I also think we should try to raze Lyons before Churchill can take it. It will simplify things later, and we have enough units to do this+fight the China war. As the war will only last a couple of turn WW should not be a major problem.
If we need to gift a city to Churchill to steal steam power we could consider 4S of Rheims. It would be more expensive than Marseilles, but would mean we would not have to leave one of Churchill's cities behind our lines. Does anyone know under what conditions Gandhi would be willing to liberate galley city to us? This would be another alternative.
I can't see how killing Churchill will be difficult. We have a large tech lead and much more than the unit production capacity we need.
We won't have many troops at all in France by about T+10-15 or so (GP will barely get started drafting, we're thinking about delaying further siege builds in Moscow for IAgency), so setting up the chain would require some gymnastics if Churchill has Lyons. Unless I'm really missing something...
By my estimate we should be able to start drafting on T+7 (we can draft the turn before the Globe is built without losing anything), so we should be all right.
Difficult in the sense that it will take significant production of military units. His land area is large so it will be somewhat slow going and he will have protective longbows. Even cannons will die on those occasionally, so by the end of the war we will have war weariness that will negatively affect us. I'm not saying we won't win just that it will be expensive.
Could we gift Bananas to Churchill for stealing and recapture immediately?
I agree with bribing Churchill to DoP dG for Philosphy + gold. In fact, I think it's a brilliant idea to get him to build Angkor Wat for us in London. (Gandhi has not built a single wonder yet and is surely not building any wonder now, btw.)
There are other good reasons to DoP Chruchill now. We accumulate WW points with dG from capturing Lyons, which like mdy said, will be irrelevant as soon as we CF him. CHruchill on the other hand will give us a huge amount of WW, so we want to minimize that. dG doesn't have lbs yet and is not protective. Lyons is a bad place to start our Chruchill campaign. And maybea bad time too.
EDIT: Also important: Paris needs that axe garrison back NOW! It will become unhappy at pop8 or DoW de Gaulle or more fighting with Mao, whichever comes first.
Marseilles is a great city to add Confucianism and gift to CHurchill for Steam Power. It will only cost about 100EPs more. We just need to make sure we put lots of our own culture in their first also. Unfortunately, Churchill poprushed a monument there on T177 so he's now putting his own culture in there.
Marseilles is a great city to add Confucianism and gift to CHurchill for Steam Power. It will only cost about 100EPs more. We just need to make sure we put lots of our own culture in their first also. Unfortunately, Churchill poprushed a monument there on T177 so he's now putting his own culture in there.
Do you mean take it away from Churchill and then gift it back to him? Or just let him keep it and put confu there before the war?
If we do capture it, we might not be able to give it back to him (if we haven't reduced him to 3 cities) by the time we want to steal steampower.
^^ I think we'd need to capture it if we want the cultural bonus, right?
Seems like another new city might be best. What about the copper/fish spot south of Bananas? It needs to be settled eventually for the resource anyway (Pigs will take forever for another border pop).
Edit: Nope, I guess that's 9.5 tiles away from Marseilles, if I understand the tile counting correctly.
Edit2: The closest available spot seems to be 4E of Rheims, I guess.
Obviously, there's no serious difference for distance costs, although we obviously prefer to do the expensive techs at closer distances. More important is that it's clearly in our interest to palnt spies at all three cities, since the risk of failure is 15% or more higher (edit: if we have two or more spies on the same tile).
On another note: I was thinking it would be nice to start the Churchill war with a 2t galley strike against London if possible, since it's such a major production center. That might be beyond my TS, but would require some 4 forts to transfer ships.
Do you mean take it away from Churchill and then gift it back to him? Or just let him keep it and put confu there before the war?
If we do capture it, we might not be able to give it back to him (if we haven't reduced him to 3 cities) by the time we want to steal steampower.
Yes. 1. Put confu in while we still have OBs. 2. Capture and put in max culture until we want to steal Steam Power. 3. Gift back. (Need CF for this, of course.) Yes, he'll accept any city he's ever owned.
Seems like another new city might be best. What about the copper/fish spot south of Bananas? It needs to be settled eventually for the resource anyway (Pigs will take forever for another border pop).
Edit: Nope, I guess that's 9.5 tiles away from Marseilles, if I understand the tile counting correctly.
Edit2: The closest available spot seems to be 4E of Rheims, I guess.
Copper/fish spot is 9.5 tiles away from Marseilles, which is OKAY. Must be < 10. It's also slightly cheaper for distance to capital and -50% for culture.
The drawback is that it's another city we need to settle, grow to pop2 and fertilize with COnfu before we want to capture Marseilles or at least pause and CF Churchill.
LC, I don't understand where these numbers came from. How did you get the 437, for example? What we should do is multiply the tech cost by all factors other than distance cost. This is the number that should be multiplied by 1.34, 1.22 and 1.12 to see the difference in cost. Maybe that is what you did and you just didn't show those numbers.
I also don't see how the odds of success/failure with more than one spy in a city affects our espionage plans. Isn't it easier, cheaper and more efficient to do all of our tech stealing from Galley City? If we get caught, we have several more spies and more than half of them will be successful, so we just need to have enough spies there. If they fail, they march right from Moscow back to Trojan City...
@bbp
It appeared that you suggested we settle Trojan City and hold it until the borders pop. That is not necessary. We just need to hold it for one turn.
I guessed at the distance costs and the culture bonus we would have in Marseilles.
costs another settler, confu missionary (either for Marseilles or for this city), maintenance if we grow it to 2 pop ourselves (might get away with letting Churchill grow it for us?)
(And we need to find a city to build the settler soon, and they won't be building something else instead)
One more important strategic issue I'd like to discuss for bbp's turnset: Cannons vs. trebuchets. bcool, with your test game you stirred the soup a bit...
Against CGI/II Dr I lbms, fortified in flat cities (Churchill) with all city defenses destroyed. The lbm has +95% bonus on 6 strength plus 1-2 first strikes. Our cannons and trebs both have CRI/II. For the treb that's +145% for the cannon that's +45%.
That means the lbm versus the treb is 6*(.95-1.45)=6*(-.50)=3
THe lbm versus the cannon is 6*(.95-.45)=6*(+.5)=9
Code:
lbm@3 lbm@9
treb 68%
cannon 68%
In other words, both have identical 2/3 chance of surviving! Interesting. But as I showed here, the cannon does much more collateral damage to more units and can do more total damage to the defender.
The question is: Should we just skip Steel for now and go straight to Medicine, as bbp and others proposed earlier?
To analyze this a bit more carefully, we see that we need to risk 5 trebs to gain the maximum collateral damage of 40HPs per defender. We only need to risk 3 cannons to get 42HPs of damage. So the odds are that we'll lose only one cannon for almost every two trebs we lose. That means more losses, more WW. The cannons can also bring the defenders down to 40HPs, so that our attackers will have virtually no chance of losing. Take a look at this comparison of 0XP muskets versus 40HP or 60HP lbms:
Code:
40HP 60HP
2.4 3.6
---- ----
musket 98% 66%
So the answer, imo, is yes we want Steel. In fact, we should build 2-3 cannons for the Churchill campaign, before DoW, to do the final damage from 60HP down to 40HP.
LC, I don't understand where these numbers came from. How did you get the 437, for example? What we should do is multiply the tech cost by all factors other than distance cost. This is the number that should be multiplied by 1.34, 1.22 and 1.12 to see the difference in cost. Maybe that is what you did and you just didn't show those numbers.
I also don't see how the odds of success/failure with more than one spy in a city affects our espionage plans. Isn't it easier, cheaper and more efficient to do all of our tech stealing from Galley City? If we get caught, we have several more spies and more than half of them will be successful, so we just need to have enough spies there. If they fail, they march right from Moscow back to Trojan City...
@bbp
It appeared that you suggested we settle Trojan City and hold it until the borders pop. That is not necessary. We just need to hold it for one turn.
Those are final costs for each city, for each tech, at 1.16% spending percentage. That's what bbp asked for. The differences are the same no matter how you formulate the procedure, right?
Hammers in Siberia and Bermuda (confu Monastery) are worth 1.25g in Build Wealth. After we've built Wall Street, each city with Confucianism will yield 3gpt. So a Confu Miss pays off after 40h*1.25g/h*1t/3g=17t. So spreading Confucianism to all three cities is a plus. We're planning to build the settlers either way, and the spies either way. Since the chaces of the spies surviving goes up by 15% if they're alone, it makes sense to send 1 spy each to H-2W and K-3S. As for how we decide to deal with Troy (as bbp plans to name it ), I have no problem stacking them up there, if we decide we're in a hurry to get those techs for some reason and we have the EPs to do it and the spies to do it. We can stack them in there and then make the decision at the last minute. We don't have to decide now. We need lots of spies either way.
EDIT: Btw, if the spy fails the mission, he dies (at least mine always have).
Tech Stealing
Chain: Chengdu (requires capture) - Hangzhou2W (requires Hangzhou razing) - Kamchatka3S (requires Lyons razing) - Trojan (requires border pop, Confu and stationary spy)
If Gandhi discovered Guilds, would it be tradable?
Timing: dependant on pace of conquest and pace to Steel / ep. Would you guys go for Hangzhou right after Guangzhou, or Chengdu first? I'd probably do Hangzhou and peel off a few units towards Chengdu, hoping to steal it.
LC or Mitchum, could you give me an idiot's guide summary of missionaries, spies, etc. needed? Since you've been figuring it out already...
Tech
Research Steel - Medicine - Corporation
Steal Communism - Guilds - Banking - Economics - Constitution
I think priorities are: Communism - Steel (cannons) - Guilds (workshops) - Banking (so we can work towards WS as needed) - Constitution/Economics - Corporation (WS) - Medicine
I.E. Focus on beakers towards Steel, then ep towards Roosevelt.How much do we need against him, for Guilds-Bank-Econ-Const? After that we should be working on Steam, right? No idea if this is even my TS scope, probably not.
Warring
Move on Guangzhou right away, capture in T+3 or T+4.
We'll need defensive units for the two cities, and two sets of workers, I think. Musket stays with workers; Pike temporarily into Shanghai, maybe hit the Nanjing HA in 1-2t if possible at full health; combat cover Mace stays with Beijing workers; medic Mace stays in Beijing and waits for GG.
Send 7 maces, 11 trebs and a cat to Guangzhou this turn. Or, send 6 maces, so one can cover trailing siege.
Musket and axe from Orleans go to Lyons-1SE right away - try to steal city next turn. If Churchill captures,
Trading / Diplomacy
Roosevelt: Philosophy or Optics for 340g?
Churchill: Rice for 1gpt
Look for resource trades/renogotiations and tech-cash every turn.
Demands: I think we may as well refuse everything now.
Settlers
Troy (Siberia 3S) - settler from Siberia in T+2
Vladivostok (Kamchatka 3S) - settler from Siberia in T+8 - need to raze Lyons by then
Sledgehammer - settler from ?
Hangzhou-2W - settler from Beijing in ca. T+10 - need to raze Hangzhou by then
Mao iceball - settler from Siberia
Island cities - settlers from Bahamas
Cities
Moscow: I think we should just be building siege non-stop this TS. It's probably ok to do something like CH-IA or even fail-cash prior to Steel, but I'd vote against it. I'd rather build up siege for England in advance.
Fish: finish mace - treb - market (part) - grocer (part) - bank (part) - finish market - finish grocer - bank (3pop whip w Kremlin) - WS. We need Guilds on T190 and Banking on T193 with this.
GP Farm: finish GT asap; convert grass shops and one sugar into farms on growth schedule; no barracks, I think (?); draft every turn for the remainder of TS (Taj GA over ca. T196, we may wanna switch back to Bureau then). Builds - maybe IntelAgency?
Siberia: fire spy? - settler (Troy) - grow in 3t, building missionary & spy - settler (Vladivostok) - spy
Pigs: finish Market, get started on another Uni? Hire only merchants.
Bcool Island: (Caravel?) - WB for Crabbes - infrastructure
The Crabbes: WB - infrastructure
Orleans: finish galley - infra
Shanghai: Granary - infrastructure (maybe theatre-lib first, since they're cheap and we might want an option on a fast 500c border pop for that extra fish?)
Beijing: comes out of revolt in T+4 - pop borders and starve 1 - settler (Hangzhou-2W) - Library
St Nick: wealth
Troy: spy (I wanna immediately mine a hill for it, since we have about 10t at least to chain-gifting.)
Hangz/Vladivostok: nada
Drafting: GP every turn; unfortunately, can't do from most cities in France and China. Bananas, Rheims on 10t delay, Maybe Pigs once? Cuba, Bermuda, Bahamas, but without delaying wonder builds.
Okay, now I feel like we've got the overall strategy going forward, so it makes sense to look at the details of your PPP.
1. Yes, Gandhi will trade Guilds.
2. I'd go for Chengdu first after Guangzhou if it looks like Roosy might beat you to it.
3. Summary of chain-gifting spies and ConfuMisses: 1 of both for all three cities. Station the spy at Hang-2W beforewe even capture it, if it seems like we'll be ready to steal techs within 6t. Then if we're going to try to get all remaining techs in 1t from Troy, I have 2 spies per tech + 2. That would be 3 techs if Roosy gets Corporation, assuming one of the first three spies fails. So you'd need 7-8 more spies. That's probalby too many, but that's what it might take, if we're in a hurry. I'd also put a spy in Beijing for sure, and Guangzhou too. And then I'd also put one in Xian asap and run a counter-espionage mission. Later on, we can run them in Troy. I don't want Roosy to mess with our INtel Agencies, especially in Beijing. And he will if he gets a chance. (That was the short answer...)
4. Settlers. I would prioritize Bahama settlers for the mainland for now, for chain-gifting settlers and for Hammer City asap. Island cities our lower priority, imo and you need other cities to build spies and Siberia to build Confu misses. Bermuda could even help with the COnfu Misses and spies, if necessary, although I like your Kremlin plan. Simply more important than island cities, especially since we're already up to 20 cities and now is when the maintenance costs skyrocket for the next 10 cities or so. We do want them, of course.
5. The Mao iceball city is actually not high priority for now. Mao can stay in St Nick for the time being, if needed.
6. Intel Agency in Moscow is a great idea, but I wouldn't want to stop building siege there much at all. After my last analysis, I'm thinking we're going to need more of them after all goodjob: to you). If we're going to build the Intel Agency now, I'd switch to Bureau now and get it done 1t faster.
7. I like your Fish plan. Smart move, imo, putting overflow into Wall Street. I'd even consider 1popping the builds with max overflow and then backburnering them for later completion. For now, though, I'd grow Fish at more or less max food as fast as possible.
8. THere's no reason for Beijing to lose any population. You can scrub the corn in advance and have 4 workers there to farm it the turn it comes out of resistance. There's 18f available.
Other comments:
1. I would run max merchants in Pigs one more turn. After we're still getting the +100 GPPs for one more turn. Growing next turn makes sense, though, because then we can run 8 merchants while still growing slowly. I wouldn't draft any smelly French Muskateers in Pigs at all.
2. DOn't forget to switch the EPs to Roosy.
3. After we trade Roosy Optics, he may immediately upgrade trirems to caravels and start circumnavigating. He can't beat us though, because Churchill won't trade maps and no one has access to our east coast. Trade for his maps occasionally. Lucky you! You get to hear that cool circumnavigation sound...
4. The Pyons spy should cross the border till he can see Lyons the same turn, right?
5. Will we build a drydock somewhere?
6. I'm okay on IW in Siberia.
Those are final costs for each city, for each tech, at 1.16% spending percentage. That's what bbp asked for. The differences are the same no matter how you formulate the procedure, right?
It just wasn't clear to me where the numbers came from in your table. You showed the tech cost and the cost after the 1.5 factor. Then you showed some numbers in columns for each city but I was not easily able to see how you got said numbers. It appears that you left off the factors other than the 1.5 factor and just showed the final answer. Just a quick check:
Guilds: 1560 * 1.5 * 0.6 (religion) * 0.8 (trade routes) * 0.5 (culture) * 0.5. (stationary spy) 1.16 (epp differential, which should go down quite a bit, I assume) = 326
OK. So I assume that Guilds would be a candiate to steal in Hangzhou since it would only cost an extra 72 epp. With that said, we often go out of our way to squeeze an extra handfull of beakers out of our cities. Wouldn't we want to do the same with epp? 72 won't make or break us, but it's something.
This appears to be an argument for spreading Confucianism to our cities, not an argument specific to epp stealing. If we're going to spread Confucianism, I would prefer to start with cities that can benefit from Pacificam/OR/happiness, etc. If we decide to steal from Hang 2W, of course it makes sense to spread it there. But if we had a choice, I would prefer to use that missionary somewhere else... or not build it at all if there is something more important to build.
I was not able to confirm this in my testing. Was my test game flawed? Did you see this behavior yourself or did you read about it? I can't figure out why I'm not seeing this.
Also, I gave myself 6 GSpies and used them all to infiltrate Roosy. The effect was to increase the chances of success from 78% to 80%, so I don't think this has a major impact on my testing.
You're right. It's the successful spies that teleport back to Moscow.
So if a spy fails, we're out the 40 hammers needed to build him. If we're hammer limited, it makes sense to optimize our chances of success (notice that I didn't say maximize because at some point, it doesn't make sense to do something that only increases our odds by 1%, for example.) If we're epp limited, it makes sense to minimize our epp costs.
So the real question is, are we currently more epp limited or hammer limited? That should lead us to our answer, I think.
As another point, keep in mind that we'll have to hold both Kam 2S and Hang 2W for a turn to get the 50% culture reduction if we plan to steal techs from there, which won't come for free...
BTW, is it just me are do these Christmas colors mess with your eyes...
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goodjob: to you). If we're going to build the Intel Agency now, I'd switch to Bureau now and get it done 1t faster.
