Playing and Stopping
I could not know exactly when i play the rest of my TS. I think i will wait
If you can wait until tomorrow morning or tomorrow evening (tomorrow being the 30th) then I can help out. Otherwise I will be unavailable.
What I would ask is that if at any point an AI learns Education, or if at any point you feel the urge to LIGHTBULB a tech OR use up LIBERALISM, then please save the game and stop play. Wait for sufficient feedback from the team. It is too important of an issue to just keep playing through.
Hopefully, this issue will not even arise during your turnset, but if it does, what is the value in playing an extra 5 turns? Will that speed up our game? Not really. UT is not even back yet. Does it have the chance of slowing down our game? Yes, indeed it does.
Techs and AI War Declarations
I see Dhoom's point about Toku. Giving him paper (still a monopoly for us) we seriously compromise our tech from Lib.
If you are at war with an AI, bribing another AI into the war is cheap. Even moreso when you bribe a Powerful leader like Toku, as he will feel that the opportunity to go to war is too good to pass up.
I posit that from experience, it will cost us more to get the AI to Declare Peace than it will for them to go to War with an AI that we are already at war with.
Toku will take Peace with Zara for a very cheap price (less than the cost of a relatively-medium-priced tech and a relatively-cheap tech, as he will give us all of his Gold).
So, I would argue that he is unlikely to require us to offer up two relatively-medium-priced techs to go to war.
He might even have been willing to PAY us Gold plus War with Mehmed in exchange for Philosophy, if we were to leave him any Gold (but we'll take all of his Gold in the Peace with Zara trade deal so that we'll have the option of giving it right back to him).
That's the ultimate concern that you guys have: having to give up Paper.
The numbers just don't support us needing to give up Paper, especially with your ability to raise Gold from a couple of extra sources, should it be needed.
In fact, Toku's price for war will be even cheaper than Zara's was (which was really cheap, remember?), because not only are we at war with the target, but there are also TWO other AIs at war with the war target--Isabella and Zara.
Toku would probably be willing to PAY US to go to war with Mehmed if the game allowed for that possibility.
However, I AM confident that if he wants more than Philosophy and all of the Gold that we can raise, we WILL be able to afford the war for Philosophy + Paper, because those techs cost more than Civil Service + Code of Laws and War with an AI that we are at war with is inherrently cheaper than paying for peace.
So, the only question becomes: can we raise enough Gold to make up the difference, if Toku won't simply accept Philosophy with a big grin on his face? I think that the answer is a strong "yes."
That said, I still think that our contingency plan of also having to give away Paper will
1. For certain be sufficient to pay him off
AND
2. Be the best choice out of all of the alternatives available to us
Lightbulbing
- partially LB part of both Astro and SM using 1 GS each (it's what we have for sure, not dreams), then use Lib for Physics.
Please re-read my steps on Lightbulbing, because this plan really doesn't work.
If we are forced to use a Lightbulb on Astronomy, we will not have sufficient time to research enough of Scientific Method for even TWO Great Scientists to finish Scientific Method in time, and your suggestion plans for us to be able to do so with just ONE Great Scientist to finish Scientific Method. This plan will not work.
- partially LB part of Astro use Lib for SM and burn the 2nd GS on part of Physics.
Okay, but this situation is our worst-case scenario. We should not make it our primary plan.
I have laid out my arguments for why using a Great Scientist to Lightbulb Astronomy is a mistake. I cannot hold your hand and control your actions. I have to rely on your good sense of judgment to trust the fact that I have laid out a very clear and solid plan for our Great Person Lightbulbing.
If you truly wish to go against my plan, please come up with a very specific and clear plan of your own for Lightbulbing. You should include "if this happens, then do X, or if that happens, then do Y, but if that other thing happens, do Z, etc." Otherwise, it is not clear at all how Lightbulbing Astronomy beats my carefully-planned-out Lightbulbing approach. Make it clear how your plan will work and then we can vote on the two plans. Or, stick with my plan and please do not Lightbulb Astronomy.
Assumptions
I think that a diplo move like that can be successful diplo-wise and surely solves a bad situation, but the cons are that we must rush Lib.
You are treating an assumption as a fact on which to base your argument. We do not yet know that Liberalism will actually be in any danger.
In fact, the evidence points strongly against this fact.
Also, by trading away Philosophy, we'll encourage the AIs to chase after Nationalism. It would be best if MULTIPLE AIs got Nationalism, so that we could trade for it whenever we want to.
Lightbulbing Liberalism? Really?
And we can lose the race if Toku pops a GS.
Your fear is about Toku Lightbulbing Liberalism? Interesting. We have Great Scientists. Have we ever seen Liberalism as a Lightbulbing option in our game? No? Why not? Well, because it takes a lot of "tech planning" to be able to take Liberalism with a Great Scientist. The fact is that Toku will not be able to Lightbulb Liberalism. Period. check out the Great Scientist Lightbulbing tech path for BTS and you will see what I mean.
For example, you said that he has Musketmen, but no mention was made of Grenadiers. We can clearly see from his techs that he has Gunpowder and Engineering.
So, Chemistry would come up as a Lightbulbing option before Liberalism.
We know that Toku knows Alphabet and Machinery.
If Toku learns Education, Printing Press will be opened up as a Lightbulbing option before Liberalism.
We know that Toku knows Optics.
So, Astronomy will come up as a Lightbulb option before Liberalism.
Do I need to go on? No, I will stop here--there might be other examples but I think that my point has been made. Toku cannot Lightbulb Liberalism.
Great Scientist Lightbulbing:
Even if we have to give up Paper, we are in no immediate danger of losing Liberalism. In fact, if we can collect and KEEP 3 Great Scientists, we will have a great amount of flexibility. The more Great Scientists that we can collect and KEEP, the greater our flexibility in choosing our Liberalism tech.
Remember that you will be doing everything in your power to avoid giving away Paper by collecting first seeing what Toku's price is, and if we don't have enough Gold, you will collect some Gold from Isabella for Literature. Check with Toku again. Still not enough? Well, we'll be able to trade Compass to Zara for a tech, his World Map, and as much Gold as he will give us. Check with Toku. Still not enough? Then Paper it is.
What? Liberalism on a Non-beeline Tech?
So, i'm in favor of option a), but being prepared to get Nationalism outside of Lib in case of danger.
You now have a test saved game. It may not be perfectly accurate, but it is accurate enough for you to be able to prove whether or not a Golden Age is worth the cost of using Liberalism on a tech that is not on our beeline path.
To justify this fact, you would have to demonstrate that a Golden Age can give us the equivalent Flask-value of the tech that we would otherwise use Liberalism on.
I think that when you run the test, you will see that spending Liberalism on Nationalism and getting a Golden Age will net us less Research than using Liberalism on even a partially-researched Scientific Method.
Consider that most of our income comes from Scientists, not Commerce, and a lot of our Hammers come from the Apostolic Palace bonuses, instead of from worked squares. So a Golden Age will not provide us a lot of bonus yields on squares worked by citizens.
A Golden Age WILL give us +100% GPP production. However, this +100% is diluted by the +100% from Philosophical, the +50% from The Parthenon, and the +100% in one City for the National Epic.
Can you use a test saved game to demonstrate that the extra Commerce and extra GPP will result in enough of a gain over using Liberalism on even a "cheaper" tech like Scientific Method? If you cannot come up with this proof, then I think the idea of taking a non-beeline tech has to be immediately discarded as an inferior choice to taking a beeline tech.
AIs going for Nationalism
If we don't need paper to bribe Toku into peace and war, the situation will be quite different: probably he would use philo to follow the Nationalism/MT path to have cuirassiers and cavalry after rifling.
I agree. Even if Toku does go for Education after Paper, though, I think that he still has a very strong chance of going after either Nationalism or Banking + Economics before he goes for Liberalism.
Saladin, I would not trust: he is an AI that I would see going after Liberalism. But for Toku, I do not even worry about losing the Liberalism race if Toku has Education, Philosophy, and a 20-turn head-start, due to the other techs coming higher in his normal list of preferences. We would have to get a very unlucky dice roll for Toku to beeline Liberalism.