SGOTM 07 - Unusual Suspects

[Morganknight]

Ok, pardon my terminology. I meant that those particular forests should not be cut down, not that we should build preserves there later. My apologies.

 

[Melior Traiano]

Here is my proposed turn set:

0. This turn - we apply 25 research to Lit for a total of 54. Wake worker and send it along the yellow arrow to the first red circle. Start prechopping.

1. 54/100 GP. Next turn - Library is finished, switch production to an axeman, revolt to Representation and Slavery. 0 research. 0 production.

2. 54/100 GP. 33.75 research, 11 hammers (87.75/286 Literature)(11/35 Axeman)

3. 62/100 GP. 33.75 research, 11 hammers (121.50/286 Literature)(22/35 Axeman)

4. 70/100 GP. 33.75 research, 11 hammers (155.25/286 Literature)(33/35 Axeman)

5. 78/100 GP. Switch production to Research - 48.75 research (204/286 Literature)

6. 86/100 GP. 48.75 research (252.75/286 Literature)

7. 94/100 GP. Switch production to ?(*) - 33.75 research, 11 hammers (286.5/286 Literature)(11/? ?(*))

8. 102/100 GP. -We should get our first GP this turn, if it is an Engineer, we have to use him to pop the GL and the rest of this set is moot.- Literature researched, switch research to ?(**), queue up axeman and GL and whip, finish chop - 77 hammers (35/35 Axeman, 187.5/350 GL)

9. Move worker - 17 hammers (230/350 GL)

10. Finish chop, starve a little - 50 hammers (355/350 GL)

11. GL finished

Is population growth factored into this?

 

[Yamps]

Great work Morganknight!

I've been doing some plans myself. It is a bit late now, so I'll post details tomorrow. 36h should be more than enough to discuss this.

I've also concluded GL in 11 turns!

Higlights:

2 chops, lighthouse poping rather than axeman.

Lighthouse is better, I will explain why. There is a concept hammer overflow cap. Have you considered it? I don't have the time right now to study your figures in detail, but I will tomorrow. Need to go sleeping Btw, fraction system is used in bts, not here.

Anyway, axeman can only give 35 hammers in overflow, although you could have more. Extra hammers are converted to gold! For example, overflow of 70 hammers would only yield 35 hammers and rest goes to gold. I've tested this using an old testgame. Lighthouse can provide 60 hammers of overflow.

Forests: I suggest the forest 1S of marble location. (1N is my choice too).There is a road on that tile and we will be able to built irrigation there because of Washington's water. But your forest choice is also fine I think.

Remaing considerations:

Liz progress:
Does somebody have the time and will to evaluate her progress? In particular:

How do deity bonuses work anyway?
How much hammers does she need for GL?
How many beakers did she need for Literacy?
We know when she researched Alpha. If we estimate her beaker input with the maximal rival GNP (+25% Library), how many turns did she need for Literacy?

I think she will finish it in 10-15 turns. She does have Marble and really is mean.


P.S:

queue up axeman and GL and whip, finish chop - 77 hammers (35/35 Axeman, 187.5/350 GL)

This won't work! Try it, I've attached my test game with this situation. I'm sure we'll nail that GL, let's work it out together!

 

[vra379971]

Hello gents.

Looks like things have been proceeding, not smoothly, but this is Civ4 Diety so I'm rather happy with it all in all!

There is one option not considered here btw, and that is a surgical strike. Without looking into it I'm not sure if we can do that but, it is an option. Possibly. Even the WAR declaration might help..?

 

[Yamps]

Hello gents.

There is one option not considered here btw, and that is a surgical strike. Without looking into it I'm not sure if we can do that but, it is an option. Possibly. Even the WAR declaration might help..?

Who would be preforming the surgery? Our only warrior on a brave crusade against the English?

Good to have you back!

 

[shikhee]

I might be missing something - but how do we *know* that Liz is building GL ? Easy enough to know she has Lit and Marble, but I don't understand how you know she's building GL.

I think we should play as though she is of course

I believe its 100% certain we will receive a Great Engineer - but I loath to use him for GL just to save 2-3 turns (unless its 99.99% sure Elizabeth will build it in those turns, even on Deity how good is the computer at optimising for a goal like this?). The input of the GE in our city over this game will be invaluable.

 

[Melior Traiano]

I might be missing something - but how do we *know* that Liz is building GL ? Easy enough to know she has Lit and Marble, but I don't understand how you know she's building GL.

I think we should play as though she is of course

I believe its 100% certain we will receive a Great Engineer - but I loath to use him for GL just to save 2-3 turns (unless its 99.99% sure Elizabeth will build it in those turns, even on Deity how good is the computer at optimising for a goal like this?). The input of the GE in our city over this game will be invaluable.

This is an interesting question because the reason Liz is unwilling to trade Lit is "We don't want to trade away this technology just yet," meaning she still has a monopoly on it. But, that reason is probably masking another reason: "We have our reasons," which basically means she's building the wonder that is unlocked by the tech. Unless another civ shows up sometime before we finish researching Lit ourselves and also knows the tech, Liz's reason for not trading Lit won't change, so we won't be able to tell from direct evidence that she's building GL.

But all indications are that Liz is building GL and I vote for rushing GL as fast as possible. AI's don't usually go for Alphabet, but Liz did. AI's also usually don't skip Math, but again, Liz did. Those two things point to Liz researching Lit, and sure enough, she is shown to have that tech as soon as we can see it on the tech trade board. It's a safe assumption that she didn't beeline Lit to build the two Epics.

By the time we finish researching Lit, Liz could complete GL at literally any turn, given Deity AI bonus, Marble bonus, and the fact we have no idea how long she's had Lit. Burning a GE on GL given our bonuses is not very efficient anyway, so what we are really losing if we rush a partial GL build with a GE is the that were put into the partial build. I can live with that in exchange for locking up the GL. Using the GE to shave 2 or 3 turns may not be optimal, but the flip side of that is missing the wonder by 2 or 3 turns despite having an available GE. That second possibility is a scary proposition, TBH.

 

[vra379971]

The plan looks good. Lets forge ahead.

 

[Ankka]

I believe its 100% certain we will receive a Great Engineer - but I loath to use him for GL just to save 2-3 turns (unless its 99.99% sure Elizabeth will build it in those turns, even on Deity how good is the computer at optimising for a goal like this?). The input of the GE in our city over this game will be invaluable.

The GL is more valuable than a settled GE. It provides 12 beakers with just representation, and that number is multiplied with all the buildings -- a great engineer will provide 3 hammers and 6 beakers. I would rather be advanced and with slightly less production than the other way around. The difference between the beakers will only get bigger with all the scientific buildings we build.

This is deity, we need all the science we can get to keep up!

I tried OCC on monarch, btw, first try ever in Civ4, and I missed a space victory by 4 turns! I really don't like the way the victory screen only shows the parts built so far by one other civ and not all of them. That game really proved to me that allies are useful but not in critical situations -- I think he only built 2 space parts, and left all the others to me. So if we do go for space, we have to be careful and not trust the AI to do anything else than research for us.

I also managed to help the ally I had by gifting him most of my overflow gpt, so he could research with a higher % of taxes he got.

 

[Yamps]

Here are my suggestions for GL building:

1. Forests: Morganknight chose good tiles for choping, I concur.
2. Lighthouse instead of an Axeman because of hammer overflow cap.
3. Production is the bottleneck, not research. No research building.

Details and calculations:

T0 Stop building a pasture. Send worker to first pre-chop location. (1 east of city). Switch from farm to crabs for more research. (Same as Morganknight's plan) Difference: revolt immediately.

Turn stats:

Spoiler :

Literature 29/286 + 25
20/32 + 3
Library 74/90 + 16
52/100 +2

T1 Nothing, move a worker.

T2 Hire two scientists. The reason for earlier revolt is that this way we are certain that scientists will bring more . It is probably the same thing, but we should check it. This way is safer. Maximize production, commerce and research with -1

Turn stats:

Spoiler :

Literature 54/286 + 46 [(25+12)*1.25 = 46, check it out]
23/32 -1
0/60 (lighthouse) + 9
54/100 + 8

Keep it this way. T6 should look like this:

Spoiler :

Literature 238/286 +46
19/32 -1
36/60 +9
86/100 +8

Take a deep breath...

 

[Yamps]

T7
Here we need more hammers for the lighthouse and Literature is almost completed. Maximizing hammers (fur to stone, crabs to deer) but not too much, we want lighthouse 59/60 on the next turn:

Spoiler :

Literature 284/286 + 36
18/32 -2
45/60 + 14
94/100 + 8

T8
Literature researched! GP born! What will we do if it is a GE? Settle or burn for GL? GL will be done in 2 turns. Who has the greater heart?

Following calculations ignore all GP usage. Maximizing production, no scientists needed here. Here comes the overflow magic:

Whip to size 5. (+30)

Spoiler :

Drama 32(?) /429 +27
16/32 +1
89/60 + 16 (This means 45 overflow. This number must stay under 60 . No chopping here or rest goes to gold!)
2/200 +2

T9
Time for our first chop. Look at the turn spoiler:

Spoiler :

Drama 59/429
17/32 +1
Before the chop:
0/350 GL! + 152 (45 overflow+16 base)*2.5
Note the 0/350 GL. This works this way to prevent building 2 items on the same turn, we have just built a lighthouse.
After the chop:
75/350 GL + 152

And finally, T10:

Spoiler :

We should have 227/350 . Now, we can make a chop and make 20 base with some starvation:
(30+20)*2.5 = 125:

This yields 352/350.

T11 see the GL completed.

So what do you think? Any questions? Do you see some mistakes?

 

[vra379971]

Well calculated there Yamps. The only thing to be said is that it should be played carefully, as we can't afford mistakes.

The only thing at this point to be asked is are we in *that* much danger of using the GL to use the GP...So, Balbes, would you be willing to honor us with your opinion now that we've gone over this with a fine toothed comb?

 

[Morganknight]

Alright, I went ahead and revolted as planned. The Library is finished and we have hired two scientists. We have one turn of production into a Lighthouse and meet:

I will pause here for discussion as to whether we should initiate any trades with him or change our current plans at all. I am of the opinion to not do anything. He really has nothing we need...

Also, how do you guys feel about razing our farm? I don't foresee using it any time soon and it would be nice if forest spread there...

 

[vra379971]

Doing zip seems fine.

And, seeing how I suggested putting up the farm and we've already decided to can go, you might as well raze it.

 

[Yamps]

Trading
Nothing with Alex.

Farm razing

This can wait I think. Let's remember that we only have a warrior, let's keep him fortified for now.

Crab tribute

We can cancel this during this turnset.

Morganklnight, please be careful to pre-chop and pre-build the lighthouse. Btw, are those figures I posted correct so far? Please post a city screenshot or attach a save on our team thread.

Vra379971 you are resuming captaincy now?


On another note, know thy enemy!
I've just found about the "C:\Program Files\Firaxis Games\Sid Meier's Civilization 4\Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4HandicapInfo.xml" file. Interesting.

 

[Morganknight]

How about open borders? No? He's Buddhist. Would having OB with him increase our chances of snagging Buddhism? Even if it did, would it be worth it to let this lunatic have units within our borders?

 

[Yamps]

How about open borders? No? He's Buddhist. Would having OB with him increase our chances of snagging Buddhism? Even if it did, would it be worth it to let this lunatic have units within our borders?

Yes, open borders are good. I forgot about that.

 

[shikhee]

This is an interesting question because the reason Liz is unwilling to trade Lit is "We don't want to trade away this technology just yet,"

Thanks for that response, very interesting... I never really know much about what goes on in the diplomacy and what certain responses mean.

So in a nutshell, we don't know that she is building GL, but all reasonable evidence suggests she has made it a high priority - like us

So why would this situation not have shown up in any of our test games ? (general question, I'm curious!)

 

[shikhee]

The GL is more valuable than a settled GE.

I agree

My (greedy) point is that 2 Scientists, 1 GE + GL is better than 2 Sci + GL :~D But from conversation so far I am happy to vote for the safe option. I also found in tests, late game excess of culture or production didn't seem to have any obvious turn-by-turn benefits.

 

[shikhee]

Yamps - nice numbers!

The way I see it, getting the Great Engineer is 100% certainty - can anyone back that up?

If so, then we don't need to chop ANY forests. Why waste production on a building that we are going to hurry anyway ? We don't even need to whip

Instead we can focus on our growth and research, we have GL turn 9 instead of 11. Delay production of lighthouse by a turn and complete that turn 12.

No forests or slaves were harmed in the making of this Great Library!!!