Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Apr 17, 2008.
Ok, here it is.
You're right, we do have carry-over, but it isn't actually added to the next research project until after one turn. I guess the reason is that during this turn we can actually flip-flop between different techs as much as we like, it's not until we press end turn that we've actually committed to one of them and the overflow is added. But unfortunately we have no way of checking how large that overflow will be. We only know that we had 43 beakers invested last turn (not 44 for some reason) and that we had an output of 40 before bonuses. So most likely we'll had 87 beakers in the bin at the start of this turn, before those for Myst were deducted.
EDIT: x-post - thanks Renata, I'll have a look at it right away!
Initial review - very good! I haven't checked every detail of every line, but I don't see any obvious errors. And the idea to "starve" while waiting for the granary to complete is really clever.
I'm pretty sure we will keep the Furs for the next two turns, probably we will lose it ~X/3 turns after NY's next border expansion, where X is the number of turns until that expansion happens. Though the longer until that happens, the faster we will likely reclaim them again. Regardless, it seems to me like it should be possible to quite easily engineer your sheet to avoid growth to pop 8 in case we can't sustain it, and still get GLib on the same turn.
Two minor nitpicks that won't affect the situation any - the 85 beakers on turn 70 is actually Priesthood, not Archery. And unfortunately we won't get +8% known-to-others bonuses on Polytheism, that would have required that all our contacts had it. With 2 contacts the bonus is 3% (it's [0.3*X/18] where X is the number of contacts that have it and 18 the total number in the game - in other words 1-3-5-6-8-10 and then cycle +10). This might become a problem with reaching CS in time, but much water will run under the bridges of Beijing before that.
Picky, picky. (Both of you. )
Are you ready to play on then, Niklas?
No, it's [0.3*X/18] and nothing else. 0.3*2/18= 0.03333...
I'm almost ready to play yes. I'm looking at a few minor tweaks to your sheet that might prove useful, I'll post my ideas on that in a while.
Also, just to be totally clear on the diplomatic situation:
- We trade Alphabet to Washington for IW, probably earning some nice trading merits.
- We trade Alphabet to Asoka for Maths, potentially giving us some trading merits there too.
- We trade for OB with HC.
I was also going to suggest that we gift Furs to Washington for the next few turns. We'll likely lose them to him anyway so we can't rely on them for our growth. Also, it's 9 turns until we expect to grow, we could easily delay that by one turn with few effects should the Furs still be in our possession (and no religion in sight). I'm torn on this issue, but I wanted to put it out there anyway.
It is also far more than 10 turns until we need Copper. Do we even consider giving that away for a while?
Finally, do we gift/trade anything to HC? Since we're trading for Maths with Asoka now we don't really need anything from him in the short run - unless he comes up with Poly of course. Do we gift him Masonry in hoping to improve relations? Or do we want to trade Alpha for Sailing? (I'd say no on that last one, at least until we know there are no chances to trade it for Poly).
Looks good to me, Renata! Very nice timing of growth just after getting silver, and second GS at high speed.
(I also haven't checked thoroughly, btw.)
EDIT: and what do the square brackets mean? round down to nearest multiple of 0.01?
EDIT2: concerning the furs - if we lose the furs, it means we lose one scientist, that we also don't have if we don't grow. Do we gain anything by not growing?
Trading copper is something I tend to be against in general (until late in the game). It is possible the AI has no metal given crowdness of the map, something to take into consideration.
Don't we need the furs the next two turns for extra commerce?
The three listed trades are good. I'm not sure about the rest; I guess I could live with it either way.
Back home and catching up - good work and good analysis.
The trade-for-maths-while-starving plan looks fine to me.
Trading fur seems like a good idea, trading copper not so good.
Trading away the fur resource won't stop us from working the tile for the commerce.
Here's a suggestion for a few modest changes to Renata's proposed plan.
The most important thing is to skip the mine on the river hill for starters and go for the Silver immediately. That will actually save us a worker turn, and means we can grow to size 8 without fear. It also amounts to using the Furs as much as we are able - note that if at any time we lose the furs, we can go back to Renata's plan at that point without losing step, the GLib will still come in time. The idea is that we don't really need to build aggressively while waiting for Literature, and by sacrificing a few hammers short term we can gain quite a lot of growth and research, as well as hammers long term.
Trading away the Furs resource doesn't mean we can't work the Furs tile - so no worries regarding the commerce, which we definitely need. And with my changes to the plan we definitely don't need the Furs short term, not until turn 75 at the earliest. So I suggest we gift it to someone - Washington there too? - to speed up good relations.
I also played around a bit to see if it was possible to get the GLib one turn earlier. Turns out it is possible, assuming everything works to our favor (we keep the furs, no rounding errors in research overflow etc). But it would delay the second GP one turn, and NE one turn. And if we commit to it and suddenly lose the Furs, there'd be no turning around. I'm putting it up here for the fun of it, but I strongly suggest that we don't seriously consider it.
We seem to have a definite consensus to trade for IW and Maths at least, so I'll start with that right away. If we find iron in the BFC, I guess a lot will change...
If "TechTradeKnownPercent" for Capac is 30% towards us, but higher towards the other AI, then perhaps he does not have more contacts after all.
Concerning trades, I would start with Maths, then IW.
If we sign OB with Capac, and he becomes worst enemy for someone, do we get a grace turn to cancel the deal? If so, we could sign this deal, hoping nobody starts to hate him in the coming turns (while we cannot cancel the deal), and then keep an eye on him after that. It is a bit risky, because he might drop to annoyed for some civs if he gets a religion.
I would not trade away copper. Furs seems ok, since we don't get a rep hit if the deal gets cancelled.
Unusual Suspects score and power ratings *skyrocketed* at 1600 BC. Very odd.
Not at all strange - they got Alphabet, traded for BW, then on the turn after traded for IW. Our own numbers just did the same.
Short story: I traded for Maths with Asoka (no fair trade bonus yet), then IW with Washington (+1 fair trade bonus now). We have iron in the ice NW of the Sheep, like unkle predicted. Our score just jumped to 272 (one higher than US) and our Power rating went to 44,000 soldiers - that's the same as Fifth Element who are currently in the lead.
I can play on if you ok my newest spreadsheet. After a dog walk that is.
I am happy with the spreadsheet.
Please comment on the proposed trades as well - OB with HC? Furs to Washington now that we don't need them? Or to someone else?
Niklas and go go go (after the dog of course...)
I'm ok with all of it.
Turns out my wife needs the CIV-capable computer for a while, so I'll likely continue play in something like 30-60 mins.
I'll trade for OB with HC and gift the Furs to Washington, keep the Copper to ourselves. I'll see how far I play, at most up to Literature at any rate.
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