SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

I would think we should try to settle the dye before she does.

My thinking is as follows: We don't know where the silk is, but we are likely to need to use one of our DOWs to get it (since as you say trading for it would be unreliable). If we let Izzy settle the dye then we are resigning ourselves to DOW on her if we can't get her to DOW on us. This course of action will most likely tie our hands for both DOWs. It would be nice to have a spare DOW to boost our diplo chances, I think.

The dye is jungled, but it's right next to Barca. I imagine she'd settle that before ivory. Anyone know if that's testable somehow? So, if we went for it, we'd probably need to send the current settler? I'm not necessarily completely against it, but it seems like a big strain on empire development right now. We could still find silk nearby, putting even more of a strain on it...

(is there some kind of record for most SGOTM posts in one day? I think we've hit it!)

You sure? I'll bet Fifth Element has something to say about that.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Our two DoWs are good for:

1. UN votes from captured cities
2. Diplo points without Theocracy (we want to run Pacifism most of the game)
3. Needed VC luxuries
4. other goodies

We don't know who we'll DoW yet. We won't know until 1) we find all four VC luxuries and 2) we decide who our opponent in the UN election will be. In particular, we don't know that we want to DoW Izzy.

I'm also not sure how likely it is that Izzy will DoW us, if we're not a land target for her. If we were to settle the dyes, we wouldn't have to defend it at all. We'd probably become a land target eventually: Let her capture it. Make our day... Save us the maintenance until we decide to get it back. We just stay at war with her until we're ready to eat her for lunch (figuratively speaking ).

Now Izzy has an iRazeCityProb=25%, but iirc she won't raze any cities within X tiles of her capital, with X= (Silu? ). Pretty sure those dyes are close enough to her capital.

xpost with mushroom

 

[babybluepants]

I'm also not sure how likely it is that Izzy will DoW us, if we're not a land target for her.

Unless we settle the dye, I don't think she would before this game is over, honestly.

Let her capture it. Make our day... Save us the maintenance until we decide to get it back. We just stay at war with her until we're ready to eat her for lunch (figuratively speaking ).

Well... my point was that we may as well let her settle it if we're gonna capture it later anyway. What exactly did we achieve by spending an early settler in your scenario?

 

[Mutineer]

We achieve not spending DOw, that what.

I propose we:

1) current settler settle Ivory (There risk Zara might settle it)
2) Whip settler in capital (never mid settler build from forest chop I diid not noticed).
3) move conf missionary to zara.
4) Open all other borders we can.
5) revolt to Conf/org religion.
We do not need any more tech trades and currently have all open borders we need.

6) galey pick misisonary + settler and go settle Dyes, + spread conf into this city for culture.

 

[mdy]

As there is a good chance that Spain will settle that dye site soon we would probably have to found it with the settler on the galley in order to have a good chance of getting it. This would risk losing the ivory to Spain/Zara, a much better site. As long as we ensure that we are her worst enemy (very easy when we switch to Confunicism), and keep our power well below hers (Maybe it would be worth getting access to her demographics to ensure this?) the probability of her attacking us is almost certain. We can therefore take this site from her without wasting one of our DOW's or going out of our way to settle it soon. As she is likely to DOW us regardless of what we do, we will have to launch an invasion force at her anyway so this wouldn't really cost us anything.

 

[LowtherCastle]

For the purposes of discussion, here's a quick brainstorm of two possible solutions:

Solution #1
T126 galley 2E drop off Ivory settler; Dyes settler moves toward Aksum
T127 settle Ivory, galley drops of warrior at Izzy
T129/30 Dyes settler + Ivory wkr board galley
T130 Marble settler done in Delhi (4t later than originally planned)
T131 Dyes settler disembarks at Izzy, wkr at Ivory
T132 Dyes warrior begins defogging Dyes site
T133 Aksum warrior boards galley at cows NE
T134 Aksum warrior goes NE to Ivory before galley moves
T134 Marble settled
~T137 Dyes settled
T139 galley positioned to pick up Sugar settler for T140 drop-off

Solution #2
T126 galley 2E drop off Ivory settler; Marble settler moves toward Marble
T127 settle Ivory, galley drops of warrior at Izzy
T129 Ivory wkr boards galley
T130 Ivory wkr lands on Ivory Island
T130 Marble settled
T130 Dyes settler leaves Delhi for Aksum
T133 Dyes settler boards galley
T134 Dyes settler lands at Izzy
T134 Dyes warrior begins defogging Dyes site
T136 Aksum warrior boards galley at cows NE
T137 Aksum warrior goes NE to Ivory before galley moves
~T140 Dyes settled
T142 galley positioned to pick up Sugar settler for T143 drop-off

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Madrid will complete a settler in 2t (T127). Madrid and Barca each have two archers garrisoned. I suppose one Barca archer could go with the settler. There may be others hanging around too. Unless Izzy really has garbage on her landmass, I doubt she'll settle her 4th city so far from Madrid (see pic), especially since Barca already has at least two dyes.

.

 

[shyuhe]

On reflection of LC's proposed schedule, I'm not so convinced that it's a good idea to gun for the dye spot. We definitely want to settle the ivory first - that's just a good city site period, even if it wasn't one of the required luxuries. As for the dye spot, I'm concerned that we may be sacrificing too much growth in our capital to pick up that spot. As LC has mentioned, it's unlikely that she will settle the dye given its distance from Madrid and her low city count so far. So I'd take the slower approach (LC's proposed #2) since it's unlikely we'll lose the dye spot - unless it has 3 fish tiles in the fog or something

Which reminds me, the opening post for this game indicated that barbs defend the fur tile, so it's probably set up so that the other AI won't be able to grab the fur any time soon. That means we probably just have to figure out how we're going to gather the three other resources using our two dows.

 

[mystyfly]

Wow quite a few things happened there...

I'm not sure whether we're allowed to make colonies; does that violate any rules? Else we could settle just 2 cities on bellas landmass and liberate them; this would guarantee us dyes while eliminating big upkeep costs while it makes diplo harder as we're having a vassal. IMO an interesting option. A DOW by izzy at some point is likely though.

If we want AIs voting for us we must adopt their religion, not make them adopt confucianism as they'll keep switching back. I think whichever early religion (buddh/hindu) spreads first to justy should be the one we're adopting as well to have 2 voters (+zara eventually). Trouble only is the resources; however, let's assume it's buddhism, and we're adopting it as well. Why shouldn't we get dyes in trade from izzy? I'm quite sure we'll get any spare resources from our buddies, and we can trade for them early so the AI doesn't trade it away to anyone else. It would be good if we picked that religion soon as every city must have that religion by the time we win and it might be a while until it spreads to us.

WE MUST GROW BOMBAY AND DELHI they could contribute so much more when they're a little bigger. We have all the workers we need, only thing is settlers... Twofish grows to 4 this turn and has 3 good tiles so we could switch to settler next turn and 2popwhip the settler as soon as possible. Regrow while building the lighthouse, rinse and repeat.

I'm not that sure about rushing to the dyes site(s), LC. Izzy has no IW and I doubt she'll settle that jungle area that soon. IMO we need to know a bit more about that area. What about:
- Continue scouting along the coast with the WB
- settle ivory
- Unload the warrior on the galley on the spanish island
- use the warrior to explore around the dyes
- use the currently completed settler for marble
- use a whipped settler from Twofish on dyes when we find a good site
- LET DELHI GROW first before starting another settler there

I doubt zara will settle sugarisland that soon, worstcase we could cancel OB with him, however I'm not so hot on that site...

 

[Silu]

Which reminds me, the opening post for this game indicated that barbs defend the fur tile, so it's probably set up so that the other AI won't be able to grab the fur any time soon. That means we probably just have to figure out how we're going to gather the three other resources using our two dows.

Speaking of that, there are not so many ways to prevent AIs from taking a city. The most obvious is putting like 10 barb Infantry there (not foolproof), but others include surrounding it completely with peaks or float-ice, which would require some paratrooper action. Again, exploration is premium so we know what to gun for.

 

[mdy]

One additional point in favour of settling the elephants next: In the test game I found that Zara settled the ivory island next if we did not take it first. It is far better to risk losing the dye site then the ivory site.

If we did settle the dye site how could we possibly defend it? Bearing in mine we won't be able to transport anything there once we adopt Confunicism. We may be able to do without O.R. but Pacifism will simply be too powerful to ignore once we have philosophy.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I say screw the horses

Any reason why we don't have OB with Saladin right now?

As for scouting direction, I'd head NW around his island

I agree on Horse City. Ty for reminding about OBs with Sal. I wanted to check the diplo sitution first, then forgot, but we just met him this turn, so no loss. The wb is headed nw, just doesn't look like it.

What exactly did we achieve by spending an early settler in your scenario?

As Mutineer said, Izzy would have to DoW us to capture Dyes City, so we get a bonus DoW, on top of our 2 allowed DoWs.

We definitely want to settle the ivory first

Yes.

As LC has mentioned, it's unlikely that she will settle the dye given its distance from Madrid and her low city count so far.

Problem is, we don't know if there's another AI to Izzy's north who might be preparing to settle the dyes.

Which reminds me, the opening post for this game indicated that barbs defend the fur tile, so it's probably set up so that the other AI won't be able to grab the fur any time soon. That means we probably just have to figure out how we're going to gather the three other resources using our two dows.

The barb/furs city might be surrounded by an AI and we might have to DoW the AI and capture a city where we can build sea vessels to access the barb city...

I doubt zara will settle sugarisland that soon, worstcase we could cancel OB with him, however I'm not so hot on that site...

He settles it in most of my test games.

If we did settle the dye site how could we possibly defend it?

We don't. Instead, we send gold-embossed invitations to Izzy to DoW us and capture with an unpromoted warrior.

 

[mdy]

Can't we rely on her to attack us anyway without going to the trouble of founding the dyes city? We will have the elephant island city just outside her capital.

 

[mystyfly]

Problem is that it's no land target I think.

 

[Mutineer]

seens having dyes is one of necessities for victory and settling them guaranty they for us one way or an other, we need to settle it.

we will see, but one of option is depends on how mach space is have available is to quickly send 3 settlers there and spawn colony.. Cheaper and limit Issy expansion, making it easier for as in the future. we will see what future exploration will show.

 

[shyuhe]

I agree with Mysty - we really need to stop building settlers/workers in Delhi and Bombay. Those two citiesn eed to grow to around size 8-10 ASAP so that we can put get the most out of them. I'm not too keen on building the settler in 2-fish either, since that city needs to get cranking on great people. So either we build the settler somewhere else like oasis or rice, or we just pass on the dye. Other thoughts on this?

 

[shyuhe]

Can't we rely on her to attack us anyway without going to the trouble of founding the dyes city? We will have the elephant island city just outside her capital.

We need to be a land target - i.e., settle the dye city. I don't think we want to make a colony in this game - it will complicate tech trading unnecessarily. I'd be more ok with putting the settler for dye off another 10-20 turns in favor of growing Delhi to at least size 10.

 

[Silu]

Now now. If an AI is alone on a landmass then land targets do not mean nearly as much. For total wars (the most common war type for most leaders), they mean nothing in that case except of course through raising the number of border land plots. Not being a LT does prevent limited wars and dogpiles though.

I'm fine with settling the Dye but we shouldn't bust our balls doing that IMO.

 

[mdy]

In my experience the AI will attack across the water quite often, especially if the only potential targets are across water. This is significantly more likely if you they are fairly close to one another (which we will be with the ivory city).

If we did found a city purely in order to increase the chances of her attacking us, it does not have to be the dyes city, so it is not time critical. If she does settle it we could always found one else where later and save on the maintenance, whilst allowing Delhi/Bombay to grow.

Colonies are a big no no in my opinion. We need to keep all AI's alive including colony AI's. If we founded one on Izzy's landmass there is a risk that she could wipe it out before we had a chance to stop her.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Can't we rely on her to attack us anyway without going to the trouble of founding the dyes city? We will have the elephant island city just outside her capital.

Good question. My reading of this and this is that we have two basic possibilities: Izzy is alone ("lonely heart") or not.

EDIT: THe following should read: If she decides to prepare for a war with anyone ("enough on my hands"), then...

If she's not alone, then the other guy's religion is Judaism, so if he isn't too powerful, she'll probably DoW him instead of us. That's assuming she's annoyed with him, when she is with us...

If she's alone and there's no one with their capital much closer to her than ours is to her, then she'll probably DoW us, as long as she doesn't become annoyed with Zara. Since Zara's capital is closer to her than ours is, Zara will be chosen as her target if her attitude to both of us is the same and Zara isn't too powerful, which he won't ever be.

Depending on her iPeaceWeightRand, she has to be -5 to -7 visible to become annoyed with Zara, so that's not likely to happen for quite a while.

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The odds that she'll decide to consider a war are slightly more than 1% each turn. Then there's one more factor that I don't know the details on: The above only refers to "having enough on her hands." She can still change her mind and not DoW us, iirc, if she doesn't succeed in accumulating enough units and getting them to our borders in time. If we have a city on her landmass, it's a lot easier for her to get the units next to our border in time.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I agree with Mysty - we really need to stop building settlers/workers in Delhi and Bombay. Those two cities need to grow to around size 8-10 ASAP so that we can put get the most out of them. I'm not too keen on building the settler in 2-fish either, since that city needs to get cranking on great people. So either we build the settler somewhere else like oasis or rice, or we just pass on the dye. Other thoughts on this?

Currently I'm planning two more settlers in the next 5t with no poprushing in Delhi. That's 3 settlers total for 4 cities. How about if we prioritize our upcoming cities?

My priorities would be:
1. Ivory Island
2. Marble City
3. Dyes City
4. Sugar Island.