SGOTM 12 - Spooks

WackenOpenAir · Mar 8, 2007

I know, i know, it aint over yet.

The thing is, i really don't know what we should do now.

I think taking Paris, if it succeeds, is a bit more rewarding.
However, it also has a risk of not succeeding.

Both the extra value of taking paris first and the risk of not succeeding are not big though. (assuming we can indeed get a total of 13 units there)

Andronicus · Mar 8, 2007

Some thoughts

Joanie has the Great Library so getting Theology or Monarchy to her is easy
Once Joan and Ragna are at peace - likely in next 6-10 turns, Joan would then start wonder build if we havnt troops on her doorstep.
At that stage a bikini babe on southern tip with 2 adjacent tiles pillaged (by dromon bombardment) would draw most of her units out of Paris and onto unroaded tile. Our current force will have healed in 6 turns if loaded onto dromons and kept in neutral waters. It is likely to be sufficient to take Paris if AI does its usual predictable response to a worker on southern tile.

This frees up military at home to look for opportunistic time to take Thebes should Persians weaken her defences. I agree Memphis is likely to be too much flip risk, ? gift to Persians as it would improve Persia's research potential.

I think the core development must remain 1st priority with military conquests aimed to get Paris and enough cities for FP secondary - we should have little trouble with unit production once core developed. By all means take Paris and or Thebes if/when opportunity arises, but not at expence of core.

Andronicus · Mar 8, 2007

Re France and salt
Do we know for sure that Joan has no salt?
Could it be on a pillaged (and hence unconnected) tile?
Unlikely I know since only option would appear to be a plains tile (is that possible with editor?)
Alternative is Paris has been set up as super city with no accessible iron or salt - a sitting duck for middle ages conquest.

WackenOpenAir · Mar 8, 2007

Lets see what units we are gonna make in the future. For counting purposes, i start counting at the beginning of the current turnset. So we are currently at T4. I also assume we spend no time on Unis for the comming 30 turns.

-Kyoto is gonna be productive in 13 turns. It will then produce 11-12 spt.
-The capital will make some 4 more workers, then join them in itself.
-Teno will be productive in 19 turns. It will then produce 13-14 spt. Lets assume MDI's in 3.

T5: K_AC (1)
T10: K_AC, C_Drom (2)
T12: C_MDI (3)
T14: C_MDI (4)
T15: K_AC (5)
T16: K_MDI, C_MDI (6)
T18: C_MDI (7)
T20: K_AC, K_MDI, C_MDI (10)
T22: C_MDI, T_MDI (12)
T24: K_MDI, C_MDI (14)
T25: K_AC, T_MDI (16)
T26: C_MDI (17)
T28: K_MDI, C_MDI, T_MDI (20)
T30: K_AC, C_MDI (24)
T31: T_MDI (25)
T32: C_MDI, K_MDI (27)
T34: C_MDI, T_MDI (29)

Maybe that will help us decide what to do.

Abegweit · Mar 8, 2007

WackenOpenAir said:
Lets see what units we are gonna make in the future. For counting purposes, i start counting at the beginning of the current turnset. So we are currently at T4. I also assume we spend no time on Unis for the comming 30 turns.

-Kyoto is gonna be productive in 13 turns. It will then produce 11-12 spt.
-The capital will make some 4 more workers, then join them in itself.
-Teno will be productive in 19 turns. It will then produce 13-14 spt. Lets assume MDI's in 3.

T5: K_AC (1)
T10: K_AC, C_Drom (2)
T12: C_MDI (3)
T14: C_MDI (4)
T15: K_AC (5)
T16: K_MDI, C_MDI (6)
T18: C_MDI (7)
T20: K_AC, K_MDI, C_MDI (10)
T22: C_MDI, T_MDI (12)
T24: K_MDI, C_MDI (14)
T25: K_AC, T_MDI (16)
T26: C_MDI (17)
T28: K_MDI, C_MDI, T_MDI (20)
T30: K_AC, C_MDI (24)
T31: T_MDI (25)
T32: C_MDI, K_MDI (27)
T34: C_MDI, T_MDI (29)

Maybe that will help us decide what to do.

OK. I'll try my hand at it.

Option A.
First target is Paris.
Gift Memphis.
Leave seven troops in France.
Set up a ship chain.
Get ROP with vikes and wait outside Orleans.

5 more troops arrive around T13. Then we attack with about 10-12 troops, depending on how many have been lost in re-takes of Orleans. If we can use the dromons in the battle, our odds should be good. If not they are fair to poor. Another two troops could set sail through the chain and arrive 7 turns later. Probably a good idea. We could wait until they arrive if we don't like our chances and they would always be useful in an attack on the Vikes.

At this point, break up the chain and send most of the boats home. They arrive in straggles with the first arriving about T22 and the last about T27. I haven't calculated the ship chain so this is just rough. Perhaps Paul can help here.

T22: a new group of ten units attacks Egypt and takes out the country easily.
T24: MGL starts out for Paris
T27: the remnants, together with five new troops head off to Delhi
T32: they arrive
T33: we have Delhi and an FP in Paris.

Option B.
First target is Egypt.
Sign ROP with vikes and station four troops outside Orleans to keep the city under control
The other three head home
T13 they arrive at Thebes and, together with 7 troops from home, take the city easily.

At this point, I assume we have nine dromons, all of which are at home, that a flip at Orleans will cost a troop and that the risk has been reduced to 4% (fewer citizens, less resistors and a garrison) and will be going further down over time. We should expect two flips before we return, which will cost us two troops. I also assume that taking Thebes will cost another two.

Switch K to build 3-turn Dromons at turns T19, T22 and T25

T20: A new force of 15 troops and an MGL head for Paris. There is one dromon and 2 troops left at home. (We could also send everything at this point).
T26: a new force of four Dromons and eight troops sets sail for Chitzen Itza (sure) or Delhi (greedy)
T29: In combo with Andro's tricks, seventeen troops easily take Paris
T32: CI/Delhi falls and we have our second core or..
T35: Bergen falls and we have our second core

Conclusions: both options lead to an FP at roughly the same moment.
Option A leaves us in a better position to attack the Indian continent
Option B is much more sure to achieve the objective of an FP.

I haven't checked the ship movement in option A to see if it all works out.

WackenOpenAir · Mar 8, 2007

In option B, i think you have forgotten to substract the 2 units lost at thebes and the units not build because you are building Dromons in Kyoto.
Other than that, it looks very fine :goodjob:

So i think some things are gonna be about 2 turns later in option B.

Still, pretty close.

Chichen Itza is not a good town for us. If possible, we should not have this as an early target. I guess India is having elephants though...
Attacking paris with 10-12 troops makes me very nervous.

Abegweit · Mar 8, 2007

In option B, i think you have forgotten to substract the 2 units lost at thebes and the units not build because you are building Dromons in Kyoto.
Other than that, it looks very fine

So i think some things are gonna be about 2 turns later in option B.

Actually I double-counted some production but the bottom line is that, yeah, I did miscount the number of troops here.

Chichen Itza is not a good town for us. If possible, we should not have this as an early target. I guess India is having elephants though...

Agreed that CI is poor. However. On top of the elephants, Delhi appears to be a city and to have much greater production. It will be a far harder target. If we don't need CI for ten cities, we should definitely go after Delhi. Maybe even if we do.

Attacking paris with 10-12 troops makes me very nervous.

Me too.

WackenOpenAir · Mar 8, 2007

Since we may also have to retake a by then reasonably defended Viking Orleans, you may also be slightly optimistic about the battle against the Vikings in option B. If we have our FP in Paris, the vikings will have no chance. Thats for sure. But to get the FP, we need either a Viking town or Delhy/CI. The Viking town is not totally sure i think. So i think we should consider Delhi/CI (or maybe even another option) to be required for the 10 cities.

We could wait 2 extra turns before sailing to Delhi and have an extra boat filled. Would 10 be enough though for Delhi ?

Abegweit · Mar 9, 2007

Our ninth city is Bergen. The tenth? Not sure. CI is obviously the easiest target.

I'm hoping Orleans will be a town by the time we get there. It has already lost four pop and its duct (Pyramids in Paris). If the Vikes whip or it flips, it will lose more.

As for Delhi, it may be worth opening an embassy when the time gets close (currently 54g). Also depends on what they have learned by then. Unfortunately, we'll probably be facing either WEs or muskets.

WackenOpenAir · Mar 9, 2007

Bergen ninth ?

Aren't we planning to have both Egyptian cities ?

(5 core + 2 egypt + 2 french = 9)

Abegweit · Mar 9, 2007

I was counting one French in view of your comment about Orleans. I can't see how Bergen would be anything but a steamroller with the troops left over from Paris. We should have about ten. I would be very surprised to see how Orleans wouldn't be either especially as it should have been reduced to town status by then. Incidentally, there is another error in my calculations. :blush:

I wasn't counting on any time to take Orleans.

Paul#42 · Mar 9, 2007

nice calculations, guys :thumbsup:

What they all don't take into account:
The longer we wait taking Paris the greater the chances for Joan to get salt.

Let it be a potential trading partner who still has to discover / get gunpowder to be able to trade salt or a disconnected resource that Joan has to activate by using a worker she does not have now (and won't produce in wartime - bikini babes back up!). :hmm:

We won't know this unless we get gunpowder ourself.

Could Persia please do its job? :mad:

Imo if Joan gets salt, our plans to get Paris with MDI and ACs are simply dust. :ack:

edit:Good point about TGL, Andro. I did not have that in mind. :mischief:

killercane · Mar 9, 2007

I wont be back around civ til Tuesday so I can post something up to speed then.

Do we still have that curragh over there to cover our dromon stack? They can then bombard Paris to tell how many units if the galleys move out. Surely there wont be as many left as were there when we attacked. And we have 7 units there correct? Are the vikings still on their doorstep or did they make peace?

I think we should heal them in the boats and then attack again.

Abegweit · Mar 9, 2007

Andronicus said:
Alternative is Paris has been set up as super city with no accessible iron or salt - a sitting duck for middle ages conquest.

It seems that it has been. It's actually bad luck that we got an MGL so early. Otherwise we would never have hatched this mad dash to Paris before guns.

Paul#42 · Mar 9, 2007

I sense a slight preference for Option B. :hmm:

I'd favor that option right now.

My short term plans would be:
1. MM for Theo in 1 turn.
2. sign rop with Ragnar.
3. redraw forces to Orleans.
4. redraw all but two dromons to home, two dromons will pick up three units for home.

Not sure however about the options for these steps:

5a) Keep Memphis, leave it empty. Stay on the gem mountain next to it to heal and for instant retake after flip. :hmm:

5b) Gift Memphis to Persia - we won't ever get it back

.
5c) Gift Memphis to someone else (India?) - might work to take it later
5d) Let Memphis flip (or even Cleo take it) and leave it alone - maybe it becomes Persian, maybe we can take it later. This might encourage Cleo to devide her forces trying to hold it :hmm:

and
6a) Wait for reinforcements from France whatever happens
6b) If Persians attack Thebes, wait for an opportunity, attack with 5+ units and dromon shell support.

and
7a) Upgrade useless curragh in Teo (45g).
7B) Do something usefull with it. Disband it? :dunno:

Could you give me short info of your preferences?

Anything else to consider? :hmm:

Abegweit · Mar 9, 2007

Paul#42 said:
I sense a slight preference for Option B.

I'd favor that option right now.

Agreed on B. I don't want to fail a second time.

My short term plans would be:
1. MM for Theo in 1 turn.
2. sign rop with Ragnar.
3. redraw forces to Orleans.
4. redraw all but two dromons to home, two dromons will pick up three units for home.

1. No urgency. Fire the sci in Teno so the food evens out when the borders grow this turn.
2. And Gpt + g + luxes for tech. Which tech? I'd say feud. Don't tie the ROP to this one. Make separate deals. That way, if the lux trade breaks, we don't get a rep hit.
3. Agreed.
4. Why not all? We need them to get back to France and invade India. That's what Option B said. Oh. And take the slaves home too.

5a) Keep Memphis, leave it empty. Stay on the gem mountain next to it to heal and for instant retake after flip.
5b) Gift Memphis to Persia - we won't ever get it back .
5c) Gift Memphis to someone else (India?) - might work to take it later
5d) Let Memphis flip (or even Cleo take it) and leave it alone - maybe it becomes Persian, maybe we can take it later. This might encourage Cleo to devide her forces trying to hold it

Don't gift. Stay there. I would suggest a) but d) is not bad either.

6a) Wait for reinforcements from France whatever happens
6b) If Persians attack Thebes, wait for an opportunity, attack with 5+ units and dromon shell support.

If Persians take it, I would go for it immediately. I doubt they will though since they can't get past memphis.

7a) Upgrade useless curragh in Teo (45g).
7B) Do something usefull with it. Disband it?

I'm against an upgrade. We are fast running out of money. For the moment, I would send it to Const to provide some protection for our trade routes. Admittedly, they are not in much danger. Maybe just disband?

WackenOpenAir · Mar 10, 2007

Ok, so it seems we are gonna redraw and pull back forces from france.

Do we really want to keep 4 units there to retake orleans ?
If we do spend these 4 units on keeping Orleans from the french, we should also certainly reignite the war with scandinavia as soon as they stop fighting.

I really think we don't need to lose memphis. Flip chances aren't like they were in paris right ?

Is it maybe possible to get some new gpt from AI's ?

Paul#42 · Mar 10, 2007

Okay, I finished my set.

Our returning forces from Paris could turn around again - Egypt is ours.
In turn #8 I had pinged Thebes and after two hits, an injured spear went on top. So I couldn't stand the chance.

Here's the log:

Spoiler :

Do we turn around or do we chose another aim? :hammer:

the save

markh · Mar 10, 2007

Maybe I am just too dumb, but why didn't we consider to just raze Orleans. This city was of use and will be of not much use. Nobody can build settlers, so who cares about flips.

Abegweit · Mar 10, 2007

We have Egypt and no losses anywhere.

As hoped, Orleans is now a town but the whip-penalty must be fierce.

Return? Well, lessee. We certainly can think about it. Upgrading the warrior gives us fourteen units. That would certainly be enough to take out Paris (we are rated strong to them). Unfortunately, it is almost too early to return. Ya done too well, kid.

Ideally we would like to arrive there a little before the ROP with the Scandies expires.

Maybe a little side trip to say hi to Gandhi might be in order first? Memphis needs some sort of defence anyway so sending everything we have might be imprudent. In any case, I think it's time to take a look-see at Delhi.

Teo needs to be switched to a granary and to go on worker duty. We don't have enough yet. It will complete this turn if the city is given both the cow and the BG. Unfortunately that is bad timing so finish it in two, making sure it has ten food in the box at the end of the second turn.

SGOTM 12 - Spooks

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