SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

But getting a GE opens up the gift-the-UN plan, which bypasses any concerns about Mehmed's population, no? Getting a GM will finish our research tree faster (in hopes of beating out Mehmed's population growth) but getting a GE will solidly put the game in the bag, albeit with a slightly slower victory time than a GM.
 
The U.N. gift plan is only possible by building the U.N. in gold city and gifting it to Saladin. A GE would give us 750 +30/pop hammers.

By my estimates if we stop working the gold to maximise growth once the lighthouse is built there, the population of gold city will be:

T+29 size 6 570 hammers or 6840 gold still needed
T+34 size 7 540 hammers or 6480 gold still needed
T+39 size 8 510 hammers or 6120 gold still needed
T+45 size 9 480 hammers or 5760 gold still needed
T+51 size 10 450 hammers or 5400 gold still needed
T+57 size 11 420 hammers or 5040 gold still needed
T+64 size 12 390 hammers or 4680 gold still needed

Whip overflow is not a realistic possibility given that we would need to grow the pop to maximise the benefits of the engineer, and we would only be producing 1 hammer per turn there.

Bottom line: Even with an engineer the gift U.N. to Saladin plan will take a long time to execute.

An alternative plan would be to invade Saladin and gift any captured cities to Japan. This would allow us to win quicker by building the U.N. in the capital, and in this scenario a GM would speed things up more than an engineer.

An invade Saladin plan would look something like:

Ivory:

T+4 mace
T+8 mace
T+13 mace
T+18 mace
T+21 missionary for barb island
T+23 missionary for barb island
T+25 archer
research
missionary T+28 (for Oasis T+33)
missionary T+31 (for Sugar T+36)
then wealth/research/ spare missionaries for barb island

galleons sail with 6 maces on T+18. Devils Gate should fall on T+23, and Zhou around T+28.
Second galleon sailing on T+23 with 2 missionaries, 3GP's, and 1 warrior
Third galleon sailing on T+34 with 3 warriors, final GP, and any extra missionaries

Rice:

Send warrior on coast to ivory
T+11 galleon with 1 chop, arrives ivory T+16
Delay GP so capital produces one before rice
T+21 archer, send warrior to ivory arrives T+34
Build wealth/research/maces

2 Fish:

send scientist to ivory
T+9 galleon
Hopefully next GP is merchant for Mecca
T+25 mace
Send last GP to ivory
T+40 mace
Send GP to ivory

Oasis:

T+8 mace
T+15 mace
T+23 mace
T+26 archer, send warrior to ivory
Build wealth/research/maces

Bombay:

T+5 mace
T+10 mace
T+15 mace
T+20 mace
T+25 mace
T+29 mace
T+34 mace
Build wealth/research/maces

Sugar:
T+3 mace
T+10 mace
T+17 mace
T+24 mace
T+31 mace
T+38 mace
Build wealth/reseacrh/maces

Marble:

T+24 galleon
Build wealth/research/maces


Gold:

T+19 lighthouse, stop working gold mine, maximise growth

Capital:

Send artist to ivory
work grass mines
T+11 observatory
T+15 temple, start working cottages instead
T+19 missionary for Bombay (T+20)
T+23 missionary for deer (T+24)
Continue mace
T+28 missionary for gold (T+34)
finish mace if time before starting U.N.

Incense:

chop granary, pasture horses, start lightouse

To build a fort, camp and 2 roads we will need 29 worker turns. In order to do this in a realistic timeframe we will need to capture 2 barb workers. Maybe we can use the galley near the barb island to transport one of our chariots to make a start on this?

This gives us 15 maces ready to invade Saladin in gold city by T+35
 
Ok, I'm sold. Although we might want to build some siege or set espionage to Saladin. It doesn't look like we'll be stealing from Zara any time soon as it is.

Does anybody remember what our ETA is to liberalism (radio) -- mass media?
 
Thoughts:
1. Popping a GE in 2Fish is THE IDEAL THING. We use it to build the UN in Delhi in 2t. We immediately start a golden age to 1) speed up our GP production, thus getting another GM from 2FIsh, and 2) gain more commerce, which lessens the effect of missing the GM. Nothing could be better than a GE in 2Fish asap.
2. If we don't get a GE before MM, then we should run a golden age to build the UN faster.
3. Delhi should be able to complete the UN in 10t absolute max, with Guilds. It should be at pop16 with a full granary (turn on No Growth to prevent stupid mistakes), it should have something pre-built for max overflow into MM + T0. All workshops should be prebuilt for max overflow into MM + T0 (one worker available for each workshop completion). One corn should be workshopped. Buddhist Temple should be built.
4. We should be actively trading techs to encourage AIs to research Guilds and Gunpowder (for Chemistry and +1:hammers:). We should NOT be thinking about trading Toku CS unless it gets him to research Guilds or GP. We SHOULD be thinking about trading Toku or anyone else X, Y, and Z so they'll research GUilds and GP. This is urgent.
5. We should KNOW, right now, exactly what we need to do to have all of the Delhi workshops built on MM + T0. (Of course, if we get the GE, this plan can be altered, but we can't count on that.) Do we need the Hagia Sophia to build the workshops faster?
6. We should probably DoW Saladin asap and get Toku in it too. We can get up to +5plusmods from Toku for shared war. Forget about gifting the UN city. If we also getr at least 1 TOku city with Buddhism, then it's remotely possible we'll be able to get Toku up to +8 (he has a hidden -2 on us, don't forget, but he could forget some of his negmods for us).
7. The real goal for DoWing Sal is to get a GG.
8. We should strongly consider having a galleon chain from Ivory to the Furs. A small part of it can be completed after MM, if not possible before.
9. We need to know asap whether we even need to capture any barb cities to connect the furs to our cities. If not, don't bother. Beat down on Sal instead.
10. Be prepared to gift Sal a city in a peace treaty to keep him alive.
11. Why no catapults?

EDIT:
12. COnsider getting others into war with Sal for the shared war plusmods if needed to get them to Friendly for trading monopoly techs. Also, Silu might check what's necessary to prevent an AP vote against the war with Sal.
 
@shyuhe,
I think about 30t to Lib Radio is realistic. Depends a bit on whether we can use two bulbs or just one, and how much wealth/research building we get to do.

Nice work, mdy. :goodjob:

It looks like our mace production is a bit front-heavy, which means we'll have to commit to attacking Saladin fairly early (next set). There's really no reason not to, I suppose, even if Mehmed doesn't grow too much.

Can we confirm which of Saladin's cities Toku would accept? I'm assuming it's not all.

If we are committed to taking Saladin ourselves, we could maybe incite a war between Toku and Justinian? We can't bribe Justinian right now, but I'm wondering if that could change soon as our diplo gets better?

Are we still gifting Toku CS?

Edit: x-post with LC.
 
Thoughts:
1. Popping a GE in 2Fish is THE IDEAL THING. We use it to build the UN in Delhi in 2t. We immediately start a golden age to 1) speed up our GP production, thus getting another GM from 2FIsh, and 2) gain more commerce, which lessens the effect of missing the GM. Nothing could be better than a GE in 2Fish asap.
We'll run out of cash before we can pop a GM from the next great person if we burn one on a golden age. For that matter, I can try to re-calculate from our current GPP production to see if a golden age gives a net benefit. I'm inclined to guess no, since it'll force us to pop a very expensive great person later.

2. If we don't get a GE before MM, then we should run a golden age to build the UN faster.
I don't think we'll have any spare great people to do this since it takes a long time to ferry any newly popped GP to the fur.

3. Delhi should be able to complete the UN in 10t absolute max, with Guilds. It should be at pop16 with a full granary (turn on No Growth to prevent stupid mistakes), it should have something pre-built for max overflow into MM + T0. All workshops should be prebuilt for max overflow into MM + T0 (one worker available for each workshop completion). One corn should be workshopped. Buddhist Temple should be built.
We need the two corns to provide food for the workshops. Delhi can work the two northern hills, silver, ice iron (4 hammer tile), 4 plains workshops, two corn, and 6 grass workshops. So we should start the terraforming of Delhi now since we're never going to work the undeveloped plains cottages at this point. I'd save the terraforming of the last 3 grass workshops until right before UN construction (cancel worker actions 1 turn from completion).

4. We should be actively trading techs to encourage AIs to research Guilds and Gunpowder (for Chemistry and +1:hammers:). We should NOT be thinking about trading Toku CS unless it gets him to research Guilds or GP. We SHOULD be thinking about trading Toku or anyone else X, Y, and Z so they'll research GUilds and GP. This is urgent.
Why do we not want to trade Toku CS? It gives him irrigated farms and samurais, both of which should help his population growth. I think we will have to self-tech guilds and gunpowder as I'm not sure we'll get the AI to friendly AND get them to research the techs we need before we complete mass media. Emperor AI tech slow.

5. We should KNOW, right now, exactly what we need to do to have all of the Delhi workshops built on MM + T0. (Of course, if we get the GE, this plan can be altered, but we can't count on that.) Do we need the Hagia Sophia to build the workshops faster?
A workshop takes 9 worker turns on epic, and we want 4 plains and 6 grass. So that's 90 worker turns. Better get cranking!

6. We should probably DoW Saladin asap and get Toku in it too. We can get up to +5plusmods from Toku for shared war. Forget about gifting the UN city. If we also getr at least 1 TOku city with Buddhism, then it's remotely possible we'll be able to get Toku up to +8 (he has a hidden -2 on us, don't forget, but he could forget some of his negmods for us).
+5 shared war will take a long time to accumulate I think. Plus, we don't have the military troops around to protect the gold city. I'd be willing to declare as soon as we have a reasonable military force on that continent and we are SURE that we can immediately bribe Toku into war with us.

7. The real goal for DoWing Sal is to get a GG.
This incurs ferrying logistical issues...

8. We should strongly consider having a galleon chain from Ivory to the Furs. A small part of it can be completed after MM, if not possible before.

9. We need to know asap whether we even need to capture any barb cities to connect the furs to our cities. If not, don't bother. Beat down on Sal instead.
We need to at least capture/raze Zhou. And to reach Zhou, you have to capture Devilsgate. So yes we need to capture both and we might as well keep them since they're fairly large.

10. Be prepared to gift Sal a city in a peace treaty to keep him alive.
Shouldn't be a problem.

11. Why no catapults?
We'll probably want 4-5. I don't think Saladin will hit engineering and castles in time to put up much defense but I could be wrong.

EDIT:
12. COnsider getting others into war with Sal for the shared war plusmods if needed to get them to Friendly for trading monopoly techs. Also, Silu might check what's necessary to prevent an AP vote against the war with Sal.
This might be good insurance, and help with the guilds/gunpowder teching. However, given that some AI don't even have feudalism yet, I'm really hesitant to think that they'll get the techs we want.
 
Just another thought, but if we start gifting cities to Toku, isn't that going to give us -4 with all of our buddies? If so, it's going to be hard to get the votes to win on a first vote.
 
Just another thought, but if we start gifting cities to Toku, isn't that going to give us -4 with all of our buddies? If so, it's going to be hard to get the votes to win on a first vote.

Japan is currently just the worst enemy of Saladin and Justin. Saladin doesn't matter, and if push comes to shove we can win without Justin (though we should still be able to get his vote, even with a -4 modifier).

Why no catapults?

Because we don't have construction, and we can't count on the AI being willing to trade it. If we can trade for it later, we can modify the build queues.


8. We should strongly consider having a galleon chain from Ivory to the Furs. A small part of it can be completed after MM, if not possible before.
9. We need to know asap whether we even need to capture any barb cities to connect the furs to our cities. If not, don't bother. Beat down on Sal instead.

The spy can do this in the next few turns, given the map setup it seems unlikely though. Given what we need to transport there a galleon chain probably won't be needed.

4. We should be actively trading techs to encourage AIs to research Guilds and Gunpowder (for Chemistry and +1). We should NOT be thinking about trading Toku CS unless it gets him to research Guilds or GP. We SHOULD be thinking about trading Toku or anyone else X, Y, and Z so they'll research GUilds and GP. This is urgent.

CS would make it easier for Japan to take AI cities. Liberalism is in no danger at this point, and Japan is more likely than most AI's to research the guilds line. CS would actually help him get there quicker due to the bureaucracy bonus. I doubt we will be able to get our diplo modifiers high enough to trade for him even if he does get it though.

We can't bribe Justinian right now, but I'm wondering if that could change soon as our diplo gets better?

I suspect Japan is too powerful for this too work.

7. The real goal for DoWing Sal is to get a GG.

We would have to DOW much earlier for this too work if it is to get to the furs on time, I'm not sure this is a good idea.


5. We should KNOW, right now, exactly what we need to do to have all of the Delhi workshops built on MM + T0. (Of course, if we get the GE, this plan can be altered, but we can't count on that.) Do we need the Hagia Sophia to build the workshops faster?

Ideally at size 16 we would be working 2 corns, 2 grass mines, and 8 grassland workshops, 1 iron mine, and 3 plains workshops.

The iron mine can easily be prebuilt using the worker outside Delhi.

We have 7 workers in total. It takes 10 turns to workshop a tile. If 3 workers start preworkshopping the capital 20 turns before mass media, and the remaining 4 10 turns before mass media we should be able to complete all the workshops by 1T after mass media. Building 3 workers just to get 3 workshops 1T earlier seems counterproductive.
 
Does the 7 worker number take into account the workers we need to send to the barb island for furs? Or are we going to just build workers out there for the fur? In the worse case scenario, we'll need 10-15 turns to build the UN in Delhi so we can whip 2-3 workers out there too.
 
about gp's.
Rememebr, we will get 1 from physics, and we potentially can get 1 from economics (will be very cheap) and from communism ( a bit more expensive).
 
We'll run out of cash before we can pop a GM from the next great person if we burn one on a golden age. For that matter, I can try to re-calculate from our current GPP production to see if a golden age gives a net benefit. I'm inclined to guess no, since it'll force us to pop a very expensive great person later.
Of course we don't burn a GM on a GA if that's what you meant. My main point is that the GA will cost our economy much less gold per turn for ten turns. THe question is, when will 2FIsh produce the next GM if it produces a GE now, including 10 turns of +100%gppts. And of course, the odds are minimal that we'll get a GE anyway. It's just not the catastrophe that mdy is suggesting--to the contrary, it'd be great. It would free us up to build the galleon chain, war with Sal, etc etc etc etc etc.
I don't think we'll have any spare great people to do this since it takes a long time to ferry any newly popped GP to the fur.
We would have to DOW much earlier for this too work if it is to get to the furs on time, I'm not sure this is a good idea.
The spy can do this in the next few turns, given the map setup it seems unlikely though. Given what we need to transport there a galleon chain probably won't be needed.
This is why we want a galleon chain--to ferry GPs to the furs at the last possible minute. THis could include a GG form warring, a GM from Econ or a GG from Communism. We don't necessarily have to stop researching when we get to MM. THink BIG guys. If I had time to do this right, which I simply don't, I'd be investigating the possibility of running two golden ages. IF we get a GE, then maybe we don't need to kill our towns and cottages in Delhi. How many towns will we have then? Maybe we could just run Univ Suff and get 2h per town for building the UN fast enough, while researching Communism, etc. If we can run two golden ages, that's for sure the fastest possible tech path. (I fully expect other teams to get a couple of GGs from warring and thus be able to run multiple GAs and/or bulb everything in sight.)

The GA would also give us a huge production boost for building those units.

Why do we not want to trade Toku CS? It gives him irrigated farms and samurais, both of which should help his population growth. I think we will have to self-tech guilds and gunpowder as I'm not sure we'll get the AI to friendly AND get them to research the techs we need before we complete mass media. Emperor AI tech slow.
My logic is simple: Trade the techs that get AIs on the GUIlds and/or GP path. So someone (Silu?) should figure out what techs the AIs need to get to make it most likely for them to PICK Guilds/GP next. It's always a crapshoot, but they surely prioritize those techs when they have the prereqs.
CS would make it easier for Japan to take AI cities. Liberalism is in no danger at this point, and Japan is more likely than most AI's to research the guilds line. CS would actually help him get there quicker due to the bureaucracy bonus. I doubt we will be able to get our diplo modifiers high enough to trade for him even if he does get it though.
What about gifting CS to other AIs, along with the Guilds/GP prereq techs? I'm just saying. I haven't done any calcs on this.



+5 shared war will take a long time to accumulate I think. Plus, we don't have the military troops around to protect the gold city. I'd be willing to declare as soon as we have a reasonable military force on that continent and we are SURE that we can immediately bribe Toku into war with us.
Shared war increments every 8t, so we need 32t to get to +5. We only need a mace or two on the gold and in gold city to protect it. The sooner Sal attacks gold city, the better for GG points. It would be smart of course, to protect the crabs with a galleon or trireme also, of course, but we could risk that, I suppose. You guys want to give Toku CS, what about doing it for the bribe to war? And if Sal happens to capture Gold, so what? We capture it back a couple of turns later.


We need to at least capture/raze Zhou. And to reach Zhou, you have to capture Devilsgate. So yes we need to capture both and we might as well keep them since they're fairly large.
We don't know that yet. NOt until we defog more tiles.

Ideally at size 16 we would be working 2 corns, 2 grass mines, and 8 grassland workshops, 1 iron mine, and 3 plains workshops.

The iron mine can easily be prebuilt using the worker outside Delhi.

We have 7 workers in total. It takes 10 turns to workshop a tile. If 3 workers start preworkshopping the capital 20 turns before mass media, and the remaining 4 10 turns before mass media we should be able to complete all the workshops by 1T after mass media. Building 3 workers just to get 3 workshops 1T earlier seems counterproductive.
YOur plan gives us 130hpt, with guilds. With a full granary, we should also be able to finish a corn workshop for 8hpt for most of the needed 10t max to finish the UN, without out losing pop.

We should be ready to flip as many workshops as possible the SAME turn as MM, or even better the turn before if possible, so we get max overflow into the UN from some building or unit that we finished the preceding turn.

Do any AIs have Construction yet? If so, let's get them to Friendly asap. Do we have any galley/galleon close to our west coast for transporting units? Start the war with Sal asap. Be a bit reckless. Be fearless. It's only a crappy city that we can recapture, plus Sal's an idiot and if Japan DoWs the same turn, the odds are Sal will send his units toward Japan.

Be prepared to trade for someone's gold if needed, etc.

-----------

Delhi should build the buddhist temple first for the +2 or +3 hpt. Don't forget it gets a +100% production bonus.
 
That point confuse me too we have spare GA to burn for golden age.

No one ever suggest to use GM or GS or GE for golden age.

But for golden age we need to see of we can push out GP from other secondary cities, like rice, marble and sugar. So my guess golden age coming after we push gp from capital.
 
OK, looks like it's time to bust out the spreadsheet...

Here's the pop count that I have for the civs:

Just - 52
Toku - 84
Sala - 38
US - 85
Zara - 26
Izzy - 29
Mehmed - 71
Total - 385

So we actually may not be able to even do the gift-a-UN plan since Toku may overtake us in population :lol:

F8 says we need 238/384 votes, so we have us (85) + Zara (26) + Izzy (29) + Mehmed (71) Justinian (52) = 263. So right now, it looks like we should whittle Saladin down (possibly vassalize him) and gift a city or two to Toku in the process. I'm starting to think the best plan may be to declare war on Saladin once we have defenders in place for gold, then immediately bribe Toku in to war against Saladin by giving him CS. This should pretty much guarantee that he becomes our opponent since he'll take a city or two off of Saladin. However, if we declare on Saladin, we're going to get -1 from Izzy, Justinian, and Zara :(
 
OK, here's the current numbers:

T+6 - 96%GS in marble
T+11 - 96%GM in 2-fish
T+22 - 97%GS in rice
T+29 - 96% XXX in 2-fish
T+37 - 59%GE/41%GS in Delhi
T+51 - 100% XXX in marble

2-fish has a 1/3 full bar, rice has a 1/2 full bar, and marble is 2/3 full. So we realistically can't expect to change the odds much by hiring an engineer at this point. That being said, I think we need to go with the GM for T+11 since we won't get the next GM until T+29 (way too late).

We currently have in stock a GA and GS. We will get a GS from physics, and possibly a GM from economics. The T+29 GP won't affect our research since we'll presumably have enough gold to get through mass media. So we should definitely add engineer pollution for that guy. So I propose the following use:

T+6 - bulb on physics
T+11 - trade mission
T+22 - bulb on electricity
T+29 - trade mission (rush buy?)/GE
T+37 - GE/GS (golden age fodder)
T+51 - doesn't matter since it's for the VC.

Right now, we'll complete mass media on T+48 with a steady state 617 bpt and -106 gpt. I imagine the gpt will get worse and bpt will get better but I don't think it'll change significantly from this estimate right now. If we need 10 turns to build the UN after getting mass media, then we can easily burn T+29 on rush buy, T+51 for the VC, and the economics GM for the VC as well (giving us 4). This would put victory around T+48+10+8 (I think?). If T+29 or T+37 yields a GE, then that will open up options of course since we can then use a golden age to crank through mass media and economics if necessary (highly highly unlikely).

Incidentally, I calculate that a golden age will give us an additional 100 bpt right now. We're heavily reliant on rep. specs right now so it doesn't give us many beakers. Also, we're short about 700 gold at the end but I'm confident we can back sell with the AI to raise that amount over the next 40 turns.
 

Attachments

T+6 - 96%GS in marble
T+11 - 96%GM in 2-fish
T+22 - 97%GS in rice
T+29 - 96% XXX in 2-fish
T+37 - 59%GE/41%GS in Delhi
T+51 - 100% XXX in marble


Right now, we'll complete mass media on T+48 with a steady state 617 bpt

I estimated we can get mass media just after T+30, with victory coming after T+45. We can get a golden age on this timescale, but it means changing our GP plan somewhat:

The physics scientist is used to bulb electricity

T+0 Hire merchants instead of scientist in marble. Send current artist and scientist to ivory.
T+6 Generate GP in marble. If it is a scientist send to ivory. If it is a merchant send to Mecca, and hire scientists + engineer in place of merchants in 2 fish. Rehire scientists in marble.
T+11 Generate a GP in 2 fish. If it is a merchant and we don't already have one send to Mecca, if we do send to ivory. If it is an engineer save in capital. If it is a scientist also send to ivory. If it is an artist curse the RNG a thousand times for screwing us again. Fire all scientists in rice.
T+13 rehire 5 scientist in rice (should now be at pop 14)
T+23 GP generated in capital, if it is an engineer and we don't have one keep in capital, otherwise send to ivory. Fire capital specialists. Starve rice by hiring 3 more specialists. Starve 2 fish by hiring extra specialist there
T+28 Generate GP in rice. Fire 3 scientists. Hire an extra specialist in 2 fish
T+31 Final specialist generated in 2 fish. If GE and we don't already have one send to capital, otherwise send to ivory

This leaves us with 1 surplus GP being sent to ivory if we get an engineer (2 if we don't get an engineer) for additional golden ages/ bulbing.

Assumptions: We successfully spread Buddishm to rice on T+2

Just - 52
Toku - 84
Sala - 38
US - 85
Zara - 26
Izzy - 29
Mehmed - 71
Total - 385

This is excellent! Japan may well become the largest Civ without us having to attack Saladin. I wouldn't worry about Japan overtaking us at the largest Civ, we will easily be able to outgrow him.

bribe Toku in to war against Saladin by giving him CS.

Can we do this, while he is at cautious with us.

And of course, the odds are minimal that we'll get a GE anyway. It's just not the catastrophe that mdy is suggesting--to the contrary, it'd be great. It would free us up to build the galleon chain, war with Sal, etc etc etc etc etc.

I think someone estimated that a GM was worth about 10 000 beakers earlier, that's a very big loss to take. With the above GP plan our odds of getting an engineer are 60% - hardly minimal. We can build the galleon chain and war with Saladin anyway, whatever we do with our GP plan.

Delhi should build the buddhist temple first for the +2 or +3 hpt. Don't forget it gets a +100% production bonus.

In terms of hammers this is most efficient, but as we are limited by research for now, the extra beakers from the observatory are more important.
 
@mdy - if you use the physics scientist on electricity, it only saves 5 turns of research (roughly 3000 beakers). That still puts us at T+43 for the completion of mass media unless our research pace increases significantly. Can you look at my spreadsheet and tell me how you're finishing research 10 turns before me? Am I using too low of a bpt estimate?

Your GPP plan sounds right. We'll just have to see what the RNG throws our way. Ideally we want one GM from the next two pops and then a GE in the next three pops.
 
additional argument in favor of trying for GE at all time:
if we get GE early, it frees capital from producing GP, we can immediately fire all specialists in capital and work cottages and grow it. That make maximum use of bureaucracy capital with 200+% to research bonuses and production bonuses.
 
additional argument in favor of trying for GE at all time:
if we get GE early, it frees capital from producing GP, we can immediately fire all specialists in capital and work cottages and grow it. That make maximum use of bureaucracy capital with 200+% to research bonuses and production bonuses.

A representation scientist is worth more than an unimproved cottage at this point, since we're stopping research in 40-50 turns and we're going to be bulldozing those cottages anyways. We really need a GM in the next two GPP to maintain 100% research.
 
representation scientist gives 6 base research.
you need just 4 commerce to get 6 after bureaucracy. so 3 commerce tie + 1 commerce tie.
Grow which food containing ties do will overcome scientist reasonably fast and increase production is important.
 
I think the only tiles left in Delhi's BFC that weren't not working right now are three riverside plains tiles, two hills, ice iron, and two tundra hills. It'll take forever to grow on riverside plains and hills so I don't see any reason to fire the specialists now.

Also, to maintain 100% research, we NEED another GM. Otherwise we'll run out of cash at T+17 and remain cash strapped for the next 20 turns.
 
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