SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[Andronicus]

We also have to set our sights on war, I think we can go to war in the turnset after turn 50. I expect 3-4 spears in a town in Japan after they have been at war for a few turns. Ten swords or even 8 could do it. We need to build 2 workers, at least two dromons, and the 8 more swords= 22 turns, less if we find money to upgrade the regular warrior mps. The sooner to war the better.

Agree with war soon. ? whom, maybe Aztecs first?
Are Aztecs still building Oracle?
Might it be worth giving then MM as soon as we can get it in hope they switch to GLH if they miss oracle - on pelago map GLH never goes astray.
Alternative of giving them maths might give them SoZ before we are ready to collect it from them (but if their AC are busy knocking down Japan whilst we dow - no rop rape - SoZ could be ours before facing any AC).
I note Aztecs have horses connected ? any sign of iron.


edit re Indian research
my experience is that India values poly vhighly and will likely research that before construction

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I can think of 3 options now:

A) Pay for math, get currency free. research literature. GPT will increase India research. We trade math for other techs, we use other techs to get back some gpt. We need 22-26 turns to research Lit depending on how much of our gpt we get back.

B) Take Lit for free, trade with lit, research currency. Spreading lit can increase AI research. We need some 18 turns to research currency.

C) Pay for math, get currency free. stop research, sit and wait, then trade for construction.

In all situations, we must hope that it will be possible to trade currency for construction. This pretty much means the AI must get construction first. If they research currency first and spread it to everyone, we may have a problem to get construction.

B is better for our research, we get both techs faster than with A.

A however may offer a chance to have both Literature and Currency available to trade for construction. That however will only work if we can trade Map Making without selling currency. So here, we are talking about a just a chance to avoid a possible problem. (not being able to trade construction).

We need to know how these chances are.
-How big do you estimate the chance that currency will not get us construction?
-How big is the chance that we can get Map Making while keeping our monopoly on currency? (we must do this all in 1 turn i think or we won't get back any gpt at all, is map making even around atm?)

C may be a little gamble. Literacy is an optional tech. By doing this, we could gather some extra cash that undoubtedly can be usefull in the future.
However, i have had games where the AI never researched Literature at all. The reward (400 commerce) is also reduced by 12 commerce every turn it takes the AI longer to research Literature than it would take us. Finally, if currency is not gonna provide us everything we need in trades, we have nothing else to trade with.


So the most important question for me is: Is Map Making available now ?
If it is, and we think we can buy it with Math, option B and C both gain a lot in strength.
If it is not, i think option A beats option B as the chances for B's advantage are now nullified.
If Map Making is not available now, option C means no swords sailing out until we have traded construction from the AI. (Once we have construction, the most expensive tech, we will certainly have acces to all AA techs) If this is acceptable or not, i can not yet say. (when would we want to sail out? , when do we expect the AI te have researched pretty much all of the ancient age?)

 

[WackenOpenAir]

India has nothing special for Poly, if they researched it more often than another civ in your games, that is pure coincidence.

Some relative numbers for how much they like each of the techs available:

Map Making: 71
Code of Laws: 28
Polytheism: 28
Construction: 25
Currency: 18

These numbers vary depending on research speed. They are based on the assumption that they will need 20 turns to research construction. It won't be very different if they are a bit faster though.

Source = http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=45559&pp=40 There used to be an xls file, i can't seem to find it anymore though. I still have it in my documents.

 

[killercane]

Agree with war soon. ? whom, maybe Aztecs first?
Are Aztecs still building Oracle?
Might it be worth giving then MM as soon as we can get it in hope they switch to GLH if they miss oracle - on pelago map GLH never goes astray.
Alternative of giving them maths might give them SoZ before we are ready to collect it from them (but if their AC are busy knocking down Japan whilst we dow - no rop rape - SoZ could be ours before facing any AC).
I note Aztecs have horses connected ? any sign of iron.


edit re Indian research
my experience is that India values poly vhighly and will likely research that before construction

Rome, Korea, and Persia have iron IIRC. Ottomans have already built the Oracle. We can get the Aztecs a golden age to help them build GLH, which is a great idea. This means we give them maps first or math first? We would have to guess which city they would build it in. If they build it in the capital which looks to be the better city, we give them maps first, hopefully they only are building 1 turn units. The other city, Teotihuacan, is smaller and will take forever.

 

[killercane]

War with Japan (they are the ones with no ivory or iron right?). Sign MA with Aztecs, no ROP. Once we kill the Japanese the Aztecs are fair game so no rep hit. Hopefully they finish SoZ or Lighthouse or both and we then declare on them. Their units should be depleted or out of place so we can get them quickly.

 

[killercane]

No mapmaking available now, you can see from the trade options screen above. Some AIs will have had 12 turns to research into mapmaking. It should be available soon I would think.

I dont know how soon they will research out of the AA. India has a river by their capital, and a freshwater lake by their second city, so they can surely achieve 40 beakers or so at some point. That gives them lots of research right now. If we assume, 20 turns for construction for them (counting on them to start on maps at least before they trade it from us or another AI), then we conceivably could be out of the AA at that time. I do not think the other AI will have CoL and Poly at that time though. With 30 civs, some may do CoL quick (Persia I have seen before do this) but their choices are still a mystery. The Ottomans and Sumeria love polytheism to get to Monarchy, but with no government available there I dont know what they will do. If it is hardcoded into the AI it will not matter, they will research it regardless right? I noticed DaveMcW thinks it is hardcoded at the end of this article:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=45559&page=3. In my experience commercial civs value Currency more (Korea always seems to like it) so India may just research Currency themselves.

What adds more science, library or conquering towns? We are in Feudalism so conquering doesnt add as much as if we are in a republic. In size 7 and up cities though, we can add scientists to lit research (or whatever research) to replace the unhappies. Or they can riot while we have free scientists with no starvation. We also get units support from conquering.

I really dont know, the AI is unpredictable. I still think we should take currency and pay the greedy Indian, but lit is not a bad option either. Even if we research Currency, we may still not be in the MA, so we can stop research. If we do research currency we can trade for HBR now or soon. It doesnt matter really when we get to MAs, it matters in finding the scientific civs and at least making a play for the free tech. We are at turn 38 so 20 turns from now we would be 4 turns or so from lit, at 1550 BC. If an AI is in the MA then that is ok, we dont have to be first. 10 turns from then we are at 1300 bc with 300 gold or so in the kitty.

We can also trade spices I suppose with a harbor with India, and maybe gems with Egypt. We can be running 0 lux quite soon, as long as wars do not break our trade routes, which we should be wary of. Im rambling now, we probably need to have some consensus or a noble soul to sum up the discussions.

Edit: After some thinking, the library only adds 10 science (to 39 bpt). Our current configuration at 10% lux (26 commerce-3 for lux= 23) gives 29 science with the 2 scientists. So our return on library investment is actually lower than calculated.

 

[killercane]

I will play tomorrow when everyone gets a chance to weigh in, as what we do is quite important.

My proposed plan is to 1) take currency after paying 16 gpt to India; and 2) burn through our cash reserves (Lit in 22 will give us -8 gpt , I think we have 70 or 80 in the kitty) and keep borrowing $$ from India if they have surplus, and also pick some up from others. 1 gpt for every 16-18 gold, in other words banking with the Bank of India. At the end we will be getting the gold back, via Col, Poly, or even our MA tech if we get that far that fast.

 

[Andronicus]

My proposed plan is to 1) take currency after paying 16 gpt to India; and 2) burn through our cash reserves (Lit in 22 will give us -8 gpt , I think we have 70 or 80 in the kitty) and keep borrowing $$ from India if they have surplus, and also pick some up from others. 1 gpt for every 16-18 gold, in other words banking with the Bank of India. At the end we will be getting the gold back, via Col, Poly, or even our MA tech if we get that far that fast.

Gets my vote
Should also get more loose change as make more contacts and empty their piggy banks into the Byzantine vaults.

 

[Andronicus]

India has nothing special for Poly, if they researched it more often than another civ in your games, that is pure coincidence.

Some relative numbers for how much they like each of the techs available:

Map Making: 71
Code of Laws: 28
Polytheism: 28
Construction: 25
Currency: 18

These numbers vary depending on research speed. They are based on the assumption that they will need 20 turns to research construction. It won't be very different if they are a bit faster though.

Source = http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=45559&pp=40 There used to be an xls file, i can't seem to find it anymore though. I still have it in my documents.

, you're correct, I had read that thread before but forgot about it ... DaveMcW's comment is interesting though

I noticed the Ottoman monarchy beeline too. I think it's hard-coded into the Ottoman AI.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I have had discussions with KC about that plan. He convinced me quite a bit already. It is not my usual playstyle, but my usuall playstyle is very much focused on fast conquest

After his turnset, i think we should take some more time to think about our medium and long term plans. (who conquers who)

 

[Abegweit]

Any thoughts about selling the granary? Do we really need it?

 

[Abegweit]

, you're correct, I had read that thread before but forgot about it ... DaveMcW's comment is interesting though

I noticed the Ottoman monarchy beeline too. I think it's hard-coded into the Ottoman AI.

It will be interesting to see what they do in this game.

 

[Andronicus]

Any thoughts about selling the granary? Do we really need it?

Only if we are not going to produce any more workers

Of course we should get some nice free slaves soon

 

[Abegweit]

Do I take that as a vote for a sale?

 

[WackenOpenAir]

First we should make 2 workers. Then maybe we can sell it.
I am gonna wait 2 turns till i have the save in my hands though before making further plans.

 

[killercane]

Ok playing now.

On the interturn we give 15 gpt and philosophy for mathematics and 6 gold. Previously I was getting the 16 gold Gandi has along with math, but it is cheaper to do it this way. We then take Currency as our free technology.

Turn 9

We are now at 76 gold and burning through at -17 per turn. Lit in 14 turns if we can keep that pace. We meet the Ottomans, Babs, and the Dutch. Babs have 50 gold, and get mysticism from us for that. The Dutch and Osman dont have much to give. Osman lacks writing/math while the Dutch have writing. The Spanish curragh is now in danger, I thought it could get across a bay but it was longer than anticipated or I just cant count right with differential movement.

Turn 10

The curragh survives. Moving the other curraghs. Lit in 13 at -17 gold with 109 in the bank. Pics below. We probably need another curragh up North, maybe around Rome. We have a lot of map yet to explore. Hopefully we scrounge enough gold to keep going on lit quickly. Selling granary is good, we get one turn there. Japan has 16 gold too, so thats another turn. If we count those turns, then 11 turns of research means we need 187 gold or so, or 78 more gold. Surely we can get this somehow. India has turned up research, only has a few extra gold and there is no more in the economy. That might be bad

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/sgotm12/Spooks_SG012_BC2150_01.SAV

 

[killercane]

It looks like there are several civs with no iron, iron working has been out for a while so if they have any it should be hooked up.

No Iron
Inca
Japan
Aztecs
Maya
Portugal
Ottos
Egypt
India

Aztecs AND Japan have ivory so either can build the SoZ. Aztecs have horses, Japan does not. Who de we war with? We need to decide when we put an embassy in each capital. We will need gold for that. If we ally either, we must give them math (edit: or philo). Maybe Japan is the better ally, they will build Zeus slower unless they have a great capital (Aztecs will get Golden Age probably fighting only archers and spears).

If we do the HBR last thing, we need a market in Constantinople. We will probably need to have almost 1000 cash on hand to buy a tech. So that would be gpt and lump sum plus lit to give the others. We might have to give up lit monopoly to get Mapmaking however. How much will Constantinople make with a market at 0 science, 0 lux? 45 gpt? It is at 26 with 2 scientists so 45 gpt I take it. So we do need some lump sum gold whenever we hit MAs. It is still too early to predict when this will happen. We might end up waiting on Construction forever.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Ok, i think we need to take some time and be carefull now.

I think we must make the investement of an ambasy in India. This allows us to see their settings and make an estimate of their economic status. We may also find that we need to bring them into war and burn their units to prevent them paying upkeep from our gold.

Thats it for now, i gotta get going and will investigate further tonight.

 

[Paul#42]

I also favor taking Currency and sponsoring Gandhi a bit - he's such a nice guy...
(also I'm still a little angry that he did not fly to the moon )
edit: That happens when you start writing a post before reading the newest posts...

I fail to understand the HBR-thing with the free tech - it was just in case we can't use the Big Picture to trade before getting our own tech, so the thought is obsolete, right?

I also think we should ally the Aztecs against Japan soon even if we can't take part in that war too soon. I see no need to establish an emassy there.

We shall take some time for thorough analysis before I play my set.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Japan does not have writing, and they also have 16 gold.

If we buy an embasy there, we can do so without giving up our semi-monopoly on math and philo (only shared with India) and their 16 gold can be obtained in the deal, paying for most of the ambasy cost.

Before playing on, we should also start thinking about a plan to orchestrate the first world war where the the scientific AI's combine their powers to take over the non scientific infidels.