SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

It looks to me as though Williams culture blocks the path on both sides of his island. As there probably won't be too much of interest up in the tundra we might want to consider sending the workboat to explore the islands to the south.

How did Cathy's WB get to us? They can't have OB yet.

As William looks like he will me the most powerful AI we have met so far I think we should put espionage on him. It can't be long before Vicky meets another AI.

Agree.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Plus, what are you doing in Paris now? It seems like you're not overflowing into the worker after set3, right? Best if I just see a save, I think.

Uhhh, okay... well... umm... I don't currently have a saved game where Paris is doing what's in my "updated PPP" while Gold City follows the new approach. Like I said, I won't do so until I find out for certain what you've done so far (particularly on that Turn 74 that I was talking about).

But, what I can say is that:
No, we did not overflow Settler 3's Hammers into Worker 2. Overflowing in that way would have corresponding to Scenario y). I went with Scenario z). See message #956 to know what I am talking about when I say "Scenario y)" and "Scenario z)."

I chose this approach as per the reasoning in message #960.

The other reason is that Scenario z):
i. gets us more overflow Hammers in the non-Worker/Settler build items, which allows us to get Warrior 2 on time to board the Galley
AND
ii. gets us a bit more Commerce due to delaying Settler 4 for 1 turn, which saves us on a bit of Maintenance

Maybe we don't need that extra bit of Commerce since we might still not get Writing earlier, but we should likely follow one of Scenario x) or z) in favour of Scenario y)--Scenario y) is the one where we overflow Settler 3's Hammers into Worker 2--because "using up" those Hammers in Worker 2 delays Warrior 2.

Now, it COULD be that we'd still be able to get Warrior 2 out much later and still get it to Gold City, but I didn't test that approach, so I'm not sure that Warrior 2 could arrive on time.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think we should save the free missionary to spread religion to a GP farm where it does not spread naturally.

I agree completely. Very important.

It looks to me as though Williams culture blocks the path on both sides of his island. As there probably won't be too much of interest up in the tundra we might want to consider sending the workboat to explore the islands to the south.

Here's the problem. We met Cathy's wb at the western fish and she then went due south through that little channel... Does that mean she came from the SW or the N? Since she only has 1 city, she might well be up in Siberia...

As William looks like he will me the most powerful AI we have met so far I think we should put espionage on him. It can't be long before Vicky meets another AI.

FIne by me. I'm never quite sure what to do with it, but it is helpful to see their research, if possible. Do you mean 100% on him or 50-50?

 

[mdy]

FIne by me. I'm never quite sure what to do with it, but it is helpful to see their research, if possible. Do you mean 100% on him or 50-50?

100%, as we will get data on 1 AI much sooner, and still get the data on the second AI at the same time as we would f we went 50-50.

Here's the problem. We met Cathy's wb at the western fish and she then went due south through that little channel... Does that mean she came from the SW or the N? Since she only has 1 city, she might well be up in Siberia...

Good point. Do you have any idea when we would have some spare exploration capacity for the southern islands if we send the workboat north?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Good point. Do you have any idea when we would have some spare exploration capacity for the southern islands if we send the workboat north?

We don't really. It's a PITA. Bbp was right about this being the rub with delaying writing.

I guess if we go south and don't find her, then we know she's up north. We just don't know how far away. She and Willem have met, but I guess that could also come from either direction.

How soon do we need to know exactly how far she is?

 

[LowtherCastle]

On the other hand, we have about 24t to OBs. Our wb might keep dead-ending wherever it goes until then.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Dhoom, my latest Paris plan was this:

OF into wkr2 (1t)
GOld wb (clams nets on T93)
set4 pre-build to ~54h
wkr2 prebuild (1t)
set4
wkr2
warrior (garrisons GOld on T100)
monument
marble wb

So if I go with your plan, it's back to the drawing board for me...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Yes, I switched the corn to the mine on T74.

Okay, I have started to play forwards while paying attention to both what Paris does and what Gold City does.

However, I'm not really certain what to do about the Science Slider stuff anymore.

One option is that I can just ignore trying to optimize it for now, since the values would change based on game conditions. This approach is what I have chosen to do for now.

For example, if you wanted me to check out Mysticism to see how things might or might not need to change, then I'd need to know on which turn you met an AI that knows that tech and I'd also need to know the Science Slider rates you ran to date.

Of course, then I'd also want to know how many AIs that you know who know Masonry and then we'd need to update the numbers if you met another AI that learned Masonry... it's going to be a bit of work for potentially marginal benefit.

I don't mind doing it, but it's going to mean a lot of "stops and starts," updating me whenever someone else is met that knows a particular tech or whenever someone existing learns a particular tech.

So, I think that what I will do for now is just play fowards with a test game where:
We don't meet any other AIs and we pretend that Vicky does not know Meditation or Masonry... essentially, giving us the same "worst case scenario" that I used for calculating the Science Slider values that I used.



One further thought on the Science Slider: by changing what we are doing in Gold City, we will have a lot less turns at "20 Commerce" or "30 Commerce," meaning that running Binary Science more of the time will just have to happen. So, no matter what you plan to do with the Science Slider values, if you do plan to use a non-Binary-value, you should confirm that the F2 screen shows that we are getting a multiple of 10 Commerce... if we aren't, then just use Binary Science for that turn, unless there is an exception case (i.e. an exception case occuring when you need a tech on the next turn but can't quite run at 100% Science).

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Dhoom, my latest Paris plan was this:

OF into wkr2 (1t)

Okay, well, as I said, it's nice to overflow into the Monument insteaad of Worker 2, so that we'll then be able to complete the Monument and Warrior 2 in time to send Warrior 2 off to the west...
Warrior 2 ends up landing on Gold City such that we will end up with 1 extra turn of Worker 1 "having nothing to do," so I just had Worker 1 spend 1 turn buiding a Workshop and then stopping to build his Workshop on the same turn.

Doing so doesn't really lose out, overall, still get to Pasture the Pig square 3 turns after the Pig + Magical Fish City is founded.

Following Scenario z) and thus getting Worker 2 out 1 turn later than your Scenario y)--where Scenario y) is overflowing Settler 3's Hammers into Worker 2--means that Worker 1 once again has to spend 1 turn building a partial Workshop by Stone City while it waits for Worker 2 to complete its Road on the Desert Hills square. This 2nd partial Workshop build happens on Turn 105, 1375 BC, for one turn... on the next turn, if you wait for Worker 2 to complete the Road, then Worker 1 can move 2NE as planned and start on the Road where the Pig + Magical Fish City will be founded. As I said, there is no delay in getting the Pig Pastured, and we also still get to complete the Road where the Pig + Magical Fish City needs to be founded on time for the Settler to settle one turn after he "unloads" in Stone City.

Thus, these "wasted" Worker turns don't affect us adversely.

If you do instead follow Scenario y) and overflow the Hammers into Worker 2, then I have no idea when you'll be able to complete Warrior 2 (it might be possible to do it on time, but we kind of want to keep the Galley near Stone City so that we can get the Pig + Magical Fish Settler there, so I doubt that we'll have another opportunity to send Warrior 2 to the west. You are free to prove me wrong, though.).

GOld wb (clams nets on T93)

I'm lost here. Are you talking about building a Work Boat in Paris? I was building a Monument, since we needed Monument in order to keep growing Paris without Unhappiness when we grow to City Size 6 on Turn 101, 1475 BC. If you aren't talking about building a Work Boat in Paris as your first non-Worker/non-Settler build item after Settler 3/Settler 4/Worker 2 (the build item may have been started somewhere after one of those Settlers or the Worker), then I'm not sure what you're talking about.

set4 pre-build to ~54h

I had 55 Hammers, but it's still a 3-pop-whip.

wkr2 prebuild (1t)

I do so for 2 turns, on Turn 90, 1750 BC and on Turn 91, 1725 BC.

set4
wkr2
warrior (garrisons GOld on T100)
monument

I get these same build items but I complete the Monument before the Warrior. Don't you run into Unhappiness in Paris at City Size 6?

marble wb

I did so, too, but I didn't complete it until after whipping the Forge. We could have completed it first, but doing so would have meant an extra turn of Unhapppiness at City Size 8. I decided that I'd just accept the delay in Food in Marble City in exchange for the extra Hammers from completing the Work Boat after the Forge. This decision can certainly change, though, and we can complete the Work Boat before we complete the Forge.

So if I go with your plan, it's back to the drawing board for me...

Well, my updated PPP, which is named "PPP SG13 T72 for Oracle MC + Pyramids updated ver2" has all of these things for Paris... it's currently wrong for Gold City, but I can update it for Gold City.

It will also be wrong for Science Slider values... I can update those in one of two ways:
a) The easy way: stick with the perentage Science Slider values that worked the best for no AIs knowing the techs that we are going to research and only make changes to turns where running non-Binary-Science no longer makes sense
OR
b) Get updated info from you and intensely micromanage the Science Slider values

I don't really care which way, but I'll stick with option a) for now, since it's probably not going to be worth it to go to the trouble of following option b) now that we'll have a lot less turns with Commerce values that would still allow us to favourably run non-Binary-Science.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Actually, it would help to know:
1. Your current total Flasks obtained in Mysticism
2. Your current amount of Gold
3. Any info that you can give on techs...
a) Confirm that you believe that only 2 AIs that we have met know Mysticism
b) Confirm, if possible, how many AIs that we have met which you think currently know Masonry
4. The game date that this info is for (I think that it will be for Turn 79, 2025 BC, but please confirm)

 

[LowtherCastle]

1. 100/117; +22 coming this turn (+1b because 2 AIs know mysticism)
2. 15g (-2gpt)
3.a. Only 2 AIs know mysticism.
3.b. None of the 3 AIs know masonry.
4. T79

-------------

The "Gold wb" I was referring to is the first one, meant to net the clams. You're planning to use those nets on T89, but my plan doesn't net them until T93.

I only grow into unhappiness when I'm building the settler, so nothing lost.

EDIT: The warrior IS transported to GOld CIty and garrisons T100 in my plan. Teh galley is not missed at all.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

EDIT: The warrior IS transported to GOld CIty and garrisons T100 in my plan. Teh galley is not missed at all.

Okay, so... since I don't know what your plan is, as it apparently different from your PPP spreadsheet... do you still want me to go forwards with updating my "updated PPP" document as per my approach?

If not, what alterations should I make?

Personally, I like the idea of getting the Monument before Warrior 2 so that we can grow to Size 6 without Unhappiness, as it means getting +2 Commerce from working a Coast square.

I was getting Warrior 2 on Turn 102, 1450 BC.

As I said, the "cost" is that we have to spend 1 turn Workshopping at Marble City. However, since we'd end up having to Workshop over near Stone City anyway, I'm guessing that we'd just end up having to Workshop for 2 turns near Stone City (or else lose a Worker turn by moving onto the Des H before the Road is created on the Des H square). So, I'm not sure that the "cost" of getting the Monument before Warrior 2 really hurts us... two squares that have a 1-turn-partial Workshop on them versus a single square that has a 2-turn-partial Workshop on it doesn't sound much different to me.

I only grow into unhappiness when I'm building the settler, so nothing lost.

If there is no way to get the Happiness, then yes. However, if there is a way to get the Happiness, then we lose the opportunity to get +2 Commerce per turn.

Also, I'm not really sure which Settler you are talking about here. For Settler 4, it's not possible to get the Monument first (excluding a silly case where you just whip the Monument in order to prove my statement wrong), and for Settler 5, I didn't think that we were starting to build it until after we complete the Forge.

If you're starting on Settler 5 earlier than getting the Forge simply due to running into Unhappiness, then I think that the case for building the Monument is made: it's better to wait until after we get the Forge before putting any turns into Settler 5, so that we can use the Forge's bonus Hammers, right?

The "Gold wb" I was referring to is the first one, meant to net the clams. You're planning to use those nets on T89, but my plan doesn't net them until T93.

Okay, I understand now. So, yeah, if you want to use the Clam and follow my latest Gold City approach, then we'll have to do whatever I did differently in Paris to build the Gold City's 1st Clam Work Boat sooner, as I am scheduled to work the Clam as soon as it is netted.


I guess what I will do is try an optimize the Science Slider values, where possible... it might or might not be too late to matter for Mysticism but it may matter for Masonry. Soon after that point, if we go with my updated Gold City approach, we'll probably be stuck with having to use Binary Science anyway, which would mean not worrying about the calculations.

Now, the situation becomes, though: if we find that an AI which we know happens to know Meditation, then we should consider learn Meditation first.

Of course, we're more worried about The Oracle's date than we are about The Pyramids' date, and if we research Meditation first, we'll encourage more AIs to challenge us for The Oracle. So, it might just be best to stick with Masonry before Meditation anyway.


I'm still not sure which approach that you'd rather follow as for build orders, but I'll go with the one that I'm suggesting alongside my Science Slider recommendations, so that you'll at least be able to see the whole picture in spreadsheet format before you choose to use or not use it. I'll only update to a certain point, though, so that you can get the document sooner and so that if you decide not to follow the path, then I won't be spending too long on the exercise.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

As an example of how looking at Science Slider values can help us:
We won't benefit from 2 AIs knowing Mysticism if we use an 80% Science Rate on Turn 79 (the planned value that would have worked fine for 0 AIs knowing Mysticism), but we do get 1 additional overflow Flask if we use either a 90% Science Rate or a 100% Science Rate on Turn 79 relative to a game where we do not know 2 AIs that know Mysticism.


I'll have to play around with the numbers for Masonry to see which amount of overflow Flasks would be better to get.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Okay, so I'm going to say that on Turn 79, set the Science Slider to 90%. On Turn 80, set it to 70% which researching Masonry. Doing so gives us the best ratio of Commerce spent to Flasks gained for Turn 80, while also giving us a bonus Flask for 2 AIs knowing Mysticism on Turn 79.

Then, as of turn 81, we can find out if any AI that we have met knows Meditation. Honestly, since our "end point" is knowing ALL of Masonry, Meditation, and Priesthood (we have no use for these techs until we know all three of them), we do not really need to complete research on either of Masonry or Meditation until we're a turn or two away from completing the other one of those techs. If we wanted, we could even delay completing Masonry until we were 1 turn away from learning Priesthood. Doing so reduces the potential for an AI to follow our Research path, which not only reduces competition for The Oracle and The Pyramids but also increases the chances of the AIs getting techs like Iron Working (so that they can trade it to us) or Writing (so that we can get Open Borders sooner).


I don't think that our approaches diverge on Turns 79 or 80, since we're just building Settler 3 in Paris as of Turn 79 (presumably you just completed the Lighthouse on Turn 79 and have started on Settler 3--if not, please let me know!) and are still at Size 1 in Gold City. Therefore, those Science Slider values allow you to play 2 turns, get a bit more exploration in, and find out if we should consider switching research to Meditation on Turn 81 based on at least 1 AI knowing it.

Obviously, I'd appreciate knowing whether any AIs have learned Masonry by Turn 81, as well.

Meanwhile, I'll work on updating my copy of the updated PPP to include the changes to Gold City, while holding off on further optimizing the Science Slider values too much until we have learned more about who knows Meditaiton and/or has learned Masonry within those 2 turns.


Of course, if you don't want to play forwards for now, you don't have to, either, and I'll just do my best to guess at reasonable Science Slider values to use.


For anyone who is interested, here's a screenshot of some of the calculations that I'm using for figuring out ideal Science Slider rates.

Spoiler :

Note that for Turn 80, we're looking at the two sets of tables of info that are within the red rectangle. After that turn, the info inside of the red rectangle is probably throw-away, except if I were to re-use it in my personal games. Is it worth the effort? Probably not, but it's fun for me to do.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Well, to be honest, I'm not 100% sure where our paths diverge, but I was planning on whipping Settler 3 on Turn 80. If you aren't planning on doing so, then I guess that our paths do diverge sooner than I thought.

 

[LowtherCastle]

No probs, Dhoom, I'll play forward. Our western wb retraces its steps for a couple of turns no matter what.

xpost

Okay, I'll just play 1t forward and we'll know about Meditation.

 

[LowtherCastle]

CHeck that. I can't play forward, because you would be building the wb this turn, right? Whereas I have it set to set3.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

CHeck that. I can't play forward, because you would be building the wb this turn, right? Whereas I have it set to set3.

EDIT: I'm looking at the wrong spreadsheet. Hang on.

Okay... sorry about that... okay, so it looks like you should have been building a Work Boat (not having just completed the Lighthouse) on Turn 78. However, we should have grown to City Size 6 on Turn 79, which warrants building Settler 3 on Turn 79.

Only if we somehow aren't at City Size 6 as of Turn 79 would I be completely lost and would need to see the real game or an updated test saved game.


I'm whipping Settler 3 on Turn 80, which means that we would have had to have started it on Turn 79. If you aren't whipping Settler 3 on Turn 80, then yeah, we can't go past Turn 80.

 

[LowtherCastle]

The lh completed T78 and then what I did was build the settler for a turn, so I'm still at pop5, but the settler has 17h. To match your plan, I would have to build the wb for a turn.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I guess it doesn't matter if I build the wb for 1t now or in a turn or two, does it?

In which case I can build it now and play forward 1t, right?