SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

What is the current population of 2Fish?

Edit:
Can we currently bribe Izzy into war against Sal or is she too afraid of him?

 

[babybluepants]

13

I wouldn't give up an extra GP at this stage for any extra research and, like shyuhe said, it's only marginally better research at best.

Research rate:
We should have approximately 26k beakers left to Radio and 34k to MM. Our current rate is about 740bpt after 1.2x, and it would up to about 810bpt if we hired scientists in Two Fish after 11t, with Delhi also getting an Observatory. We're likely to further increase marginally as it goes on. With one GS bulb (2505b ATM) we'd be done in approximately 40t, with two it would be 37t. I'm guessing we would get a marginal increase in beaker rate, so maybe 1t faster on each of those.

I guess I'm also not sure how mdy's getting T+30. Maybe we're missing some major increase in research rate. Or, are you assuming building research?

 

[mdy]

you need just 4 commerce to get 6 after bureaucracy. so 3 commerce tie + 1 commerce tie.

True, but if we fire the specialist we will lose a GP, which will massively outway the gain from working the cottages.

Can you look at my spreadsheet and tell me how you're finishing research 10 turns before me? Am I using too low of a bpt estimate?

I' ll have a look, but I probably won't have time to do it for a few hours.

 

[shyuhe]

@bbp - I've included beaker calculations in my spreadsheet. How are you getting 740bpt as our current bpt?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Btw, I need another screenshot of the F8 diplo screen, if someone would be so kind, but it has to be a normal one, that is, the kind that allows you to zoom in once and see it clearly. The previous one is all blurry and useless to me.

 

[shyuhe]

This is unrelated but if we're not going to grow Delhi any more, isn't it better to shift the grass cottage tile to the silver mine? It'll give us a lot more in terms of raw research.

 

[babybluepants]

I thought we were still growing Delhi. mdy was talking about size 16 in the end.

@bbp - I've included beaker calculations in my spreadsheet. How are you getting 740bpt as our current bpt?

I missed your spreadsheet earlier. The actual beaker rate should include the automatic 20% multiplier: 617 x 1.2 = 740. Remember our discussion from Short Quickie?

 

[LowtherCastle]

In all this hype to figure out our GPs and beakers, I don't see anyone trying to figure out how we'll get the AIs to tech for us. Is there no chance for them to research guilds for us? Does anyone already have Feudalism?

Izzy and Mehmed will be Friendly with us at +12 visible. Zara and Justinian at +10 visible. How soon will any of them reach Friendly?

 

[babybluepants]

Saladin and Justinian are the only ones with Feudalism. I posted somewhere a few pages back when they got it... I believe Justinian was some 5-6t back. Don't know much about AI research choices. Maybe Silu can comment on that?

Justinian could be up to friendly a.s.a. the others with a loaded tech trade, btw.

 

[shyuhe]

I thought we were still growing Delhi. mdy was talking about size 16 in the end.


I missed your spreadsheet earlier. The actual beaker rate should include the automatic 20% multiplier: 617 x 1.2 = 740. Remember our discussion from Short Quickie?

I've actually completely forgotten that discussion... Is that the multiplier for having multiple pre-req techs?

 

[Silu]

Saladin and Justinian are the only ones with Feudalism. I posted somewhere a few pages back when they got it... I believe Justinian was some 5-6t back. Don't know much about AI research choices. Maybe Silu can comment on that?

Justinian could be up to friendly a.s.a. the others with a loaded tech trade, btw.

What do you mean by research choices? Like if the other dudes are likely to choose Feuda->Guilds? A very convoluted issue and hard to generalize except by gut-feelings like "AIs usually favor Alpha over Aesth". Nigh impossible to say if any AIs are going to research Guilds in the next few dozen turns. Since only a handful have even Feuda, it's not that probable at least.

I've actually completely forgotten that discussion... Is that the multiplier for having multiple pre-req techs?

That multiplier is having the necessary pre-reqs. Each optional pre-req on top of that is another +20%.

Izzy and Mehmed will be Friendly with us at +12 visible. Zara and Justinian at +10 visible. How soon will any of them reach Friendly?

Hmm? I would have thought each of Izzy, Mehmed, Justinian will be at Friendly @ visible +11 (+10 +1 to offset Noble+ human peaceweight), and ZY at +10 (ZY's default love offsets the peaceweight). How did you get those numbers?

 

[babybluepants]

I've actually completely forgotten that discussion... Is that the multiplier for having multiple pre-req techs?

You get 20% for mandatory pre-reqs and +20% for every optional pre-req.

Examples:
Agriculture gets 1x
Scientific Method with PP & Astro gets 1.2x
Scientific Method with PP, Astro & Chem gets 1.4x
Writing with AH, PH & Pottery gets 1.6x

I believe this corresponds to white lines on F6 (20% per white line), but I'm not super sure that always applies.

Edit: x-post with Silu.

 

[shyuhe]

Ok, I added the 20% bonus for SM, physics, and liberalism. It brings MM completion down to approximately T+40 (with an estimated increase in bpt from 617 to 700 on T+11).

I don't see how triggering a golden age will speed up this process any, since we'll need to generate an extra great person later and we may need to tech through guilds--chemistry if we don't get the GE on T+29. On the other hand, if we don't get the GM on T+11, it'll really slow down our tech rate from T+16 and on. Using the T+32 GPP to trigger a golden age post mass media (if no engineer) may be worthwhile though. In that case, we'll substitute the last GPP from marble for the 4th VC GPP (including our existing artist, scientist, and physics scientist). Note that we can substitute T+6 and T+22 with the physics scientist but we have NO replacement for the T+11 GM.

 

[babybluepants]

You should add it for Elec and MM, as well.
GS bulb = 2250b + 3*Pop = 2505 right now.
Won't make much of a difference. The timeline is circa 38-40t, I think.

 

[shyuhe]

I thought it only applies if there's a pre-req tech in the tech box? Electricity and MM don't have a pre-req so I don't think it applies. Either way though, you're right. We won't finish MM until around turn 38-40. I need to count how many towns we'll have in Delhi at that point, but it might be better to use the T+32 GPP on a merchant to help rush-buy the UN and adopt universal suffrage to build the UN (as a back-up to Delhi's GE). We can substitute in either the economics GM or communism spy as the 4th VC GP in that plan. Either way though, I think our GPP generation is pretty much set in stone through the T+29 Delhi GPP.

 

[Silu]

Electricity has Physics as prereq, MM has Radio. Only techs that don't get the +20% (= are without prerequisites) are the 6 starting techs.

 

[babybluepants]

Without cash for deficit research (runs out in circa T+40), we're looking at something like 16t for Communism, or 12t for Banking-Economics, even without razing Delhi cottages for workshops. With some 8-10t transport to fur, that just seems late for a VC GP (assuming we have votes locked up at Mass Media). Am I missing something?

 

[mdy]

I misunderstood how the tech multiplier worked, I now agree that T+40 is a more realistic date for the U.N.

Our only realistic chance of helping an AI to research guilds for us looks like trading machinery to Justin for theology and 50 gold.

Without cash for deficit research (runs out in circa T+40), we're looking at something like 16t for Communism, or 12t for Banking-Economics, even without razing Delhi cottages for workshops. With some 8-10t transport to fur, that just seems late for a VC GP

I agree, I can't see how relying on these GP's can do anything except delay our victory date.

Btw, I need another screenshot of the F8 diplo screen, if someone would be so kind, but it has to be a normal one, that is, the kind that allows you to zoom in once and see it clearly. The previous one is all blurry and useless to me.

If you click on the atatched screenshot you can zoom in on it.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Only techs that don't get the +20% (= are without prerequisites) are the 6 starting techs.

Astronomy also does NOT get the 20% bonus. It's an anomaly. That's why you always want to bulb it, if possible.

What do you mean by research choices? Like if the other dudes are likely to choose Feuda->Guilds? A very convoluted issue and hard to generalize except by gut-feelings like "AIs usually favor Alpha over Aesth". Nigh impossible to say if any AIs are going to research Guilds in the next few dozen turns. Since only a handful have even Feuda, it's not that probable at least.

We can increase the likelihood if we could gift him all the cheaper techs and have him choosing between something like Philo, Paper, GUilds and Astro.

Hmm? I would have thought each of Izzy, Mehmed, Justinian will be at Friendly @ visible +11 (+10 +1 to offset Noble+ human peaceweight), and ZY at +10 (ZY's default love offsets the peaceweight). How did you get those numbers?

iAttitudeChange = -1 (handicap for Emporer)
iBaseAttitude = -1 for Izzy and Mehmed, 1 for Justy, 2 for Zara

Note: I don't know why my spreadsheet is giving me 0 for Zara, seems like it should be +1, so that Zara should be Friendly at +9 visible (contrary to what I said above).

 

[LowtherCastle]

Can someone tell me exactly how many UN hammers 2550g buys in a cash rush? (Not the formula, just the answer.)


If we can't get Guilds, then US + Towns + GA may be better than workshopping over the town.