SGOTM 06 - Xteam

[Cactus Pete]

Agree with Fred that the odds are in our favor, so attack the cities before taking time with other units.

I really don't think the order of attack in Kufah will change the odds dramatically. Basically there are two somewhat competing factors: attack with your best units first and use the cats first because they weaken all other units. Since there are only two units defending, attacking with a sword and Xbow first would seem optimal. Then, if both defenders survive, go ahead and use both cats. If only one survives, attack with the best unit first and proceed in that manner.

For Damascus, the order is more critical. Bombardment will have limited efficacy, and by attacking first with cats, it's very likely that you'll win 4 of the five subsequent battles (think you'll be 85% or better) and hopefully the chariot can take care of the survivor. So attack first with both cats and then units -- the most powerful first, proceeding in decreasing order of their power. It would be most unlikely that you will do worse than having to finish a badly wounded unit off next turn with four surviving units.

 

[Frederiksberg]

I think I am more worried about Kufah. We have two X-Bows, each show a 21.3% chance of victory. An Axe shows 14.5%, the two Cats are each at 2.2% and the Sword shows 58.1%. The question is what order of attack would be most likely to ensure success?

Remember that we have 3 attackers for each defender. That should prove to be a decisive advantage. As long as you don't attack with the cats before they have reasonable odds I don't think you can go wrong.

I did a little testing with a scenario similar to Damascus and my conclusion is that we should attack with one cat first. The collateral damage should bring the battle odds of the swords and WE's above 90%. Attacking with the second cat is not good because battle odds will only increase slightly so when the first cat has attacked you should simply continue the attack each time selecting the attacker with the best odds. The chance of winning 5 battles at 90% is around 60% and even if we loose one or two we still have the cat and the chariot as backup. All in all we must have a very good chance of success.

 

[Frederiksberg]

For Damascus, the order is more critical. Bombardment will have limited efficacy, and by attacking first with cats, it's very likely that you'll win 4 of the five subsequent battles (think you'll be 85% or better) and hopefully the chariot can take care of the survivor. So attack first with both cats and then units -- the most powerful first, proceeding in decreasing order of their power. It would be most unlikely that you will do worse than having to finish a badly wounded unit off next turn with four surviving units.

As I argue above the first cat will most likely improve battle odds to around 90%. This means that suiciding the second cat will improve odds very little and it is thus better not to attack with it and keep it to mop up a badly wounded unit if we are unlucky and loose two out of five 90% battles.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Fred and CP have presented the situation.

If we follow their advice (go with one cat at Damascus) both cities will fall. Worst case scenario would be mopping up wounded archers at Damascus next turn.

Let's go for it!

 

[leif erikson]

Thanks. I'll take about a half an hour, make a sacrifice, do a Haka and then give it a shot. Take a deep breath...

 

[Cactus Pete]

I did a little testing with a scenario similar to Damascus and my conclusion is that we should attack with one cat first. The collateral damage should bring the battle odds of the swords and WE's above 90%. Attacking with the second cat is not good because battle odds will only increase slightly so when the first cat has attacked you should simply continue the attack each time selecting the attacker with the best odds.

Nice refinement -- no doubt puts the odds of one-turn success above 90% too.

Don't think you'll need anything except the avoidance of bad luck, but 'Good luck!' anyway, leif.

 

[leif erikson]

Thanks.

Haka done and here we go!! Be back soon..

 

[leif erikson]

The Haka worked!! Saladin was certainly intimidated!!

The action:
Turn 215 – 725 AD
First attack is at Kufah.
We start with our CR3 Sword versus CG2, Drill1 Archer. Attack is at 58.1%. Our Sword wins and is now at 2.6/6. That is an encouraging start…
Next, we attack with a X-Bow versus the final Archer, at 26.1%. Our X-Bow dies but has left the Archer at 0.3/3.
Attack with the unpromoted Cat at 99.9% and kill the Archer, Kufah is our and, after claiming 70 Gold as our prize, we burn it to the ground.

Now, on to Damascus.
Our initial attack is with a Cat at 7.7% odds with a chance to retreat of 23.1%. He makes a noble sacrifice.

Second unit to seek Glory is our CR3 Sword who attacks at 92.1% and kills an Archer.
Next up is our CR3 Sword, 5.5/6, attacking at 93.9%. A WE would be at 91%. Our Sword wins a glorious battle.
A WE is up and he attacks at 93.6% and kills his enemy.
Another WE charges forward at 94.5% and eliminate his quarry.
A Cat charges forward, ahead of the final WE, seeking recognition and, at 99.9%, eliminates the last of the resistance and takes Damascus. The troops collect 97 Gold to treat the population nicely and keep the city. This deposes Saladin and, as his score drops to zero, gives him a place in the dustbin of history.

Press enter for:

With a score of 49,923.

The save after victory is here.

I will attach the save prior to victory below for those who like to go through the victory screens.

Great game team. for all the hard work and the excellent participation. This game was a lot of fun for me.

 

[AlanH]

Well done, Xteam

 

[leif erikson]

Well done, Xteam

Thank Alan.

And a big thanks to the staff for another great game.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Hooray!

Well played leif and my gratitude to XTeam for having me on for this fun game.

Thanks to the staff for making it happen.

 

[ShannonCT]

Nice finish JT and Leif! It was a pleasure playing with you all and I look forward to SGOTM7.

Now on to read the other team threads.

 

[DJMGator13]

Nice finish and well played.

Time for the Victory Cigar and some

 

[Cactus Pete]

This was a terrific SGOTM -- great discussion. Thanks to the administrators for conceiving this challenge. Looking forward to the next one.

I don't have time to read all the other threads, but I'm certainly curious. Would it make sense to delegate a thread per person and each report anything of interest via PM's to all team members?

 

[leif erikson]

Nice finish and well played.

Time for the Victory Cigar and some

What happened to Ice Cream and Jack Daniels????

This was a terrific SGOTM -- great discussion. Thanks to the administrators for conceiving this challenge. Looking forward to the next one.

Absolutely.

I don't have time to read all the other threads, but I'm certainly curious. Would it make sense to delegate a thread per person and each report anything of interest via PM's to all team members?

In post 3 of Murky Waters thread, thier organized Capt has indexed the thread so you can find the relevent topics. Saves one from wading through 2000 posts... Almost as bad as we are?

I think that as we have time, we should bring back learnings and we can discuss them. I'm thinking that each of us will find different things of interest. I know I might miss something important...

As we find various tidbits, it would be really nice to link to the post where we find them so we can "go to the source".

 

[Markus5]

My hearty congratulations. Y'all done good. Now I can go explore other threads.

 

[rrau]

Nice job of mopping up Saladin.

 

[Gosha190]

Congrats with bronze!

Very good game, but seems you were somewhat slow in your final war.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Well done leif and well done team . First laurel ever for the XTeam I believe.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Congrats with bronze!

Very good game, but seems you were somewhat slow in your final war.

Thanks . According to Gnejs we were only 2 turns slower than you at CRC. Btw what happened with the CRC game? We are not used to seeing you guys in 4th or maybe event 5th spot.