Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

[2metraninja]

Damn! I am still afraid they will try to steal Pyramids from us...

Schwedagon is another interesting possibility. They might want it for Pacifism to grow their so much needed GS. Good job, SC.

 

[Caledorn]

Damn! I am still afraid they will try to steal Pyramids from us...

Schwedagon is another interesting possibility. They might want it for Pacifism to grow their so much needed GS. Good job, SC.

We can claim the pyramids right away if we want to. They have given us the opportunity, so we can.

 

[YossarianLives]

SilentConfusion, would it also be possible to track the city sizes of all the visible cities on each turn, to give us a better idea when score increases can be attributed to pop points? That should help us also figure out when the points come from land increases, instead.

I've been meaning to mention that UCiv is actually only putting 1-2 EP's against us each turn, not their full four like I had stated previously. We continue to put all our EP's against UCiv. It might be good to think about putting some of those on CP until we can get their charts. It would probably be best if we do this under some agreement with them. As SilentConfusion observed, their Espy ratio is starting to sky-rocket since they began building Sacrificial Alters around T80, so their EP potential is much greater than ours.

Ok, on to the demo-hacking!

Turn 101
This was mostly a quiet turn, with lots of small score increases for pop growths. There were no land increases back on T81, so we know for sure that these were all for pop.

CivFr grew 1 pop

UCiv grew 2 pop

RB grew 1 pop

CP grew 1 pop, then performed a 2-pop whip

WPC settled a new city. This makes a measly 6 total cities in their entire empire.

Apolyton grew 2 pop, then had massive score decreases that could only have been a pair of 4-pop whips! That some serious application of the whip. Let's see what they do over the next couple turns.

Turn 102
This turn is more confusing. There were 30 new land tiles added on T82, so that is 21 points for land this turn. Of course, we don't know which teams got land points, which got pop points, and which got a combo of the two...

CivFr got 14 points. This is probably 12 for a Classical tech, plus two for pop. If I'm correct, then this is their 5th classical tech, their last having been researched on T99. That's a pretty good research rate if this is the case. They then performed a 1-pop whip.

UCiv had a massive 24-point jump. That's got to be a Classical tech for 12, and then another 12 for some combo of pop + land. This would be their 4th classical tech.

RB got 10 points for 4 pop growths (or some combo of pop + land), then performed a 1-pop whip.

CP got 14 points, again probably a Classical tech and one pop growth. This would be their 4th classical tech, including their Oracled CoL back on T67.

Spaniards got 19 points, probably a Classical tech and some combo of pop + land. Looks like their tech rate is finally starting to pick up a little, since their last Classical tech was just on T96.

Germans got 7 points for pop + land, then they settled their 8th city. They're really starting to pull ahead of WPC once more.

Apolyton got 5 points, most likely for 2 pop to replenish those two poor cities that got 4-pop whipped last turn. But then they go ahead and perform another brutal pair of 4-pop whips. Where are they even getting cities big enough to support all this whipping? They just finished a Classical tech on T100, right before they starting laying into all these whips. I don't think they could be whipping an army (the unit would need to cost more than 90 hammers, or they would need to be dry-whipping them). I'm thinking they maybe completed Metal Casting, and are now whipping their forges? That's a strategy that makes sense to me. I had predicted it earlier when RB was going through a bunch of 2-pop whips, and I was wrong then, but I feel a little more confident about it this time around. At any rate, this massacre of 16 of their pop in 2 turns is what has allowed us to surpass them in score. We're now #3, in case anyone hadn't noticed!

Turn 103
That brings us to this current turn. It's not over yet, so there could still be activity. For example, we haven't settled our isthmus city yet. But here's where we are so far.

CivFr got 13 points, probably just for pop + land (there were 32 new land tiles on T83, so lots of land points to distribute this turn). They then performed a 1-pop whip.

UCiv got 7 points for pop and / or land

RB got 6 points, most of which were from the land they gained by settling their 8th city on T83. Maybe this also includes points for one pop, but probably it's all land. They then performed a pair of 3-pop whips.

CP got 2 points for pop or land

Spaniards got 5 points for pop and / or land, then performed a pair of 2-pop whips.

WPC got 10 points for pop + land

Apolyton got a 14 point increase, which is enough to include a classical tech, but is probably (hopefully) just pop + land. They then performed a 3-pop whip. That brings them to a total of 19 pop whipped away in 3 turns. They're definitely up to something...


So, I wasn't even trying to make any guesses what all those classical techs could be. Does anyone have any ideas?

 

[SilentConfusion]

Focal Point is officially at 258 hammers, ruling out The Great Wall. Either Pyramids, Schwedagon Paya, or a wonder with resource bonus that I haven't thought of.

Perhaps we should try claiming Pyramids as they gave us the opportunity before. Say we won't build HG if you don't build 'Mids. They might still want fail-gold if it is 'Mids.

 

[Caledorn]

Focal Point is officially at 258 hammers, ruling out The Great Wall. Either Pyramids, Schwedagon Paya, or a wonder with resource bonus that I haven't thought of.

Perhaps we should try claiming Pyramids as they gave us the opportunity before. Say we won't build HG if you don't build 'Mids. They might still want fail-gold if it is 'Mids.

We have claimed them according to our treaty that we signed with them. So if they build those, the entire treaty is null and void as we included an "all or nothing"-clause. I can't imagine why they'd go through all these motions to secure a treaty with us only to do that and stain the entire name of RB in such a dishonourable move. So I am absolutely certain that they're building something else (or possibly after the failgold as you say).

 

[2metraninja]

Perhaps we should try claiming Pyramids as they gave us the opportunity before. Say we won't build HG if you don't build 'Mids.

We already did that in the RB-CFC treaty to which they agreed. This leaves Shwedagon as the only possible wonder which I can think of.

 

[SilentConfusion]

CivPlayers did 3 1-pop Whips and 1 2-pop whip this turn all in a row. This is likely military in prep for big conflict or a round of buildings.

 

[2metraninja]

SC, can we have the hammers numbers for RB for this turn with the increase please?

 

[SilentConfusion]

The number in (parentheses) after the city name is the population.

RB
Adventure One (10): Palace, Granary, Library, Obelisk -11h (before 3, 5, 8; +2/3h per turn; must be full growth mode)
Mansa's Muse (7): Granary, Stonehenge, The Kashi Vishwanath, Library, Obelisk - 104h (before:70, 80, 89; +10/9h per turn)
Focal Point (6): Granary, Obelisk - 285h (before: 110, 131, 152; +21h per turn; wonder now with chops)
Horse Feathers (5): Granary, Obelisk - 57h (before: 27, 0, 100; whip overflow and build switching)
Gourmet Menu (7): Granary, Obelisk - 37h (before: 27, 38, 55; +11/17 per turn; switched build)
Seven Tribes (4): Granary, Obelisk - 0h (before: 5, 9, 115; chops or build switch followed by a build completion)
Forbidden Fruit (6): Granary, Obelisk - 0h (before: 34, 12, 18; change build 3t ago; since +6 per turn, completed build)
Eastern Dealers (3): Granary,Obelisk - 14h (before: 0, 10, 11; some overflow and +1/3h per turn)
Starfall (1): - 43h (first turn visible)

SpAp
Ulundi (6): Palace, Library, Ikhanda - 0h (before: 17, 0, 75; completed second build in 3 turns)
Umgungundlovu (6): Granary, Library, Ikhanda - 24h (before: 15, 24, 71; chops 1t ago, build switch)
Bulwayo (4): Granary, Monument, Ikhanda - 14h (before: 6, 12, 0; whip or chop to finish build)
KwaDukuza (2): No buildings - 10h (before: 47, 0, 0; completed build in 1 turn probably with overflow)

CP
Xochicalco (2): No buildings - 29h (before: 23, 25, 27; +2h per turn)

Focal point got 133h last turn. This must be from chops. There were only 2 forests close enough to go to that city, I think. Not sure how much each chops gives on these settings, but that looks like at least two chops to me (that's about 59 base hammers). It's now at 285. RB cap is producing hardly anything. Mansa's Muse is up to 104h. Seven Tribes finished a build that was over 115h (possibly a 120h building (coliseum, courthouse, forge)). Forbidden Fruit may have chopped or whipped something to completion because they were low hammers into the build before the turn. This is the first time oasis city (Starfall) is visible and it has 43h right now.

 

[2metraninja]

Checked the espionage numbers for us and RB. If my math is correct and we met them first and we were the first team they to meet, then they have met another team 3 turns ago and are spending all of their 4 espionage towards them. We have 292 espionage poins cumulative towards all other teams, while RB have 280 visible. Thats exactly 3 turns by 4 each. We cant see the two teams we did not met, so those 12 points must be there. Is it really possible that they got a deal on loaning Marble just 3 turns after they met a team? Is it at all possible that they can trade resources? RB have Sailing for quite some time, they may have sent workboat and met some team's coastal city...

 

[2metraninja]

If the worst case that they met other nation and were able to negotiate and deliver Marble and RB are building MoM with Marble in Focal point is true, then we have like 6-7 turns to build it before them.

Focal Point (6): Granary, Obelisk - 285h (before: 110, 131, 152; +21h per turn; wonder now with chops)

That leaves 450 - 285 = 165 hammers they lack for MoM as of this turn. 21 hammers each turn will take them 7.8 turns more to finish it. If they have those 2 forest still to chop in MoM, then this is the end for our hopes for stealing MoM. Do deforestation shows in the fog of war? I mean if a forest is chopped, will it disappear from the map when covered with fog of war? The other possibility is they are building Schwedagon for Pacifism. Guys, can we have educated guess if RB have Aesthetics and since when?

 

[2metraninja]

Hello,

Just a quick note.
We have contact with the team Apolyton.

They are west from the German team lands.

Best regards,
Tatu of WPC

I just had an idea. We must ask WPC if RB and WPC have met each- other, They must know and they can see if there is a trade (marble specifically) between those two.

 

[SilentConfusion]

If the worst case that they met other nation and were able to negotiate and deliver Marble and RB are building MoM with Marble in Focal point is true, then we have like 6-7 turns to build it before them.

Focal Point (6): Granary, Obelisk - 285h (before: 110, 131, 152; +21h per turn; wonder now with chops)

That leaves 450 - 285 = 165 hammers they lack for MoM as of this turn. 21 hammers each turn will take them 7.8 turns more to finish it. If they have those 2 forest still to chop in MoM, then this is the end for our hopes for stealing MoM. Do deforestation shows in the fog of war? I mean if a forest is chopped, will it disappear from the map when covered with fog of war? The other possibility is they are building Schwedagon for Pacifism. Guys, can we have educated guess if RB have Aesthetics and since when?

I think that it is not possible for them to be building a Marble wonder in Focal point. There were a max 9 base hammers available when it was getting 21h/turn. That had to be getting the 100% bonus. I'll see if I can give a guess on Aesthetics. Just because Focal Point isn't building MoM, doesn't mean it's not being built in a non-visible city.

 

[2metraninja]

Very good catch, SC (and relieving one for sure).

Do we know from demohacking how much population RB have as a whole? If we know this we can substract the cities we see and population and divide and guess if the cities we dont see in RB's north are big ones or not that big. Also, we can deduct this somewhat by dates they were settled. I hope it is only jungle in the North, so they have no what to chop.

 

[SilentConfusion]

I have everyone's population (of all cities) up through T54, but I still have to work from there.

EDIT: I'll try focusing on RB pop increases only. See how far I get.

 

[SilentConfusion]

The number in (parentheses) after the city name is the population.

RB
Adventure One (12): Palace, Granary, Library, Obelisk -14h (before 3, 5, 8, 11; +2/3h per turn; must be full growth/commerce mode)
Mansa's Muse (8): Granary, Stonehenge, The Kashi Vishwanath, Library, Obelisk - 128h (before:70, 80, 89, 104; steadily growing hammers)
Focal Point (7): Granary, Obelisk - 0h (before: 110, 131, 152, 285; did not complete wonder; must have switched build, possibly to whip)
Horse Feathers (6): Granary, Obelisk - 103h (before: 27, 0, 100, 57)
Gourmet Menu (8): Granary, Obelisk - 41h (before: 27, 38, 55, 37)
Seven Tribes (6): Granary, Obelisk - 9h (before: 5, 9, 115, 0; completed HG last turn)
Forbidden Fruit (5): Granary, Obelisk - 66h (before: 34, 12, 18, 0; completed build and have overflow)
Eastern Dealers (4): Granary,Obelisk - 17h (before: 0, 10, 11, 14; +3h per turn)
Brick By Brick (3): Granary, Obelisk - 8h (first turn visible)
Starfall (2): - 0h (before: 43h; completed build)

SpAp
Ulundi (6): Palace, Library, Ikhanda - 0h (before: 17, 0, 75, 0; completed third build in 4 turns)
Umgungundlovu (6): Granary, Library, Ikhanda, Monument - 0h (before: 15, 24, 71, 24; build completed)
Nobamba (6): Library, Ikhanda, one other - 0h (first turn visible)
Bulwayo (4): Granary, Monument, Ikhanda - 22h (before: 6, 12, 0, 14)
KwaDukuza (2): Granary, Monument, Ikhanda - 14h (before: 47, 0, 0, 10)

CP
Xochicalco (2): Granary - 0h (before: 23, 25, 27, 29; +2h per turn, completed build)

Mansa's Muse is steadily growing in hammers. How many hammers does a settler cost on these settings? Focal Point switched off of the wonder to a new build, possibly for whipping. Both Horse Feathers and Gourmet menus switched builds on the same turn 2 turns ago. Seven Tribes completed the Hanging Gardens last turn. Forbidden Fruit completed a build. Brick by Brick is now visible and has 8h. Starfall just completed a build.

Ulundi just completed its third build in 4 turns, or they're doing weird switching. Nomamba created a build and is visible for the first time. KwaDukuza built a couple of building a few turns ago.

Xochicalco completed a granary this turn with help from chop last turn.

 

[2metraninja]

How many hammers does a settler cost on these settings?

100 hammers

 

[SilentConfusion]

RB is logging in after everyone to see if demographics change. They are doing a more thorough job of demo-hacking than we are (that's not unexpected), but we can use that knowledge to our advantage. We can assume they know more than the average team about what's going on due to their demo-hacking expertise.

 

[2metraninja]

Mausoleum of Maussollos has been built in a far away land!

Is it possible that RB still built it, but in a city we dont see and thats why the game tells us this instead of "RB built the MoM"? Anyone knows for sure how this works?

 

[2metraninja]

Apolyton bulbed with their new GS a tech for 18 points. What that could be? Hopefully not Philosophy?