SGOTM 06 - The Real Ms. Beyond

[sunrise089]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think our odds are much better. Assuming the average odds for our three ax battles are about 40%, there's only a 22% chance we loose all three. So we'll PROBABLY loose two axes, and kill one archer. We would then have three archers left, BUT I think our odds for each battle would then be a lot higher than 40% - after all, the archers should be wounded quite a bit even if they win.

Either way, I definitely feel we should go for it. Why wait for swords when we might win now AND can still build swords and hit another AI?

PS - Loosing the ~85% chariot battle did suck.

 

[Compromise]

I completely agree about the lack of embarrassment. We're in it together and have made several decisions along the lines of "death or glory."

Archduke is right about the economy: From the screenshot, it looks like we're probably already up about +6gpt from our losses so far.

[singing] Always look on the bri-i-ight side of life! [/singing]

 

[Swiss Pauli]

It looks touch and go at Athens, but then it was always going to be risky. Here's hoping the RNG is in our favour and we can take it this turn (else Alex will whip an archer).

Away from here, should we not start a round down to the Iron in preparation for settling there?

 

[Kodii]

Go for it! If we succeed, then fantastic. If not, we won't get a Wooden Spoon if we retire.

...just looking at the brighter side

 

[LKendter]

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm6/The_Real_Ms_Beyond_SG006_BC0565_01.CivWarlordsSave

580 BC (continued)
This is just disgusting. Athens holds with a .2 health archer. My fear when I attacked the barb archer turned true.


565 BC
I continue the suicide is painless theme since Alexander was an idiot and didn't whip a new defender. Our course the CR2 fails at 35% odds.
I try with the medic chariot at 42% and fail again. This is a total WTH.

I left our one chariot active in case we one to take another one third chance to raze Athens

Spoiler :

Turn 120, 700 BC: Logging Game to File: autolog.txt

Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot (4.40) vs Barbarian's Archer (2.85)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Combat Odds: 88.4%
Turn 124, 640 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 124, 640 BC: (Barbarian Combat: -5%)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (52/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (36/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (20/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (4/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 16 (0/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Barbarian's Archer has defeated Churchill's Chariot!
Turn 124, 640 BC: Alexander has completed Stonehenge!
Turn 124, 640 BC: Barbarian's Archer (3.30) vs Churchill's Axeman (5.25)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Combat Odds: 6.1%
Turn 124, 640 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 124, 640 BC: (Barbarian Combat: +5%)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Barbarian's Archer is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Barbarian's Archer is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Barbarian's Archer is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Barbarian's Archer is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 124, 640 BC: Churchill's Axeman has defeated Barbarian's Archer!

Turn 126, 610 BC: You have discovered Mathematics!

Turn 127, 595 BC: London will grow to size 6 on the next turn

Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman) (5.50) vs Alexander's Archer (8.10)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 7.8%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Combat: -25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman) is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman) is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman) is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman) is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman) is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's CopperSquat (Axeman)!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your CopperSquat has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (4.80) vs Alexander's Archer (7.50)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 3.2%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (72/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (84/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (48/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (24/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (68/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (8.25)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 2.6%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (8.25)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 2.6%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (7.95)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 3.1%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 15 (70/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (7.01)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 15.2%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (69/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (7.01)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 15.2%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (69/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (53/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (5.69)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 35.4%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (53/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (37/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (54/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (31/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (21/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (8/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (5.61)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 50.3%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Attack: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (51/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (34/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (17/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman (5.00) vs Alexander's Archer (5.98)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 32.7%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (76/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (52/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (54/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (28/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (4/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (38/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 24 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot (4.80) vs Alexander's Archer (4.69)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 58.2%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: -20%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (37/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (54/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (21/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (31/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (5/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (8/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Chariot!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Chariot has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot (4.40) vs Alexander's Archer (3.24)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 83.9%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: +10%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +50%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (77/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (21/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (54/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (31/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 23 (8/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (4/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 17 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Chariot has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot (4.40) vs Alexander's Archer (1.85)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Combat Odds: 98.4%
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (City Defense: +70%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 18 (3/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 18 (0/100HP)
Turn 128, 580 BC: Churchill's Chariot has defeated Alexander's Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: Your Chariot has destroyed a Archer!
Turn 128, 580 BC: London has grown to size 6

Turn 129, 565 BC: The enemy has been spotted near York!
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Axeman (4.40) vs Alexander's Archer (5.11)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Combat Odds: 34.3%
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (City Defense: +95%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (City Attack: -45%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (65/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (42/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 16 (46/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (19/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Axeman is hit for 23 (0/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Axeman!
Turn 129, 565 BC: Your Axeman has died trying to attack a Archer!
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Chariot (4.40) vs Alexander's Archer (4.41)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Combat Odds: 42.2%
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Fortify: +25%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (City Defense: +95%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: (Hills: +25%)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Alexander's Archer is hit for 15 (31/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Churchill's Chariot is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 129, 565 BC: Alexander's Archer has defeated Churchill's Chariot!
Turn 129, 565 BC: Your Chariot has died trying to attack a Archer!

=======================

New Updates
Two stupid subtle mistakes cost us taking Athens.
1) I should have let the barb archer attack at worse odds then attacking with the chariot.
2) I should have let the experienced axe heal. I didn't think .4 health down would matter that much, but looking back that might have given us one more hit and one the battle.

I lost focus on the primary goal. I am in no rush to see the game back. At the moment I am too disgusted with my performance...

 

[Kodii]

A valiant attempt. Do we want to give up? Something tells me we should, but something else tells me not to be a quitter. I guess we always end up sub-par whether or not we play the game safe.

 

[Compromise]

One vs one at 35% odds? Go for it. But don't raze Athens, keep it! It'll give us the Henge.

Even if the stack is totally defeated, we're not out yet. Maybe bigger AI cities will be more developed when we do get them.

Don't worry, Lee. There is no dishonor in a valiant defeat!

 

[LKendter]

One vs one at 35% odds? Go for it. But don't raze Athens, keep it! It'll give us the Henge.

Our nearest reinforcment is a spear 11 turns away. Unless the city comes out of resitance fast we probably won't keep it, or be so injured that the nearby barb warrior kills us.

Don't worry, Lee. There is no dishonor in a valiant defeat!

When poor play is the reason, there is. Take away my two small mistakes and I would have captured Athens...

 

[Compromise]

...When poor play is the reason, there is. Take away my two small mistakes and I would have captured Athens...

It's hard to say that it was poor play. Perhaps a delay would have allowed Alex to whip in another defender. Perhaps the attacking archer would have weakened a defending axe too much and caused delay.

Taking and then eventually losing Athens is fine (or at least better than letting Alex keep it without a fight). If the barbs get it, that's even better: they will be easier than an AI to take it from.

Plus, think of the epic nature of our writeup for the spoiler thread!

 

[Kodii]

Stonehenge isn't in Athens. It's in Sparta.

 

[sunrise089]

Please don't feel bad LK - I at least wouldn't have done a thing differently.

I support going for it with our last unit.

 

[TheArchduke]

No reason not to try our last unit.

But, yep, damn. But that is how things goes, we gambled so we should accept if it goes awry.

 

[Swiss Pauli]

Ah, well. Let's not get too down about it. The only way is up from here!

 

[Compromise]

Stonehenge isn't in Athens. It's in Sparta.

I missed this. Is Stonehenge in Athens or Sparta? I just assumed Athens. Wherever it is, we could probably use it (eventually).

Regardless of whether we take/fail/lose Athens, we need to think about what to do next. With elephants nearby, lean toward finding an AI city with some Iron if we want the better metal. Cats will help us take down anything.

Also, I think we should prioritize AI strategic resource denial. A couple ( pillage parties--1 axe, 1 spear, 1 chariot--should do it. Maybe an extra axe to handle resource-tile defenders.

 

[Compromise]

Did our last chariot defy the odds? Or did the hills of Athens hold off our magnificent assault?

 

[Kodii]

Who is playing it? Me or Lee?

 

[Compromise]

I'm ********; I didn't even notice the save, and so thought that Lee still had it.

Kodii, why don't you take it from the save. We can discuss our plans after we find out about Athens. I'd probably keep it, but make the call in-game. (We could use Sailing to connect it to the core.)

 

[sunrise089]

I'm ********; I didn't even notice the save, and so thought that Lee still had it.

Kodii, why don't you take it from the save. We can discuss our plans after we find out about Athens. I'd probably keep it, but make the call in-game. (We could use Sailing to connect it to the core.)

You aren't the only foolish one - I was waiting for more LK turns as well.

 

[LKendter]

I'm ********; I didn't even notice the save, and so thought that Lee still had it.

I definite do NOT have it. I couldn't even play again to Sunday night at this point...

 

[TheArchduke]

Oh, jeez, may I load the save up and just run that chariot up the hill against that archer and the load it back up again.

I promise, I will cry "Geronimo" or something.