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SGOTM 07 - Murky Waters

Hey Erkon, for those of us who can't look at the save, could you add your last turn to your turnset report?
 
Because the decision who gets the tile between team mates, is not based on culture if it's in the city radius of both, but on distance to the city. There is a special metric applied just for this case which means after culture expansion NY will also have the tile 2W.
And he will not bomb, if America is away.
Okay. Thanks. No biggie. Then I think our best bet is to settle our GA in Delhi! It will then have 100:culture: in 13 turns max (T174) and New York and Rome don't need to come out of resistance before geographical domination. London would need 10:culture:, but that should happen around that time too. EDIT: Okay, I forgot about Washington's borders expanding after London. Either Washington or NY also need 10:culture: or Rome has to come out of resistance.

My latest two dot maps are below and they assume KK captures all cities on our continent. Hopefully I haven't missed anything.

EDIT2: Updated to show the two tiles for Washington's 10:culture: border expansion.
.
 
Well there is a possibility that without a culture bomb york revolts if we are slow in taking washington. I do not think this is very likely, but it should be considered as the city will not produce any culture during those turns, and it will be more vulnerable to attack.

jesusin should ensure that his unit placement and DOW timing for the assault on wash's cities allow for the defense of york, bb, and to a lesser extent Murky against an initial response.
 
Report updated. jesusin, back to you now :D

Autolog (could not fit into the other posts)
Spoiler :
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (1 turns)
Grenadier promoted: Pinch
Murkyopolis finishes: Cannon

IBT:
Attitude Change: Washington(America) towards Asoka(India), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Julius Caesar(Rome) towards Catherine(Russia), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Asoka(India) towards SGOTM07(China), from 'Annoyed' to 'Furious'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Civics Change: Saladin(Arabia) from 'Mercantilism' to 'Free Market'

Turn 152/460 (840 AD) [07-Jul-2008 20:18:49]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (2 turns)
Murkyopolis begins: Longbowman (1 turns)
Tech learned: Nationalism
While attacking in Indian territory at Bombay, Cannon loses to: Indian Maceman (2.72/8) (Prob Victory: 75.9%)
While attacking in Indian territory at Bombay, Cannon defeats (8.40/12): Indian Longbowman (Prob Victory: 95.7%)
While attacking in Indian territory at Bombay, Grenadier defeats (7.80/12): Indian Maceman (Prob Victory: 99.7%)
Murkyopolis finishes: Longbowman

IBT:
Attitude Change: Washington(America) towards Asoka(India), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Asoka(India) towards Hatshepsut(Egypt), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) towards Saladin(Arabia), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Asoka(India), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Asoka(India), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Civics Change: Washington(America) from 'Slavery' to 'Serfdom'
Civics Change: Asoka(India) from 'Hereditary Rule' to 'Representation'
Civics Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) from 'Bureaucracy' to 'Vassalage'
Civics Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) from 'Decentralization' to 'State Property'

Turn 153/460 (860 AD) [07-Jul-2008 22:54:09]
Murkyopolis begins: Maceman (1 turns)
While attacking in the wild near Delhi, Grenadier defeats (10.08/12): Indian Musketman (Prob Victory: 89.4%)
While attacking in the wild at Bombay, Grenadier defeats (9.96/12): Indian Longbowman (Prob Victory: 75.1%)
Murkyopolis finishes: Maceman

IBT:
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Asoka(India), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'

Turn 154/460 (880 AD) [08-Jul-2008 00:04:44]
Murkyopolis begins: Globe Theatre (2 turns)
Maceman promoted: City Raider I
Maceman promoted: City Raider II
Murkyopolis finishes: Globe Theatre

IBT:
Attitude Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'

Turn 155/460 (900 AD) [08-Jul-2008 13:38:52]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (1 turns)
Murkyopolis begins: Maceman (1 turns)
Murkyopolis finishes: Maceman

IBT:
While defending in Indian territory at Delhi, Cannon defeats (5.52/12): Indian Musketman (Prob Victory: 73.2%)
Attitude Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Civics Change: Mansa Musa(Mali) from 'Mercantilism' to 'Free Market'

Turn 156/460 (920 AD) [08-Jul-2008 15:07:27]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (2 turns)
Maceman promoted: City Raider I
Maceman promoted: City Raider II
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in Indian territory at Delhi, Cannon loses to: Indian Musketman (0.72/9) (Prob Victory: 78.3%)
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in Indian territory at Delhi, Cannon defeats (3.00/12): Indian Musketman (Prob Victory: 96.6%)
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in Indian territory at Delhi, Cannon defeats (6.96/12): Indian Longbowman (Prob Victory: 99.3%)
While attacking in Indian territory at Delhi, Grenadier defeats (8.64/12): Indian Longbowman (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
While attacking in Indian territory at Delhi, Grenadier defeats (6.96/12): Indian Longbowman (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
SGOTM07/Kublai Khan(China) declares war on Elizabeth(England)
Murkyopolis finishes: Cannon

IBT:
Attitude Change: Hatshepsut(Egypt) towards Catherine(Russia), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Elizabeth(England) towards SGOTM07(China), from 'Pleased' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Elizabeth(England) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Annoyed' to 'Furious'
Attitude Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Pleased' to 'Annoyed'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards SGOTM07(China), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Civics Change: Cyrus(Persia) from 'Mercantilism' to 'Free Market'

Turn 157/460 (940 AD) [09-Jul-2008 08:46:26]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (2 turns)
While attacking in Indian territory at Delhi, Cannon defeats (5.28/12): Indian Pikeman (Prob Victory: 92.3%)
While attacking in English territory at London, Frigate defeats (7.04/8): English Caravel (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
While attacking in American territory near New York, Grenadier defeats (9.96/12): English Musketman (Prob Victory: 78.3%)
While attacking in the wild at Cuzco, Cannon defeats (9.96/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 97.2%)
While attacking in American territory at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (12.00/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
While attacking in American territory at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (8.64/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 100.0%)
While attacking in the wild at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (12.00/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
Murkyopolis finishes: Cannon

IBT:
While defending in English territory at York, Grenadier defeats (9.12/12): English Catapult (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
Indian Empire has been eliminated
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Kublai Khan(Mongolia), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'

Turn 158/460 (960 AD) [09-Jul-2008 10:46:08]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (2 turns)
While attacking in English territory at London, Frigate defeats (3.92/8): English Caravel (Prob Victory: 98.5%)
Frigate promoted: Combat I
Frigate promoted: Combat I
Cannon promoted: City Raider III
Grenadier promoted: Medic II
While attacking in the wild at Cuzco, Cannon defeats (6.36/12): English Crossbowman (Prob Victory: 85.8%)
Grenadier promoted: Combat I
While attacking in American territory at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (7.20/12): English Crossbowman (Prob Victory: 99.4%)
Grenadier promoted: Combat III
While attacking in American territory at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (8.64/12): English War Elephant (Prob Victory: 99.2%)
While attacking in American territory at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (5.28/12): English Pikeman (Prob Victory: 99.3%)
Grenadier promoted: Combat III
While attacking in the wild at Cuzco, Grenadier defeats (10.32/12): English Pikeman (Prob Victory: 100.0%)
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (5.88/12): English Maceman (Prob Victory: 77.3%)
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (6.60/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 96.0%)
While attacking in English territory at York, Grenadier defeats (8.04/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 99.8%)
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (10.08/12): English Longbowman (Prob Victory: 98.2%)
While attacking in American territory at York, Grenadier defeats (12.00/12): English War Elephant (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
Grenadier promoted: Combat II
While attacking in English territory at York, Grenadier defeats (9.36/12): English Crossbowman (Prob Victory: 94.8%)
Murkyopolis finishes: Cannon

IBT:
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Mansa Musa(Mali), from 'Pleased' to 'Friendly'

Turn 159/460 (980 AD) [09-Jul-2008 16:29:10]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (1 turns)
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
Grenadier promoted: Pinch
While attacking in English territory at York, Grenadier defeats (5.64/12): English Musketman (Prob Victory: 97.0%)
While attacking in the wild at Cuzco, Cannon defeats (2.40/12): English Pikeman (Prob Victory: 92.7%)
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (7.68/12): English Pikeman (Prob Victory: 99.3%)
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (12.00/12): English Catapult (Prob Victory: 99.5%)
While attacking in English territory at York, Grenadier loses to: English Musketman (4.86/9) (Prob Victory: 61.9%)
Murkyopolis finishes: Cannon

IBT:
Civics Change: Hatshepsut(Egypt) from 'Decentralization' to 'Free Market'

Turn 160/460 (1000 AD) [09-Jul-2008 17:11:32]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (2 turns)
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (7.68/12): English Musketman (Prob Victory: 87.0%)
Cannon promoted: City Raider I
Cannon promoted: City Raider II
While attacking in American territory at York, Cannon defeats (10.32/12): English Maceman (Prob Victory: 99.1%)
While attacking in English territory at York, Grenadier defeats (7.68/12): English Catapult (Prob Victory: 99.9%)
Murkyopolis finishes: Cannon

IBT:
Attitude Change: Washington(America) towards Cyrus(Persia), from 'Annoyed' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Kublai Khan(Mongolia) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Annoyed' to 'Furious'
Attitude Change: Catherine(Russia) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Pleased' to 'Cautious'
Attitude Change: Louis XIV(France) towards Elizabeth(England), from 'Cautious' to 'Annoyed'
Civics Change: Elizabeth(England) from 'Hereditary Rule' to 'Representation'
Civics Change: Elizabeth(England) from 'Decentralization' to 'Free Market'

Turn 161/460 (1010 AD) [09-Jul-2008 17:49:40]
Murkyopolis begins: Cannon (1 turns)
 
Please notice everyone that all specialists generate 2 cpt (from Sistine Chapel). jesusin needs to keep track of any specialists running in the critical cities.
 
klarius - is there any chance if NY is captured before wash kk will decide to raze it?
Not if he isn't in "financial trouble".

But BTW, revolts and/or flips are not that unlikely. Bombay has around 8% revolt probability, IIRC. York will be similar once Liz is gone.
 
Nice testing, but that's for cities w/o culture, which means we have 50% team culture (1 for us and 1 for the enemy).
If our team culture is 0% (normal case for these old cities) it's:
3+pop/2 so e.g. 10 turns for pop 14.
Okay, let's take a cold, calculating view of how to arrive at the tile domination limit asap. (Help me out with any misunderstandings, please, klarius.)

London
I figure KK will capture London IT of T163/164 if jesusin sends those 4 units there. I assume London now has an empty granary, having lost pop1 in the last few turns. Since KK will have no mercy with his pillaging frigates, by T163, London should be at pop12 or pop13. Resistance = 3 + 6 = 9t. London comes out of resistance on T172 and then expands cultural borders in 2-5 turns depending on whether KK uses an artist (2t), an engineer (3t), or no specialist (5t). T177 at the latest, if KK doesn't dawdle capturing London.

Washington
pop12 after capture => resistance: 9t => time to expand borders: 11-14t from turn of capture.

New York
pop7 after capture => resistance: 6t => time to expand borders: 8-11t from turn of capture. (klarius: Would NY resistance be 1t shorter for pop7, since we have culture on that plot?)

Rome
pop11 after capture => resistance: 8t from turn of capture.

Conclusions:
1. Our date of tile domination will be probably be determined by Wash or NY at 10:culture: or Rome coming out of resistance.
2. Erkon says the Rome attack force can arrive at Rome in 7t, so it appears that KK could capture Rome on about T169 => tile domination on T177. (I gave jesusin 2 turns to red-line those 21 units... ;))

By comparison:
For T177, Washington has to be captured T166, best-case scenario, T163, worst-case scenario.

For T177, New York has to be captured T169, best-case scenario, or T166, worst-case scenario.
 
Washington
pop12 after capture => resistance: 9t => time to expand borders: 11-14t from turn of capture.

IIRC Washington has the hanging gardens and will pop borders in 2 turns after coming out of resistance.

EDIT: 1 turn if it's been there for at least 1000 years.

Edit: so prioritize NY and Rome. Or could we even raze NY and have Wash at 2x expansion by the time Rome is out of resistance?
 
I estimate the following turns (they can of course vary a lot depending on the success at London):
If the Hamburg stack goes south, I think it's reasonable to estimate the capture of Rome in about 10 turns, and Washington in perhaps 12 turns and NY in 15 turns. If we send parts of the Hamburg stack north, we will get Washington in about 10 turns, and NY in 12. Rome will then fall in ~12 turns.
 
IIRC Washington has the hanging gardens and will pop borders in 2 turns after coming out of resistance.

EDIT: 1 turn if it's been there for at least 1000 years.

Edit: so prioritize NY and Rome. Or could we even raze NY and have Wash at 2x expansion by the time Rome is out of resistance?

Captured wonders don't generate culture, do they?
 
IIRC Washington has the hanging gardens and will pop borders in 2 turns after coming out of resistance.

EDIT: 1 turn if it's been there for at least 1000 years.

Edit: so prioritize NY and Rome. Or could we even raze NY and have Wash at 2x expansion by the time Rome is out of resistance?
Hanging Gardens will be great for the +1:health:, but I thought wonders don't contribute culture when you've captured them from someone else.

My post above refers only to land tile domination. We also need to cover the pop domination limit and I don't think we can afford to raze any cities. We need to grow KK's pop as much as possible and keep our fingers crossed. We need to get KK clams and farm and road his Athens corn for health too. Antium has a lot of potential after Biology.

>>>crossed with Erkon<<<
 
New York
pop7 after capture => resistance: 6t => time to expand borders: 8-11t from turn of capture. (klarius: Would NY resistance be 1t shorter for pop7, since we have culture on that plot?)
I don't have NY's exact american culture percentage here. But it's in the 60-70% range. That means, at size 6 (same at 7), 4-5 turns of resistance.
Formula

We can still also think to use the GA to bomb Washington or Bombay.
 
Captured wonders don't generate culture, do they?

I thought I remembered that they did but since I don't do too much capturing in my solo games I am probably wrong. Sorry.

Easy way to tell for sure is open York and see if Lizzie's old wonders have :culture: by them.
 
I don't have NY's exact american culture percentage here. But it's in the 60-70% range. That means, at size 6 (same at 7), 4-5 turns of resistance.
Formula

We can still also think to use the GA to bomb Washington or Bombay.
Wow! Talk about splitting hairs! It's 66% right now, which gives 1.98 + 3 = 4t. 67% gives 5t resistance. :lol:
 
I estimate the following turns (they can of course vary a lot depending on the success at London):
If the Hamburg stack goes south, I think it's reasonable to estimate the capture of Rome in about 10 turns, and Washington in perhaps 12 turns and NY in 15 turns. If we send parts of the Hamburg stack north, we will get Washington in about 10 turns, and NY in 12. Rome will then fall in ~12 turns.
How many units would you be sending to Rome in each scenario?
 
How many units would you be sending to Rome in each scenario?

Quick Rome:

Gren + Cannon (S-SW York), move to 2E of Antium on T165
Cannon (E of Cuzco) and Gren (E-NE of Cuzco), move to Hamburg, heal, enter Roman lands on T166
Cannon (NW of Hamburg), heal in place, enter Roman lands on T165 (cow S-SW of Madrid?)
3xCannons + 5xGren in Hamburg depart when healed. Enter Roman lands on T165 (from SW, W and NW).

Total units used: 6xCannons + 7xGrens

Slow Rome:
Cannon (NW of Hamburg), heal in place, enter Roman lands on T165 (cow S-SW of Madrid?)
3xCannons + 5xGren in Hamburg depart when healed. Enter Roman lands on T165 (from SW, W and NW).

Total units used: 4xCannons + 5xGrens

It's mandatory that no units are within 2 tiles of Rome to ensure he evacuates.

It's suitable to declare one turn in advance to see where his stack goes (i.e. DoW in T164). Our units will not be in place, but can counter his move, and thus save us a turn.

PS: is it suitable to CF Liz once London falls?
 
I got it!

PPP expected tomorrow night.
Playing expected Sunday morning, unless discussions advise otherwise.
 
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