SGOTM 06 - Xteam

[Frederiksberg]

If we build the settler in London, we will not only get the iron settled quicker, but will also be able to both chop and whip swords in Timbuktu -- plus London is growing much slower now than Timbuktu, so less is lost by switching to settler there.

Settler takes 16 turns in London. In Timbuktu the numbers are something like worker (4) -> Monument (3-4, w. chop) -> Settler (4 turns, w chop + whip 2 pop). The longer distance from Timbuktu mean that despite building it faster it will arrive at approximately the same time.

This could be tested if leif manages to mock up something in the world builder.

Btw. we really need a granary in Timbuktu so that we can double the hammer output from whipping.

 

[ShannonCT]

Settler takes 16 turns in London. In Timbuktu the numbers are something like worker (4) -> Monument (3-4, w. chop) -> Settler (4 turns, w chop + whip 2 pop). The longer distance from Timbuktu mean that despite building it faster it will arrive at approximately the same time.

This could be tested if leif manages to mock up something in the world builder.

Btw. we really need a granary in Timbuktu so that we can double the hammer output from whipping.

If Tim can get a settler to the iron just as fast as London can, I agree it is better to have Tim build it. London can become an even stronger production city if it is allowed to grow. London is needed right now for building military that Tim can't build. I'm wondering how long it would take to build another worker in Tim after a settler. If Tim is eventually going to help with military, it will need roads to join it to our network. Continuing the road SW would connect Tim with the planned roads between London and the South.

Pottery is an option after Writing-Math. We'll know more about the map by the time math is done, and we'll be able to make a better decision about whether we're facing a short game or a long game.

Just thinking about our unit count and unit maintenance: We have 9 units and an axeman, worker, and workboat on the way. Our current population (7) can support 12 units. That will go up to 13 when our population is at 9, which should be soon. After that, we can have 15 units for a cost of 1 and 17 units for a cost of 2. So even if we start going over the free unit limit, the cost will be pretty low. The bigger costs could come with unit supply. We currently have three units in the field. We get two more for free. The workboat will be one, and if we send out more exploratory warriors and roadbuilding workers, we will start to incur supply costs. We should try to find ways to use our workers to minimize supply costs without compromising our other plans. For instance, if we aren't going to work the gold near York until it hits Pop3, 1 worker can build the mine and one can start building roads south and east from London. Or if there is a banana farm that could be built in 4 turns with two workers but won't be needed for 8 turns, one worker should probably go outside and start building needed roads if doing so wouldn't add to supply costs.

Just a reminder:
0-5 units outside borders: cost=0
6-7 units outside borders: cost=1
8-9 units outside borders: cost=2
etc...

It's better to have an odd number of units outside of borders, everything else being equal.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I seem to be in the minority, and I may well be wrong, but I'm going to make the case one more time for building the settler in London:

Premised upon:
1. The need for more axes is not sufficient to merit their construction. We can just move the sentry axe N of London to Tim and keep the new one at home, while sending the present MP warrior to the hill the sentry now occupies. Swords (along with cats and WE) are what we will want to use off continent.
2. Any chops before Math waste hammers. We can whip monument in Tim and reserve all the hammers in the forests there for barracks and swords.
3. Growing London means moving off great tiles. Now is not the time to do that.
4. Tim is closer to Carthage than London is.

So: Build settler in London and begin barracks; finish worker, whip monument, then grow (as barracks are built) Tim so can whip an unpromoted sword ASAP, while workers start road south towards Carthage, getting back in time to pre-chop just before Math comes in. Take Carthage primarily with swords from Tim (hoping the first sword to arrive there is able to gain some promotions); after workboat, build warriors in York for defensive purposes in and around London/Iron-city area, and grow to size three to work gold, rice, and cows; and construct road system SE from London, as has been suggested.

 

[Frederiksberg]

1. The need for more axes is not sufficient to merit their construction. We can just move the sentry axe N of London to Tim and keep the new one at home, while sending the present MP warrior to the hill the sentry now occupies. Swords (along with cats and WE) are what we will want to use off continent.

This will probably work out. Things could get nasty though if London and York are attacked by two barb warriors simultaneously and we only have one unit for defense.

2. Any chops before Math waste hammers. We can whip monument in Tim and reserve all the hammers in the forests there for barracks and swords.

You could use the same argument and say that all whipping before granary is a waste of food. Actually a bigger waste since the food needed to regrow pop is actually reduced by a factor of 2 while the chop yield is only increased by a factor of 1.5 by Math. Anyway, I see your point, there is an advantage in keeping the forests.

3. Growing London means moving off great tiles. Now is not the time to do that.

This is clearly a problem, but we have to do this sooner or later. The idea was actually to wait 14 turns and then start growing London when York reaches pop3. Do you want to wait longer than that? And why?

4. Tim is closer to Carthage than London is.

Yes, distance from Tim to Carthage is 13 MP and from London to Carthage it is 16 MP. Not a whole lot of difference.

So: Build settler in London and begin barracks; finish worker, whip monument, then grow (as barracks are built) Tim so can whip an unpromoted sword ASAP, while workers start road south towards Carthage, getting back in time to pre-chop just before Math comes in. Take Carthage primarily with swords from Tim (hoping the first sword to arrive there is able to gain some promotions); after workboat, build warriors in York for defensive purposes in and around London/Iron-city area, and grow to size three to work gold, rice, and cows; and construct road system SE from London, as has been suggested.

There is a potential problem here: Timbuktu is not connected to London so it is not able to build any swords until that is established. I originally thought that connecting London with the river that runs close to Timbuktu would do the trick, but after playing with the world builder to confirm this I'm not so sure anymore. Does anyone know exactly how you can connect to a river with a road? In my world builder example it didn't work out for some reason I don't understand.

 

[ShannonCT]

I seem to be in the minority, and I may well be wrong, but I'm going to make the case one more time for building the settler in London:

I think it will be a lot easier to decide which course is best when we can actually test different options on a practice map and get some hard figures.

2. Any chops before Math waste hammers. We can whip monument in Tim and reserve all the hammers in the forests there for barracks and swords.

30 hammers now can be worth more than 45 hammers later (depends on when later is; any idea how long 'til math?).

4. Tim is closer to Carthage than London is.

If the two workers near Tim need to go back to Tim to pre-chop the sword army, how far can they actually build the road to Carthage? Is Tim really closer when this is taken into account?

...Tim so can whip an unpromoted sword ASAP, while workers start road south towards Carthage, getting back in time to pre-chop just before Math comes in.

What is the plan for the unpromoted sword? Trying to intercept a settler party?

There is a potential problem here: Timbuktu is not connected to London so it is not able to build any swords until that is established. I originally thought that connecting London with the river that runs close to Timbuktu would do the trick, but after playing with the world builder to confirm this I'm not so sure anymore. Does anyone know exactly how you can connect to a river with a road? In my world builder example it didn't work out for some reason I don't understand.

Have you tried if on an unmodified map? I wonder if the strange river interface in Worldbuilder is creating problems with your test

 

[Mad Professor]

A great Christmas to all. I'll be back in a few days.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

So: Build settler in London and begin barracks; finish worker, whip monument, then grow (as barracks are built) Tim so can whip an unpromoted sword ASAP, while workers start road south towards Carthage, getting back in time to pre-chop just before Math comes in. Take Carthage primarily with swords from Tim (hoping the first sword to arrive there is able to gain some promotions); after workboat, build warriors in York for defensive purposes in and around London/Iron-city area, and grow to size three to work gold, rice, and cows; and construct road system SE from London, as has been suggested.

I like CP's suggestion, with fast settling of ironsite and quickly raising 4-5 swords. We can flesh out the details in a trial game.

-------------------------------------------------------
If our cr2 axe finds only an archer and warrior in Carthage still... have we all made up our minds that we shouldn't attack?

What we lose if we lose: set back settling of ironsite and London builds by about 6 turns as we build a replacement axe. Set back exploration of south part of continent as forest-promoted warrior is kept at Carthage to keep worker inside city.

What we win if we win: fast track capture of Carthage by about 40 turns and speed up the capture of Athens by 15 or so turns. Also can open up the eastern area of the map for exploration much faster than usual.

The capture won't slow down the research for the next 30-40 turns since the gold from capture and commerce from ocean tiles will offset maintenance. City can also connect to our trade network very easily with the long snaking river that runs past it.

Initially I thought we shouldn't risk it... but it is an appealing gamble.

 

[ShannonCT]

If our cr2 axe finds only an archer and warrior in Carthage still... have we all made up our minds that we shouldn't attack?

What we lose if we lose: set back settling of ironsite and London builds by about 6 turns as we build a replacement axe. Set back exploration of south part of continent as forest-promoted warrior is kept at Carthage to keep worker inside city.

What we win if we win: fast track capture of Carthage by about 40 turns and speed up the capture of Athens by 15 or so turns. Also can open up the eastern area of the map for exploration much faster than usual.

The capture won't slow down the research for the next 30-40 turns since the gold from capture and commerce from ocean tiles will offset maintenance. City can also connect to our trade network very easily with the long snaking river that runs past it.

Initially I thought we shouldn't risk it... but it is an appealing gamble.

I'm fine with taking a shot at Carthage if there are only a warrior and archer there. I think the upside justifies the risk.

Given that we aren't sending a second axe to kill a settler party, the axe isn't really going to be doing anything that the warrior couldn't be doing. If the axe did die, the warrior might want to move between Carthage and the iron and try to keep any settler from settling on top of it. We don't even need to send a replacement axe if the AI is unwilling to send out a worker when our warrior is near. Our swords will be coming soon anyway.

 

[Cactus Pete]

This will probably work out. Things could get nasty though if London and York are attacked by two barb warriors simultaneously and we only have one unit for defense. My experience is that a pair of barb warriors this early in the game is unlikely, but it indeed could get tricky, even though we would have an axe in the city and a warrior not too far away on the sentry hill. There will be a warrior built in York fairly soon, as well. Would judge risk worth the reward.

You could use the same argument and say that all whipping before granary is a waste of food. Actually a bigger waste since the food needed to regrow pop is actually reduced by a factor of 2 while the chop yield is only increased by a factor of 1.5 by Math. You're right, of course. I hadn't thought about it that way, but like much of my scenario, it is justified by quicker capture of powerful cities. Anyway, I see your point, there is an advantage in keeping the forests.

This is clearly a problem, but we have to do this sooner or later. The idea was actually to wait 14 turns and then start growing London when York reaches pop3. Do you want to wait longer than that? Certainly until the settler is built, after that I wouldn't want to move off the gold (certainly not for many turns, but off the copper might be worth it) until we get to Mathematics and can start chopping swords.And why? My intuition is that in this case the short term advantage of getting Athens and Carthage quickly, plus quicker research is more important than the long-term advantage of growing sooner onto good, but not great, tiles that our workers would have to improve when they need to build roads and the iron city gold mine. Along this line, I'm anxious to get the York gold mine operating -- not certain we want to grow York to size three before working it. The city will grow at 2f/turn while we work it.

Yes, distance from Tim to Carthage is 13 MP and from London to Carthage it is 16 MP. Not a whole lot of difference. Some roadwork SE of Tim should increase this advantage a turn or two, but the big difference -- and I'd certainly like to test this -- is that, even waiting until after Math, barracks and swords can be chopped in Tim and sent to Carthage much quicker than built in London (and London is closer to Athens than Tim is, so we would not next be chopping in Tim to send units to Athens. We'd be producing units mainly in London for Athens).

There is a potential problem here: Timbuktu is not connected to London so it is not able to build any swords until that is established. I originally thought that connecting London with the river that runs close to Timbuktu would do the trick, but after playing with the world builder to confirm this I'm not so sure anymore. Does anyone know exactly how you can connect to a river with a road? In my world builder example it didn't work out for some reason I don't understand.

If we can't connect to Tim via a short road and the river, then obviously forget my approach.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I think it will be a lot easier to decide which course is best when we can actually test different options on a practice map and get some hard figures. Absolutely, that's all I ask.

30 hammers now can be worth more than 45 hammers later (depends on when later is; any idea how long 'til math?). Certainly so. Since we're going to be testing, I'm not going to strain to get an exact number of turns, but (depending on how soon we hook up a York gold mine (and briefly one adjacent to the Iron City) I think we're talking about 30 turns, roughly 15 after the settler is built and the monument expands culture in Tim.

If the two workers near Tim need to go back to Tim to pre-chop the sword army, how far can they actually build the road to Carthage? Is Tim really closer when this is taken into account? Again, we can test, but the workers around London need to build gold mines, a road to the river and to the iron city, in addition to paving to the south, while those at Tim can begin road construction quickly. I think every two tiles of road will save one turn to Carthage, and the return will be via road, so won't take too many turns.

What is the plan for the unpromoted sword? Trying to intercept a settler party? Just thinking it will make us better able to deal with many possible eventualities, plus get promoted. While we couldn't prevent settlement and capture a worker with one sword, we could certainly dispense with one archer, get promote, and then probalby take out the new city after our sword heals. BTW, I meant to mention earlier that a city settled on iron will probably take 15 turns to build an axe. I think we'd be able to raze it first, and it might actually benefit us as a training ground for our first pair of swords..

Have you tried if on an unmodified map? I wonder if the strange river interface in Worldbuilder is creating problems with your test

Hope something like that is the problem.

 

[Cactus Pete]

"I'm fine with taking a shot at Carthage if there are only a warrior and archer there. I think the upside justifies the risk. Before I add my agreemant, I'd like to know if JT took into account that Carthage will likely expand just before axe reaches it?

 

[leif erikson]

I think it will be a lot easier to decide which course is best when we can actually test different options on a practice map and get some hard figures.

Sorry I haven't been here to discuss this further.

Progress Report
I have the basic map built. I have to figure out some refinements, so I hope to post a save within 48 hours for some testing. World Builder is pretty cool, once you get used to its quirks.

I highly recommend the CIV Modding Manual available for download in This Post!! It explains how to build a scenario and how to use World Builder.

The next thing I have to dig into a bit is discussed in This Post. I hope it tells me how to set the details in the cities, like how far along a build is and how much food is in the box, etc. Those are the details left to clean up, along with setting the turn clock. Hope I can get them done fairly quickly but we shall see.

The last thing I have to consider is what techs to give the AI Civs. Anyone know who has changed civics to Slavery, indicating they know Bronze Working? Thus far, I have given them the basics plus Archery and Writing, along with the techs needed to get there. Should I give any of them Settlers, or does it matter?

OK, off to bed!!

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

"I'm fine with taking a shot at Carthage if there are only a warrior and archer there. I think the upside justifies the risk. Before I add my agreemant, I'd like to know if JT took into account that Carthage will likely expand just before axe reaches it?

With the culture going from 20% to 40%, the chances to beat an unpromoted fortified archer go from 63% to 30%.

The window is still open, but less open than I thought before.

Progress Report
I have the basic map built. I have to figure out some refinements, so I hope to post a save within 48 hours for some testing. World Builder is pretty cool, once you get used to its quirks.

Thanks much leif!

The test map is mostly for how we time our own builds and unit movements rather than accurately gauging what the AI will do. So don't go nutty trying to set the AI up perfectly.

 

[ShannonCT]

With the culture going from 20% to 40%, the chances to beat an unpromoted fortified archer go from 63% to 30%.

Those odds don't sound too promising, especially considering that there's always a chance that you kill one archer and another gets built. The chance of winning Carthage is probably more like 20% or less. Save the axe and maybe we can do something with it if we send an early sword ahead.

 

[Frederiksberg]

The next thing I have to dig into a bit is discussed in This Post. I hope it tells me how to set the details in the cities, like how far along a build is and how much food is in the box, etc. Those are the details left to clean up, along with setting the turn clock. Hope I can get them done fairly quickly but we shall see.

It might be more than just details, I'm afraid. If you get stuck just post a 4000BC save with the correct map then maybe we can replay the initial sequence - the turn logs are pretty detailed and if the RNG gives a different result than in the game we can reload and try again. If that also fails we can use the old pen and paper method to compare the strategies.

The last thing I have to consider is what techs to give the AI Civs. Anyone know who has changed civics to Slavery, indicating they know Bronze Working? Thus far, I have given them the basics plus Archery and Writing, along with the techs needed to get there. Should I give any of them Settlers, or does it matter?

You can use the (HOF) Foreign Advisor Info screen to see the civics of the other civs. In this case both Alex and Hannibal have adopted slavery. I don't think they have writing since this is Prince level. No settlers - we don't see any.

 

[Frederiksberg]

A great Christmas to all. I'll be back in a few days.

Merry Christmas to you too, Professor and to the rest of the XTeam crew .

I guess you must be busy stuffing the kangaroo for the Christmas dinner. You do need quite a lot of apples for that...

I will also be away between the 24th and 28th.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Those odds don't sound too promising, especially considering that there's always a chance that you kill one archer and another gets built. The chance of winning Carthage is probably more like 20% or less. Save the axe and maybe we can do something with it if we send an early sword ahead.

I'm also inclined to save the axe for a later attack. More so because I think we need the warrior outside Carthage to do some scouting. I suggest we send him along the south and west coast and let our work boat travel north and down along the east coast. There is one piece of information I forgot to mention in my turn log. I saw a Greek work boat pass by London and I guess that means that the peninsula to the west is small. Actually I was surprised that the AI would scout using a work boat but then later I realized that it was heading for the clam tile on the eastern side of Athens! This further implies that there is no passage south of Athens due to the tundra extending down to the ice. Thus it seems much better to go north with the WB where it can hopefully find a passage to the west coast.

 

[Frederiksberg]

If someone want to have a go at the pen and paper planning here are the essential stats:

London (3 pop): Food 8/39, 1fpt, Build Axe 47/52, 9hpt
York (1 pop): Food 16/33, 4fpt, Build work boat 12/45, 3hpt
Timbuktu (3 pop): Food 20/39, Build worker 64/90 5fpt + 3hpt.

Maps can be found here:

Maps

Time for worker actions:

Mine: 6 turns
Farm: 8 turns
Road: 3 turns
Chop: 5 turns

Cost of builds:

Settler: 150
Worker: 90
Monument: 45
Axe: 52
Sword: 60
Warrior: 22
Barracks 75

Chop yield is 30 hammers, whipping yield is 45 hammers per pop AFAIK.

Income is 24 gpt, expenses are 6gpt (City maintenance), treasury 32g.

Tech costs:

Mysticism: 106
Writing: 256
Mathematics: 535
Sailing: 214
Pottery: 171 - discount for knowing both Fishing and Agriculture

An example: Myst -> Writing -> Math costs 106+256+535 = 897 beakers.

Income is 24 gpt from the next 5 turns then 31 gpt if we start working the 2nd gold mine immediately so:

32 + 5*(24-6) + x*(31-6) >= 897

or x*25 >= 897-122 => x=31

So the time to Math is about 36 turns. It will come a little sooner if we connect Timbuktu for additional 2gpt and we could have Iron city gold mine online in roughly 21-22 turns for say 4 gpt extra (8 gpt minus increased maintenance). The best time would still be around 33 turns from now.

Btw. this requires binary research since we loose 1 gpt by setting the tech slider to other values than 100%.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Have you tried if on an unmodified map? I wonder if the strange river interface in Worldbuilder is creating problems with your test

It works on an unmodified map! Must be a problem that's only present when you change the map mid game.

 

[ShannonCT]

I'm also inclined to save the axe for a later attack. More so because I think we need the warrior outside Carthage to do some scouting. I suggest we send him along the south and west coast and let our work boat travel north and down along the east coast. There is one piece of information I forgot to mention in my turn log. I saw a Greek work boat pass by London and I guess that means that the peninsula to the west is small. Actually I was surprised that the AI would scout using a work boat but then later I realized that it was heading for the clam tile on the eastern side of Athens! This further implies that there is no passage south of Athens due to the tundra extending down to the ice. Thus it seems much better to go north with the WB where it can hopefully find a passage to the west coast.

It seems pretty common on Big and Small maps for one end of the continent to be icelocked and the other not, so it would probably work to send the workboat around the north and over to the east coast, if we aren't planning on sending a warrior. If the Greek workboat was spotted north of the peninsula, it tells us it is a short one, but not whether there are more islands to the west of it. It would still be useful to have a warrior from London help out with some scouting, either north or south along the west coast. And while the woodsman warrior is scouting along the southern coast, I think he needs to check that SW peninsula to make sure there aren't any strategic resources down there that Alex could hook up (probably not copper or iron, but maybe horses).