SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

Plus I bet you can have multiple spies in the city space you place to settle, all getting the 50% discount without risk of capture because you gift the city the same turn that you steal the techs. You could steal multiple techs as well.

You would need a 2nd confu missionary for the Mao city if you raze DeG but that and 2nd settler is probably worth it for the advantage of not getting caught or starving Moscow.

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

I just ran a test
Put 5 spies down SSE of Moscow, settler, confu missionary waited 5 turns, settled the city, spread the religion, all spies got the -50% for stationary spy, but ~800 ep wasn't enough to steal Nationalism
I didn't get any cultural discount (do you need open borders for this?)

Nationalism without the cultural discount would cost ~1200 :espionage:

Mitchum · Nov 28, 2010

Wait one turn to see if you get the culture factor discount.

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

Mitchum said:
What does this do to the cost of stealing the tech on T0 vs T1 since culture is part of the equation?

Nothing. We lose our plot culture but not our city culture. City culture is used for the cultural discount. Plot culture is used to decide who controls each non-city tile.

bcool said:
Plus I bet you can have multiple spies in the city space you place to settle, all getting the 50% discount without risk of capture because you gift the city the same turn that you steal the techs. You could steal multiple techs as well.

Yes, but then you need several, because as soon as you have two or more spies in a city the risk of getting caught goes up and mission failure becomes more likely. Notice in your test example the odds of mission success for religion change (or whatever). Then move all but one spy out of the city and check the odds again. It goes up from something like 67% to 85% (different for different types of missions).

If we had 10 spies and wanted to guarantee it in 1t, this is the way to do it. As it is, we're smarter to just risk it with one spy, imo.

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

bcool said:
I didn't get any cultural discount (do you need open borders for this?)

How much culture did you put into St Pete before gifting it to dG? (My guess is none. That is, you settled it and then gifted it the same turn, right?)

We would not do it this way anyway. It's an interesting test, but we would grow it to pop2 using the rice, as mdy suggested. That takes the same 5 turns the spy has to be there, so why not?

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

Fascinating only the culture you put into the city before you gift it seems to be factored in. So you need to have owned the city for 1 turn before gifting it away.

Well you could make a spy in Moscow and get a spy down to the spot at least a few turns earlier than the settler and workers can clear it. That gives you the discount earlier, so if it helps with timing there is that option.
Also we would only need to keep the city 1 turn instead of paying the extra maintenance for 5 turns. Maintenance on that city is... right now in test game city maintenance is 68 and inflation is 44 after settling that city on T164 city maintenance goes up to 76 and inflation to 47. So that city costs us 11 gold per turn.
~~Edit: but it would produce ~11 gold/science per turn. Runs merchant specialist for 3 & 3~~
Edit: Doh! can't run merchant specialist must be working the rice! so only produces 5 gold/science from trade routes and 1 commerce for city tile.

The spy could wait before it is settled racking up the espionage discount either way.

Then you could avoid starving (or at least run 1 more specialists than you could otherwise) during a very nice time to run specialists (GA and pacifism). Gives us a GP from Moscow. And 1 scientist in Moscow produces 18 science per turn. Over 5 turns that is 90 science.

Cost is another settler and confu missionary to settle new city for Mao.
one small benefit there is no chance for the spy to be caught in DeG city or in Mao's.

Since we settle it with the spy waiting there already for 4 turns.
Keep the city 1 turn
Next turn gift the city, use the spy to steal the tech at 50% discount for stationary spy
use musketman with guerilla II to raze city that turn.

Make a 2nd settler, confu missionary (~75 hammers/food for Settler since we get a 50% hammer bonus on them and 40 hammers for confu missionary)

So benefit of not growing to 2 pop and instead settling/razing is
1) better timing
2) 90 :science:

, 45

in a useful place, + 24 :gold:

/

(from extra maintenance - commerce produced)
3) no risk of spies getting caught while waiting.
edit: 4) more flexible if we run into difficulties getting Mao down to 3 cities.
Cost is
~115 hammers for 2nd settler and confu missionary.

babybluepants · Nov 28, 2010

Interesting! :thumbsup:

A lot can happen while I get drunk and sleep it off...

How would all this affect our ability to reseach the Lib path in the short term? I figure we could get the base research done by T174 as per previous plan.

Spoiler :

Haven't thought anything through, just thinking out loud (keep in mind I'm badly hung over

)...

I love Nationhood for midgame conquest. Thought about it some and discarded it because I figured we wouldn't wanna give up Bureau here. Forgot all about the espionage bonus, though - that changes things. How much ep do we need to steal everything we want to steal? How many turns under Nationhood could that be? We have cheap theatres and plan on getting Drama this turn. Bermuda could have Forge+Barracks+GT by roughly T178-9, GP Farm probably later. Could we ever do something like:
1) Research Lib-Bio
2) Steal Communism
3) Research/steal Nat by T179 - switch to Nationhood with State Prop, turn off research - accumulate ep, draft for 10+ turns getting 10+ muskets from GT + some elsewhere (probably enough for the entire conquest), switch back in Taj GA when enough ep for all steals. We don't necessarily need 100% espionage this entire period. If we're saving gold, the loss from Bureau is relatively negligible (currently save 20gpt from Civic Upkeep, lose about 35gpt from not running Bureau under GA @ 0%). The problem is slowing down Steel+Econ, which we might want quickly after. Basically, it would work if we weren't in a huge rush to get techs past Comm-Bio.

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

That's an interesting analysis, bcool. Keep it up, along with the novel ideas! :goodjob:

In this case, to me the most important costs have to do with anything that might interfere with the Mao Campaign, since we're way behind on that. That means anything that interferes with Moscow building trebs. That would be the need for another Confucian Missionary under Pacifism. That treb might be worth 50*90 :science:

if it means we finish 1t sooner. Seriously. As it is, our treb production is borderline. If we have a series of bad RNG rolls, we're seriously deficient for Guangzhou.

Here is a list of items I would add to your benefit/cost list:

1. We only need the rice for 4t. Multiply your financial benefits by four-fifths.
2. We plan to use Moscow-2S1SE for Churchill and Stalin too. So either you pay 20f now or pay 3*~115h.
3. We can only build Confu Misses in Moscow after Pacifism. Add -1 treb to your costs.
4. We don't have unlimited production of settlers. Add -1*3(AIs) settlers to your post-Communism REX-plan costs.
5. We already have a spy available, so there is no "better timing" benefit to your idea.

Your point is well taken, bcool. Moscow will produce a lot more beakers as soon as we get Biology, and really take off when we get Sushi...

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xpost with bbp

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bcool · Nov 28, 2010

GA BENEFIT:

Spoiler :

Earnings = 450g (Mao capture) + 100g (Roos beg)

I think we have ~70 gold from Moai next turn too.
Do we want to demand gold tribute from Gandhi (or others) if he has gold? is there a different formula for that?

Spoiler :

I think that is about right, underestimate if anything because we will be growing during the GA too. (unless you factored that in already my estimate was 58c this turn I think and you have 77c 3 turns later)

Not sure if we need those muskets from aggressive drafting a Globe Theater city to finish the conquest of Mao at least, maybe for Churchill/Rosey.

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

1. We only need the rice for 4t. Multiply your financial benefits by four-fifths.

ok 18 less research, 9 less gpp, but I only counted the financial costs for 4 turns

2. We plan to use Moscow-2S1SE for Churchill and Stalin too. So either you pay 20f now or pay 3*~115h.

ah that is a big one, my argument has be crushed by this.

3. We can only build Confu Misses in Moscow after Pacifism. Add -1 treb to your costs.

That can and should be fixed I think (where else on the mainland could we build one?)

4. We don't have unlimited production of settlers. Add -1*3(AIs) settlers to your post-Communism REX-plan costs.

yes well this is just more of the big nail of #2

5. We already have a spy available, so there is no "better timing" benefit to your idea.

Well she isn't very close now is she? I thought she was more than 2 turns away.

If the timing was super tight my idea might have merit. We probably could use the stationary spy in the place of Rosey future steal-from-city-site though.

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

In this case, to me the most important costs have to do with anything that might interfere with the Mao Campaign, since we're way behind on that. That means anything that interferes with Moscow building trebs. That would be the need for another Confucian Missionary under Pacifism. That treb might be worth 50*90 if it means we finish 1t sooner. Seriously. As it is, our treb production is borderline. If we have a series of bad RNG rolls, we're seriously deficient for Guangzhou.

If this is the case I would take a closer look at your plan for Paris. The galley chain is the weak link in the war effort in my opinion. You can look at getting 2 galleys from Paris in 3 turns (and build the buddhist monastery afterwards). Or you can look into rebuilding a fort for Paris on the SSW Grass Hill and getting another galley from there.

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

bcool, would you please draw me a map of how you envision using the galleys to speed up our Mao Campaign? I've looked at it and didn't see how 1 more galley would help and I'm not sure how 2 more would help either. So I'd apprecite your feedback on this.

The reason I don't see 1 more galley helping is that the key point, as I see it, is moving to 1 tile past Beijing. The way I see it, one more galley speeds up our movement to Beijing, but it doesn't change our movement to 1 tile past, if you see what I mean.

I agree that we want to cotinue building galleys, of course, especially if we plan to go down on Roosy soon, but for CHurchill too, and even Gandhi. We just need them.

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

What program or option do you use to make your maps for war plans?

And what program do you guys use that gets predictions for commerce etc. Things that start code: for example?

If you point me in the right direction I should be able to discuss my galley chain issues more clearly.

In the mean time, basically I played the test game and found it difficult to keep pace with Moscows production of trebs (getting the 2 treb to the front lines and reseting to get the next 2 treb to the front lines etc.)

edit: I think I found it, strategy layer

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

I make a screenshot of the section of the map I want to work with. Then I use MSpaint to draw on it. Then I crop it (not necessary actually) using Micrsoft Office Picture Manager. NOthing special, really.

Edit: If you're just talking about getting the units across to the Paris side of the water, then I understand what you're talking about. I thought maybe you were talking about transport them closer to Beijing before disembarking.

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

It will take awhile to explain but I can get the 1 whipped musket and 3 Treb to Shanghai ready to move on T169 if you can do that I don't need to try.
edit: and the next two treb from Moscow there on T170

edit#2: after the musket and treb board EEES of Fish, I have the other treb walk to 1SE of Paris where the 2 galleys I whipped there wait for them.

edit#3: getting the galley chain past Beijing would require forts I believe (would probably be worth the ~18+ worker turns needed) (But those forts would require our culture to use as ports)

I had to track each galley each turn. Let me know if you want 7 screenshots with diagrams, because I don't know how to explain it clearly without a picture each turn.

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

I'll let you know if I need it.

Okay, using another galley from Paris, I can see how you're doing that. If you check it out, you can see what I'm saying, I think. Having the units in Shanghai on T168, ready to move on T169 is the same as 2tiles short of Shanghai on T168 and able to move through Shanghai to the next tile on T169 (because of Mao's culture limiting our units to 1-tile movements). Same with the units on T170.

So I'm not seeing the actual benefit of the extra galley. Does that make sense?
.

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

Sure, use the roads :lol:

Oh well, I make things complicated.

You will want those 2 galleys though if you plan to fort through to Beijing. And I think you will need them sooner than you can build them after the monastery.

You could consider 1 pop whipping the galley, then 2 pop whipping the next galley T166 and at least get overflow with organized religion benefits into the monastery. But that probably isn't the best plan...

bcool · Nov 28, 2010

I'm think I'm done coming up with half-cocked and/or bad ideas. If you can synthesize the new ideas I assume you could play today LC.

I assume a steal of Nationalism and a 2-pop foreign-tech-emporium city is in the new plan.
You think a dip into Nationhood is on the table?
And are you going to immediately start the Taj Mahal somewhere when it is possible?

LowtherCastle · Nov 28, 2010

bcool said:
I'm think I'm done coming up with half-cocked and/or bad ideas.

I didn't notice any of those, guess I missed them...

To me every idea is good, because you never know when they might help us, now or later. Or lead to a line of thinking that can lead to something good. I hope you were kind of joking with this remark.

bcool said:
If you can synthesize the new ideas I assume you could play today LC.

I assume a steal of Nationalism and a 2-pop foreign-tech-emporium city is in the new plan.
You think a dip into Nationhood is on the table?
And are you going to immediately start the Taj Mahal somewhere when it is possible?

Well, if we're going to go the Steal Nationalism route, I think it's important that everyone agree, because it involves some risk. We'll be putting EPs into dG instead of Mao and if our spy fails, that may set us back on Communism. Then again, it may not, since we don't know how soon we'll ahve Mao down to 3 cities. We're in a stong position, imo, as it is, so we don't necessarily need to take such risks.

That said, our distance costs are only something like 27gpt + inflation, so delaying SP at this point isn't killer. This shouldn't impact our Biology slingshot either, so that's okay.

I think I won't play till tomorrow morning in any case. BUt if we go for Nationalism, the of course, we also switch to Nationhood for 5t to make up for the re-directed EPs.

As for Taj Mahal, I hadn't thought about it. Any ideas about where to build it? Not sure there's a big hurry because a second GA only takes 2 GPs anyway.

babybluepants · Nov 28, 2010

Well, the risk is slowing down Lib-Comm-Bio, isn't it? I don't think we'll lose the Lib race at this point, but we do potentially lose quite a bit of income by delaying those techs.

I def. wouldn't build Taj in Moscow, so we can keep spamming units primarily. I doubt we'll be in a huge rush to complete it in a few turns, so one of the island cities maybe?

SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

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