I don't know why we are moving away from Drama. It solves the most basic needs we have and serves to be a great tech to trade to the AI that's mostly harmless and will yield things like Mathematics and Monarchy and literature (actually HR too, but we don't need it). Math, which you need for CS anyways.
ETA: I would only chop with mathematics and if then only one tile at the most. The later health issues will be the limiting factor and lumbermills are a significant chunk of hammers in the late game that we can't get anywhere else.
We must also calculate the benefit to grow quickly to the health cap and even over, against the benefit to reach CS straightly.
By intuition i can affirm that a detour on Drama we'll pay for itself in the short-mid term, maybe we can reach CS in the same 80th turn WT targeted, but with a problem solved and one more tech to trade.
Hmm, perhaps we need to analyse this before we play on. It's past my bedtime , but perhaps everyone will come up with the answer in the 25 posts while I'm asleep.
I'm going to limit myself to 2 posts per day unless I'm directly asked a question. I feel some people are getting lost or left out with my over-responsivness.
Drama: Globe sounds so good and I wanted to prove it was worth it, but this should explain the problem: Without any chops, it will take ~31 turns to finish glib, theatre, globe. Now you still need a granary before turning on the food, so 36 turns. That's turn 91. A forest chop will save you 3 turns.
This also means you can't finish that barracks (hammers spent on it already will be lost), and we won't have any more military.
We should get that Fur back and trade for gold or something I would hope (or 1 temple). That gets us to size 6. Keep in mind, it takes us 3 turns to get to size 5, it takes 12 more turns to grow from 5 to 6, then we can put 12 more turns of food heading to 7. That's turn 82. We should have HR and CS by then.
So it's really just that 1 happy to get us to 5 that we missed out on so far (@#$$% gold tile). Globe doesn't help us with that. We need to pray for Fur or gold or religion either way we go. If we go the Globe route, we would then have to build a temple too! Or be stuck at size 4 until turn 91.
- Blub's attack plan for the next TS sounds good, remembering to check for resource trades every turn.
Did anyone calculate when that Fur comes back to us?
RE: cottage. We should think long term. That cottage (with Bureau) is WAY better than a farm. We're going to run out of health, so the farm simply feeds the farmer. Only after Biology does it actually supply 1 food -- town is +9!
Forest chops: The problem with leaving the forests is that now you have a large population and nowhere to work. EVERY grass tile will have to be a cottage soon after we go into explosive growth mode. Those trees will go into the University and Oxford among other things. We should plan to keep 4 forests for a while. Luckily our deer and fur have them. No need to chop those.
Pecking order. Ya'll can go crazy trying to sort that out. I go by general rules:
Never cancel deals, always give into demands for tech or gold. Never change religion or civics. Never agree to war. Of course rules are made to be broken, but that's the general approach I take. Most of these -1 effects fade over time, so I won't always give away CS, for example.
Closing borders: I think the ocean keeps us connected, but if not, watch out closing so many borders could cut us off from resource trades.
@culdeus: Math is not needed for CS (that's BTS), but we'll get it for chopping.
Health:
i can count 10 forest tiles, including the furs evil in our BFC.
As is, they give +5health (we can now see +4, cuz furs are outside ).
I suppose we can mine the hills (3), cottage the riverside (1) farm east (1 - after CS)
edit: no, we can't farm east, the city is on a hill. If we want a farm it should be on the riverside, thus E or N. To be honest i don't see why we want a farm, whit all that food around.
edit 2: Crossposted with WT.
hmm, pity your calculations seem correct.
Perhaps with the academy we'll have those furs back in 10-15 turns, and this will bring us to size 5.
As you see i agree about cottages, perhaps we can farm the plains on the river.
With our culture we can soon have back the furs, the silver and the whales, and after the Globe we can trade them for healthy resources.
Anyway if Drama does not come in trade, we can start it after CS, when everything will speed up, thanks to the +50%
Not that I necessarily advocate going for it, but drama does open up the possibility of upping the culture slider for a few turns to get the furs back.
@WT: I was joking about how many posts were being written. It is great to see so much discussion, and I feel it greatly improves the game. In fact there seems to be a critical point where not enough discussion makes people disinterested in the game, it's happened a in a few previous sgotms. So, keep up the chatter, I say.
There was such juicy new information to digest and discuss that I just couldn't shut up. But no one seemed to be around and I don't like seeing my posts line up for five or six in a row so I thought editing would be a good way to split the difference. (And still not have to shut up! )
I'm going to limit myself to 2 posts per day unless I'm directly asked a question. I feel some people are getting lost or left out with my over-responsivness.
I'm going to miss that responsiveness. Guess that means we're going to have to draw him out, teammates. I've got no problem turning my ignorance into direct questions. If we all do the same thing with one or two questions per day, everyone here will be back up to our fun-quota in no time!
@WT: I was joking about how many posts were being written. It is great to see so much discussion, and I feel it greatly improves the game. In fact there seems to be a critical point where not enough discussion makes people disinterested in the game, it's happened a in a few previous sgotms. So, keep up the chatter, I say.
Yeah, I agree. I haven't seen anything posted here that was irrelevant or unnecessary. This has been a great thread and the free-ranging discussion is what makes it so much fun. Frankly, I haven't even started BOTM 05. I might even miss the submission deadline because I'm having such a good time here -- and I don't really care or even feel like I'm missing anything.
Thanks! It is good to get some reassurance that I'm not just driving y'all crazy. Let me return the thanks to all of you though: I like being on a team that both has attitude and at the same time sense enough to remember to have fun and not take themselves or the game too seriously.
Here is my best shot at trying to predict when the fur tile will flip back to us. It isn't an exact science though -- mostly because so much depends on what, if any, culture buildings Washington has built or is going to build in New York. Here is the bottom line:
By my calculations (which are probably wrong), the earliest the fur tile is likely to flip back to us is on or about Turn 69. This is an optimistic guestimation though, as it depends on a slow second border expansion in New York. If his borders expand again before the tile flips, then the delay will be longer -- maybe a lot longer.
A "Plot Culture" Model/Analysis of the Fur Tile
Spoiler:
A "Plot Culture" Model for the Fur Tile
The fur tile is two tiles from Beijing, so it is in "Ring 2" for purposes of calculating Beijing's cultural influence on the tile. Beijing's culture has been determined by the factors listed below since the beginning of our game.
Beijing:
Cultural Events and Buildings Associated with Beijing:
(cpt = Culture Per Turn)
Turn 0: +2 Culture per turn from the palace
Turn 5: Border Expansion #1 (Ring 1 = +22 cpt; Ring 2 = +2 cpt)
Turn 42: Library Ready (Ring 1 = +24 cpt; Ring 2 = +4 cpt)
Turn 45: Border Expansion #2 (Ring 1 = +42 cpt; Ring 2 = +22 cpt; Ring 3 = +2 cpt)
Turn 59: Academy Ready (Ring 1 = +48 cpt; Ring 2 = +28 cpt; Ring 3 = +8 cpt)
Turn 66: Great Library Projected to be Ready (Ring 1 = +56 cpt; Ring 2 = +36 cpt; Ring 3 = +16 cpt)
Turn 82ish: Border Expansion #3 (Ring 1 = +76 cpt; Ring 2 = +56 cpt; Ring 3 = +36 cpt; Ring 4 = +16 cpt)
What We Know About New York's Influence on the Fur Tile:
Turn 33: Chinese influence @ 82% (WastinTime)
Turn 35: New York's 1st Border Expansion observed & Chinese influence @ 68% (WastinTime)
Turn 36: Chinese influence @ 59% (WastinTime)
Turn 37: Fur Tile Flip to American control observed (Sweetacshon)
Turn 46: American influence @ 66% (Sweetacshon)
Turn 55: American influence @ 56% (WastinTime)
note 1: New York was first observed on Turn 11 & probably founded (technically) on turn 10.
note 2: Washington converted to Hinduism on turn 16.
note 3: Hinduism was first reported actually seen in New York on turn 23.
Methodology:
Okay, now let's consider the cultural influence that New York is having on the fur tile. It would be difficult, to say the least, to calculate the cultural influence New York is having on the tile in the same way we calculated the influence Beijing is having on the tile because we lack complete information about the cultural buildings and other influences (religion, religious buldings, settled great persons, etc.) that might be impacting on the calculation. We can do two things though: (1) Try to figure out the initial tile value changes to explain the first flip, and (2) estimate the current American plot culture in the tile to try to predict the return flip.
Method #1: Initial "Plot Culture" Guesswork:
Here is my best guess at the initial values, though I had to fudge a few things from the culture mechanics article to make it work even tolerably well. For one thing, I had to assume that the fur tile did not get the normal automatic 1 point of culture from the founding of the city (New York). I'm guessing that maybe since the tile was already owned by another civ (us) it doesn't get the first "free" one point of plot culture? For another thing, I had to assume the latest possible date for Hinduism's arrival in New York in order to make the numbers add up. (We don't really have any hard evidence I could find showing when Hinduism actually did arrive in New York). Finally, the autolog turn date vs. observed consequence turn date (one turn later) thing is very annoying again here. I THINK the "plot culture" value balance tips one turn ahead of the turn when its consequences are actually observed by opponents (us) in the game, but I don't really pretend to understand this very well.
American "Plot Culture" in the Fur Tile:
Turn 11: 0 <----- New York Founded (or first observed, anyway)
Turn 12: 0
Turn 13: 0
Turn 14: 0
Turn 15: 0
Turn 16: 0
Turn 17: 0
Turn 18: 0
Turn 19: 0
Turn 20: 0
Turn 21: 0
Turn 22: 0
Turn 23: 0 <----- Hinduism First observed in New York
Turn 24: 0+1=1 <----- Don't know why the +1 wouldn't start until one turn later? (fudge)
Turn 25: 1+1=2
Turn 26: 2+1=3
Turn 27: 3+1=4
Turn 28: 4+1=5
Turn 29: 5+1=6
Turn 30: 6+1=7
Turn 31: 7+1=8
Turn 32: 8+1=9
Turn 33: 9+1=10
Turn 34: 10+21=31 <----- Border Expansion #1: +20 cpt (should be on t33?)
Turn 35: 31+21=52 <----- The expansion is visible to us here
Turn 36: 52+21=73 <----- (vs. China = 64; balance tips here)
Turn 37: 73+21=94 <----- Fur Flip observed here
Turn 38: 94+21=115
Method #2: Guesstimating Current American "Plot Culture" in the Fur Tile:
Because no 3rd civ's culture is influencing the tile, we can estimate (or guesstimate) American "plot culture" in the tile by using the cultural influence percent found by mousing over the tile. For example, on turn 55, WT reports that American culture in the tile is at 56%. Therefore:
IF: American Plot Culture on turn 55 = 56%
THEN: Chinese Plot Culture on turn 55 = 44%
Chinese Plot culture on turn 54 (reflected in turn 55 mouseover) = 306
note: this number is taken from "Chinese Plot Culture in the Fur Tile" in the Beijing data list above.
SO:
Total Plot Culture in the tile for both civs on turn 54 must be: (306/44) x 100 = 695.45
THUS:
American Plot Culture in the tile must be about: 695 - 306 = 389
AND SO:
Chinese Plot Culture = 306 of 695 = 44%
American Plot Culture = 389 of 695 = 55% (supposed to be 56% -- rounding fudge?)
OTHER TURN GUESSTIMATIONS:
Turn 33: Chinese influence @ 82%: Chinese PC @ t32 = 56, American PC = 12*
Turn 35: Chinese influence @ 68%: Chinese PC @ t34 = 60, American PC = 28*
Turn 36: Chinese influence @ 59%: Chinese PC @ t35 = 62, American PC = 43*
Turn 46: American influence @ 66%: Chinese PC @ t45 = 90, American PC = 174
Turn 55: American influence @ 56%: Chinese PC @ t54 = 306, American PC = 389
*note: yes, I know these numbers don't match the ones given in method #1 above (obviously something isn't right somewhere).
FURTHER (Optimistic Projection):
We can assume American Plot Culture is growing in the fur tile at a rate of at least +21 cpt.
At +21 cpt (American) the following projection can be made for a flip back to Chinese control:
Turn 54: 282+24=306 China | America = 389 (55% [56%] American)
Turn 55: 306+24=330 China | America = 389+21=410 (55%)
Turn 56: 330+24=354 China | America = 410+21=431 (54%)
Turn 57: 354+24=378 China | America = 431+21=452 (54%)
Turn 58: 378+24=402 China | America = 452+21=473 (54%)
Turn 59: 402+28=430 China | America = 473+21=494 (53%)
Turn 60: 430+28=458 China | America = 494+21=515 (52%)
Turn 61: 458+28=486 China | America = 515+21=536 (52%)
Turn 62: 486+28=514 China | America = 536+21=557 (52%)
Turn 63: 514+28=542 China | America = 557+21=578 (51%)
Turn 64: 542+28=570 China | America = 578+21=599 (51%)
Turn 65: 570+28=598 China | America = 599+21=620 (50%)
Turn 66: 598+36=634 China | America = 620+21=641 (50%)
Turn 67: 634+36=660 China | America = 641+21=662 (50%)
Turn 68: 660+36=696 China | America = 662+21=683 <----- Here is the flip (optimistic tho)
Turn 69: 696+36=732 China | America = 683+21=704 <----- We'd see the flip here.
Turn 70: 732+36=768 China | America = 704+21=725
Turn 71: 768+36=804 China | America = 725+21=746
Turn 72: 804+36=840 China | America = 746+21=767
CAVEATS:
The model above assumes the least possible culture for America. If Washington builds/built a temple in New York, the return flip will take longer. Also, I would expect Beijing's next cultural border expansion to occur somewhere around turn 80-85. That will be our big boost, as the tile will receive an additional +20 Chinese culture. On the other hand, New York's next border expansion could happen as early as about 40 turns after its first expansion (i.e. on turn 55), depending on what gets built. Obviously it hasn't happened yet because we are on turn 55 and we haven't seen it. Still, that expansion could happen at any time now and if it does it will further delay the return of our fur -- meaning we might not get it back until the 90s or later.
The "Short" Reference Version:
Turn 54: 282+24=306 China | America = 389 (55% [56%] American)
Turn 55: 306+24=330 China | America = 389+21=410 (55%)
Turn 56: 330+24=354 China | America = 410+21=431 (54%)
Turn 57: 354+24=378 China | America = 431+21=452 (54%)
Turn 58: 378+24=402 China | America = 452+21=473 (54%)
Turn 59: 402+28=430 China | America = 473+21=494 (53%)
Turn 60: 430+28=458 China | America = 494+21=515 (52%)
Turn 61: 458+28=486 China | America = 515+21=536 (52%)
Turn 62: 486+28=514 China | America = 536+21=557 (52%)
Turn 63: 514+28=542 China | America = 557+21=578 (51%)
Turn 64: 542+28=570 China | America = 578+21=599 (51%)
Turn 65: 570+28=598 China | America = 599+21=620 (50%)
Turn 66: 598+36=634 China | America = 620+21=641 (50%)
Turn 67: 634+36=660 China | America = 641+21=662 (50%)
Turn 68: 660+36=696 China | America = 662+21=683 <----- Here is the flip (optimistic tho)
Turn 69: 696+36=732 China | America = 683+21=704 <----- We'd see the flip here.
CAVEATS:
The model above assumes the least possible culture for America. If Washington builds/built a temple in New York, the return flip will take longer. Also, I would expect Beijing's next cultural border expansion to occur somewhere around turn 80-85. That will be our big boost, as the tile will receive an additional +20 Chinese culture. On the other hand, New York's next border expansion could happen as early as about 40 turns after its first expansion (i.e. on turn 55), depending on what gets built. Obviously it hasn't happened yet because we are on turn 55 and we haven't seen it. Still, that expansion could happen at any time now and if it does it will further delay the return of our fur -- meaning we might not get it back until the 90s or later.
@ Sabre (#1): When and if we move the worker through the furs to get to the river grasslands tile, could you get a decent screenshot or two of New York? As close-up as possible (and with troops "disappeared" -- if possible)? Maybe we can see if they've built anything interesting there. [Duh... or maybe I'll just check the save when I get home tomorrow night. Never mind. I need to get some sleep...]
@ Sabre (#2): Also, if we can get a running tally of the culture % on the fur tile for several turns it might help us to more accurately guesstimate the possible "fur-flip" date.
Now, I'm tired. Got a busy day tomorrow too... Probably no more harassment from me again until late tomorrow night.
Don't get me wrong, I love work... Okay, well, it isn't really that bad (most of the time).
@ Sabre (#1): When and if we move the worker through the furs to get to the river grasslands tile, could you get a decent screenshot or two of New York? As close-up as possible (and with troops "disappeared" -- if possible)? Maybe we can see if they've built anything interesting there. [Duh... or maybe I'll just check the save when I get home tomorrow night. Never mind. I need to get some sleep...] I was going to suggest that - if you zoom in nice and close, you should be able to see obelisks, temples, libraries, etc.
@ Sabre (#2): Also, if we can get a running tally of the culture % on the fur tile for several turns it might help us to more accurately guesstimate the possible "fur-flip" date. Also, you could run your model on another tile to see how accurate it is. We are allowed to use the previous save from the results page for this (again, no irreversible actions allowed).
I resume here the goals for Sabre, edited with the latest contributions:
- trade IW to Asoka for Priesthood, it's a sh*t, but do it!,
- keep that "avoid growth" on to avoid accidental growth, but still MM the city until the GS will pop,
- build the academy,
- finish the axe, then barracks until Literature comes on line
- to build the GLib, use the most hammer-rich tiles, while keep the city at 4, forget the specialists (after the GS will pop),
- cottage the GLforest E of the river, if we don't have Math before it's cottaged, stop to build a road, and try to trade for math ASAP,
- Literature is due in 2, IIRC so after you've traded for PH in the inherited turn, you can start CoL.
- Stay alive!
Repetita juvant: the GLib has precedence over anything else, but after the GS is popped.
We can in any moment take a detour on Drama, but after CoL, or after the academy, so we'll know how much it costs.
BTW Balth, in your calculations have you considered the Academy (+4c) at turn 60?
edit: i've seen you did.
Sabre yes, keep an eye on reources and techs trades every turn (remember to scroll with the arrow in the bottom-right), even if i think we can't see a luxury until calendar or if JC manages to have back that gold.
Dutch, you're next after Sabre, so i don't think the problem will show until next round.
Since a TS uses 2 days in average, your next one will happen after your exams. In case you can swap ante or post, as you wish.
Merumwork the 2 crabs and the 2 rocks we grow (but we got the AG-button on)
I think it's enough work a forrested plain hill to boost our production from time to time.
BTW team: what about mine a plain hill after the cottage?
Hold on, let's be clear, we don't want our food to go anywhere near that. It should be kept 1-2 turns from growing to size 5 at all times in case something good happens to us for a change. Only work a forest/plains/hill for 1 turn occasionally.
Mine a PH after cottage. No. We won't work it. We can't until we grow to size 5, once that happens we'll continue to grow towards 6. Soon after we go into HR and explosive growth. We'll need the grass forests chopped and save the PH for health and lumbermills some day.
I plan on alternating food/hammers to keep within a turn of growth, which is what I believe BLubmuz was doing. Anyways, I agree we should stay close to growth to take advantage of any happy bonuses we gain.
I'm taking one last pass through the last few pages taking notes and then I'm playing my turnset. We're war deccing Washington this turn right?
If anyone is on right now - something has come up.
Incense is available for trade. Can we get a happy bonus for this before Calendar? I'll look around and see if I can find an answer.
edit - as far as I can tell, Calendar only enables plantation building and a plantation is required to harvest a resource but I see no limitations on who can use a resource that's harvested. I'm guessing we can use the incense, so I'll accept.
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, but perhaps everyone will come up with the answer in the 25 posts while I'm asleep. 
evil
).
(Actually, work is more like 
.)
But no one seemed to be around and I don't like seeing my posts line up for five or six in a row 
so I thought editing would be a good way to split the difference. (And still not have to shut up! 
I'm going to miss that responsiveness. Guess that means we're going to have to draw him out, teammates. 
I've got no problem turning my ignorance into direct questions. 
Never mind. I need to get some sleep...]
Probably no more harassment from me again until late tomorrow night. 
Okay, well, it isn't really that bad (most of the time). 
