SGOTM 14 - Plastic Ducks

[Deity player]

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I played until T82.

Unfortunately, there was no more religion spread. At least, not in our land, since...

Spoiler :

Our archer attacked the barbarian warrior, survived and is already healed on the hill again.

Spoiler :

And then these excelent news came on T82... Very good timing!!!

Spoiler :

The save is uploaded, the Wizard of Oz is still alive.

Turn Log

Turn 74, 1040 BC: Atlanta has been founded.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Chicago has been founded.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Seattle has been founded.

Turn 75, 1000 BC: You have discovered Sailing!

Turn 76, 975 BC: The borders of Atlanta have expanded!
Turn 76, 975 BC: The borders of Seattle have expanded!

Turn 77, 950 BC: The borders of Chicago have expanded!
Turn 77, 950 BC: Good Witch of the North adopts Organized Religion!
Turn 77, 950 BC: Good Witch of the East adopts Hereditary Rule!

Turn 78, 925 BC: Dorothy's Archer (3.30) vs Barbarian's Warrior (2.00)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Combat Odds: 97.4%
Turn 78, 925 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Dorothy's Archer is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 78, 925 BC: Dorothy's Archer has defeated Barbarian's Warrior!
Turn 78, 925 BC: Good Witch of the North converts to Confucianism!

Turn 80, 875 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Washington.
Turn 80, 875 BC: Seattle will grow to size 2 on the next turn.
Turn 80, 875 BC: The Great Lighthouse has been built in a far away land!

Turn 81, 850 BC: Seattle has grown to size 2.
Turn 81, 850 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Atlanta.
Turn 81, 850 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 30 ℤ for Atlanta.
Turn 81, 850 BC: Washington will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 81, 850 BC: New York will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 81, 850 BC: Atlanta will grow to size 2 on the next turn.
Turn 81, 850 BC: Chicago will grow to size 2 on the next turn.
Turn 81, 850 BC: Jeanne d'Arc (Great Prophet) has been born in a far away land!
Turn 81, 850 BC: Wicked Witch of the North adopts Organized Religion!

Turn 82, 825 BC: Washington has grown to size 6.
Turn 82, 825 BC: New York has grown to size 5.
Turn 82, 825 BC: Atlanta has grown to size 2.
Turn 82, 825 BC: Chicago has grown to size 2.
Turn 82, 825 BC: Good Witch of the South/Wicked Witch of the South is the worst enemy of Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East.
Turn 82, 825 BC: Wicked Witch of the East/Good Witch of the East is the worst enemy of Good Witch of the South/Wicked Witch of the South.
Turn 82, 825 BC: Good Witch of the South will trade Alphabet, Iron Working, Polytheism
Turn 82, 825 BC: Wicked Witch of the South will trade Alphabet, Iron Working, Polytheism
Turn 82, 825 BC: Will Sign Open Borders: Good Witch of the South, Wicked Witch of the South

 

[Deity player]

Oh, I forgot to show you one more food resource:

Spoiler :

 

[Deity player]

Updated test game. Note that
a) I didn't bother to put Mansa and Shaka itno the game,
b) NY has 1 culture in the test game (for some reason, this is imposible to decrease to 0).

 

[kossin]

Very good, looks my prediction of Shaka was correct... not that it took much seeing the other teams and knowing Mansa was in via Demographics. The extra seafood is also not very surprising, we were given stellar land by Neilmeister
I imagine SE in the early ADs will be very strong for those who choose to do that.

Stupid Confucianism...

Mansa will not take Mathematics for Alpha. -> they're researching Mathematics I think.
CoL+Math = Alpha+IW+Poly however
Or
CoL = Alpha+Poly

Math = IW+Poly

1st trade will speed up their research (maybe Calendar via trade)
2nd trade is probably more fair beaker-wise (less worst enemy trade) and we can get IW from another team.

The diplo is touchy:
East is WE of West
East is WE of South
South is WE of East

Anyway, let's vote on the trade and play another mini-set on this current turn. Hopefully we can find a way to OB with the east witches on this turn (without angering South/West too much) and also find Iron somewhere useful .

 

[Bebekija]

Well done Deity!

The lack of religion spreading is indeed a problem, we may have to build 2 missionaries, monastery is an even greater priority now.

The extra food resource is of limited use.

The available trades are good news, but I checked the possible trades and they're not very favorable.
Basically all they're willing to do is Alpha(+Poly) <-> CoL, or Alpha+IW <-> CoL+Maths.
Maths doesn't seem to interest them too much, so they must be very close to it.

It'll be nice to get IW this turn or the next one though, since our two workers in Canal are in the perfect position to chop the jungle and bring +1F to Canal.
We can always trade IW from other AIs, so we should try to make the deal for Alpha ASAP.
What's the downside of giving them CoL anyway? Losing the race to Philo? Do we even care for the religion?

 

[Bebekija]

Xpost with Kossin, ..., doesn't matter.

I vote for sticking to the Alpha trade. I'm sure we can get a more favorable deal for IW with North or West, and then make a nice gift to East so that they will OB. Besides, if we made the first deal, we would risk angering East because of worst enemy penalties, which is clearly counter productive.

Diplo penalties because of worst enemies may be a pain, we want to be able to trade maybe one other tech (Calendar/MC/..?), but we have to focus on OB with the East witches first and then make for the best with the 3 other teams.

 

[kossin]

Then again, OB with Asoka is worth 2C/t only so it's not a ridiculous loss.

 

[Bebekija]

^^
I'm not sure I understand.
Are you suggesting that OB with the East witches is not as beneficial as we thought it would be, so that we shouldn't focus too much and risk annoying the others?

I'm not sure...
The thing is we have absolutely no guarantee that the other AIs will be of any help. Ragnar excepted, we don't know their personalities, so we can't even try to guess which AI is going to research what, or if they'd be willing to trade it anyway. What if we don't OB with the East witches but can never trade for Calendar either?

 

[kossin]

Well 2C/t is not really big... Asoka only has 2 cities and we won't get a traderoute to Ragnar this easy.

T82~T104 it's worth (22-2)*2 = 40C which is a lot less than any of the techs we'd need to trade for. If we fall to Annoyed with teams, we have to gift EACH AI to improve diplo. And we want to keep the AIs backward so we don't face Longbows for a long time, so it's counterproductive.

Best case scenario would have been OB and path to North witches but then we wouldn't have met MM and Shaka

Anyway, I suggest trade for Alpha then re-evaluate. Let's hear everyone on this. It could be tested via WB a bit.

 

[Duckweed]

I would not do any trade for now, the most important concern is the location of Iron. If any city sit on an Iron, Washington is possible, we can't produce any warrior, which will totally screw our city growth. Moreover, Mansa and Shaka are worst enemy of others, they just start Math, so the gift value of Math to them is too high. My suggestion is to keep going until another team has Alpha or to the completion of mids. We can then reevaluate the build in Washington then.

 

[kossin]

That's a good point. We need what... 1 warrior for Canal, 1 for NY and 1 more for extra cities?

The more pressing is obviously for Canal.

 

[kossin]

Just a note about the test game: the holy confucian city has gone rogue so don't expect spreads unless you fix it. Somehow WB seems to remove the holy city whenever you remove a religion in one city.

Anyway, I'd like to be able to chop at least 1 missionary and have him completed on T91 ready to move out from Washington... it shouldn't be too hard to pull off but will delay Philly's improvements a bit. It'd be really nice if we didn't have to waste forests on this though and make settlers instead, stupid religion.

I had Pyramids done on IBT t87-88 if it's any help.

 

[Bebekija]

I would say that the warrior in Wash is more pressing than in NY, no? Wash needs to grow as much as possible, while NY can stay at size 6 without MP.

Aren't we concerned with the fact that the South witches may trade Alphabet around before we do if we delay this trade? It will cost us one good trading chip/gift.
Since diplo penalties seem to be the main reason why we wouldn't want to make the Alpha trade right away, is there a way to test/predict the effect that the Alpha+Poly trade would have on our relations with East? I don't think the test game is accurate up to diplo standings, is it?

 

[Snaaty]

i would do the alpha trade right now.

-> only the alpha trade (alpha + poly <-> col)

...

this will help us to better see what we are up to and where the other teams are heading researchwise. it might very well be that 1 team goes the aest route, another one the mc route, and the last one goes for callendar or construction or currency... ...and we would have to wait for the next team to get alpha quite a bit or face the fact mansa goes berserk trading it around...

...

with all other trades i agree with duckweed:

wait a bit and see where the ai´s are heading. if we agree on doing the alpha trade right now, please post an overview over the tech-situation of the ais right after doing so. we need to see which techs we will priorize in our research next... ...good point about the iron btw

 

[kossin]

I would say that the warrior in Wash is more pressing than in NY, no? Wash needs to grow as much as possible, while NY can stay at size 6 without MP.

Aren't we concerned with the fact that the South witches may trade Alphabet around before we do if we delay this trade? It will cost us one good trading chip/gift.
Since diplo penalties seem to be the main reason why we wouldn't want to make the Alpha trade right away, is there a way to test/predict the effect that the Alpha+Poly trade would have on our relations with East? I don't think the test game is accurate up to diplo standings, is it?

The Washington warrior is already done, we're left to produce the Canal one.

We also have a spare warrior spawnbuswting by Ivory and a spare Archer protecting our path to the center... so in theory we have enough MP after the current warrior in NY is finished. He'll be done in 4 turns...

Assuming we do have Iron under 1 city tile:
+4H in production
-20H in Military Police, problems

If we have Iron on a mine-able hill, then it doesn't really change anything as workers will be busy for a while anyway.

i would do the alpha trade right now.

-> only the alpha trade (alpha + poly <-> col)

...

this will help us to better see what we are up to and where the other teams are heading researchwise. it might very well be that 1 team goes the aest route, another one the mc route, and the last one goes for callendar or construction or currency... ...and we would have to wait for the next team to get alpha quite a bit or face the fact mansa goes berserk trading it around...

...

with all other trades i agree with duckweed:

wait a bit and see where the ai´s are heading. if we agree on doing the alpha trade right now, please post an overview over the tech-situation of the ais right after doing so. we need to see which techs we will priorize in our research next... ...good point about the iron btw

We should wait 4 turns to trade Alpha, I agree. Worst case, we'll have to trade something other than Math to acquire IW. Which isn't all that bad as we want the AIs to tech Calendar

 

[Bebekija]

The Washington warrior is already done, we're left to produce the Canal one.

Oops...my bad

Assuming we do have Iron under 1 city tile:
+4H in production
-20H in Military Police, problems

If we have Iron on a mine-able hill, then it doesn't really change anything as workers will be busy for a while anyway.

I realize that maybe I didn't make myself clear in my previous posts.
I never advocated making the Alpha+IW trade with the South witches, only the Alpha+Poly VS CoL, then evaluate the progress of the other AIs research wise.

We should wait 4 turns to trade Alpha, I agree. Worst case, we'll have to trade something other than Math to acquire IW. Which isn't all that bad as we want the AIs to tech Calendar

I still don't see the benefit of waiting 4 turns before making this trade. Is it only because of the diplo penalties?
If so, then let me rephrase my unanswered question above : is there a way to evaluate the "balance" of a deal, in order to try and predict the outcome of this deal in terms of diplo standings?

 

[Duckweed]

Alpha trade can be delayed until T91~92, for now, it does not give us anything beneficial rather than diplomatic hit. We want to limit the tech trade with AIs, except Math<->Alpha, all other trades help AIs get LB earlier. It should not be hard to see another team getting Alpha in short time. Either from self research or the very common Alpha<->Monarchy trade.

@Deity player

Some suggestions and thoughts for the next session

1. Turn on the city governor and emphasize food on the 3 new cities, you don't need to check those cities every turn.
2. No OB with southern witches as we don't get anything for now.
3. Send Toto back home
4. Stop when another team get Alpha (Not absolutely necessary since you can just do Math<->Alpha trade without further consulting), or to the completion of mids (IIRC IBT T88).
Edit: 5. Switch research from MC to Aes as it's a less favorable tech for AI, we will probably get some bonus on MC later.
6. The city management and worker micro in my test to T91 a few days ago, hope this can save you some time on the PPP.

Spoiler :

Washington (Mids->Monastery->Missionary, Tile priority: 1F3H1C>2F1H>2F2C>... before size 8, 8th citizen on 4H tile)

NY(Warrior->Gra->Bar Not very sure whether we should save 1 shared forest to Gra, Edit: I'm sure now that I want to save 1 shared forest for NY granary) 3~4 scientists to produce 2nd GS on T91.

Boston(Gra->LH->WB, 4th citizen on Oasis tile after Gra is done, 5th on gold and 6th on the riverside grasslnd), worker chops the current forest ->1S->Edit: forest of Phi

Phi(WB->Gra) Depends on whether there's a free religion, hire an artist 2~3 turns before the completion of WB

Atl (Warrior->Bar) 2 workers go to Wash to chop the forest on silk and nearby 3 forests. If we want to save 1 forest for NY, then chop the forest on GH 1st.

Sea (WB->Warrior->Bar) 2 workers go to Wash to chop the forest on Spice and another 2 forests, then irrigate the grassland tile for Boston

Chi (LH->Bar), workers chop->connect the silver->road the desert hill

 

[Bebekija]

Alpha trade can be delayed until T91~92, for now, it does not give us anything beneficial rather than diplomatic hit. We want to limit the tech trade with AIs, except Math<->Alpha, all other trades help AIs get LB earlier.

[...]

4. Stop when another team get Alpha (Not absolutely necessary since you can just do Math<->Alpha trade without further consulting), or to the completion of mids (IIRC IBT T88).

5. The city management and worker micro in my test to T91 a few days ago, hope this can save you some time on the PPP.

You seem to be certain that we will be able to make the Math<->Alpha trade. Yet the one team that we can trade with right now is unwilling to make that trade. So I'm not sure I share this confidence. But then again I don't have your experience in this game so I'm inclined to trust you on that once again.
In any case, I'll admit that the benefits of getting Alpha right now are kinda thin, so I won't make a big deal out of this.

Regarding city micro, why a warrior in Silk? It already has the former spawnbuster as MP. Is it for future cities (Dye?)?

 

[Duckweed]

You seem to be certain that we will be able to make the Math<->Alpha trade.

I'm not sure, but the chance should be high, the Col<->Alpha trade opportunity still exists until T91~92.

Yet the one team that we can trade with right now is unwilling to make that trade. So I'm not sure I share this confidence. But then again I don't have your experience in this game so I'm inclined to trust you on that once again.
In any case, I'll admit that the benefits of getting Alpha right now are kinda thin, so I won't make a big deal out of this.

That's the point, no benefit and only harm, why don't want to do the trade.

Regarding city micro, why a warrior in Silk? It already has the former spawnbuster as MP. Is it for future cities (Dye?)?

we need 1 for Phi, 1 for for NY, 1 for canal, that's 3 from NY,Silk, and canal.

 

[Deity player]

@Duckweed
Thanks for your worker micro, this will surely be useful.

@all
I don't have enough time today (RL can't wait ) but I will try to post the next PPP tomorrow.

I am for waiting with the tech trades (this was a great idea btw ).