SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[WackenOpenAir]

I intend to take out the Celts. They don't like us anyway.

 

[Andronicus]

Looking good,

What to do if none of the scientifics get fission for free?
Remember getting it ourselves wont allow switch via TBP, we go to TBP, can make trades and select tech to research, but the freebie is allocated after leaving TBP.

The probability of all 8 remaining scientifics (incl Byz) missing out on fission is .75^8=0.10 (10% probability). Probability of 7 other scientifics missing is 13%.

I think all we can do is cross our fingers - if our scientific buddies dont get fission we will need to lose the shields and rebuild - prob 7 turns, most likely same as self research fission (11200 - prob 6-7 turns)

edit I missed 1 scientific so odds a little better than I originally calculated

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I'll make sure our capital finishes some build that turn.
I think the capital should be first in row.
Even if i can't swich with TBP, i can when the capital completes its build.

 

[Andronicus]

I'll make sure our capital finishes some build that turn.
I think the capital should be first in row.
Even if i can't swich with TBP, i can when the capital completes its build.

Good plan, but I suggest Delhi as that is the only city which comes before Paris in the pecking order.

Bottom line is 10% chance no-one gets free fission and we have to research - rebuilding UN would then time in with self research if Paris is mined and hires engineers.

Possible spanners in the works
Appearing weak to AI may invite more dows (copying Babs), gifting lux may deter (? draft a few conscripts if have pop to spare without hurting science)
Predicting UN opponent - currently Persia with 35pop, America has 33pop, no-one else comes close - I suggest not trading sanitation to Americans, could even mine a tile or 2 in Bergan under rop to reduce pop (or at least stop further growth).

 

[Paul#42]

Predicting UN opponent - currently Persia with 35pop, America has 33pop, no-one else comes close - I suggest not trading sanitation to Americans, could even mine a tile or 2 in Bergan under rop to reduce pop (or at least stop further growth).

IIRC we can choose our opponent by gifting some large cities after trading for fission. That's why I did long term trades with Persia (expires with Mongols defeat) and America - we can also chose Incas if we like.

We should choose soon - the one should not be interesting for gpt-trades.
Zulus?

I would not like to develop foreign tiles in any way. I'm not sure if this exploit is officially banned but I would at least consider it bad style.

 

[Abegweit]

currently Persia with 35pop, America has 33pop

I like both these civs as choices for our opponent. Two reasons:

1. Unlike most civs, everyone knows them. This should make it easier to manipulate the vote.
2. We are currently at peace with them and can thus use Paul's gifting trick if required.

Unfortunately, we have ROPs with both of these countries which will not expire for 15-16 turns.

Consequently, I propose Sumeria as our opponent. They are the only other civ who meets both of the requirements above and our deals with them will expire in this turnset.

Order of events:
Build the UN
Draw Gilgamesh into any wars we may still have going on
Gift him enough pop to make him the opponent.
Declare on him
Draw as many other countries into the war as possible

 

[Andronicus]

Knowledge of other civs shouldnt necessarily determine our opponent since we can gift communications to whomever we want.

 

[Abegweit]

True. Then it really doesn't make any difference which one we choose.

Best choice would probably be a scientific over which we have little leverage due to gifting. Cathy is probably best due to the broken treaty.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I played 5 turns.

Only flight remains.

Mongols are gone. 3 armies could invade Celts this turn.
Remaining time (maybe 4, maybe 5 turns) is probably too short to eliminate them though.

I micromanaged everyone on a diet that can be sustained for 4 turns. I get to 1784 bpt.
We still have a stack of workers in Egypt and France.
It may be possible to get flight in 4, but i am not sure.

We have 33 towns. The palace costs 900. Paris has 708 shields produced now. Paris makes 62 spt and has 15 specialists. I am mining 2 tiles and the hill is being cleared of pollution.

If the tiles are worked, I mine another one and polution does not hit again, Paris could get the 1000 shields in 4 turns. If polution strikes again, maybe it cannot. (if i clean it the same turn, did we lose the tile for a turn or not?)
To produce 100+ shields in 1 turn, we would need to use engineers. Using engineers costs us 45 beakers in research. I think that means we can't get flight in 4.

So in order to get flight in 4, we need:
-A 34th city so that Paris doesn't need engineers.
-Joining in the last workers to get beyond 1800gpt.
-Some luck with the polution.

So do I start another war and go for flight in 4? Or de we make peace here, take 5 turns for flight, let Paris use the engineers, and keep the workers around ?

Edit: If, (the last turn) i change to an unsustainable food deficit causing people to die in every city, it may be able to do both flight in 4 and let paris use engineers.

 

[Abegweit]

Damn! So close.

There are four more SPT avail if you hire scientists in the capital (it shouldn't be working the iron anyway) and give some coast over to Osaka and Teo. That brings our deficit down to 48 which should be easy to make up with some starvation at the end. A Celtic city might help too. And we will certainly have in it time.

So I vote for trying in four. I really don't see the downside anyway. If we don't make it then we don't.

so far.

Edit: X-post with WOA's edit.

Edit2: By my count, there are 72 citizens avail for starvation on the last turn in corrupt cities alone. No doubt there are more elsewhere. Perhaps an additional 250-280 beakers on that turn. That should be more than enough. Oh. And I found another citizen who should be put to work in Babylon. Speaking of Babylon, there are Thracian tribes near there. But you probably knew that.

 

[killercane]

Well here is what I see (without starving the cities):

1 more scientist can be hired in each of the following:

Niag Falls
Salamanca
St. Pete

2 scientists at Kyoto rather than a sea tile and a 1 commerce grass leaves it at 0 growth and added science.

1 scientist in Karakorum for 3 turns.

1 additional beaker is available at Teoti with scientist rather than sea tile.

We gain a citizen at Tenochtitlan in 2 turns (scientist).

We can work a sea tile at Bombay and a 2 commerce mountain at Delhi (+1 apiece).

When the pollution is cleared at Constantinople all those workers can be added there (+24?).

With pollution cleaned at Paris we gain quite a bit of science from that currently unused tile. Those workers can then also be added to be engineers or scientists either one.

It will be nice to be done .

 

[killercane]

If we invade the Celts though, we can get 1000 shields in the palace. If we do not however, and feel we can easily get the required amount of shields in place, we can leave them. Just needs some calculation on how many shields we can get with and without pollution.

If we get pollution there and need to switch to engineers we can starve cities elsewhere. I dont see any downside either in going ahead with Flight in 4.

 

[Abegweit]

Well here is what I see (without starving the cities):

1 more scientist can be hired in each of the following:

Niag Falls
Salamanca
St. Pete

More accurately, the cities will starve on the last round. But that's OK - and leads to a general principle. Scientists should be hired everywhere such that there is as little food as possible on the last round.

In fact, it's pretty clear that we would benefit if we started starving fully-corrupt cities immediately. Sparta alone could be generating 94 beakers this turn instead of just 58. That's almost the entire deficit

It will be nice to be done .

Indeed.

 

[Abegweit]

Another point to consider: we need money for embassies. The most expensive is with the English. If we choose our opponent on that basis, we need 321g to get embassies with everyone. That's probably overkill, but we will need some. As things stand now, it shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Paul#42]

Nice progress.
fighting
I guess the Celts might be a little tough nut to crack. They should have some GS around...
But if you don't mind feeling like a pinball...
Have fun

embassies & how to afford them
We can still sell all libs in corrupt towns to get money. Maybe some more buildings (granaries, some harbors, some markets - even some courts if we get our beakers early - check CA2, most gain 3-4 beakers).
However we need those embassies the turn before finishing Flight - no embassies via TBP.

research
If necessary, we could put every single citizen in Sparta and alike on science... :whip:

pollution
IIRC pollution comes before commerce is calculated, so the benefit of that tile is lost for the turn even if you clean immediately.

opponent
Sorry, I had thought of combining rop with Persia & America with the Alliance against Mongols so it would have run out by now. Seems I had changed my mind

Are you sure that my idea to gift towns to our opponent works? Never tried that yet
I better find an old 20k game to run a test...

edit: Just tested in an old Cotm23 save:
Timing: researched Fission - switched Palace to UN - gifted towns to Greece - UN election being held - Alex is opponent (in previous ungifted attempt it was William).
Just for the record: I did not win, Alex got 2, I got one and one abstained. But I did not lose either (which I had thought losing 1-2 or 1.5-2.5).

Abstinence sucks, we need the absolute mayority!

So: embassies with everbody, we need every vote.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

These are gonna be the last 4 turns in my civ carreer, i am gonna quit again.

-I will not attack anyone else. The rets of the game will be peace.
-With the plan to starve citizens, i am sure there are enough resources that i will easilly get the required shields, beakers and gold for embassies in 4 turns.
-Russia should be our opponent since they are the ones we have issues with. An alliance against them should resolve those issues.
-I will gift Russia enough to make sure they are gonna be our opponent.

Before playing, i am first going to the coffoshop now before it closes . Go ahead and find some test game. I will stop before the last turn and see if there is anything you came up with.

 

[Paul#42]

Just to ensure you find it (after finding home from the coffey shop...)

Just tested in an old Cotm23 save:
Timing: researched Fission - switched Palace to UN - gifted towns to Greece - UN election being held - Alex is opponent (in previous ungifted attempt it was William).
Just for the record: I did not win, Alex got 2, I got one and one abstained. But I did not lose either (which I had thought losing 1-2 or 1.5-2.5).

Abstinence sucks, we need the absolute mayority!

So: embassies with everbody, we need every vote.

Have success.

And: Wait for the next SGotm announcement before you have to redraw from your retirement again...

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I have played up to the last turn.

I am tired now and i need a good planning for the last turn. I have never done this before and i don't want to screw up my very last turn

 

[Abegweit]

It will not be your last turn.

Admit it dude. You are hooked. It's a drug and you like the effect on your brain.

 

[Andronicus]

Thats some impressive MMing Wacken

Call me a worrier but what are the Persian stacks doing near Nineveh?
There is also a caravel / frigate pair off Carthage coast.