It would be more accurate to say we need to be at size 9 in gold city at the time we were planning to hire max specialists everywhere(though only the capital and marble would affect this plan). My figures assumed we would not stop working the gold until after we had revolted, so it should not affect the missionary whip.
Okay, let's put some turn numbers down here, so that it's clearer:
Right now, it is Turn 141.
On Turn 140 and on this turn, Turn 141, we will have hired an Engineer Specialist in Paris.
On Turn 143, we will 1-pop-whip in Gold City.
According to what I said here:
Dhoomstriker said:
Doing so gets us +2 Food compared to the screenshoted 1-pop-whip scenario, which brings us to 52/54 Food at Size 8.
which is a point to which you seem to agree with doing, we will work a Coast instead of the Gold Resource on Turn 143 after whipping.
On Turn 144, the Confucian Missionary will be completed, as will The Pyramids. The Revolts can happen (as part of your turnset).
Assuming that we're going to Revolt into Pacifism, Caste System, and Representation at the same time, that means that the Great Scientist needs to be used as a Lightbulb on Turn 144. Again, I will leave this item to your turnset, in case we want to change our minds or whatever.
There's a good chance that Taoism will "beat our Confucian Missionary" to a City that we want to spread Confucianism to, so there will be a small chance of failure. Oh well, we'll deal with it when the time comes.
Anyway, presumably, you will switch Civics right away, which means that Turn 144, Turn 145, and Turn 146 will be turns of Anarchy and Turn 147 will have us coming out of Anarchy.
On Turn 147, since we'll be 2 Food away from Size 9 in Gold City, it is simply a matter of working 3 Seafood + 5 Scientists.
In one turn, we will automatically grow to Size 9, at which point we will be working 3 Seafood + 6 Scientists.
According to your earlier claim, things will be a little bit tight in terms of beating Paris. Paris could use this extra bit of time to grow to Size 8. If we are still going to get our Great Person too soon, we can consider growing to Size 9 immediately. If we want to grow to Size 9, though, we will need +1 Health.
As of right now, Paris has 21 GPP and will get +3 from this turn, putting it at 24 GPP. On the turn that The Pyramids are built, it will get +2 GPP, putting us at a starting point of 26 GPP.
From that turn on (Turn 144 onwards), whenever we are out of Anarchy, we will be in Pacifism (assuming that Confucianism was successfully spread to Paris) and will gain +4 GPP per turn even without hiring any Scientist Specialists.
Paris will have 36/51 Food in its Foodbox at Size 7. I assume that you will switch both GH Mines to Coast squares in Paris, in which case it will take us 2 turns to grow to Size 8. Even if you keep working both Mines, it will still take us 2 turns to grow to Size 8, but with less Food for a possible growth to Size 9.
Anyway, let's assume that you will stop at Size 8 and will hire a bunch of Scientists in Paris. Growing to Size 9 would require us to use up our Work Boat on the Crab (a decision that I need to plan for RIGHT NOW, before I play), so we want to see if we can "get away" with just growing to Size 8 at the moment (possibly growing to Size 9 later, if Paris will still be generating GPP during the Golden Age period), with the intention of "not beating" Gold City.
If we grow to Size 8 while working the Coast squares, we'll be at 32/54 Food in Paris at Size 8. That situation leaves us EXACTLY 2 turns to grow to Size 9, which is why it probably is worth it to stop working the GH Mines as soon as The Pyramids are completed in order to gain the Food necessary to be able to make this quick growth to Size 9 (I can at least make that switch in the saved game, if I remember, before uploading the game, as citizen allocations are an action that you could always reverse later, if needed).
So, the question becomes: will we be okay with just 2 turns of growth in Paris and still be able to "win out" in Gold City or will we need to grow to Size 9 (or delay hiring Specialists in some other manner, such as working Mines) in order for Gold City to be first?
Okay, so here we go:
Turn 147 we come out of Anarchy and Paris has 26 GPP, while Gold City has 0.
On Turn 147, Gold City hires 5 Specialists, making it 5 * 3 * 2 = 30 GPP
On Turn 147, Paris is still growing to Size 8 but (assuming that it has Confucianism), it gets 2 * 2 = 4 GPP from The Pyramids
So, at the start of Turn 148, we have:
Paris = 26 + 4 = 30 GPP
Gold = 30 GPP
On Turn 148, Gold City reaches Size 9 and can hire 6 Scientists, which it does, giving it 6 * 3 * 2 = 36 GPP
On Turn 148, Paris is one turn away from Size 8, so it only makes 4 GPP
So, at the start of Turn 149, we have:
Paris = 30 + 4 = 34 GPP
Gold = 30 + 36 = 66 GPP
At that point, Paris can hire 5 Specialists at a growth rate of +1 Food per turn, but Gold City will already be beating Paris and will continue to pull ahead of Paris.
Therefore, Paris does not need to immediately grow to Size 9 and we don't need to use the Work Boat on a Crab... yet. We'll want to do so eventually, several turns prior to the Golden Age, so that Gold City will grow to Size 10 (remember that Gold City can grow 1 larger than Paris because Paris has 1 Unhealthiness from its Forge) and start hiring a 7th Scientist a few turns prior to launching the Golden Age.
With 8 turns of the Golden Age using 7 Scientists and 1 turn of the Golden Age possibly using 10 Scientists (or else add in another turn of 7 Scientists), with the last turn of the Golden Age being a "write-off" in that we won't be using Caste System or Pacifism, that means that of the 14 turns that we can spend hiring a 7th Scientist in Gold City, 8 of those turns (or 9 of them if we want 9 turns of 7 Scientists during the Godeln Age instead of 8 turns of 7 Scientists and 1 turn of 10 Scientists plus 1 starvation) will happen during the Golden Age, meaning that 14 - 8 = 6 or 14 - 9 = 5 of those turns must be "spent" working 7 Scientists prior to launching the Golden Age, meaning that we'll need to grow to Size 10 at least 6 turns or more earlier than the Golden Age starts, and when we grow to Size 10, we need to be able to have netted the Crab on that turn or earlier.
So, be sure to keep these details into account when planning your PPP.
But, for now, the answer is that Gold City can grow to and remain at Size 9, while Paris can grow to and remain at Size 8.
This fact means that Paris doesn't NECESSARILY have to switch the 2 GH Mines to Coast squares for the 2 turns of growth to Size 8, since, as Size 8, it will be growing at a rate of +1 Food per turn. However, every Food gained does mean getting to Size 9 faster, which means potentially hiring 6 Scientists per turn for a while at -1 Food per turn will happen earlier, thus it probably is worth working 2 Coast squares instead of 2 GH Mine squares for 2 turns after The Pyramids are completed.
We would need to hire some extra scientists before the GA in gold in order for GPP production there to beat the capital.
This part I don't understand, as it sounds like you are talking about Gold City's third Great Person (the Golden Age won't happen until after Gold City completes its second Great Person). Since you said that our "6th Great Person" (which I take to mean is really our 7th one, with the first one being used on Pacifism) will come out of Gold City, I don't see why Gold City would need to beat Paris at that point in time... Paris SHOULD beat Gold City if Gold City is going to produce our very last Great Person.
Another alternative would be to generate 2 GP's in the capital instead of gold.
It's possible. Gold City is hiring 6 Scientists at stagnant growth, while Paris is hiring 5 at +1 Food. Paris will have The Pyramids, which is worth 2/3rds of a Specialist.
Still, as the numbers that I just provided point out, Gold City will beat Paris to the generation of our empire's 2nd Great Person. Therefore, we'd have to "stall" Gold City's Great Person production in or for Paris to win that race.
Also, Gold City can make slightly more GPP than Paris, therefore it makes sense for Gold City to be the one to generate two Great People.
This involves much less fiddly MM, and would be slightly more beaker/hammer efficient as we could work the gold permenantly.
I disagree on the "less MM" comment, as per the numbers above.
As for being able to work the Gold, that part is true, but 1 Scientist producing 6 Flasks and 9 GPP (as long as the GPP will go to use--which they will if Gold City produces a total of 3 Great People--counting the first Great Scientist) offers more value than 3 Hammers and 7 Commerce on paper.
Now, yes, we'll miss not getting Hammers in a production-poor empire, but we'll definitely be faster (probably by a margin of several turns) to completing that last Great Person in Gold City than we would in Paris.
Therefore, I see no problem with hiring a Scientist in place of working the Gold Resource, as we will get more benefit out of the Scientist Specialist (100% use out of the Scientist's GPP) as compard to working the Gold Resource.
During the Golden Age, the Scientist will even offer +3 GPP for 9 turns, making it even stronger than before, but even without the Golden Age, it offers more total value than does the Gold Resource.
It would also allow us to generate our final GP 1-2T's earlier than we otherwise would.
I'm not sure how the math supports this point, unless you were assuming that Gold City would be working the Gold Resource for quite some time. If we "give up" on the idea of working the Gold Resource, then the opposite is true, and I believe by a margin more like 3 turns sooner.
It assumes all our GP generating cities have a religion.
Here's yet another reason why we shouldn't pin our hopes on Paris generating 2 Great People:
If Confucianism fails to spread there, and we have already chosen to delay Great Person Generation in Gold City (by working the Gold Resource, say, instead of hiring an extra Scientist), then we'll be behind.
As it is, if Confucianism fails to spread there, then we might still be okay if Paris only has to generate 1 Great Person, since we might get a lucky spread of Confucianism to one of Stone City or Iron City, which could then focus really hard on producing a Confucian Monastery + a Confucian Missionary, so that Paris could at least use Pacifism's bonus near the end of the Great-Person-Generation time period, perhaps during the Golden Age period, and still possibly be able to recover.
