SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[shyuhe]

Hrm. Well this is annoying Does Ragnar have metal casting? We may be able to fend him off using triremes.

Can you post the save so that others can see? We need to try to figure out if any of the other AIs are valid war targets based on power ratios.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Here's a screenshot of the game, not really to show anything in particular, but just to help "root you" back into things:

As you can see, Ragnar has the fist icon.

Also, Pig City has just switched from working the Des Hills Mine to working a Coast square... it will just keep working Coast squares from here on in as it grows.


No luck on the Confucianism front--it still only exists in Gold City and Marble City. Shall we Revolt into Organized Religion?


No sign of any of Ragnar's units... yet. That said, one AI has nearly the same low number of Soliders as us (presumably Isabella due to her bragging about her Awesome Archers) and she would make for a better target, right Ragnar? Right? Come on!

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Can you post the save so that others can see?

Sure, why not?

Anyway, I can't really play forwards until we decide if we're going to Revolt into Organized Religion or if we'd rather just have Confucianism in 3 Cities and hope for the best with auto-spread over the next little while.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Does Ragnar have metal casting? We may be able to fend him off using triremes.

No, he does not have Metal Casting. See for yourself:

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Here is your Session Turn Log from Turn 133, 675 BC to Turn 138, 550 BC and a link to the REAL saved game:

Spoiler :

Turn 133, 675 BC: You have discovered Monotheism!
Turn 133, 675 BC: You have trained a Settler in Paris. Work has now begun on The Pyramids.

Turn 134, 650 BC: You have constructed a Granary in Stone. Work has now begun on a Warrior.
Turn 134, 650 BC: You have constructed a Granary in Pig Mmm Fish. Work has now begun on a Lighthouse.

Turn 135, 625 BC: Willem van Oranje adopts Organized Religion!

Turn 136, 600 BC: Paris has grown to size 5.
Turn 136, 600 BC: Pig Mmm Fish can hurry Lighthouse for 1? with 42? overflow and +1? for 28 turns.
Turn 136, 600 BC: Pig Mmm Fish will grow to size 3 on the next turn.

Turn 137, 575 BC: Pig Mmm Fish has grown to size 3.
Turn 137, 575 BC: You are the worst enemy of Ragnar.
Turn 137, 575 BC: Catherine is the worst enemy of Isabella.
Turn 137, 575 BC: Victoria will trade Hunting
Turn 137, 575 BC: Catherine will trade Hunting
Turn 137, 575 BC: Willem van Oranje will trade Hunting
Turn 137, 575 BC: Will Sign Open Borders: Catherine
Turn 137, 575 BC: Iron has been founded.
Turn 137, 575 BC: Deal Canceled: Pig to Catherine for Sheep
Turn 137, 575 BC: Deal Canceled: Marble to Catherine for Cow
Turn 137, 575 BC: Marble will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 137, 575 BC: Stone will grow to size 2 on the next turn.
Turn 137, 575 BC: You have constructed a Lighthouse in Pig Mmm Fish. Work has now begun on a Warrior.

Turn 138, 550 BC: Paris can hurry The Pyramids for 2? with 10? overflow and +1? for 57 turns.
Turn 138, 550 BC: Marble has grown to size 5.
Turn 138, 550 BC: Stone has grown to size 2.
Turn 138, 550 BC: Stone can hurry Warrior for 1? with 22? overflow, 16? added to the treasury, and +1? for 38 turns.

The REAL saved game

 

[babybluepants]

Sucky.

We have to assume we're the target here. He likes Isabella, so it's either us or Willem. Did WHEOOHRN appear this turn or before?
What is he attacking with this early? 2 galleys? 3 galleys? Triremes are easiest to defend with, but we could need some land units, too.
Both workers should mine/road the iron now.
WB needs to spy.

Rival best soldiers = 124k

Ragnar's power:

Tech = 34k
Population = min. 6k
Visible buildings = 3k (Nid barracks) + 3k (Upsalla barracks) + 2k (Nid walls) + 10k (GW) = 18k
Assumed units = 18k (2 archers per city) + 4k (2 galleys) = 22k

Total = 80k

Maximum possible left = 44k (7 Axes + 1 Galley)

Willem's power:

Tech = 38k
Population = 9k
Visible buildings = 3k (Utrecht barracks)
Assumed units = 24k (2 archers per city) + 4k (2 galleys) = 28k


Total = 74k

I'm guessing Willem's the rival best, so Ragnar should be lower. He probably also has another barracks and 1-2 more wandering units at least.

 

[babybluepants]

I know you said it already, Dhoom, but what does it take to bribe Willem into war? Does he need to be Friendly or just Pleased?

 

[babybluepants]

Guess we should've bribed him against Vicky.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

We have to assume we're the target here. He likes Isabella, so it's either us or Willem. Did WHEOOHRN appear this turn or before?

I just checked *very carefully* (opening older saves, looking for the icon, and then exiting to the main menu): he went into Hands Full mode on Turn 136, 600 BC.

What is he attacking with this early? 2 galleys? 3 galleys? Triremes are easiest to defend with, but we could need some land units, too.
Both workers should mine/road the iron now.

He has at least 1 Galley, since we saw it near a Barb Galley just before the Barb Galley disappeared. That Galley had 3 movement points, so we can expect all of his Galleys to have the same.

Sure, we can connect-up the Iron ASAP using both Workers.

WB needs to spy.

That's the plan, once it gets around that Horse Island.

Rival best soldiers = 124k...

I have Demographics screenshots from prior turns, if they will help. Just tell me which turns you want to see and which screens (i.e. F8 screens? F9 screens?).

I know you said it already, Dhoom, but what does it take to bribe Willem into war? Does he need to be Friendly or just Pleased?

Friendly. He has "1" for Shared Religion in the XML, meaning that this value will max out at +2. His Fave Civic IS Free Religion, after all.

If we were to somehow get him up to Friendly status, then he'd be bribable in a war against any player that he is Cautious or lower with.

Guess we should've bribed him against Vicky.

Maybe. Both sides would have likely asked for support in the war and we would have refused both sides. Then, an angry Ragnar (who wouldn't have been angry at the person that he declared war on but would have been angry at the Human Team that refused to help him) could have chosen to end the Vicky war and come after us... but with Triremes under his belt (since we were suggesting Metal Casting for War with Vicky at the time).

So, let's not beat ourselves up over it--we made the right call.


Besides, there's still a chance that he wants to gore Isabella's head on a pole.


Anyway, if he does come after us, it won't necessarily be a bad thing. It will be a nice "wake up call" to get us past the passive stage of the game.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Frankly, we'd have much better prospects by trying to get Vicky involved in a war. We'd only have to get her up to Pleased and then she'd declare war on anyone that she is Pleased or lower with. She is Cautious towards Ragnar right now, so that situation includes Ragnar by a long shot--we'd just need to get Vicky up to Pleased status, which is probably possible if we were to gift her a tech... like... I don't know... maybe... Math? Math is due in 3 turns if we Revolt into Org Rel and is a tech which we planned to gift to her anyway. It might take multiple tech gifts, though, to get her up to Pleased status.


Would bribing Vicky against Ragnar help? Maybe.


It used to be that AIs, once involved in a war, would not engage in a new war. But, I have seen them still execute their war plans against their original target even after getting involved in a new war, but I think only in BtS. However, we're playing BtS.

But, "Hands Full" mode without having refused a Demand likely means that the AI has to build up sufficient Power within a short enough period of time in order to want to execute on its war plans. So, feasibly, if we could get some of his units destroyed by another AI, then sure, he might "give up" on the idea of declaring war on us.

However, Vicky is kind of far away from him, so I wouldn't see her destroying much. In fact, if Ragnar will NOT forget his original plans, then bribing another AI against him prematurely might be worse, as he might be even more willing to build Military Units and thus might meet his desired Power target sooner than he would have done had we just "left him alone." "Don't stir up the hornets if you don't have good protective gear (Triremes) on hand."


But, I'm not really sure about how the "continuing war plans after a different war crops up" functionality works.

 

[babybluepants]

An AI wouldn't attack a fortified trireme with a loaded galley, correct? What would happen if we just had a couple of triremes positioned to block his approach? I'm just trying to think of the most hammer efficient defence. Marble is on flat land, and Ragnar's axes will be C2, Shock or C1+CR1 - that's hard to defend, even if he lands only 4 units. We'd need a barracks somewhere, and at least as many axes as he has units, plus galley turns, plus still a trireme to protect from seafood pillaging.

 

[shyuhe]

Triremes can't fortify.

 

[babybluepants]

Ok... parked trireme.

 

[mdy]

I think we have to revolt to OR now. A turn of anarchy can't possibly outweigh an extra GP.


As for Ragnar I wouldn't worry too much for now as it will take him time to get a strike force ready. The only change I would make would be to build an extra trieme in stone city, and perhaps to send a scout down to Nidaros to give us some advanced warning if he comes after us.

 

[Mitchum]

I think we have to revolt to OR now. A turn of anarchy can't possibly outweigh an extra GP.

Agreed. I just played around with the gpp spreadsheet. If we forego the Pacifism bonus in either Paris or Pigs, the time to get that 5th GP is WAY too long.

So, my understanding is that we will use our GPs as follows:

1st (GS from Gold City) - Bulb Philosophy
2nd (GS/GPro from Marble City) - Golden Age if GPro
3rd (GS from Gold City) - Bulb 1/2 of Astronomy
4th (GE/GS from Paris) - Bulb Machinery if GE
5th (GS from Pigs) - Bulb 1/2 of Astronomy​

So, if either the 2nd (Marble) or 4th (Paris) GP is a GS (as opposed to a GPro/GE), then we really don't need that 5th GS since we'll already have 2 GSs for Astonomy. Is this correct?

To me, this implies that we should try for a GE from Paris for Machinery (i.e. run one engineer and the rest scientists). If we get a GPro from Marble, the Golden Age will speed up our 5th 100% GS from Pigs by about 5 turns.

 

[babybluepants]

Can we come up with some way of popping the 300gpp from a non-SR city, without a delay to the 750? At a glance, I don't see it, but I don't have time to mess around with a spreadsheet right now. Otherwise, I'm fine with the revolt, though it really sucks to do so many.

Edit: xpost - nvm my post

 

[mdy]

4th (GE/GS from Paris) - Bulb Machinery if GE

So, if either the 2nd (Marble) or 4th (Paris) GP is a GS (as opposed to a GPro/GE), then we really don't need that 5th GS since we'll already have 2 GSs for Astonomy. Is this correct?

To me, this implies that we should try for a GE from Paris for Machinery (i.e. run one engineer and the rest scientists). If we get a GPro from Marble, the Golden Age will speed up our 5th 100% GS from Pigs by about 5 turns.

I think we would be better off using this GP for machinery. Trebs are easily worth delaying our war for 5T. A GS or a GE are roughly equally good for this so we can afford to hire the more useful scientists.

An alternative use for a prophet would be to bulb theology so we could build 2 promotion units immediately.

We also want our second and third GP's to be generated by marble city and the capital as we would need to take different decisions based on what these GP's are before the fourth and fifth are generated.

 

[Mitchum]

We also want our second and third GP's to be generated by marble city and the capital as we would need to take different decisions based on what these GP's are before the fourth and fifth are generated.

That should be fairly straightforward to accomplish. We can delay the GPP in Gold City (by working the gold tile?) to ensure that Paris pops its GP first (i.e. our third GP).

 

[Dhoomstriker]

An AI wouldn't attack a fortified trireme with a loaded galley, correct?

I have no idea, but if it did, it would be a relatively suicidal attack, so it would take a high "courage" value for the Galley to roll. Monte might do it... I don't know enough about Ragnar's possible highest "courage" value to know for certain.

If we ended up with a wounded Trireme, we might "cultivate" such a wound by Healing to only 1.7 or 1.8 Health or so... AIs love to attack wounded units and a wounded Trireme might bait a fully-loaded Galley, but I don't know for certain.

What would happen if we just had a couple of triremes positioned to block his approach?

What's the proposal for empire defense? Do we just leave the east unguarded, Barb-Galleys-be-darned, with the thinking that Ragnar attacking us is more worrisome?

Or do we maintain a relatively-central position with the Trireme and rely on the fact that it usually takes a while for an AI that is "planning a war" to get ready to go, after which we'll rely more on our Work Boat's advance scouting (i.e. once the Work Boat explorer gets into position)?

If we get a GPro from Marble, the Golden Age will speed up our 5th 100% GS from Pigs by about 5 turns.

If we do get a Great Prophet, is there any way to squeeze out a 6th Great Person?

I mean, a Golden Age is nice when you have squares that offer base Hammers and/or Commerce, but we don't have a lot of squares that offer both.

In that case, a Golden Age's 100% Great-Person-Generation Bonus becomes more useful... but would it mostly just be used for Pig City or is there any way to possibly get a 6th Great Person? I would question the use of a potential Great Prophet on a Golden Age if it wouldn't allow us to at least "make back" the spent Great Person by getting us a 6th Great Person.

I think we have to revolt to OR now. A turn of anarchy can't possibly outweigh an extra GP.

Agreed.

At worst case, we end up with Confucianism spreading after having whipped a 2nd Confucian Missionary, which just means that one of our auxilliary Cities can get Confucianism, too. I'd probably then use our Missionary in Iron City, in order to expand its borders. We don't really have an extra Galley to consider sending a Missionary to an AI.

If we get auto-spread between the time that we revolt and are about to whip the Confucian Missionary, then we can probably just opt to throw away the invested Hammers from Gold City and instead keep the higher population in Gold City.

As for Ragnar I wouldn't worry too much for now as it will take him time to get a strike force ready. The only change I would make would be to build an extra trieme in stone city, and perhaps to send a scout down to Nidaros to give us some advanced warning if he comes after us.

Sounds fair... that means no 2nd Galley for a long time, as we'll be building a 3rd Trireme (which won't complete until well after my turnset anyway) but we only really wanted a 2nd Galley if the AIs were going to allow us to peacefully explore their lands.

As for a scout... do we want to send a land-based one or is a Work Boat going to be sufficient?


Also, should I position the Work Boat such that we'll see any attack from either his capital and southern City OR his northern City, or should we get up nice and close to his capital, and thus ignoring the northern City attack vector?



Speaking of turnsets... do we know who is "on deck" for the next turnset?

 

[babybluepants]

In my experience in these situations, the AI could attack with as little as 4 on 2 galleys, maybe even 2 on 1. I vaguely remember bestsss saying that the number of attack units required in directly proportional to number of cities, of which Ragnar has only 3 right now. Perhaps shyuhe remembers this bit better - it was in the team deity SG when Monte and Ragnar DOW'd.

We presumably don't wanna be emergency whipping in Marble, Gold or Paris, since they're generating GP's. More importantly, we're not even gonna be in Slavery for a 30t period.

In other words, I don't really like the "it takes a while to put together a strike force" approach. We'd do well to devise a more clear plan for defence that we know would work and wouldn't affect our GP plan, whether the attack happens in 10t or 20t+. Maybe that's just one more trireme build...

Golden age-ing the GP is fine. We don't actually really need a 4th GP, as far as I can tell - i.e. I think we can slow-tech everything we need, aside from 3 GS bulbs and Eng by the time we get a 750 GP (a GA would presumably speed both our base research and gpp up).

TS: Are you not playing out this entire game, Dhoom?