SGOTM 16 - Fifth Element

[BLubmuz]

We might be fine as long as we make sure that the cities not running a artists does not pop things or we get a great prophet. I think the great prophet threat is the largest one.

The great prophet is a real danger. Do we want to go the safe route and plan to align our victory with a second great artist from Gergovia or hope we do not get a great prophet?

A GPro is the biggest disgrace we can have: no corps, bo culture, useless. But only Orleans has a chance for a GPro, i think. I can give more details later.

Folket: even without the final GA from Gergovia, we'll still be ok with one GPro or GSpy and one other non-artist.

Not clear to me how i can have screw Ger by running all the possible artists. I carefully followed the spreadsheet. And i'm using it now to verify i'm on table.

In any case, i'm gonna play now. I hope until 257. Then we can have more news.

 

[Shaandore]

Not clear to me how i can have screw Ger by running all the possible artists. I carefully followed the spreadsheet. And i'm using it now to verify i'm on table.

In any case, i'm gonna play now. I hope until 257. Then we can have more news.

Compare the two specialist startegies:

36 (shrink) 35 34 33 32 31-> 201 total artists in 6 turns.
35 (no shrink) 36 35 34 33 32 -> 1 more artist after turn 3. Or 205 total artists in 6 turns. (Actually one more artist on every turn after t3)

By starving on the first turn, you lost a pop. Starving is most effective when food bin is empty (we don't lose food from the food bin). We could have used our initial food bin to stay at size and work 35 artists, starting the shrinking next turn with 36->35->34 ...

But it's not a problem, most likely we won't need that second artist after all.

Good luck!!!

 

[BLubmuz]

turn 257, to finish.

War is goin' smoothly, not a loss. Always some MG which intercept, that's all.
Qin sent 2 frigates near Rennes and i already sunk 1 with a destroyer, but it's out of moves and our net is in danger. I think it's better build a WB, just in case.

Razed Ghuangzou, inland city: 4 tanks and a gunship... did i told you i like gunships?

Now, i got my stack of tanks ready to take Beijing, with an injured HA defending... ialready killed the others. Are we sure we want to raze it? Notre Dame, HG, GW... none of them obsolete. I know the problem is the population, we can settle our cities around it, there's plenty of room.

Orleans popped a GA and so Ger. Now, according to the spreadsheet, it's the turn of Isca. I have Rheims first, so i must fire 2 artists.

About Orleans, if it can keep 1655 cpt (and i see any problem to that), it's slightly over 42K on turn 265, so 2 bombs are enough. I'm keeping the slider 30% culture/70% science with less than 100 deficit. I got over 600 in the bank and more taking cities, so FT1 is assured by turn 265. I'm running a lot of specialists and starving all our cities to be prepared to lose a good number of population.

War weariness start to strike along with emancipation. I need a theatre in Paris.

Now i got 2 questions and i'm on the fence for both:
1) keep or raze Beijing?
2) start the UN as planned and take the risk to use the first vote for something like trade routes and wait 5 (or 6?) more turns or wait to see if we have all our GAs? It won't change much, i think... all the GA farms are polluted, ranging from 84% to 93%.
Good chances, but not a guarantee.

Another minor question: is it worth to use our GAs to bomb right now? at least 1-1. We even save in maintenance.

Then, i got a fresh GG in Elephantine settle for sure. Where? in a LC or in a military city?

 

[BLubmuz]

Compare the two specialist startegies:

36 (shrink) 35 34 33 32 31-> 201 total artists in 6 turns.
35 (no shrink) 36 35 34 33 32 -> 1 more artist after turn 3. Or 205 total artists in 6 turns. (Actually one more artist on every turn after t3)

By starving on the first turn, you lost a pop. Starving is most effective when food bin is empty (we don't lose food from the food bin). We could have used our initial food bin to stay at size and work 35 artists, starting the shrinking next turn with 36->35->34 ...

But it's not a problem, most likely we won't need that second artist after all.

Good luck!!!

I see. But to generate the amount requested by the spreadsheet i needed all the possible specs. In fact i verified the following turn and i was on table. Thus there were something wrong there. In some case i should run more specialists than the population i have, even counting the free one and the one from the salon. At that point the best i can do is to run all the pop i have. Please verify yourself with the save on the server.

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

Now i got 2 questions and i'm on the fence for both:
1) keep or raze Beijing?

If you can be sure of the pop count, that at least HG gives a +1 health. Does the +1 pop factor into the GA equation in Ger?

2) start the UN as planned and take the risk to use the first vote for something like trade routes and wait 5 (or 6?) more turns or wait to see if we have all our GAs? It won't change much, i think... all the GA farms are polluted, ranging from 84% to 93%.
Good chances, but not a guarantee.

Can't we always stop the UN one short of completion and watch the GA's come in for a few turns? Or is it a one turn build?

Another minor question: is it worth to use our GAs to bomb right now? at least 1-1. We even save in maintenance.

Seems reasonable to me.

Mine in red! Smash 'em dead!

 

[Folket]

I would prefer to raze Beijing. If your population is below 66% you may keep it.

Build the UN as planned. We can afford two specialists being wrong. Chances of three non artists or two great prophets are very small. If we are unlucky we take a hit for 6 turns, but that would not be the end of the world.

Theatre in Paris, will that pay for itself? Is it not better to just build research?

How much pop do we need to starve? How many squares do we need for domination?

 

[BLubmuz]

ok, some numbers before to proceed.
Population
Hammu's population is dropped to 69, so we have to subtract 34 to the pop show in the alert. (I don't understand how it's dropped, but it's not important)
Now we have 775-34=741. 775 is 64.69%, which goes to 65.73 if we raze Beijing. Or to 66.19 if we keep it. But our actual pop is 741, 61.85%.
Land
We have 665, 58.23% Here there's a problem:
- Chengdu will go out of revolt in 2 turns and it will give the full 21 tiles in 2 turns.
- Kaifeng will go out of revolt in 3 turns and it gives 4 tiles in 2 more turns, or 8 if we raze Hangzou
- Xian will go out of revolt in 7 turns and it gives 3 tiles in 2 more turns, or 8 if we raze or keep Beijing, which counts 1 more tile.

so 665+21+4+3 is 693. with more 4 and 5 we arrive to 702.
The real problem is that after the raze of Guangzhou, Qin is willing to capitulate. But if i accept i hit the dom limit because he's still @ 14%, so we add another 7%.
I think i just stop the attack, withdraw the troops in our lands and sue for peace when it's time to win. Or i can take Beijing, keep it and stop. Our settlers are useless.

 

[Shaandore]

I would continue warring. He might not want to capitulate later due to some stupid things (happened to me before). We should prepare the settlers and go with the original plan. Raze Beijing.

 

[Folket]

If you stop threatening him he might not be willing to capitulate. Keep Beijing and then just start killing off his units. On the turn of the vote we make him vassal and plant cities.

Either he capitulates and we get somewhat better score or we win by planting cities.

Will we be able to get his votes if he capitulates on the turn of the vote?

I do not trust we can get chinese votes so you need to make sure we can stay close but below the votes required for UN victory. i.e. 34 votes below so that hammurabi can push us over.

At the moment we only have 65% of the votes? You will need to grow or cities some then. Less if you keep beijing.

In other words. Keep beijing and make sure we have enough space for our settlers in case China do not want to capitulate when the time comes.

Also there is a risk that hammurabi will send settlers. I guess we need a margin in both directions. i.e. enough margin so that hammurabi does not push us above domination and enpough margin so that hammurabi settling does not prevent us from settling our settlers and get to domination.

 

[BLubmuz]

I would continue warring. He might not want to capitulate later due to some stupid things (happened to me before). We should prepare the settlers and go with the original plan. Raze Beijing.

If you stop threatening him he might not be willing to capitulate. Keep Beijing and then just start killing off his units. On the turn of the vote we make him vassal and plant cities.

OK, i will follow your directions.

Spoiler :

 

[BLubmuz]

On a more serious comment, i have already thought to the chance of Hammu send settlers. I'm not sure, but i doubt he does with a war in progress. Also, if we don't even take Beijing, he won't have land to settle. He's got a rifle and a WE 2 turns away from it, but if we withdraw Qin has time to bring reinforcements.

If we take it he can have some land, not much i think, but he hardly send a settler with a war.

I think the best thing to do is withdraw and kill some unit from time to time using gunships. In case we can take the island city to gain another Sushi resource. We already have the galleons loaded and move the bombers in position is not a problem.

Now, we need to make our bet. UN now?

 

[Shaandore]

Yes, we should build UN now for t265 victory. Our chance of not getting enough GAs is less than 1/6 thus the expected value of our end date is better this way compared to waiting one more turn and waiting for the final GPerson.

 

[Folket]

Definatly do not withdraw. That will certainly make Qin unwilling to capitulate. Let him bring reinforcements. That will give you units to kill and keep the war score high.

It is a risky gambit to not capture more lands from qin. Can someone confirm whether we will have his vote in the UN vote i we capitulate him the same turn.

 

[BLubmuz]

Definatly do not withdraw. That will certainly make Qin unwilling to capitulate. Let him bring reinforcements. That will give you units to kill and keep the war score high.

It is a risky gambit to not capture more lands from qin. Can someone confirm whether we will have his vote in the UN vote i we capitulate him the same turn.

Assuming to manage the 2 LCs by turn 265.
Vote on turn 264 - actually IBT turn 263/264 (it's 264 but before you can do anything) - victory screen turn 265.
If we capitulate him on turn 264 the victory screen can tell us we won by Domination or by Diplo on turn 265. He must vote for us, since turn 264 begins with the human (team 1) and the AI will follow. IIRC ZPV already confirmed this... ZPV?

So you suggest to keep the stack where it is and continue to kill reinforcements until we see it in danger to be captured by Hammu? I think it's doable.
Or i can take it and randomly kill units with gunships. I can also take the island city.

In any case i won't raze it. We do not need to spam settlers if Qin capitulate. And even if he arrives to rifles our units are so far superior that doesn't matter.

Let's wait for ZPV comments, then i start play again. And to be safe i'll PM Alan about the double win.

This is the message i just sent to AlanH

Spoiler :

Hi Alan,
i ask this just to be safe.
We can - probably - win both domination and diplo in the same turn. If we get domination the turn of the vote, then the result of the vote it's diplo we have a victory screen with a random VC between the 2. But both count for the objective of this game, correct?

Thanks in advance,
ciao

I was forgetting. I made a calculation for Gergovia and by turn 265 it needs 20936 culture to achieve Legendary. so 6 bombs. I confirm we need only 2 bombs for Orleans. I ask it again: can i use 1 GA for each city immediately?

 

[ZPV]

It does not matter if we win by domination or diplo. We will still get the other victory too.

Don't put the house on Qin capitulating. There's a small chance he vassals to someone else, so we have to be able to trigger domination without him. Yes, if we vassal him, he will vote for us if he is not a candidate.

Sure, a culture bomb in both cities is fine.

 

[BLubmuz]

It does not matter if we win by domination or diplo. We will still get the other victory too.

Don't put the house on Qin capitulating. There's a small chance he vassals to someone else, so we have to be able to trigger domination without him. Yes, if we vassal him, he will vote for us if he is not a candidate.

Sure, a culture bomb in both cities is fine.

mmhh... yes, we need to keep this in mind. But he's not at war with any other and until he's got his original Capital i doubt. In any case, i'll keep the stack at the doors of Beijing and i'll move to take the island city.

If we could have foreseen this war was so easy, it'd be better have wait 2-3 more turns before launch the attack. But of hindsight is paved the hell.

This is the answer to my PM from AlanH

The objective calls for you to meet the conditions for two VCs by the time you make your final save. You can only ever get one victory screen in a game as far as I know, so the second one will never show up in-game. It has to be assessed by kcd_swede, and as long as you meet the requirements, it will count. We don't care which one you hit first on the victory screen.

Playing now, i got enough input and i'm impatient to see our next GPeople.

 

[BLubmuz]

Real time news update:
turn 258, Isca popped a GA, now sleeping in Ger.
Took the island city. No losses, as usual.
I forgot i has a destroyer just built, which took care of the 2nd frigate. I also sunk a galleon.

Qin is 4 turns away from AL, but he still lacks rifling. Playing cat and mouse at Beijing, now Hammu's ministack is in position. no chances for them there're 2 LBs and a treb added to the HA.

 

[Shaandore]

Good! may the GA luck shine on your end turn button!

 

[BLubmuz]

turn 259 real time report:
Another GA is born in Rheims, next is Tolosa, then Vienne.
UN built as planned, we're Sec Gen.

Hammu has AL, goin' for Fascism. Qin is always willing to capitulate. Hammu's rifle just survived, but it's there.

Our population is 733 and the Diplo victory is 737.
- If i raze Beijing we don't grow, but the threshold will lowered to some 726, so we're 7 over.
- If i keep it, we grow to 755, so i need to lose some 25 pop to be safe, maybe more. Not a great effort. We have the GA cities which will lose 1 pop turn and i can easily starve many cities. But if i vassal Qin the turn before the vote, i can liberate it.

Another question: hitting F1, i can grant indepence to all our "other continent" cities, to form a new nation. We can also use this option on turn 263, just before the vote.

Stealth is due next turn, then FT1 in 3 with culture @40 and research @60.

Goin' to kill some unit in Beijing.

 

[BLubmuz]

Turn 260, report and stop until input from you.

First off, please look at this screenie

Spoiler :

It seems hat the vote will be on turn 263, so ZPV was wrong... or not?

Another GA from Tolosa, next is Vienne!

Babylon is in revolt, despite i'm building troops there and chances below 4%. Spreaded hindu to Dur (t.259) and to Bab (right now). Dur is out chances of revolt now.

I can take Beijing and Hangzhou at any time. Just playing cat and mouse. Qin is still willing to capitulate.

We must keep in mind that we can always liberate the cities to our vassals, with F1 or in the diplo screen.

Your comments on the above screenie are important.

Edit
even rising the culture 2 or 3 turns earlier won't have changed the situation if the vote arrives on turn 263 instead of 264, not enough GAs and not another Gperson for the Corp. It's hard to play cat and mouse until turn 264, go figure if we can hit the diplo vote on turn 268 Qin has time to arrive to AL+rifling. Protective infantry is not a parkwalk.
Why 268? Because if the first vote is on turn 263, next one will be 5 turns later.

I think that i can have a better sight if i bomb 3 GA in Ger. Then the bright side is that if we're forced to turn 268, we don't need another bomb in Orleans. It can reach Legendary on turn 266. Same for Ger. We need only 4 bombs on turn 266. This is why i'm keeping 100% culture and FT1 is still due in 2.