keith: two questions. 1.) If you don't contact a civ immediately after meeting one of their units or cities, do you still have the ability to initiate diplomacy in F4 later? Even if one of their units or cities is not currently visible? (I don't know; I've always initiated diplomacy at first contact before) 2.) If you haven't officially contacted them, are you sure we still get the research reduction for known techs?
Estimating Tech research turns: Pottery (10), Masonry (25), Writing (30), Literature (20) is 85 turns from now. (These might be a bit pessimistic). Roughly 450 BC. If we get reduced research costs, this might take 15 turns off or so, making it about 750 BC. Everyone else will be Middle Ages for sure; if we don't get GreatLibrary we are totally hosed!! I assume the upshot of this is to build a big Knight Army and stomp around; at this point we don't know where Horses or Iron are; the AI will surely have them connected and be producing units.
Rome could build a Granary, and then Great Library, in about 55 turns from now. (It's almost the same time with or without the Granary, and I'm assuming for this example that Pottery is researched next.) Another city, assuming it gets some Joined Workers to help it along, might build it in 60-65 turns from date of founding (assuming size 6 with 2 MP's, 1 Luxury and about 20%Luxury tax to keep the city out of CD.) We're right at turn 20. I don't advocate using Rome or city#2 to build the GLib, so it will be about turn 40 before this city get's built. Say Turn 100 to turn out GreatLib, or about 550 BC.
IMO, this is too much delay. For every city we build, every local AI will also build one. I think the key to this game is learning IronWorking, finding the Iron and controlling it. That way, we build our Legionaires, and the AI gets Archers/Spearmen/Warriors and Horsemen (although we can try to control horses too.) I don't mean hook up every source, but make it real hard for the AI to do so. Start the wars soon (but not too soon, and in order; I'm not totally masochistic

), just to harass the AI, slow their research down, make them waste units coming to us. Then build up to take the war to them. After we control our continent, then we really develop it, saving up for future invasions. (It would really suck if M-B changed the GOTM to be Pangea!)
I'd suggest research of IronWorking (say 30 turns to do), maybe trade with them then or shortly before (getting Pottery), set up city#2 as the Settler factory (2 games within radius, eventually) and Rome as the military builder (Barracks, then Vet Archers/Warriors for a while.) We are Militaristic; I'd set up city #3 or #4 to pre-build for GreatLib and see if we can generate a GreatLeader to make the job easier. Assuming we can control the local AI, don't take them all the way out; leave them a city or two, still at war, which will generate an occasional Archer that we can try to get a GLeader from. At that point (if we get to that point) we can take them out anytime, and we might get to rush a bunch of Wonders that way.