SGOTM 07 - Xteam

[ShannonCT]

Gator, what is the likelihood that an AI will demand that we cancel deals with another AI?

 

[leif erikson]

I just tried playing through another test game in which we get both the Pyramids and the GLHouse. It was a tough game because I only got one Great Scientist, but I did get two Great Engineers, and two Great Artists. I stopped playing because without the Scientists, the Incans beat us to Liberalism quite handily, the turn we finished Education (12 turns to Liberalism). We had to self research Philosophy which took 12 turns iirc. Also, the Mongols declared on us and kept at it for 20 turns. The only thing that saved us was buying Louis into the fray. During this time, the Incans built themselves a research machine and we couldn't touch it. No one would declare as they were all brothers and sisters of faith.

My point is that we don't want to spend beakers on Drama since it's off both the beeline to CS and the beeline to Communism. We may, however, be forced to do this because Beijing will grow past the happy cap of 8 quite fast. We could, of course stay in Representation until the happy cap is reached then switch to HR and go back to Repr. when we at some point have traded for Drama and built the Globe. We don't want the Globe early anyway because it will give us more Great Artists.

You are correct about this. I reached the happy cap quite quickly, even having to pop-rush GLHouse for 3 pop. I only had to cut four forests. The Mongols killed our Worker, the turn they declared he was roading the Silver, never even saw them coming. JT was correct as on turn 79, the diplo screen said the Mongols "Had enough on their hands" and they weren't at war. On turn 86, they declared.

I'm not sure how well HR would have worked out since once we get over 5 units (including our Worker), we pay 1 GPT on each unit. That knocks us off of 100% research until we can trade for some Gold.

I'm unsure about going for both wonders. If we miss we can't really use the gold for much. It requires a lot of forests... It would be ideal if we only had to chop the 6 grassland forests since they have to go anyway to make room for cottages. And I guess it will also mean that we can't improve any tiles for the first 55 turns or so thus slowing down tech pace somewhat. And what about defense. My test games indicated that we need 3-4 axes around T60 in preparation for DOW's.

The gene pool was pretty diluted. With the two free Scientists plus another assigned, I still was getting Great Artists, and all I had built was National Epic and then later Globe.

I had the Axes by the time I needed them, but that was turn75. Walls also helped a lot.

It would be interesting to run a full test with the Communism date as benchmark to see if we really gain by having both wonders.

Due to gene poll dilution, I'm thinking that running just GLHouse may be better? I should probably play it one more time using Fred's save. If anyone else has a chance, that would be helpful.

If we want to try chopping the GLH, we would do well to have 2 workers. With two workers, we can plan on chopping the final two forests simultaneously such that we would finish the GLH the turn after that chop. If someone completes the GLH while we are chopping, we can stop the chop and save the forests. We can build the second worker before the Mids when we hit Pop3.

This didn't work well. I used this the first try this evening and lost the GLHouse by 2 turns. Building A second Worker delays growth for too long. I chopped all 6 Grass Forests using the two Workers and still lost the GLHouse! When chopping for the Pyramids, you get 50 hammers per chop because of the Stone multiplier. With the GLHouse, you only get 30 hammer per chop.

If Hinduism begins to dominate our continent, the Hindus will start liking each other better and will be less likely to demand trade cancellation.

Buddhism dominated the continent this evening, they all had it. However, it required until turn 126, 275 AD, to spread to Beijing.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Hmmmm... not getting an Academy would be pretty catastrophic. We do need to consider GP dilution. With Pyramids/GLHouse/GLib/2Freescientist/ and 2 assigned scientists we can get a 5/7 = 71% chance of a GreatScientist (still not that high).

 

[rrau]

This game is about two things: Staying alive and fastest win. It looks like getting both pyramids and GLH won't let us do that. If we get Mids and representation and are asked to switch civics, we will.....That's wasting turns. Maybe GLH is the better option?

 

[ShannonCT]

This didn't work well. I used this the first try this evening and lost the GLHouse by 2 turns. Building A second Worker delays growth for too long. I chopped all 6 Grass Forests using the two Workers and still lost the GLHouse! When chopping for the Pyramids, you get 50 hammers per chop because of the Stone multiplier. With the GLHouse, you only get 30 hammer per chop.

I worked out a sequence where we build a worker at Pop3, get Mids on turn 44 (just as in JT practice game), and GLH on turn 54. At turn 54, I'd put us at 50-50 for getting the GLH in the real game.

If we are concerned about GP dilution/pollution, I would argue that we should go for Pyramids, which we can get on turn 44, build a library ASAP, and hire scientists with the extra usable population that Mids allow. That seems like the way to maximize our chance that the first GP is a scientist while still getting a valuable early wonder.

 

[Frederiksberg]

I just tried playing through another test game in which we get both the Pyramids and the GLHouse. It was a tough game because I only got one Great Scientist, but I did get two Great Engineers, and two Great Artists. I stopped playing because without the Scientists, the Incans beat us to Liberalism quite handily, the turn we finished Education (12 turns to Liberalism).

In the new test game the Incans are favored because Peter and Elisabeth have been removed from the map so they have more room to expand early.

I'm not sure how well HR would have worked out since once we get over 5 units (including our Worker), we pay 1 GPT on each unit. That knocks us off of 100% research until we can trade for some Gold.

One gold equals 1.25 beakers with Library or 1.75 beakers with an Academy also. So the loss is small.

The gene pool was pretty diluted. With the two free Scientists plus another assigned, I still was getting Great Artists, and all I had built was National Epic and then later Globe.

If we stay in HR we can avoid building the Globe and we get lot's of diplomatic credit with the 6 leaders that like this civic.

If we are concerned about GP dilution/pollution, I would argue that we should go for Pyramids, which we can get on turn 44, build a library ASAP, and hire scientists with the extra usable population that Mids allow. That seems like the way to maximize our chance that the first GP is a scientist while still getting a valuable early wonder.

The best argument for building the Pyramids is the early access to happiness boosting civics that will allow us to grow fast. I think that we have established that cottage economy is superior to specialist economy in this game so I would prefer to only hire scientists if there are no developed resource tiles or cottages that they can work. Getting fast to size 15 or so working 6-7 cottaged tiles and then hiring scientists seems to me as the best strategy no matter what type of Wonder(s) we build.

 

[leif erikson]

In the new test game the Incans are favored because Peter and Elisabeth have been removed from the map so they have more room to expand early.

I saw that Peter and Elizabeth were out but didn't know they'd been removed. Not sure how I missed that.

The best argument for building the Pyramids is the early access to happiness boosting civics that will allow us to grow fast. I think that we have established that cottage economy is superior to specialist economy in this game so I would prefer to only hire scientists if there are no developed resource tiles or cottages that they can work. Getting fast to size 15 or so working 6-7 cottaged tiles and then hiring scientists seems to me as the best strategy no matter what type of Wonder(s) we build.

While I understand your point concerning not planning for the worst case scenario, losing our Worker and then having Mongol units roaming about for nearly 20 turns during the time we should have been growing and working cottages (turns 86 through 106), caused some real problems with getting the cottages built and growing the pop to work them. It slowed the tech pace and left us behind, and with all the other civs on the continent united in Buddhism, unable to start wars to slow civs like Incans down. I'm not sure that I can draw valid conclusions from the experience and should try to repeat the exercise. Perhaps this evening. What is the best save to use for this?

In reading JT's comments, I think he is correct in that not having Great Scientists is a real problem because there was no Academy, no bulbing Philosophy and paying support for Great People waiting to be useful. So the timing of their appearance was as much of a problem as what they were.

In all the other testing, there has been little problem with getting the Great Scientists we need. Was it just that game last night or does this point to a problem with having both wonders?

It seems we are coming back to the basic question, Pyramids or GLHouse? I hear SCT and Fred, what do others think? More testing? Where do we think we need to go now to resolve this?

 

[Frederiksberg]

I'm not sure that I can draw valid conclusions from the experience and should try to repeat the exercise. Perhaps this evening. What is the best save to use for this?

I think you should use my save, because I corrected a small mistake regarding the number of grassland tiles. Maybe you should also add at least one civ near the Inca's so that they don't get bigger than they normally would.

In reading JT's comments, I think he is correct in that not having Great Scientists is a real problem because there was no Academy, no bulbing Philosophy and paying support for Great People waiting to be useful. So the timing of their appearance was as much of a problem as what they were.

It would sure be nice if 1st or 2nd GP is a GS so that we can get the early Academy. After that any GP except GA's are useful. That's why I don't like building the Globe.

It seems we are coming back to the basic question, Pyramids or GLHouse? I hear SCT and Fred, what do others think? More testing? Where do we think we need to go now to resolve this?

In my mind the big decisions is whether we should shoot for two wonders or one only. I'm worried that going for two will delay our city development so much that even if we actually get both the gain will barely offset the cost. More testing would be nice... I'll see if I can play a test today or tomorrow.

 

[ShannonCT]

If we stay in HR we can avoid building the Globe and we get lot's of diplomatic credit with the 6 leaders that like this civic.

So far, none of the AI on our continent like HR, so its diplo value will depend on whom else we meet.

The best argument for building the Pyramids is the early access to happiness boosting civics that will allow us to grow fast. I think that we have established that cottage economy is superior to specialist economy in this game so I would prefer to only hire scientists if there are no developed resource tiles or cottages that they can work. Getting fast to size 15 or so working 6-7 cottaged tiles and then hiring scientists seems to me as the best strategy no matter what type of Wonder(s) we build.

Yes, the extra happiness from Pyramids lets us do more of a lot of things: more cottages, more hammers, more great people. I find myself switching those extra citizens to different tasks throughout my practice games based on what is needed at the time. When a important wonder or building is needed quickly, they work mines. When an important tech is needed, they work cottages. When a great scientist is needed, they become science specialists. If our first GP is a scientist, we can bulb Philosophy. With Pyramids + Great Library + Pacifism + National Epic, we get 33 GPPs per turn with a 60% chance that our next GP is a scientist, and an 84% chance that at least one of our next two GPs is a scientist. Add 2 scientist specialists to that, and we make 51 GPPs per turn with a 71% chance that our next GP is a scientist and a 92% chance that at least one of our next two GPs is a scientist.

The point is that if our first GP is a scientist, we can use Pacifism to give us a strong chance of another GS soon after the first, made more likely if we use specialists.

In my mind the big decisions is whether we should shoot for two wonders or one only. I'm worried that going for two will delay our city development so much that even if we actually get both the gain will barely offset the cost. More testing would be nice... I'll see if I can play a test today or tomorrow.

I agree that two wonders is not worth it. There is at best a 50% chance of getting the second wonder and the second wonder delays our growth, defense, and Alphabet date. If we lose out on the GLH, the cash that we get doesn't help us trade techs immediately (not until Currency) and upgrading warriors to axemen costs 4 gold per hammer difference between the new unit and old.

 

[DJMGator13]

Gator, what is the likelihood that an AI will demand that we cancel deals with another AI?

Stop trading rand is set at 50 for all leaders which puts it in the next group of options from my prior post.


Here are the min, max and modes for the AI contact types, notice that some of these numbers go all the way to 10,000 which should make them very unlikely (the lower the value the higher the probability that AI will contact human player).


CONTACT_RELIGION_PRESSURE 50 1000 500
CONTACT_CIVIC_PRESSURE 50 10000 500
CONTACT_JOIN_WAR 10 20 20
CONTACT_STOP_TRADING 50 50 50
CONTACT_GIVE_HELP 25 10000 100
CONTACT_ASK_FOR_HELP 25 1000 100
CONTACT_DEMAND_TRIBUTE 25 10000 500
CONTACT_OPEN_BORDERS 20 80 20
CONTACT_DEFENSIVE_PACT 80 80 80
CONTACT_PERMANENT_ALLIANCE 80 80 80
CONTACT_PEACE_TREATY 20 20 20
CONTACT_TRADE_TECH 1 20 5
CONTACT_TRADE_BONUS 1 20 5
CONTACT_TRADE_MAP 20 20 20

Now here is the part I'm not sure if we can control. It deals with the contact delay. For each Contact type, this shows the time that must pass before the Leader might again contact the same Civilization about that type of deal.

CONTACT_RELIGION_PRESSURE 50 50 50
CONTACT_CIVIC_PRESSURE 50 50 50
CONTACT_JOIN_WAR 20 20 20
CONTACT_STOP_TRADING 20 20 20
CONTACT_GIVE_HELP 50 50 50
CONTACT_ASK_FOR_HELP 50 50 50
CONTACT_DEMAND_TRIBUTE 50 50 50
CONTACT_OPEN_BORDERS 20 20 20
CONTACT_DEFENSIVE_PACT 20 20 20
CONTACT_PERMANENT_ALLIANCE 20 20 20
CONTACT_PEACE_TREATY 10 10 10
CONTACT_TRADE_TECH 30 30 30
CONTACT_TRADE_BONUS 20 20 20
CONTACT_TRADE_MAP 50 50 50

So, an AI could demand that we stop trading once every 20 turns. By using this turn delay and the above type of contact probability, we should be able to narrow down the options of what each AI should ask us for when they come calling. Especially if the counters are reset when we initiate say a tech trade.

 

[ShannonCT]

Thanks Gator. My head is spinning. (It might be the beer.)

Since we seem to be leaning toward going for the Mids, I worked out a couple sequences for getting Mids quickly.

Sequence 1 (two worker route):
1. Work fur long enough to get Hunting in 4 turns. Switch back to unimproved deer when Hunting is guaranteed to come on turn 23.
2. Send worker to improve deer, begin WB. Start Masonry.
3. WB and Pop3 come on turn 27. New pop works fur for 1 turn. Start worker.
4. WB builds crab nets. Work 2 crabs and deer.
5. Worker #1 mines marble.
6. After Masonry, start Wheel.
7. After worker #2 is built, start Mids. Both workers go to stone.
8. Quarry stone, and then road stone.
9. Start Pottery
10. @Pop4, work 1 crab, deer, stone, and marble mine.
11. 1 worker to forest east of Beijing, 1 to forest west of Beijing. Chop, chop.
12. After those chops, both workers go to forest NE of Beijing. Chop.
Mids are built on turn 44.

Sequence 2 (one worker route):
1. Research Masonry.
2. Send new worker to mine marble. Start WB.
3. After WB, build axeman. At Pop3, work 2 crabs and deer.
3. After marble mine, send worker to stone.
4. Research Wheel. Quarry stone.
5. At Pop4, work 1 crab, deer, stone, marble mine. Research Hunting. Road stone quarry.
6. Chop forest east of Beijing. Start Pottery.
Mids are built on turn 43.

Sequence 2 gets Mids one turn sooner and uses 2 fewer forests. Sequence 2 also has 1 axeman built.

Sequence 1 gives us an extra worker and a finished deer camp.

 

[leif erikson]

Just finished a second test game on building both Mids and GLHouse. I got them both and I do not think we should go that route. The gene pool gets too diluted. In this game, before 1000 AD, we got, in order, A Great Merchant on turn 79, a Great Engineer on turn 94, a Great Engineer on turn 115, a Great Artist on turn 129 and a Great Scientist on turn 144. By 100 AD I was almost finished with Scientific Method. No Academy and self-research of Philosophy and Education.

EDIT - On the Great Person chart in the city screen, the highest I saw the percentage go for Scientists was 57%. It dropped after that because of Globe, ect. Being up in the corner also hurt because we didn't get religion until quite late again, denying us Pacifism. I was running at least 2 scientists in the AD's. Should we go with GLHouse, we'll need to go easy on hiring Scientists in order to get the city to grow. By using Mids, we can run more Great People.

The question now is GLHouse or Mids? I could go either way. I think Mids provide more early benefits while GLHouse provides longer term benefits.

I will try to get a plan together by tomorrow evening.

 

[Frederiksberg]

I played a fast test game with GLH to test the Communism date. It went very well and I got Communism in 620 AD (T141). Here's a screen shot:

Spoiler :

Tech path (self research) was Fishing - BW - Hunting - Sailing - Masonry - Wheel - Pottery - Writing - Alphabet - Polytheism - Literature - Monarchy

Then beeline CS, beeline Education/Liberalism slingshot to Astronomy and finally beeline Communism.

As soon as Monarchy is discovered all happiness problems are gone. It's not a problem to maintain a sizable army since we can sell techs to keep research at 100%. I never built the Globe and was so lucky that all GP's were scientists. Actually, an early Merchant would have been fine also because he could have bulbed CS and saved 12 turns on this key tech. Getting no artists was definitely nice!

I'll see if I can find time to do a similar game with the Pyramids. I think that even with Pyramids we should try to avoid building the Globe - at least early on and we should still prioritize working cottages.

I discovered that founding Taoism has several benefits. First of all it means that we can build a Monastery for extra 10% beakers. Secondly I used the missionary to spread Taoism to Bismarck to induce him to adopt this religion and create some antagonism from the Buddhist civs. I think this can be an important diplomatic tool to create the basis for shared wars. I didn't start any wars in this game due to lack of time.

 

[leif erikson]

Nice job Fred!!

Wish my test went as well. You've sold me and it shows the power of getting Great Scientists in this game!

A couple of questions.
I had a Great Engineer and a Great Merchant and was about to begin researching CS. Both Great People wanted to bulb Metal Casting. I had to wait and trade for it. Then bulbed Machinery with the Great Engineer, but still couldn't bulb CS with the Merchant. Are we sure a GM can bulb CS?

Do you think we can use religion to create our future partner. I think that if we can establish Taoism through a Great Scientist and use Missionaries to turn a couple of civs, that is a lot better than sitting up in our little corner of the world waiting for someone to please bring us a religion. Did you use Pacifism and if so, how did that work with the large Army scenario?

If we can go without Globe for some time, or at all, that would help keep the Artists at bay, although National Epic, and eventually perhaps, Heroic Epic, will bring some GPP for Artists.

 

[ShannonCT]

A couple of questions.
I had a Great Engineer and a Great Merchant and was about to begin researching CS. Both Great People wanted to bulb Metal Casting. I had to wait and trade for it. Then bulbed Machinery with the Great Engineer, but still couldn't bulb CS with the Merchant. Are we sure a GM can bulb CS?

Great People Tech Preferences

Great Merchant can't bulb CS until after we have Currency, Metal Casting, and Monarchy. In most of my test games, I was able to self-research CS before the AI were willing to trade all of those techs. GM can bulb Paper before Monarchy.

Do you think we can use religion to create our future partner. I think that if we can establish Taoism through a Great Scientist and use Missionaries to turn a couple of civs, that is a lot better than sitting up in our little corner of the world waiting for someone to please bring us a religion. Did you use Pacifism and if so, how did that work with the large Army scenario?

With our neighbor Asoka already the founder of Hinduism, I think most of our neighbors, and hopefully ourselves, will be Hindu by the time we could get Philosophy. Gator, do you know how to calculate the likelihood of religious spread and how we can improve our chances?

If by chance Hinduism hasn't spread much, we could try to create a Taoist bloc.

If we can go without Globe for some time, or at all, that would help keep the Artists at bay, although National Epic, and eventually perhaps, Heroic Epic, will bring some GPP for Artists.

I think we should build the Heroic Epic (if possible) around the time we get our PA, and build the Globe before we get Chemistry or Rifling. My strategy for getting our PA partner to be more agressive in war is to build a lot of Cho-kos and gift them to our partner for cheap upgrades to Rifles/Grenadiers. If we can get Elizabeth as our partner, she can turn Cho-kos into Redcoats. We can mostly empty our capital of all our MP units if we build the Globe right before doing so.

 

[Frederiksberg]

A couple of questions.
I had a Great Engineer and a Great Merchant and was about to begin researching CS. Both Great People wanted to bulb Metal Casting. I had to wait and trade for it. Then bulbed Machinery with the Great Engineer, but still couldn't bulb CS with the Merchant. Are we sure a GM can bulb CS?

Yes, CS can be bulbed by a GM, but you probably need to have Currency, MC and Monarchy first because they have higher priority for the GM.

Do you think we can use religion to create our future partner. I think that if we can establish Taoism through a Great Scientist and use Missionaries to turn a couple of civs, that is a lot better than sitting up in our little corner of the world waiting for someone to please bring us a religion. Did you use Pacifism and if so, how did that work with the large Army scenario?

That's also an option if Hinduism haven't spread to many civs by the time we get Taoism. We probably need to be careful with religious differences. I never used Pacifism and preferred Free Religion for 10% extra research and - more important - no diplomatic problems.

 

[leif erikson]

Thanks for the rundown. There are a number of lists out there and I sometimes get confused by version, etc,.

@Shannon - Are you OK with GLHouse at this point? Trying to decide where we are going??

 

[ShannonCT]

Here's an article that explains religious spread: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=237869

For Hinduism to spread to us spontaneously, we need a road or coastal connection to Asoka. Then, as long as we don't have any other religion in our city, we have some probability of Hinduism spreading to our city each turn. The closer we are to the holy city, the higher the probability of religious spread. We are pretty close to the Holy City, a lot closer than in our test games. Seems like we have a good chance of getting Hinduism before Philosophy, in which case, we can use the Taoist missionary to convert some unaligned AI and use that AI as a common enemy. If Hinduism hasn't spread by the time we are ready to bulb Philosophy, we can wait until someone else has founded Taoism and then bulb.

 

[ShannonCT]

@Shannon - Are you OK with GLHouse at this point? Trying to decide where we are going??

My vote would be for Mids, because the extra happiness before we get Monarchy would allow us to grow more cottages early and get faster great people, and I think this early jumpstart is more versatile than the two extra trade routes.

If the team votes for GLH instead, I'm ok with it.

 

[leif erikson]

My vote would be for Mids, because the extra happiness before we get Monarchy would allow us to grow more cottages early and get faster great people, and I think this early jumpstart is more versatile than the two extra trade routes.

If the team votes for GLH instead, I'm ok with it.

Thanks.

I'm not really into voting, per se. I generally prefer that the discussion point to the best course we think we should take. It is not quite so clear here as to what we should do. I think both sides have been presented by you and Fred, so the info is in the thread.

We need to have the team weigh in on which way to go because we ought to get this moving again.

What do the rest of you think? Please weigh in!