SGOTM 06 - The Real Ms. Beyond

[Compromise]

I realized after the fact that the way to pillage Hannibal's horses was (starting from the copper) to move NE, SE, cut the road, then pillage the horses. Oh well. [Edit: for the record, I was the one who recommended trying to pillage Hannibal's horses with that warrior. I was naive!]

I think your plan sounds good. I'd make one change: I think getting some units near Timbuktu (chariot+spear?) and timbuktu (axe+chariot?) to try to stifle their expansion is more important than a library in London.

With Alex and Hannibal with horses, Hunting is a must.

Let's plan on Monday to allow feedback.

 

[Swiss Pauli]

The stack is rolling south, but before coming to them, a quick update of other news: chariot killed a barb warrior and I promoted him to sentry, which I think will be very useful as part of our stacks. An axe took out a Greek warrior but took 2.6 hp of damage, the dolt, so he's still healing. Unpromoted, he should join the sentry chariot and a spear in the pillage stack.

Hunting was learnt and research switched off to build some cash for 100% completion of Maths after we sack Athens.

I changed my mind about one spear and now plan to send him south to the main stack because we have contact with some bogeys:

I'd advising taking Cover promo and attacking because we'll get 2XP to give the another promo. Could be a bit tricky if Alex ducks his units across the river, or sticks to the woods.

Coppersquat is giving Athens the evil eye and informs that Athens has another worker and 'only' 3 CG Archers. I've marked the attack square (and the good news is there's no crossing water penalty, the bad news is that Coppersquat had 7.8% win chance...)

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm6/The_Real_Ms_Beyond_SG006_BC0700_01.CivWarlordsSave

 

[TheArchduke]

It is a long way down to Athens.

I am crossing my fingers.

 

[Compromise]

Groan...CG archers on a capital's hill.

I might get a chance tonight to look at the save. My first impression is that we should let the 4 archer attackers head north unimpeded by us. New units up there can deal with them. The delay for healing will just allow him to train more units. And the reason Athens probably has so few troops is simply because these have left for the front.

At Athens, we're probably going to need at least 2 attackers for every defender. Once we are in attack position, we should test our attack squad vs. the defense to make sure it's reasonable to proceed.

Edit: I see Alex has founded our elephant farm for us.

 

[Swiss Pauli]

No, Athens has had three archers for all of my set. I think we should attack those archers if possible, as we'll need three units per archer as things stand. With Cover and CR1, we may be able to scrape home more comfortably, without losing much time.

 

[sunrise089]

If we're waiting for more units to come south anyways, I think we should hit the archers in the open - after all, if we have good odds its basically a free promotion and won't tie down our troops closer to home. If we're going to have to actually delay our main attack because this little stack is parked on a forested hill across a river, than we might consider bypassing....

 

[Compromise]

I actually like sunrise's suggestion. If we have to divert too much or attack the archers on defensive ground, then the delay and/or resulting casualties might be too much. Otherwise, let's take them out. We do have a medic chariot with us.

 

[Kodii]

Attack according to what Alex does, as following what the others above me said.

If its flat ground and odds are good, then we might as well gain those free promotions.

 

[Compromise]

Lee, I've got you "up" for the next turnset and Kodii on deck. Ruff and sunrise, I still have you "on leave." Let me know if any of this needs correcting.

Some good turns here recently. My biggest short-term concern is that Alex will whip several archers while our axes march into strike position. I agree with Swiss' attack location: no river penalty and a forest to defend on.

In the medium-term, I think we should get eyes on the enemy again. And deny them strategic resources. I actually don't mind if the develop some cities and land for us, but I'd rather only fight AI archers.

Long-term is a little vague still. I don't think there's enough land on this continent for a domination victory, especially considering that we haven't even met three (I think that's right?) of the AIs. One of our priorities out of Athens might be to get a couple fishing boats out. Maybe they can find some AIs for us?

C'mon Alex, build us Stonehenge or something!

 

[LKendter]

In it in the queue for tomorrow.

UGH - it looks like I am stuck with the do or die attack.

I'm am going to cause the team to suffer the humilation of a wooden spoon?

 

[Compromise]

Feel free to stop at any point during your turnset to consult with the team. If the first 3 axe attacks don't even dent the first defender, we may have to abort. Also, if he whips in another 3 archers before we arrive, that would probably call for a rethink. If you want to stop right before the assault so we can simulate the assault--so as to choose the best promotions or attack order (assuming we had some varied experience levels after dealing with the flatland archers en route), we can do that too.

Also, I think we have enough cash on hand to go full speed for mathematics. We're unlikely to switch techs or upgrade any warriors soon.

 

[Swiss Pauli]

Great Wall was BIFAL, all Alex could come up with in Athens was a worker during my turns.

Thinking about the promos, Cover is only available at Level II, so it'll be nice if Alex attacks us on unfavourable terms, so we can get a couple of CR2 Axes. From my test game, we need to suicide the best units first, in order to do more damage to the top defenders.

 

[TheArchduke]

From my experience, if we are not too unlucky an attack even with the first axes being at 8 percent works, if we can achieve a 2:1 in numbers.

 

[Compromise]

Thinking about the promos, Cover is only available at Level II, so it'll be nice if Alex attacks us on unfavourable terms, so we can get a couple of CR2 Axes. From my test game, we need to suicide the best units first, in order to do more damage to the top defenders.

Using the best troop to take out the top defenders is good to know. I've often wondered about that for non-siege troops. I've read that for siege attacking cities, it's always best to take CR rather than extra collateral promotions because that way you have at least a chance to ding the top guy and the extra collateral damage is minimal.

Looking forward to hearing the battle details, Lee!

 

[sunrise089]

Actually, the single best thing for an attacking until to have is first strike - the guaranteed hit on the top defender is killer. In multiplayer, I've seen offensive stack with longbows as their first wave for just such a reason.

PS - I can be inserted back into the rotation wherever our dear leader sees fit.

 

[Compromise]

Interesting. I'd never heard of such a great benefit of first strike. I'll have to consider that. When two units with first strike face off, do they both get in a hit to start the match?

I'll put you back in the lineup before we go to the top of the order again, sunrise. Welcome back.

 

[LKendter]

700 BC
I really don't understand the cottage on the dyes. We are maturing a cottage that will mostly likely be destroyed. IMHO that wasted worker turns.

I don't understand the AI sometimes. Our copper watching axe has no way to harm the workers working on the copper square.

We have no libraries and no markets. I see no use for binary research simply crank the slider up to max and don't bother counting.

There is no reason not to grow York to size 4. I flip to the spice forest tile to start growing again.


670 BC
The Greek archer stack has disappeared somewhere east.


640 BC
Unfrelling believable - I attack a barb archer with a chariot at 89% odds and don't even scratch him. If I lose Athens by one unit I will be royally pissed. That should have been a promotion for our chariot...
(IT) Alexander has completed Stonehenge.
At least the barb archer attacked and died, so we have a CR2 axe for the attack on Athens.


580 BC
It doesn't sit right with me to start with using our units with the best promotions, but I follow Swiss's advice.

As I fear, thing aren't going well. I almost never do these early rushes, and have no instinct when it is a lost cause.



The question for the team is do I bail?

I would have wanted swords for better odds with the hill involved.
While I agree this was the right try to win a medal, this isn't fun for me. Knowing that I just cost the team a metal turned this game into an embarrassment for me.

 

[Compromise]

I guess I'm leaning toward "go for it." We may very well be down to the last unit. I expect we'll lose two of the three axes, but then should have decent odds on the last hits.

I assume all 3 axes are CRI. What promotions are on the chariots?

If all 3 axes lose, I'd save the chariots for scouting and pillaging and generally harrassing the AIs.

 

[ruff_hi]

I'm assuming that 35% are your best odds. What are the odds of the chariots v the current archer ... 20% or so? Less? We have 6 units to kill 4 wounded archers. So we can only afford 2 losses.

From the graphic, it looks like we have two axes against very similar archers for a 35% chance of victory. The other axe against one of the other archers should be better. Lets say the average odds for our units are 40%. We win if we hit any of the following patterns ...

WWWW = .4^4 = 2.6%
WWWLW = .4^4 * .6 = 1.5%
WWLWW = .4^4 * .6 = 1.5%
WLWWW = .4^4 * .6 = 1.5%
LWWWW = .4^4 * .6 = 1.5%
WWWLLW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
WWLWLW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
WWLLWW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
WLWWLW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
WLWLWW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
WLLWWW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
LWWWLW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
LWWLWW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
LWLWWW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%
LLWWWW = .4^4 * .6^2 = 0.9%

... for a total of 17.9% or just over 1 in 6. I'm in the 'go for it' camp.

 

[TheArchduke]

Go for it.

We will be screwed in any case, what should we do? Retreat now?
Cutting our losses will only cost our economy the support of those units dragging themselves back.
Also the RNG has a way of making things up to you, at least in my games. If I loose unreasonably in a round, I win unreasonable battles as well.

Also LKendter, What Embarrasment? I think nearly everybody leaned towards an axe rush and we decided it worth the risk, if you like I finish the turnset.