SGOTM 05 - Murky Waters

[Erkon]

I tested settling in original spot, teching mining => BW, building worker => settler with one chop. I got:

Mining 3580 BC
Worker 3280 BC
BW 2740 BC
Human barbs 2710 BC (very close)
Settler 2590 BC
Both Isa and Alex wanted peace.

Note: I state the year of learned tech as the year I get the pop-up. It's not the same as in the log. Shall we agree on a standard way to state what year a tech is learned? The year in the log, or the year of the pop-up?

klarius - what I meant was that perhaps Alex would DoW Asoka? Perhaps we don't want the AI to DoW each others, due to their military build up, but it would lead to AI getting upset with each others, which typically deteriorate rather quickly

If we're not beelining BW, we should not care about the barbs at all. An axe or two wont do much harm, and certainly not if we get peace with one or more AI.

 

[Big Pig]

Many options - that is why we need to each try out the various starts on the test maps to get a feel for what works. And we each need to decide where our priorities lie? Early barb axes? Early REX? Rapid (and I use the word loosely here) tech progress? (yeah, I know - ideally all 3, but....). It would reduce the noise a bit if we try out the various starts we are advocating - that we we know which ones actually work and which ones just sound good in theory (so put your money where your Pottery beeline is LC!)

To my mind the 2 front-runners are:
1. Agr/Min>BW and worker>warrior>?settler@size2 - and this is marginally quicker settling SW
2. Min>BW>Agr and warrior>worker (whipping the worker at size 2) - this works at least as well settling SE (and SE gives more forest chops)

I think the pig-mine is a bit of a red herring as we primarily lack for commerce rather than production. I also don't like to see the worker sitting idle for more than a turn or two. Any longer, and maybe we should have invested a few turns in building a barracks or a warrior and getting some growth rather than rushing out the worker

 

[klarius]

We will be nobody's worst enemy, no matter how bad our relations are .
The barb team isn't considered for worst enemy.
So no penalty for trading with us.

The barb axes are also important for our team power rating, which is a big factor in them wanting to have peace with us.

 

[Big Pig]

I tested settling in original spot, teching mining => BW, building worker => settler with one chop. I got:

Mining 3580 BC
Worker 3280 BC
BW 2740 BC
Human barbs 2710 BC (very close)
Settler 2590 BC
Both Isa and Alex wanted peace.

That sounds a very good start with early axemen and early REX. Presumably tech rate was slow? When did Pottery happen?
(Of course once there is a settler, the tests become very grey as we don't know the island layout and what good sites there are to settle. I suggest for the purposes of the test we send the settlers to sleep and continue OCC)

EDIT: It would be also good to specify which save game you used. As I posted earlier Klarius's plays out quite differently from LC's

EDIT2: I have taken the liberty of modifying K's save slightly, removing the copper from the fat cross (which I fear will make it more like the real thing....)
View attachment KLARIUS BC-3970.Civ4SavedGame

 

[Big Pig]

Is there any benefit from trying to get good relations with any of the AI? We know OB and tech trading will only happen at Friendly (I think that's what Klarius said - please correct me if wrong). Will any of these 7 civs trade resources with us at below friendly? (They will all trade gold for resource of course). Should we be at all concerned about worsening our diplomods with the AI?

 

[Big Pig]

Please PM gyathaar about the specialists asap. Else he will get into trouble and have to spend a lot of time to sort things out.

Gyathaar and Denniz have been informed. Neither of them have changed the specialist stacker mod recently so think it is a change with the patch. Denniz will try to correct the problem in the next HoF patch

 

[klarius]

worker-grow-settler versus worker settler : settler one turn later, BW 2 turns earlier, we already revolted to slavery and have a few hammers in barracks.


Trading:
We can probably get open borders and resource trades with the nicer guys. Alex and Toku are definitely lost cause, Isa and Saladin are not very likely.
The others are pretty easy on OB and health and happiness resources.
Tech trading will not happen before we get one of the nice guys to friendly and not at all with the others.
We will never gain points for mutual struggle (barb team) so the only big positive is religion. Qin isn't that much into religion so that leaves Asoka and Cyrus.
So if we want to trade tech we would need to convert to the religion of Asoka (preferred as he gives the most points) or Cyrus and stay there for a looong time.
I doubt this is worth the effort, but nevertheless we could try to get peace with these to soon.

 

[Erkon]

worker-grow-settler versus worker settler : settler one turn later, BW 2 turns earlier, we already revolted to slavery and have a few hammers in barracks.


Trading:
We can probably get open borders and resource trades with the nicer guys. Alex and Toku are definitely lost cause, Isa and Saladin are not very likely.
The others are pretty easy on OB and health and happiness resources.
Tech trading will not happen before we get one of the nice guys to friendly and not at all with the others.
We will never gain points for mutual struggle (barb team) so the only big positive is religion. Qin isn't that much into religion so that leaves Asoka and Cyrus.
So if we want to trade tech we would need to convert to the religion of Asoka (preferred as he gives the most points) or Cyrus and stay there for a looong time.
I doubt this is worth the effort, but nevertheless we could try to get peace with these to soon.

klarius, where did you settle? I think we have one candidate for the opening now (worker - grow - settler / mining - BW)

Does anyone have another candidate for opening? Else I think we should go for the "klarius kickstart"

 

[klarius]

I'm always settling on the original plot. 8g or 6g 2 overflow early isn't enough for me to accept a much worse position long term.

 

[Big Pig]

Early BW is clearly very strong as it allows both the barb axes and us to whip/chop out an early settler. So even if we are on an archipelago with small islands (limited scope for barb axes) it is probably still the best route.

So, if we assume a BW beeline Min>BW>Agr is the best tech path to follow, and that early BW and an early settler are desirable goals, then we have 2 build options (wkr>grow size 2>settler, and grow size 2>wkr>settler) (I think we have discounted wkr>settler>grow??) and 2 possible city spots (SE and SW).

In theory the SW site allows slightly faster tech speed in the wkr first builds (as we work the bananas continuously rather than the commerce-free pigs for the first 8 turns) and faster growth for the grow first builds. Its disadvantage is that in the long-term it is a less good city site at ~pop 8 as it has fewer river tiles and in the short-term it (may) have fewer forest chops

In theory the grow>wkr build gets to (size 2 and a worker) quicker than wkr>grow - but this advantage may be negated as there will be no pig-mine for the first 6 turns of the subsequent settler build

Playing out the 4 combinations on Klarius' (no-copper) map confirms the theory. BW is ~3 turns earlier settling SW rather than SE (for both wkr or growth first builds). (In all 4 cases BW came in before barb axes appeared).

Settler was 3 turns earlier in the settle SW, grow>wkr>settler build due to being faster to (size 2 + worker) and earlier BW allowing chops and whip. (This choice also had Agr completed 1 turn earlier than the others - although by now there is so much AI induced tech-speed variation to render the comparisons inaccurate)

For the record:
Settle SE, wkr>grow>settler: BW 2740, settler 2560
Settle SE, grow>wkr>settler: BW 2770, settler 2560
Settle SW, wkr>grow>settler: BW 2830, settler 2560
Settle SW, grow>wkr>settler: BW 2830, settler 2650

Is the benefit of a settler 3 turns earlier (and probably slightly faster Agr) worth the probable loss of a forest chop and a slightly inferior city-site in the long-term?

 

[Big Pig]

Trading:
We can probably get open borders and resource trades with the nicer guys. Alex and Toku are definitely lost cause, Isa and Saladin are not very likely.
The others are pretty easy on OB and health and happiness resources.
Tech trading will not happen before we get one of the nice guys to friendly and not at all with the others.
So if we want to trade tech we would need to convert to the religion of Asoka (preferred as he gives the most points) or Cyrus and stay there for a looong time.
I doubt this is worth the effort, but nevertheless we could try to get peace with these to soon.

Looking at the AI leaders' personality spreadsheet it seems that (in a normal game):

Asoka, Qin, Cyrus and Saladin will all trade happy resources when Annoyed
Asoka and Qin will trade health resources when annoyed
Asoka and Cyrus will allow OB when Annoyed​

How does this translate into attitudes in this game where we are twinned with the barb team?

 

[klarius]

The attitude towards the team is the average of the attitude towards the players.
The attitude towards the barb player is fixed at furious.
So to get them to effectively annoyed we need them at cautious towards us. To get them to effectively cautious we need them at friendly. Pleased doesn't help anything. Another of these obscure truncation things .

 

[klarius]

To the initial play issues:
I don't consider losing a river grass and dyes for sea tiles to be only slightly inferior. So 3 turns earlier for settler would not bring me to settle SW.
Ok, if there is a heavenly site for the second town, it might bring an advantage short term. But we don't even know if we have any good site.

 

[Murky]

Good work so far guys. I'm sort of leaning toward one of BP's suggested starts. I also think it may be wise to make peace with at least some of the civs because we don't want them all with a common worst enemy throughout the entire game. Have them fighting each other as much as possible to slow their progress if at all possible.

 

[Big Pig]

I don't consider losing a river grass and dyes for sea tiles to be only slightly inferior. So 3 turns earlier for settler would not bring me to settle SW.
Ok, if there is a heavenly site for the second town, it might bring an advantage short term. But we don't even know if we have any good site.

You are probably right - assuming that we can sort out our WW and happy issues and grow our capital large enough to take advantage of these tiles. The extra forest chop (from settling in the original site) is probably important so we can get a second worker quickly after the settler

 

[Big Pig]

I also think it may be wise to make peace with at least some of the civs because we don't want them all with a common worst enemy throughout the entire game. Have them fighting each other as much as possible to slow their progress if at all possible.

We will be nobody's worst enemy, no matter how bad our relations are .
The barb team isn't considered for worst enemy.

It may be a tough call as to when to make peace. Too early and the advantage of rampaging barb axes is negated. Too late and WW goes sky-high and barb cities and conquests may be recaptured. We may also find that some AIs (who have done well against the barbs) refuse to make peace at all.

It will be important for the early players to constantly monitor the situation.

 

[Big Pig]

An early post from the SGOTM4 thread.....

This will be fun. Perhaps we can agree on where to settle our first city before we reach the 150 post marker this time?

For the record it took us 114 posts in SGOTM4 and 157 posts in SGOTM3 before agreeing on our opening moves - we have smashed the record this time.

I plan to start taking it forward in 24h unless LC or one of the others manages to confuse the issue further.
Settle SE and aim towards Wkr>growth>settler and mining>BW start

 

[klarius]

BP, what did you do to get BW that early settling SW. It should be only 0-8 commerce difference total.
The only way I see to speed up BW this much is to work river grass @ size2, but then the worker is delayed too much.

Peace:
We really have to know the lay of land, but if the barbs have success in capturing cities, I would try to make peace so they can keep their cities. It might also be a good idea to have the barbs concentrate on one AI, if there are several on the same island/continent.

 

[Big Pig]

BP, what did you do to get BW that early settling SW. It should be only 0-8 commerce difference total.
The only way I see to speed up BW this much is to work river grass @ size2, but then the worker is delayed too much.

It is only 2 or 3 turns earlier - and some of that may be random variation from the AI techs. At size 1 I worked the banana tile, at size 2 the banana and the pigs. I'm sure you could replicate the dates using your save.

I would also point out that in all 4 test starts the BW date preceded the barb appearing date so getting BW 2 or 3 turns earlier is no big deal

 

[Big Pig]

In the early game, getting peace (or not) at the right time may make a big difference to how things turn out. Can I suggest that (at least in the early turnsets) we discuss any proposed peace deals between the group - particularly after the barbs capture a city?
Erkon may even like to make that Directive #1374.4