gskur
Groin_Apologist
Perugia (skip on May 28 - 4 June)
Merum
Goodenuf (resting)

 

[gskur]

Doom Train, I just noticed your avatar... A nice one, it is. Did you always have it and I was blind?

 

[Doom Train]

@Merum
Hmm maybe stop training War chariots and investing hammers to granary in both cities until iron is hooked is good idea. Since no hammers spent on chariot in both cities we can change our production without any loss. Also we ll receive +1 health bonus(rice). And then finish Catherina with swords.

@gskur
I just hit 30 post limit for custom avatar so changed it to this(I use it in every forum)

 

[Merum]

It's an interesting idea... how many turns until we can hook up the iron?

Further investment in chariots is hammers spent on nearly obsolete units, but if we can hit 20 before we'd get say, three swords built, then we'll have enough to whack moscow, maybe. We're going to start having WW issues soon if we don't close this out.

Guns or butter is always a tough choice...

 

[Goodenuf]

How about building city 1S1E of Iron, and reserving space for another city 5W of Thebes (and another on the canal spot to the SW). That means the next 3 cities are coastal cities. Placing one NE of Iron effectively negates the other 2 coastal spots, and only leaves the canal location as a coastal city. I have the feeling that coastal cities will be important sooner than later.

That being said, I can live with the NW city location, but that wouldn't be my first choice.

 

[Doom Train]

I ve completed my turns and uploaded the save. By the way my final exams are starting at 1st June until 9th so skip me between those periods if my turn comes.

Next is BrainS good luck!

BrianS
Dolphan
gskur
Groin_Apologist
Perugia (skip on May 28 - 4 June)
Merum
Goodenuf
Doom Train (skip on June 1 - 9)


Turn 6: Changed production in Thebes to Granary. Talked to Catherine, she has one city left other than Moscow which is Novgorod. I scouted further with a Chariot to see defenses of Novgorod. It is on desert tile with % 20 defenses and 2 non promoted archers protecting it.

Turn 7: One of archer in Moscow attacked Wazner. Wazner defeated it with no injuries. So 5 archers left in Moscow. Founded Helipolis on 1S 1E of iron. Apprentice and Aaron both working to mine iron while Leonardo is building road to connect it to our cities. We ll get iron in 3 turns. Also 3 more War chariots moved towards Novgorod. Yes I ll raze it.

Turn 8: Serket C2 and Djet C1 (luck) 2 defeated archers with moderate wounds. Gave Combat II to Djet. Novgorod razed. Memphis completed a War Chariot (Fatos C1).

Turn 9: Leonardo completed road to iron. I am moving him to Memphis so he can improve a tile for a citizen that will born after 5 turns.

Turn 10: Iron is ready to use. Nothing more interesting.

Bad news: There is a barbarian axeman N of Memphis but Chariot and a Warrior protecting Memphis.

Tech level 20% with 144 gold(-1 per turn)

Spoiler :

Turn 105, 925 BC: You have trained a War Chariot in Memphis. Work has now begun on a War Chariot.

Turn 107, 895 BC: The Oracle has been built in a far away land!
Turn 107, 895 BC: Huayna Capac adopts Organized Religion!

Turn 108, 880 BC: You have trained a War Chariot in Memphis. Work has now begun on a War Chariot.
Turn 108, 880 BC: Catherine's Archer (3.30) vs Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) (4.80)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Combat Odds: 10.7%
Turn 108, 880 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 108, 880 BC: (Extra Combat: +20%)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 15 (65/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 15 (50/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 15 (35/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 15 (20/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 15 (5/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 108, 880 BC: Fifth Element's Tiu C2 (War Chariot) has defeated Catherine's Archer!

Turn 110, 850 BC: The Parthenon has been built in a far away land!

Turn 111, 835 BC: Catherine's Archer (3.30) vs Fifth Element's Wazner C1 (War Chariot) (5.50)
Turn 111, 835 BC: Combat Odds: 3.8%
Turn 111, 835 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 111, 835 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 111, 835 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 111, 835 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 111, 835 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 111, 835 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 111, 835 BC: Fifth Element's Wazner C1 (War Chariot) has defeated Catherine's Archer!

Turn 112, 820 BC: Heliopolis has been founded.
Turn 112, 820 BC: You have trained a War Chariot in Memphis. Work has now begun on a War Chariot.

Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Serket I C2 (War Chariot) (6.00) vs Catherine's Archer (5.85)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Combat Odds: 63.8%
Turn 113, 805 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: (Plot Defense: +20%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 20 (80/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Serket I C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 19 (81/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 20 (60/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Serket I C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 19 (62/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 20 (40/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Serket I C2 (War Chariot) is hit for 19 (43/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 20 (20/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 20 (0/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Serket I C2 (War Chariot) has defeated Catherine's Archer!
Turn 113, 805 BC: Your Serket I C2 has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Djet C1 (War Chariot) (5.50) vs Catherine's Archer (5.85)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Combat Odds: 33.8%
Turn 113, 805 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: (Plot Defense: +20%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Djet C1 (War Chariot) is hit for 20 (80/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Djet C1 (War Chariot) is hit for 20 (60/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 19 (81/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Djet C1 (War Chariot) is hit for 20 (40/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 19 (62/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 19 (43/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 19 (24/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 19 (5/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Catherine's Archer is hit for 19 (0/100HP)
Turn 113, 805 BC: Fifth Element's Djet C1 (War Chariot) has defeated Catherine's Archer!
Turn 113, 805 BC: Your Djet C1 has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 113, 805 BC: You have captured Novgorod!!!
Turn 113, 805 BC: You have destroyed the city of Novgorod!!!

Turn 114, 790 BC: Moses has been born in a far away land!