SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Generally I prefer to go for Sids Shusi before mining corps on the general principle that food is normally more powerful than hammers. It looks like we can get it quicker than mining crop as well. Additioanlly we would need to steal steam power from Churchill, and this should be cheaper once we are able to gift him St Nicks. This would also mean we would not have to be quite as quick to steal Rooservelts techs, so we could get more of the espionage from our buildings, allowing the slider to be used for beakers instead.

I would switch all our specialists in pigs to merchants immediately to minimise our chances of the RNG screwing us.

Cannons are more efficient than trebs, but trebs are perfectly adequate pre gunpowder-especially as none of his core cities are on hills. Churchill is backwards there is no chance of him getting it before we crush him. In the circumstances I think that opening up Sids quicker will be more powerful than allowing our conquest of Churchill to proceed marginally faster. There is even an outside chance that Rooservelt might research steel for us if we go for Sids first.
 
If this is true why do we need to research steel before medicine?
Steel first gives us much better synergy, imo. We're simply not ready for Sushi yet. We'll barely have stolen Banking by then, if at all. No banks built, to say nothing of Wall Street. Moscow will still be going full bore building units, so we won't want it to deviate to start spamming executives. The Kremlin won't be finished yet. We won't have stolen any of Roosy's banks.

I don't agree with bbp's numbers on how many units we need, btw. I think 10 trebs plus a few stragglers is likely to be enough for Churchill. Then 10 cannons ought to be enough for Roosy. (Best-case scenario, let's say.) In other words, Moscow needs to build units for another 20 turns, then it's free to spam executives. As you know, warring and Pacifism don't mix. Our units costs are going to continue to skyrocket. We want to hit the planet like a hurricane and get it over with.

Without all the proper preparations, Sushi can break us.
 
(edit: we could upgrade the trebs to cannons for Rosey war)
In general, upgrading on this map is terrible for us, because we're commerce poor. We have no cottages. We're begging orphans when it comes to cash. The AIs have been financing all our reserach for the last 20t. They'll probably finance most of it for the next twenty turns too. (And now we're talking about killing them off... :crazyeye:) We paid 2*110g to upgrade 2 swords to maces. A mace costs us 43g to build in Moscow. So we lost 67g per upgrade. :eek:

I thought loooooooong and haaaaaard before I upgraded those two swords, and I'm glad I did, because I was down to the last unit when I captured Beijing. We would consider upgrading CRIII maces to grenadiers for only one reason: grenadiers can't self-promote to CRI/II/III, and grens with those promotions are KILLER. Pure devastation.
 
LowtherCastle said:
Steel first gives us much better synergy, imo. We're simply not ready for Sushi yet. We'll barely have stolen Banking by then, if at all. No banks built, to say nothing of Wall Street. Moscow will still be going full bore building units, so we won't want it to deviate to start spamming executives. The Kremlin won't be finished yet. We won't have stolen any of Roosy's banks.
That's pretty much what I was thinking.

LowtherCastle said:
I don't agree with bbp's numbers on how many units we need, btw. I think 10 trebs plus a few stragglers is likely to be enough for Churchill. Then 10 cannons ought to be enough for Roosy. (Best-case scenario, let's say.) In other words, Moscow needs to build units for another 20 turns, then it's free to spam executives. As you know, warring and Pacifism don't mix. Our units costs are going to continue to skyrocket. We want to hit the planet like a hurricane and get it over with.
I wasn't suggesting we wait 20t to have 40+50 units for Churchill, just saying that's what our full build-up might look like, to take down all AIs. Hard to exactly predict, but I think that's about what we'll need. Yes, ideally Moscow's done with unit spam in circa 20t.

LowtherCastle said:
6. For what it's worth, the Kremlin is far and away the most overpowered Wonder in CIV, imo. Combine it with Sushi and Cristo Redentor, then close your eyes and rocket to the stars.
That's what I would think, yes. How much do we need to rush it, though? It's useful as of Sushi, I suppose.

LowtherCastle said:
The Million Dollar question is: Where to put Wall Street? Because we need to plan that asap. Fish? Paris? Fish surely has more hammer production and a forge. I think the goal is Wall Street asap, right? The problem is, we're using Fish for warpreps. If we're going to build Wall Street in Fish, then I think we need to grow it non-stop working all our farms from now on, while building units a little slower. And no drafting in Fish!
Agree with no drafting there. We overdid the whip, IMO. It really needs to start working all its hammers. Wall Street city needs Market-Grocer-Bank-WS. That's a lot of hammers. I don't think spreading Buddhism for cash is very efficient (I've heard a few great players argue against this and I believe it), esp. as it's not even our religion. So, Paris isn't necessary. I'd actually be ok with building it anywhere that has the production (for examples, Bahamas) or in Fish (if we can be comfortable with unit numbers on schedule).

Edit: xpost
 
Unit production after setup:
Moscow can do treb/cannon per turn
Fish can have 30/41hpt towards Maces (2t) or Cannons (3t)
Bahamas can probably do siege per 2t
GP Farm can draft a musket per turn (after 6-7t?)
11-12 other mainland cities can draft a unit
Anything else?

Current: 16 Trebs, 2 Catapults, 10 Maces, 2 Muskets, 1 Pike, 2 Axes

T+19 built: 12 Muskets (GP) + 12 Muskets (other) + 19 siege (Moscow) + 4 Maces (Fish) + 4-5 siege (Fish) + 6-7 siege (Bahamas) = 28 conventional + 30 siege = total of approx. 40 conventional + 50 siege

Unless the RNG totally screws us this will be far more than we actually need, even by my normally cautious standards. We can easily afford to temporairily allow some of these cities to build infastructure for a few turns (maybe we can even afford an intelligence agency in the capital.)

Without all the proper preparations, Sushi can break us.
Shushi won't break us. Amongst cities with courthouses the city with the highest maintenance with Shushi's is Siberia with a cost of -15 gold/turn. If we build a market in fish and found the corp there we will get +5 gold/turn immediately without a grocer/bank/WS. We currently get +8 food per turn, this can be used to run 4 extra merchants. Even if there is no market in the city we will then be getting +12 gpt. In total the corp would therefore give us +2gpt in addition to the benefits of the beakers/GPP. As long as we build courthouses before spreading the corp we will easily make a healthy profit.
 
Okay, I'm okay with steel first, but it would interesting to compare medicine first vs steel first with a test game :mischief:

Okay, the Shrine.
Right now I'm leaning towards the shrine. Especially if we plan to build Wallstreet there. The Shrine will auto spread Confu to nearby cities like the ice balls even if we don't actively spread it ourselves. Plus a confu missionary later in the game is a cheap way to give a city +1 :)

I don't know how many turns we have left. Maybe 72? Here is an estimate of the value of the shrine
12 * 20 :gold:
12 * 30 :gold: bank
12 * 50 :gold: bank + wallstreet
12 * 60 :gold: bank + wallstreet + market + grocer
12 * 100 :gold: (because confu spread)
12 * 120 :gold: (more auto spread)
+ maybe 3 confu spreads that we wanted (and didn't have to build a missionary for)
120 :hammers:

4560 :gold: and 120 :hammers:

Maybe more chance of a great prophet later (and ability to run 3 priests in Fish)

Now if this means we don't get a 5th or 6th GA then the priest represents maybe 1/4 of the total value of that GA. How much is that worth? A ton? So much it doesn't make sense to try and estimate it?

How likely is it that we would need the GP for that GA? Will we have enough GP production for our 5th or 6th GA if we don't use GP for anything else?

Can we estimate total GP production?
 
Shushi won't break us. Amongst cities with courthouses the city with the highest maintenance with Shushi's is Siberia with a cost of -15 gold/turn. If we build a market in fish and found the corp there we will get +5 gold/turn immediately without a grocer/bank/WS. We currently get +8 food per turn, this can be used to run 4 extra merchants. Even if there is no market in the city we will then be getting +12 gpt. In total the corp would therefore give us +2gpt in addition to the benefits of the beakers/GPP. As long as we build courthouses before spreading the corp we will easily make a healthy profit.

LC might be right.

The +8 food doesn't translate into 4 merchants immediately. We could stop running 2 +4 food farms which would give us 2 merchants immediately. Or maybe stop running workshops, but that cuts valuable production. It would ramp up quickly admittedly but there would be a bit of a delay before it is profitable.

Plus we have to factor in getting the corp executive produced and the cost of spreading it ~80 gold?
If we only have a 2 :gold: profit then it would take a long time before we recover the 80 :gold: cost of spreading it and the hammers to produce the executive.

That would be offset by the extra research and gpp of the specialists but it would slow us down a bit rather than immediately accelerate us.
 
Unless the RNG totally screws us this will be far more than we actually need, even by my normally cautious standards. We can easily afford to temporairily allow some of these cities to build infastructure for a few turns (maybe we can even afford an intelligence agency in the capital.)

We definitely do want to build a courthouse in Moscow at the very least. I guess we can do that the turn or 2 before the first corporation gets spread there if the siege unit production continues non-stop.
 
I wasn't suggesting we wait 20t to have 40+50 units for Churchill, just saying that's what our full build-up might look like, to take down all AIs. Hard to exactly predict, but I think that's about what we'll need. Yes, ideally Moscow's done with unit spam in circa 20t.
I get it. Okay, you're right, it's hard to know how many we'll end up building and it may be more. I kind of doubt Moscow will stop cold in 20t. I'm not even sure we'll have Sushi by then... ;)

I'm okay on making the Shrine, I guess. But then I'd be inclined to focus Fish on growing and building market-grocer-bank. Let Moscow make the siege and later GP draft the muskets, along with a few other well-chosen drafts perhaps, to speed it up.

COuple other small but important points I noticed while studying the map:

1. CRITICAL: Build that road and get the musket back inside Shanghai!!! The horse archer completing in Nanjing could easilly capture Shanghai... :eek:
2. I already mentioned the Kremlin in Beijing. I'd just start with a library, since it's cheap and we'll be running specialists there. Also I'd improve the tiles with hammers in mind. Obviously scrub and farm the corn first, also get the two grass tiles workshopped asap. More important than anything else in Shanghai right now, but the workers will need escorts because of those damn horse archers.
3. Plus, of course, we'll need another ice ball for Mao quite soon...lots of settlers.
 
I'm okay on making the Shrine, I guess. But then I'd be inclined to focus Fish on growing and building market-grocer-bank. Let Moscow make the siege and later GP draft the muskets, along with a few other well-chosen drafts perhaps, to speed it up.

Paris might be able to build a few siege units after a barracks to take up the slack.

Guys, I wanted to do my analysis first. I try to get the test save updated tomorrow morning.

:gripe: jk (I know how painful it is)
 
Do we really need to raze Hangzhou? If we can get Roosevelt to keep Chengdu (or capture it and gift it to him ourselves), then we can leave Hangzhou in place. We should tell Roosevelt to attack Chengdu every turn.

Edit: Now that Roosevelt has Xian, he may not even need Chengdu to take Hangzhou. I don't have access to the game right now...
 
OK, I just ran a quick test. Xian doesn't reach, but Roosevelt will take Chengdu and Hangzhou. If we go that route, we'll need two settlers (2S of Kamchatka and Trojan City) and one missionary.

We need to have the spy(s) stationary for 5 turns before the gift if we want to steal on the turn we gift Trojan City.
We need to settle Trojan City (but not the other one) on T-1 for the 50% culture reduction.

Here are the factors:

State Religion: -40%
Trade Routes: -20% (we lose this if we don't have OB with Roosy)
Culture: -50% (if Roosy builds any culture buildings we'll want to destroy them if this starts to drop too much)
Stationary Spy: -50% (-10%/turn)
Distance: +12%
EPP Differential: +16% (current level but this should go down as we start generating more epp)

Does anyone know if the EPP Differential is based on current unspent epp or is it total epp generated the whole game? If no one knows, I'll test it in the morning if I have a chance.
 
Outstanding Questions
  • Great Prophet usage / Golden Age plan
    I really need a consensus of some sort here. It has to do with Taj fail-cash, research and production speed over the next 5-6t, etc.
  • Somewhat related: are we building WS in Fish. In that case, I'd look to slow down unit production for gold multipliers. Maybe need siege elsewhere then.
  • No one really stated a strong opinion on IW. I'm not so sure I buy the Hammer City at this point. It'll take quite some time to set up.
  • National Park in Siberia? bcool likes it, no one else seems to have an opinion. I'm cool with it, since it's the only mature city with any forests left. We could probably use Siberia to build some of the requisite settlers, but if we're building NP there, I'd wanna get going on it soon.
 
Do we really need to raze Hangzhou? If we can get Roosevelt to keep Chengdu (or capture it and gift it to him ourselves), then we can leave Hangzhou in place. We should tell Roosevelt to attack Chengdu every turn.
You're absolutely right that we could do it that way. That was my original plan. There are two reasons it's better to do it the other way, imo.

Reason #1. Capturing and holding New York.
Take a look at the map and think about what Roosy might do after we capture New York, if he has units in Washington, Philadelphia, Xian, and Chengdu! Now bbp could send one of our units to Roosy Land after we capture Guanzhou, but AIs tend to like to stack their armies in newly captured cities (Xian) or their city closest to the enemy (Chengdu) that is often under cultural pressure, or both.

We'll have a relatively small army--our current maces plus leftover trebs plus ~10 new cannons. No time to build lots of defenders, so we don't want to have Roosy behind and in front of us. Furthermore, we'd have to defend New York and Guangzhou and even Beijing.

Note that we'll want to capture New York first because we'll be suffering major war weariness from a long campaign against Chruchill and New York has the Statue of Zeus (+100% war weariness).

Reason #2. Stealing multiple techs from Roosy fast.
We'll want to steal 4, if not 5 techs from Roosy very quickly, assuming Gandhi doesn't research one or more of them in the meantime: Guilds+Banking+Constitution+Economics+(Corporation)

The odds of our tech-stealing spy mission failing go up significantly as soon as we stack more than one spy in the target city, which means we only want to station one there at a time. But that means we can only steal 1 tech per city every 6 turns, because it takes 6 turns to put a new spy in there and have him be stationary for 5 turns. So if we use only Trojan City, it will take us 18t to steal 4 techs, 24t to steal 5 techs. Too slow. To compound matters, chances are at least one of those missions will fail anyway... :sad:

Now, if we have three such cities, we'll pay somewhat more in distance costs, of course, so we attempt to steal the cheapest techs farthest away, to minimize that damage, but we can steal as many as 3 techs on T0 and hopefully the other two on T+6.

So what we really need is:
  1. T-6: Three spies stationed
  2. T-1: Cities settled at least 1t before T0 (for the culture -50%)
  3. T+0: Confucianism spread
  4. T+0: One more spy stationed right outside each city with 1 movement available
Does anyone know if the EPP Differential is based on current unspent epp or is it total epp generated the whole game?
Total epp generated the whole game against all AIs. This is well known and well reported in strategy articles. No need to test it.

Edit: Mitchum, you might ask, why not just gift him Hangzhou and use that as one of the cities to steal tech from? That would work too, true. But a a higher cost, because it already has Buddhism in it, unfortunately, Roosy's religion. For T0, that's an immediate -15% we lose. That's not killer, but then if we want to steal another tech 6t later, then he has now put 6t of culture in there and our culture -50% has dropped significantly, depending on how long we owned it before gifting it in the first place.

-50% * YourCC/(TheirCC+YourCC)

So, -50% * 3/(3+6) = -16% if we own it for 1t.
2t: -50%*6/(6+6) = -25%
3t: -50%*9/(9+6) = -30%
etc.

EDIT2: Our odds of failing the steal tech mission against Roosy right now: 19% :eek:
With 2 or more spies on the same city tile, our odds of failing the tech steal for each spy increase to 38% :eek::eek::eek:

That won't improve much by the time we steal the techs because Roosy has spent so much already and is spending tons still with all his multipliers. In fact, we should do a counter-espionage mission on him asap, and then every 10t thereafter forever.
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National Park in Siberia? bcool likes it, no one else seems to have an opinion. I'm cool with it, since it's the only mature city with any forests left. We could probably use Siberia to build some of the requisite settlers, but if we're building NP there, I'd wanna get going on it soon.

The site LC marked to the wesy oc Crabs might be better, it has 6 forests instead of 3. As we are close to corps we can probably get it up and running fairly quickly.

Somewhat related: are we building WS in Fish. In that case, I'd look to slow down unit production for gold multipliers. Maybe need siege elsewhere then.

Once we have the Globe theatre in GP farm and have guilds we can build 1 mace and draft 2 muskets every turn. This should be more than enough non siege production, freeing up other cities to build infrastructure. 1 Treb/turn should also be enough to keep the advance against Churchill going. The capital can build most of these, and when we build infrastructure there we can temporarily farm siege production out to other cities. (We could use a courthouse, and late an intelligence agency there.)

No one really stated a strong opinion on IW. I'm not so sure I buy the Hammer City at this point. It'll take quite some time to set up.

The only other viable alternative to hammer city that I can see is to put the Ironworks in Siberia. With a Levee+workshops it could become quite a strong ironworks city.

I really need a consensus of some sort here. It has to do with Taj fail-cash, research and production speed over the next 5-6t, etc.

I think the next golden age should come from the Taj, it means that we get any failed gold earlier and allows us to use the GP for a shrine which should pay off very well in the long run.
 
Great Prophet usage / Golden Age plan
I really need a consensus of some sort here. It has to do with Taj fail-cash, research and production speed over the next 5-6t, etc.

mdy likes it, LC is okay with it, I'm okay with it (but really wanted us to predict our GP production to see how much this will reduce the possibility of later GA), Mitchum prefers to save the GPro .

Somewhat related: are we building WS in Fish. In that case, I'd look to slow down unit production for gold multipliers. Maybe need siege elsewhere then.

LC thinks we should build WS here regardless. I think we want WS asap so I agree we want WS here regardless of the confu shrine since we can build it earlier. How much earlier could we build it? I'm not sure maybe it would help our decision if we found out. But if we build the Confu Shrine it is a no brainer to put WS here.

No one really stated a strong opinion on IW. I'm not so sure I buy the Hammer City at this point. It'll take quite some time to set up.

I like Hammer city since I like Siberia for National Park. I think it would grow quickly if we focused on it. (getting Sushi and Mining Inc there as a priority for example). And again it would be easier to make this argument if we estimated how fast we could get it to grow.

National Park in Siberia? bcool likes it, no one else seems to have an opinion. I'm cool with it, since it's the only mature city with any forests left. We could probably use Siberia to build some of the requisite settlers, but if we're building NP there, I'd wanna get going on it soon.
Siberia can have 2 forest perserves immediately (deer + 1 fur) 3 if we can get fur somewhere else or after fur goes obsolete. And it could have 5 tiles adj to those forest perserves where a forest could grow. 4 of those adj tiles do not have roads. In my experience we will get at least 1, probably 2, maybe 3 of those forests to grow.
Siberia could have the NP 20+ turns before anything on Crab Island. Even only 2 extra specialists for 20 turns is better than a potential of 6 specialists. Those extra specialists in Siberia would go up to 3 when fur obsoletes and as high as 7 if the forest regrow.
Siberia already has some gpp, and would be more capable of accelerating that gpp production above and beyond what it gets from the NP specialists. So Siberia would produce at least 1 more GP than any NP city on Crab Island could.

Reason #2. Stealing multiple techs from Roosy fast.
We'll want to steal 4, if not 5 techs from Roosy very quickly, assuming Gandhi doesn't research one or more of them in the meantime: Guilds+Banking+Constitution+Economics+(Corporation )

I think it makes sense to put a spy in each chain city and 6 spies in the Trojan city so we can steal all the techs in 1 turn. The cost of missing out on the benefits of Corporation is worth more than losing a few additional spies to failure or getting caught just standing there.
That is if it is possible to produce and transport that many spies in time. (And produce the ep points --maybe we will get a great spy though :) )
edit: just to clarify (I mean the tech Corporation and the additional trade route per city we get from it)
 
Okay, I've done all the necessary homework to create the test save. Now I'd just like to verify that this is the right save for me to use.

Anyone know if it's the latest test save?
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@LC

Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but in the test game, I had 5 spies stationary for 5 turns in Galley City. I gifted the city to Roosy. The chance of success for each spy was 78%, whether there were 5, 4, 3, 2 or 1 spies in the city on the turn I tried to steal the tech. In addition, a failure did nothing to our diplo situation with Roosy for having a spy caught. Why is my testing not matching the expected increased failure rate?

The distance factors for each city are:

Trojan City: 1.12
Kamchatka 2S: 1.22
Hangzhou 2W: 1.34

Even if the failure rate does go up with more spies (which I couldn't prove with my testing), who cares? We just build 10 spies and have them all in Trojan City. Failure causes no negative consequences that I could see. We steal all techs at the reduced distance factor. If one fails, we still have 9 more ready to go. We also have fewer Confucian missionaries to build and easier logistics in getting our spies in place.

BTW, stealing techs is not like tech trading. We can steal a pre-requisite and then the following techs down the line on the same turn. I did not know this before the test, although it sounds like most of you already did.
 
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