I've finally played now, lots of RL stuff came in the way...
>>The Save<<
The RNG god deserted me, but I'm not that easily beaten. Here's the full turnlog:
Preflight (350 BC):
Move the settlers towards their intended locations.
Pull two horses from Iznik to GreenDot.
MM: Looks good, thanks again CF!
Deer can't finish the worker in 1, it must be at +3fpt
after growth, switch one citizen to oyster.
HotB ->sword, Karakorum ->sword.
Olive will grow to 6 and need an MP next turn, steal the one from Grad.
Change Canal City to scientist, Iznik to taxman, in case Iznik decides to flip.
Renaming spree

Canal City -> Smuez Canal
New Ta-Tu -> Smurkzacabana
IBT:
Sword enters LMin from SW, attacks our stack and kills a sword, ducks back under cover at 2/3.
Sword enters Utica from S.
Numid moves to mountain SW of LMin.
Mongol boat heading south from Tabriz.
Republic -> Literature, no revolt.
Heim settler->settler
Istanbul builds Lighthouse!
Turn 1 (330 BC):
SmurkZentral founded (great name, thanks) at GreenDot.
Smurkzcapulco founded S of the great lake.
Elite* archer kills Carthagian archer, he would have had the road to reach and strike at us.
Move troops according to plan. 4 swords and 2 archers on the hills, 2 more swords spread out to the W, and 6 horses that are within striking range. I expect 2 Numids and one sword as defense judging from the counter attacks. That means ~97% chance of winning. I expect one counter from within Utica though, and taking one sword out of it means ~94% chance. Good enough for me.
MM: Move tiles around, too many to write them all down here. Olive now makes 10spt!
Karakorum had grown, forgot about that noble Viking citizen, but as it turns out the Viking is added first in the list! Karakorum has 1 content Viking, 1 content Mongol and 1 unhappy Mongol before the whip. Only the two content remain afterwards.
IBT:
Sword from LMin attacks our vSword, loses flawlessly and promotes our sword to elite!
Sword from Utica attacks our eSword, we win at 1/5!
Numid moves closer.
Mongols want to talk. Check what he will give, still no towns. Get lost!
Mongol archer from Kazan jumps out and attacks our eHorse protecting the worker gang!
Luckily our horse wins at 1/5, seems the RNG is with me this turn.

Borders of Kazan expand.
Karakorum sword->worker.
Deer worker->worker.
No cascade of the Colossus!
Turn 2 (310 BC):
Consult the combat planner, still have 94%+ chance of winning.
Catapults fail to do any damage.
Battle for Leptis Minor:
vSword vs rNumid, defender at 2/3.
vSword vs rNumid, defender at 2/3.
vSword vs 2/3 Numid, defender to 3/4.
vSword vs 3/4 Numid, wins and promotes to 3/5.
eSword vs 2/3 Numid, wins flawlessly and exposes 2/3 sword.
vHorse vs 2/3 sword, wins at 2/4 and captures, one resistor of one.
Still have 5 horse and one sword ready to strike Kazan.
Battle for Kazan:
vSword vs rSpear, wins flawlessly.
vHorse vs rSpear, wins and promotes to 3/5, one more spear!
vHorse vs rSpear, retreats without doing damage.
vHorse vs rSpear, retreats without doing damage.
vHorse vs rSpear, dies and defender at 1/3.
vHorse vs 1/3 spear, wins and promotes to 4/5, captures with one worker.
Move 3 swords and 3 horses onto the Tabriz iron.
Stupidly miss that Karakorum is next to a river, and two settler are moved to places they were not at all meant to go.
Upgrade the warrior to sword in River.
Smurkz-am-zee founded W-SW of Smurkzacabana (New Ta-Tu). Four spots on the ring down, four to go.
IBT:
Carthaginian sword dashes from Utica to attack our eSword, once again we win, this time at 4/5.
The Numid heads towards Smurkz-am-zee, was I too quick in settling?
Delphia horse->sword
HotB sword->sword
Resistance ends in Kazan
Food worker->worker
Olive galley->sword
Turn 3 (290 BC):
Battle for Tabriz:
vHorse vs rSpear, wins at 1/4.
vHorse vs rSpear, defender promotes to 2/4.
eSword vs 2/4 spear, wins flawlessly and razes, one worker.
Rest move back out to road, settler moves in.
Sliders to 90%, Lit in 2.
IBT:
Ottomans want peace. Nah.
Carthaginian archer and Numid towards Amzee.
Mongol galley turn back north.
Grad sword->horse.
Resistance ends in LMin.
Kal worker->worker
Turn 4 (270 BC):
Workers connect CftS with its Ivory. We can now sustain size 6 towns without MPs!
Indianaposmurkz founded at RCP 4 from Delhi near Albu.
Peace with Mongols for Construction and WM. Could have done that last turn but forgot it. They know nothing of the map that we didn't already know.
Sliders to 3.7.0 with one scientist for Lit in 1.
IBT:
Ottos send an archer and a horse towards Iznik. I had an undefended settler there, luckily the horse didn't have another move!
Carthaginians enclose Amzee, 1 archer and 2 Numids now.
We learn literature, go for Poly.
Heim settler->settler
Deer worker->worker
Nan horse->settler
River sword->horse
Turn 5 (250 BC):
vSword vs Otto rHorse, horse retreats, sword at 2/4.
eHorse vs Otto rArcher, wins at 2/5.
vHorse vs Otto 1/3 horse, promotes to 5/5.
vHorse vs Carthage rArcher, promotes to 3/5.
Tromsmurkz founded on the ruins of Tabriz.
Cape Smurkz founded at the cape near the dyes.
[Save game for the night, got further than I expected!]
Ok, time to go warring again. The eHorse near Kazan would need one more turn to heal, but I don't want to wait, I'll bring it in right away.The sword guarding the path to the Sages moves back one step, don't want to draw counters just now, and he can still reach his destination next turn.
Move a spear from Amzee to cover the wounded eHorse from Numids.
Units built now in the core won't reach the front until it's all over. I start moving them towards Rusicade instead.
MM:
Switch HotB and River to Settlers. Olive can finish a sword and still make a settler within 4. Change all temples to libraries in the nothern core.
Sliders to 0.10.0 again, will easily get Poly in 4.
IBT:
Otto archer attacks 2/5 horse, horse retreats without doing damage.
vNumid vs rSpear in Amzee, we win at 2/3.
vNumid vs eArcher* in Amzee (why did he come up?), Numid at 1/3. Rest in peace, Friend of the Tall Ones.
Another Numid comes in from LMagna.
Food worker->worker
Olive sword->settler
Turn 6 (230 BC):
eHorse vs 1/3 Numid, wins at 4/5. Move spear to cover.
eHorse vs Otto rArcher, wins at 1/5, runs into cover in Iznik.
Vladivosmurkz founded on the northern pink dot, next to the sheep.
Move in 4 swords, 4 cats and 1 horse to the iron by Utica.
Move in swords, horses and spears on forest near LMagna, will stay there one turn and then march, strike two turns from now.
IBT:
Carthaginian rSword comes from fog to attack rSpear covering eHorse, spear wins at 2/3.
Numid heads back towards Carthage.
Delphia sword->horse
Beard settler->lib
Resistance in Iznik finally ends!
Smuez Canal galley->galley
LMagna has dropped to size 1.
Turn 7 (210 BC):
Battle for Utica:
4 cats at Utica do 1 hp dmg.
eSword vs rNumid, defender at 2/3.
eSword vs 2/3 Numid, defender promotes to 3/4.
eSword vs 3/4 Numid, wins at 4/5.
4/5 horse vs 2/3 Numid, defender promotes to 2/4.
vHorse vs 2/4 Numid, wins flawlessly, Utica destroyed, but with major losses
Move more troops towards LMagna, move units from choke as well.
Finally whip galley in Iznik.
IBT:
Spot C. Numid/settler running around near old Utica.
Grad horse->horse
Deer worker->worker
Inzik galley->whatever
Albu cat->lib
Atroid galley->galley
Turn 8 (190 BC):
Move in troops towards LMagna.
Misclick and one vHorse attacks prematurely, retreats after doing 1 hp dmg.

The interesting thing is that the Numid is alone, none behind him to cover!
Just realized that Carthage has Republic, for how long? They are in Anarchy in any case.
Sci to 90%, Poly in 1.
Abandon Iznik, resettle one tile SW as Ismurkz.
Sell granary in Heim.
IBT:
Otto spear comes from the north, Otto galley sails out in the sea, but that's dangerous!

Numid/settler mill around.
We learn Poly, set research to Currency.
Heim settler->whatever.
Nan settler->horse
River settler->horse
Olive settler->horse
Kal worker->worker
Carthage becomes Republic.
Turn 9 (170 BC):
Join 4 workers to Zentral, now size 7. That should do the trick.
Abandon Heim, palace ends up in Zentral as calculated. Resettle New Smurkzheim.
Battle for LMagna:
vSword vs rNumid, wins at 1/4 and auto-razes, one slave captured.
The rest head towards Carthage.
Arizmurkz settled S L.Minor.
eHorse vs Otto rSpear, wins flawlessly.
4 cats take 1 hp from Numid guarding settler.
eSword vs 2/3 Numid, numid at 1/3.

vSword vs 1/3 Numid, wins at 3/4.
Revolution! 5 turns anarchy, that should give us enough time to finish off Carthage.
IBT:
Nothing. No counters, nothing built (obviously), no nothing! Alright, the Otto galley moved, but otherwise nothing...
Turn 10 (150 BC):
Battle for Rusicade:
vHorse vs rNumid, dies, defender at 2/3, exposes an unfortified numid.
vHorse vs rNumid, dies, defender at 1/3.
vSword vs 2/3 Numid, wins at 1/4.
vSword vs 1/3 Numid, wins at 2/4, auto-razes and sinks a galley.
Leave almost all other units unmoved.
Our forces are moving in on Carthage and Edrine.

Will post more hand-off thoughts later.