SGOTM 11 - ChokoMisfits

JerichoHill · Jul 26, 2010

btw, I just realized that my image files are never seen here so a plan of attack is going to be kinda tough. Its just a weird data issue I have

Barb Stack Samsum to Erdine to Istanbul

2nd Stack. Land at Cordoba on Iron Hill. Attack and take Cordoba turn 2. Proceed through jungle and hills to Konya.

Stacks then eliminate the eastern coastal cities. Secure dye and silk

We have two maces and a treb at barb. Really just need another set of the same and we take the barb city

ianw1610 · Jul 27, 2010

For images, I simply us the imageshack.us site.

Just use the coding from the below image, but replace the address with your own image, and remember to remove any ".th" from the address as that would display a thumbnail only.

Sleepless · Jul 27, 2010

Ouch a CTD well total pc failure actually due to overheating.

Have PM'd Alan and stopped on turn 272 1260AD with lots of unfinished moves. Don't want to risk another one though should be ok.

Not a lot to report on these turns

Turn 0

Trade Comm - Just for Const + 300g
Turn research to 0

Turn 1

Find Mehmeds Invasion fleet 1 tir + 3 galleys not to scary.

Turn 2

Just stops Ivory deal so trade marble/pig for Ivory + 11 gold
Refused Zara request for Nat + 130 for Econ

Then CTD

I think we should get a dp (would have stopped at the end of this turn but don't want to risk it though have cleaned out computer)
With at least Tok/Zara and Sal. Tok first as he is the lowest positive friend.

Other than that build mil and take out most of mehmed for our UN win.

Here is your Session Turn Log from 1250 AD to 1260 AD:

Spoiler :

ianw1610 · Jul 27, 2010

The problem with a Defensive Pact is that we are only allowed to DoW 2 rivals in the game, and we are already planning to DoW Mehmed and Isabella. So, if we take a Defensive Pact with someone, and our partner suddenly gets DoW'd, then that would represent a 3rd DoW for us, meaning we would fail the challenge. Also, any Defensive Pact we enter would automatically be cancelled as soon as we DoW Mehmed & Isabella, which will happen sooner rather than later.

So, for me, I would say No to all Defensive Pacts.

Sleepless · Jul 27, 2010

The thing is Mehmed is 2 moves from attackiing us. We are his obvious target and as soon as he declares all dp's are cancelled so we won't have any more wars and if Mehmed declares us we still have 2 declarations left.

ianw1610 · Jul 27, 2010

Looking at the current relations (including hidden modifiers) we already have +14 with Saladin, +11 with Zara and +10 with Tokugawa (which will rise to +11 when we adopt Mercantilism before the vote)... so there is no urgency for any plus points anywhere.

Can Defensive Pacts me negotiated while one of the parties is at War? My understanding was that they could only be negotiated during peacetime......

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 27, 2010

ianw1610 said:
The problem with a Defensive Pact is that we are only allowed to DoW 2 rivals in the game, and we are already planning to DoW Mehmed and Isabella. So, if we take a Defensive Pact with someone, and our partner suddenly gets DoW'd, then that would represent a 3rd DoW for us, meaning we would fail the challenge. Also, any Defensive Pact we enter would automatically be cancelled as soon as we DoW Mehmed & Isabella, which will happen sooner rather than later.

So, for me, I would say No to all Defensive Pacts.

ianw1610 wrote the above before he knew Mehmed II will be attacking us. This fact changes the DP from being mainly a liability to being mainly an advantage. (I mean this in a Diplomatic sense only, since we can not expect to AI to do much militarily against Mehmed II nor would we really want too much help.) I suspect this (the Diplomatic advantages) is why Sleepless has suggested that we enter into a small number of DPs in advance of Mehmed II's attack.

While I agree that Defensive Pacts are Dangerous because of the 2 DoWs we can do, let's not be too hasty. We could form Defensive Pacts with Civs that are under no threat of being attacked by a third Civ. We would gain +1 Diplomacy in 10t and +2 Diplomacy in 20t with the 1-2 Civs we could use a Diplomatic boost with. As long as those 1-2 Civs are not attacked we're fine; They may themselves be pulled into a War by their own DPs with other Civs, but then we would not be under any obligation to do a DoW.

DPs are not transitive, so A <-DP-> B and B <-DP-> C and then D attacks A means B must do a DoW in response, but no one has attacked B, thus C is not obligated to join the War (DoW) via his DP with B. Also, I'm quite certain that B's DoW on D will cancel
B's DP with C.

In the future, there is no telling how many Diplomatic penalties we will suffer, by for example declining an invitation to a DoW. We should hedge our bets, by getting as many Diplomatic bonuses as we can with minimal risk.

It should be pointed out that if Mehmed II does indeed attack us and we have select DPs in place, those will continue to build Diplomatic bonuses for the DP and also for shared War!

If done carefully before Mehmed II attacks us, select DPs would greatly increase our Diplomatic bonuses with minimal risk. We will have to analyze the risk carefully, but I can see immense Diplomatic bonuses for carefully crafted DPs.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 27, 2010

I suggest that we convert Zara Yaqob to Hinduism to turn a Religious Difference Liability into a Religious Similarity Advantage with respect to Diplomacy.

Zara Yaqob has Buddhism (his current State Religion) in just 4 of his 7 Cities. If we convert 5 of his 7 Cities to Hinduism, he will convert to Hinduism freely, because his Hinduism Population would exceed by at least 5 his Buddhism Population. Five is the Population threshold for an AI to convert to a new Religion, when neither Religion was self founded.

Zara Yaqob's -3 Diplomacy due to Religious Differences will become +3 Diplomacy due to Religious Solidarity.

5-7 Hindu Missionaries (may lose 1-2 to non-conversion) is reasonably inexpensive for a solid net +6 Diplomacy.

haphazard1 has suggested this in the past and I give him credit now for first suggesting it.

Sun Tzu Wu

haphazard1 · Jul 28, 2010

I favor ianw1610's thought of avoiding defensive pacts. We could get some additional +diplo, which could be helpful. But there is a risk because the DPs would pull the other AI's into war with Mehmed and Isabella, and they might go after the easy target and kill Isabella.

I do like the idea of converting Zara to Hinduism, which is why I suggested it earlier.

The only question is whether we will have enough missionaries, since we will need to keep sending them to the front to convert the cities we take from Mehmed. But if we can spare some missionaries, it would certainly help solidify Zara's vote for us.

ianw1610 · Jul 28, 2010

An alternative way of converting Zara to Hinduism is via 1 Missionary and 1 Spy. If one of his cities becomes Hindu, then the Spy can use Espionage points in that city to convert the entire Ethiopian empire to Hindu. Note that this will need to be done with less than 5 turns to go until the victory vote, as he would inevitably convert back to Buddhism once those 5 turns elapsed.

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 28, 2010

haphazard1 said:
I favor ianw1610's thought of avoiding defensive pacts. We could get some additional +diplo, which could be helpful. But there is a risk because the DPs would pull the other AI's into war with Mehmed and Isabella, and they might go after the easy target and kill Isabella.

Excellent point, but I suspect the War will be over before Isabella is at risk of being eliminated. Zara Yaqob is closest to Isabella, but doesn't have much military and wouldn't be able to take even one of her Cities. Saladin, Tokogawa, Justinian I are too far away, don't have Galleons yet; I doubt that any of them make it to the front with enough military units to take out Isabella.

One possibility is giving Isabella a third City before the War starts.

If we didn't sign DPs, I'd suggest we capture one of her Cities to force her to capitulate anyway.

I was going to suggest DPs with everyone except Mehmed II and Isabella who are going to attack us most likely quite soon. When Mehmed II attacks us, they will all be forced onto our side of the War with Mehmed II and Isabella. No chance of a Tokugawa versus Justinian I War starting up (their hands will be figuratively tied up).

This War could be a smashing Diplomatic boon for us via 4 DPs, if we could just accept the extremely low risk of Isabella being eliminated. I could see your point, if Isabella had just one City now, but she has two, one on the West coast and one on the East coast.

haphazard1 said:
I do like the idea of converting Zara to Hinduism, which is why I suggested it earlier. The only question is whether we will have enough missionaries, since we will need to keep sending them to the front to convert the cities we take from Mehmed. But if we can spare some missionaries, it would certainly help solidify Zara's vote for us.

We might try giving Zara Yaqob a single Hindu Missionary; if he doesn't have Scientific Method yet, he could build a Hindu Monastery and start converting his Cities to Hinduism. Even if he doesn't, chances are excellent that he would still have at least one City with Hinduism and could convert < 5 turns from the DV Vote turn via the Spy method as ianw1610 has suggested both recently and long ago.

Sun Tzu Wu

JerichoHill · Jul 28, 2010

I would *not* go the DP route. We know we are two turns from a DOW by Mehmed and then our attack begins so its not like we are going to get the DP bonus, and instead we would get -1 mods potentially

Mehmed DOWing us though sure gives us some flexibility

Mighty Dwaarf · Jul 28, 2010

Not an expert but we would also get some -1 "worried about DP's signed with our rivals" also is it possible that someone else with a higher power level could vassal Mehmed before us??
If neither of these points are applicable then I would be persuaded.

Sleepless · Jul 28, 2010

Well we do know we are going to be at war in 2 turns as there is now way Mehmed is going for anybody else that I can see. The -1 for dps go when the dp finishes which will be 2 turns from now. The plus side if we get Zara, Tok and Sal in we will get the shared mil bonus with all 3 and means we won't have to worry to much about defence with Zara as our front line.

Please note because of my comp failure. Really annoying as it only happens when I play games and haven't had much time recently I haven't moved any units on the current turn. I don't see much point in taking the barb city now except for the extra pop. there are also troops on 2 galleons with the great spy for infilitration. We should have enough to kill mehmeds stack without to much problem but try to avoid him landing on the forest.

Not sure who is up next but best if they take the save.

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 29, 2010

JerichoHill said:
I would *not* go the DP route. We know we are two turns from a DOW by Mehmed and then our attack begins so its not like we are going to get the DP bonus, and instead we would get -1 mods potentially

Mehmed DOWing us though sure gives us some flexibility

Yes, we will lose the DP bonus and gain Shared War bonus with our former DP partners, because someone else is going to Declare War on us. Only if we declared War would the DPs be cancelled without effect.

Recall, that I'm suggesting DPs with Zara Yaqob, Saladin, Tokugawa, and Justinain I. Only one of them is likely to attack the other, so that would be one DoW.

Mighty Dwaarf said:
Not an expert but we would also get some -1 "worried about DP's signed with our rivals" also is it possible that someone else with a higher power level could vassal Mehmed before us??
If neither of these points are applicable then I would be persuaded.

We may get several -1 Diplomacy for not having a DP with Mehmed II and Isabella, but at this point does that even matter?

Sleepless said:
Well we do know we are going to be at war in 2 turns as there is now way Mehmed is going for anybody else that I can see. The -1 for dps go when the dp finishes which will be 2 turns from now. The plus side if we get Zara, Tok and Sal in we will get the shared mil bonus with all 3 and means we won't have to worry to much about defence with Zara as our front line.

I'm not sure which -1 (Dipl) for DP you are referring to. The one I'm aware of takes effect immediately (We are unhappy with your DP with X or something similar). So one must take care which order to get DPs, even in the same turn. Make DPs in the order of least margin to highest (safer) margin above the minimum Diplomacy for accepting a DPs. This may not work if 2 AIs are at their minimum Diplomacy for accepting a DP, since making a DP with one will give one a -1 Dipl with the other AI.

Sleepless said:
Please note because of my comp failure. Really annoying as it only happens when I play games and haven't had much time recently I haven't moved any units on the current turn. I don't see much point in taking the barb city now except for the extra pop. there are also troops on 2 galleons with the great spy for infilitration. We should have enough to kill mehmeds stack without to much problem but try to avoid him landing on the forest.

Not sure who is up next but best if they take the save.

We just need get 1-2 defenders on any Forest/Hill that Mehmed II may want to land on.

That would be me.

I'm unlikely to have enough time to out a PPP yet this evening. Maybe Thurs. evening.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 29, 2010

The last save I see on the SGOTM server is for Turn 272 (1260 AD). Is that the correct to start planning from and resume play?

I downloaded that save 26.5 hours ago, so I'm a bit concerned that it may not be the last. Just double checking. Maybe we could follow a convention where all players conclude their TS with a post containing a link to the new save.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 29, 2010

I'm not totally convinced that we are Mehmed II's target. Saladin was Mehmed II's Worst Enemy for a very long time and is possibly his target (in addition to us). If Saladin does prove to be his target, we may not want to risk any DPs. We can still ask Tokugawa, Saladin and Zara Yaqob to join us in our War against Mehmed II and Isabella for the Shared War Diplomatic bonus.

It would take Mehmed II over 10 turns to attack Saladin. Plenty of time to cancel our DPs. However, if Justinian I or Tokugawa went to War with either other before that, our DP would force us to side with the Defender in that War using up 1 DoW and we would still need to attack Mehmed II and as long as Isabella is his Vassal that would be problematic. We'd have to help Isabella break free of Mehmed II, before we could declare War on him.

Justinian I is at -6 with Tokugawa and Tokugawa is at -4 with Justinian I. Thus, War between them is more likely then I had thought.

It would have been fun to set up 4 DPs, but I agree that its too risky and we don't really need the DP bonus. The Shared War bonus is just as good, assuming we can convince an AI to join us.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sleepless · Jul 29, 2010

Yep turn 272 1260AD was the turn my comp died on me as I said no units were moved that turn just did the trade for ivory with Just. You can see Mehmeds fleet in Zara's land so have to be a little bit careful where he lands.

Sun Tzu Wu · Jul 29, 2010

Sleepless, thank you for doing such a great job on your Turn Set!

PPP, starting Turn 272 (1260 AD):

I will not try to describe what I plan to do in this TS in too much detail. I forget now what is often said of War Plans when first contact is made with the Enemy. What is certain is we will not be on the losing end of the coming War.

Research: We can complete Mass Media in 9-10 turns by adding 2 Scientists, Spy Specialists in Cities not working them plus 100% 9 of 10 turns, consuming our 814W.

City Builds:

Builds look fine. I plan to do some heavy Whipping of Cuirrassiers. I plan to Whip Stables in Cities building Cuirrassiers when they can easily and quickly build them and the City is not dedicated to another purpose like building Hindu Missionaries. I plan to Whip 1-2 (more) Cuirrassiers from PigFish, ThreeClams, RiceMarble, Devil's Gate and Zhou and any other City that can build this expensive unit.

We will build Hindu Missionaries in HorseCopper and OasisWheat for CrabTown, SilverWhale, some for Zara Yaqob (probably from HorseCopper) and 2-3 for the initial Cities we will capture.

We bill build a least 3 more Spies. Maybe build a Musketman that can be disembarked from a Galleon on a Hill, Forest or both to protect our Cuirrassier stack from damaging attacks on the turn prior to their attack on a City and later as a City Garrison.

War:

Will do something similar (but possibly not the exact same routes) to what JerichoHill suggested below:

Barb Stack Samsum to Erdine to Istanbul

2nd Stack. Land at Cordoba on Iron Hill. Attack and take Cordoba turn 2. Proceed through jungle and hills to Konya.

Stacks then eliminate the eastern coastal cities. Secure dye and silk

We have two maces and a treb at barb. Really just need another set of the same and we take the barb city

Macemen, Catapults, Trebuchets will take Barbarian City to NW of Mehmed II -> Samson -> -> Istanbul.

Cuirrassiers and Knight stack will start with Cordoba -> Konya -> Edirne or Istanbul (both stacks attacking it).

Stacks may converge on Istanbul depending on resistance of Mehmed II's forces.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sleepless · Jul 30, 2010

Sounds good Sun Tzu Wu. Like you said can't afford to make to many detailed plans in war as things change. Worrying thing about mehmed is he's a unit spammer so once the war starts he will build a lot of units. Not so sure on the stables as barracks + theo + vass = +7 xp, stables will be +9 so no immediate benefit although only 1 xp needed for level 3 currs.

At least if meh attacks us we don't get any negatives for declaring on him.

With Zara's votes in the bag do we need to use missionaries on him. One of the reasons a dp would be good as with no metal he is unlikely to cause Isa any problems but we get shared military diplo with him.

SGOTM 11 - ChokoMisfits

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Bedrock of Knowledge

Ginger Beast

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