Ok, I've played a bit and things are really getting complicated out there. I don't want you to miss all the fun, you'll see.
Game plan:
More tests showed that conquering Fred would be difficult but possible! Some help from JC would be needed. I had two plans:
Plan A
Attacking Fred with artillery and infantry.
Plan B
Attacking Alex instead if the situation demanded.
I decided to skip Toku, JC would need 5 turns to take Kyoto. JC was already overstretched, Antium almost completely empty. JC was keeping to many soldiers in Madrid to prevent an impossible revolt, I guess.

Another reason was Liz, she was ready to attack. I estimated that going for Toku would delay the intervention on the Greek front.
T206
I decided to try a "Do you have a buck to spare for an old friend?" approach. I couldn't believe it, Capac, Kublai and Fred gave me a total of 440

!
I moved the rifleman into the city and a scientist to the coast like I said I would. The stack was moved towards Fred.
T207
I used "Show friendly moves" option to note the playing order of civs. We play first and then Fred, Monty, Wash, JC, Asoka, Liz, Cyrus, Kublai, Sal, Alex, Toku, Cathy and Capac in that order. This is important to know for future wars.
Mansa killed by French!
That put Cathy, Louis and Toku out of WHEOOHRN.
Cathy signed DP with Capac! Braking the Kublai - Capac pact didn't make any sense anymore, that would enable the Cathy - Capac PA in 40 turns. That PA is possible, they are friendly to each other.
Liz still had WHEOOHRN. I should point out that her cautious attitude towards JC gives a cautious attitude towards the team, not pleased. There were many examples of such behavior before. Washington didn't want to sign a DP with us although he was friendly, he was only pleased with JC. Another example: Louis is cautious at us but he doesn't want to sign OB anymore because he is annoyed at JC. Integer devision...
However, she was pleased at JC too when the WHEOOHRN happened, that's good for us.
Fred - Washington DP was possible too, another thing to prevent.
T208
JC still had only 2 infantry soldiers in Antium! Fred had 7 additional rifles near, and we still didn't have artillery. Also, JC decided to build a Caravel, no need to hurry the Pentagon waiting in the queue. Never mind Saladin, JC.

More bad news: Cathy and Cyrus researched Communism and Liz discovered Biology too!

That was just too much for one turn, save, exit, brake.
Brake didn't last long, of course.

I decided to go for plan B. Trade problems, lack of cash, empty Antium... Not the right situation for the attack on Fred.
I also encountered a known
HoF bug: scores are set to zero on fresh reload! I've read about it, this bug sometimes enables trades that are otherwise not possible. In this situation, Cathy was willing to trade again! Trades with Cathy are possible on fresh reloads for one turn only. That's a possible exploit to use, but that would go against our Unusually Suspicious Ways (tm), right?
Uranium was connected, I decided to sell it for cash. I wasn't willing to sell that to Liz, that could fuel destroyers! I decided to sell that to Louis and get the stone back. I planned selling stone to Liz. However, canceling the stone deal made Louis spend his gpt on research! Well, I sold the stone to Liz then.
T209 - current turn! The fun begins...
Cathy won't trade anymore. But if I save and reload she will do it!
Well, the plan is to sell Communism + 110

to Liz for partially researched Artillery anyway and keep Biology.
Artillery, cash in the treasury for about ~5 arties for the attack on Alex. Alex still doesn't have Rifling, but he could get that very soon. He does have a lot of units in his cities and JC is far, soldiers are still in Madrid.
Ok, everything set to go... Oh, but wait! What do I see? English troop movement! Where is that stack going? To Japan!!!
Evaluation:
Liz will reach Kyoto before us!
More

....
Well, closer look revealed that the race is very close. Of course, the first question to ask is should we go after Japan at all? We do have other options. Ok, here is the analysis:
Plan A: The fight for Kyoto
Liz can attack Kyoto in 3 turns with optimal unit movement. Our stack can attack in 4 turns. No time for upgrading cannons! JC can attack the city in 5 turns, or in 4 turns if he moves troops through Germany and if we declare war now.
Liz is faster,
but Toku has 15 units in the city and Liz is bringing 14. We could raze the city in front of her eyes! Another important thing, JC moves before Liz so if he uses the optimal path, he'll take the city!
However, there is another
but to consider. Liz has a strange exploring stack that has been moving around the country. 2 LB and one Artillery. The stack could reach Kyoto in 3 turns with optimal movement, taking the city!
Reinforcements from Beijing could attack Kyoto in 5 turns, that's too late.
See for yourself, I'll attach the save in the team thread. I've only played for a few turns, I won't upload an official save right now. I don't want other teams to guess that we are fighting a war.
In this case, perhaps selling Communism for Artillery isn't optimal. Maybe Liz accepts Communism for peace? I don't think so, she has an overwhelming advantage against Toku.
Plan B Taking out Alex
Should we fight for Kyoto at all? Consider it, this development could be good for us. If we take or raze Kyoto, Liz will still have a nasty stack ready for action. If she takes the city, she'll get stretched. Culture from other cities will kill Kyoto anyway, she won't have much use from that city. I've just checked the personality file, she will never raze a city! Btw, neither will JC.
We could attack Alex while Liz is busy before he gets guns. He also has coal, but we can't expect to take it, we are going to have big culture problems.
In this case, selling Communism for Artillery is a good idea, maybe we'll need them against Alex.
Plan C preparing for the attack on Fred
We don't have enough cash to upgrade all cannons, we can't attack right away. Hopefully JC will move troops from Madrid to Antium in 2 turns, rebellion in Madrid will stop then. More reinforcements are needed for the attack, however.
Selling Communism and asking civs for tribute is the right thing to do in this case.
So, what do you think? Maybe I should've attacked Toku right away? Liz was annoyed at Toku and Alex and on some other people too. In that case, we would had small chances to intervene on the Greek front. I still think that skipping Toku was the correct decision.
I think we should go with plan B, although I haves some impulses to go for plan A!
I can play again tomorrow.