Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

[YossarianLives]

Thanks Caledorn for the Demo screenshots! Here's what we have:

GNP Rival Best: 19 (was 16)
Mfg Best: 4 (was 4)
Food Best: 6 (was 3)
Land Best: 8000!

Let’s start with what we know for sure. With two cities planted, and best Land Area at 8000, this means both RB and Civfr have one water tile in their starting nine tiles. We know that at least one team settled a 3food capital, and is working a 3food tile. We also know that in the last demo shot, Team RB was working either a 3food capital plus 3hammer tile, or a 2hammer capital plus 1f2h tile.

Now let’s start some speculating. The first thing that stood out to me is that Civfr’s capital also has a water tile in it. So would ours if we end up settling on Bananas. Also, we could replicate either of the two yield outputs we’ve seen in the demoshots if we settle on Bananas: 3food+4hammer, or 6food (presumably +1hammer). We speculated that RB was working the 4hammer tile to get their Exp bonus on a worker, and it makes no sense for them to switch off it to work a 3food tile.

So, I believe that RB settled a 3food capital and continues to work a 3hammer forested PH, and that Civfr settled a 3food capital and is working a 3food (probably FP) tile. I also believe the starts are very, very similar, so that all our settlers started on forested PH, and that we all started near floodplains, a resource worth 6food (wet corn for us), a late food resource (bananas for us), a nearby lake, and another PH within one move of the settler that made Apolyton, CivPlayer and myself think it was worth losing a turn to move the settler there.

 

[YossarianLives]

Oh, and I just noticed on CivStats that WePlayCiv has ended turn without building a city. I think it's reasonable to think of the teams that are not settling on the first turn as the ones who are forsaking commerce (nearby floodplains) for production (nearby hills & forests). Whether they're going to put those forest chops into soldiers or settlers remains to be seen.

Of course, this is all pure speculation.

 

[YossarianLives]

Ok, let's look at the new Best GNP, 19.

Again, RB will not want to switch off their 4 hammers and lose the Exp bonus, so it makes most sense that Civfr is responsible for this number. Remember, Willem is Creative, so the equation is 0 commerce+4 culture+4 espy+(research*bonus). Research will be 8 (Palace) + 1 (free for settling 1st city) + 1 (city tile) + 1 (presumed FP tile) = 11. That means 0+4+4+(11x)=19, where x is the research bonus.

Since 4+4+11=19, there is no research bonus, and Civfr is researching a Tech with no pre-reqs. This means they are not going religion first. My guess is they are researching Agri themselves. If they have a similar start as us, it's an obvious choice.

 

[YossarianLives]

It is now the year 3960BC!

Looks like UCiv founded their capital this turn. I'll update the spreadsheet later today.

New Demos screenshot please!

 

[Caledorn]

I have posted new demo screenshots in the State of the Empire thread. But I'm sure you've already noticed that

On that account - should I continue to do the mouseover screenshot? Perhaps you only want it when something changes, like pop, units, techs, etc? Or is it completely unneccessary?

 

[YossarianLives]

Thanks again Caledorn for the screenshot. It is very much appreciated.

I will be referring to this as Turn 1 in this thread, and the starting turn as Turn 0. Just wanted to point that out to avoid confusion.

At any rate, the spreadsheet is updated. Just a minor note of importance: The Rival Best Land has gone up from 8000 to 9000. This means that UCiv's capital does not have any water in the surrounding 9 tiles. That is actually suprising to me. If we had settled on the PH that we were discussing, then the 1-tile lake would have been in our initial 9 tiles, so either they did not settle on that PH, or the starts are a little more varied than I thought (maybe they don't have a nearby lake? Maybe their PH was not adjacent to their nearby lake?). The other option is that they went someplace else entirely for their capital. We had also (briefly) considered the southern PH for our capital, it's possible they went in that direction...

Edit: I was wrong here. I was caught up in the fact that UCiv had just settled, I forgot that Spanish Poly settled last turn and we don't know how many land points they had, so either of UCiv or Spanish Poly could have that Rival Best 9000. We know they can't both have 9000 because the average is 4125 = (8,000 (RB) + 8,000 (Civfr) +9000 (Rival Best) + x) / 8, which is 25,000 + x = 33,000, which is x=8000 land points. If it is Spanish Poly and they settled in place (thus avoiding the lake), then it is still possible that UCiv founded on the PH and has a lake in their initial 9. This would be consistent with very similar starts. If all the teams that did not settle on Turn 0 have 8000 land points, that will be more evidence still that they all moved to the PH and all have the lake in the initial 9.

 

[YossarianLives]

I have posted new demo screenshots in the State of the Empire thread. But I'm sure you've already noticed that

On that account - should I continue to do the mouseover screenshot? Perhaps you only want it when something changes, like pop, units, techs, etc? Or is it completely unneccessary?

At this point, completely unnecessary! I just needed it once to be able to calculate the value of each population point and land tile. Thank you for effort, though!

 

[YossarianLives]

And once again, my thanks to Caledorn for the Demos. The spreadsheet has been updated.

First thing is that everyone is at 29 points now, so everyone has settled their capital.

Let’s go to Land next. Now, my hypothesis has been that the starts are very similar, and that teams that did not settle on Turn 0 were most likely moving towards their equivalent of our PH site, and would have 8 land tiles in their starting 9, since they’d be settling adjacent to the lake. What do the demos show us?

Rival Best = 9000 (we already knew this)
Rival Average = 8125 (this is the important one)
Rival Worst = 8000 (so nobody settled with more than 1 water tile in their initial 9)

We know RB and Civfr have 8000, and between Uciv and Spanish Poly, one team has 8000 and the other has 9000. So, ( 8000 + 8000 + 8000 + 9000 + (4 unknowns) ) / 8 = 8125, which is 33,000 + (4 unknowns) = 65,000, which is (4 unknowns) = 32,000. Since we know nobody has less than 8000 land tiles, the only way to get 32,000 is if all four remaining teams have 8 land tiles in their starting 9.

Now this does not prove anything conclusively, but it sure is consistent with what we are seeing in our own start. RB and Civfr settled on the equivalent of our Banana site, Spanish Poly settled in place, and Uciv, WPC, the Germans, Poly, and CivPlayers all went for the equivalent of our PH.

It’s tough to tell a whole lot else. We’re in second place with 17 GNP, and at 16, the Rival Average equals the Rival worst. We’ve already theorized that (Cre) Civfr has the Rival best 19 GNP, so most other teams probably have 16, meaning they are not working any commerce tiles (consistent with moving to the PH), and they are researching a Tech with no pre-req’s (Agri for the corn equivalent? Mining headed toward BW to chop all those forests? Hunting for the Deer?)

Because the Food and Mfg numbers are so low, and with the way Civ rounds, it’s hard to get specific numbers using the Average like we can for land. The average Food and Mfg are 4 and 2. I am guessing the Exp Civs who settled on PH (Civforum.de, and Uciv) are working 1 food, 2 hammer tiles for the bonus on a worker, while the other Civs who settled on the PH are working a 3-food, 0 hammer, 0 commerce tile (corn or banana).

Well, that’s everything I can think of for now. Now that everyone’s settled, there probably won’t be too much to note of importance until cities start growing, units are produced, and techs are researched. I’ll keep updating the spreadsheet as I get the screenshots (again, much thanks to Caledorn for keeping them coming!)

 

[YossarianLives]

Earlier I mentioned that the Tech costs on the spreadsheet were off.

Tech
...
The costs on the spreadsheet are from this page, Civilization 4: Technologies, but they’re not what come up when I actually open up the game, so we might have to fix that.

I found the explanation for calculating the correct costs at this link.

...
Technology Costs

To calculate the technology cost of a technology:

1) Take the base cost of the technology. (This can be found for each technology in Assets\XML\Technologies\CIV4TechInfo.xml).

2) Take the Difficulty Modifier and add 0.5 * the Number of teammates you have to it. (The difficulty modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4HandicapInfo.xml.)

3) Multiply 1) by 2) and take the FLOOR of the product.

4) Multiply 3) by the Map Modifier and take the FLOOR of the product. (The map modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4WorldInfo.xml.)

5) Multiply 4) by the Speed Modifier and take the FLOOR of the product. This generates the actual cost of the technology. (The speed modifier can be found in Assets\XML\GameInfo\CIV4GameSpeedInfo.xml.)

Thus the formula to calculate a Technology's cost is:

Technology Cost = FLOOR (FLOOR (FLOOR (Base Cost * (Difficulty Modifier + 0.5 * # of teammates)) * Map Modifier) * Speed Modifier)
...

Req

My problem is that I am have no idea how to find the files referred to in that quote (see also my posts about how clueless I am about the FastWorker app), so I have no idea how to get these numbers. I've been searching for some explanation on the CFC forums, but have not found anything that helps me figure out what these modifiers are for our game. Can anybody point me in the right direction?

 

[Arkipeller]

Earlier I mentioned that the Tech costs on the spreadsheet were off.



I found the explanation for calculating the correct costs at this link.



My problem is that I am have no idea how to find the files referred to in that quote (see also my posts about how clueless I am about the FastWorker app), so I have no idea how to get these numbers. I've been searching for some explanation on the CFC forums, but have not found anything that helps me figure out what these modifiers are for our game. Can anybody point me in the right direction?

I will post you later. got the answer but no battery left. at cafe....

 

[DaveShack]

The files can be found in your BTS installation directory. Mine for example is in C:\Program Files (x86)\Firaxis Games\Sid Meier's Civilization 4\Beyond the Sword\Assets\XML\Technologies\Civ4TechInfos.xml

However, they are XML files, which may be kinda hard to use directly. I felt like poking around a little, and extracted this "base cost" information in csv format.

Spoiler base tech cost :

FISHING,40
HUNTING,40
MYSTICIS,50
MINING,50
PRIESTHOOD,60
THE_WHEEL,60
AGRICULTURE,60
ARCHERY,60
MEDITATION,80
POTTERY,80
MASONRY,80
POLYTHEISM,100
SAILING,100
ANIMAL_HUSBANDRY,100
MONOTHEISM,120
WRITING,120
BRONZE_WORKING,120
LITERATURE,200
IRON_WORKING,200
MATHEMATICS,250
HORSEBACK_RIDING,250
MONARCHY,300
DRAMA,300
AESTHETICS,300
ALPHABET,300
CODE_OF_LAWS,350
CALENDAR,350
CONSTRUCTION,350
COMPASS,400
METAL_CASTING,450
THEOLOGY,500
MUSIC,600
PAPER,600
OPTICS,600
FEUDALISM,700
BANKING,700
MACHINERY,700
CIVIL_SERVICE,800
PHILOSOPHY,800
GUILDS,1000
ENGINEERING,1000
DIVINE_RIGHT,1200
GUNPOWDER,1200
LIBERALISM,1400
ECONOMICS,1400
CORPORATION,1600
PRINTING_PRESS,1600
NATIONALISM,1800
EDUCATION,1800
CHEMISTRY,1800
REPLACEABLE_PARTS,1800
MILITARY_TRADITION,2000
CONSTITUTION,2000
ASTRONOMY,2000
MILITARY_SCIENCE,2000
FASCISM,2400
SCIENTIFIC_METHOD,2400
RIFLING,2400
DEMOCRACY,2800
UTOPIA,2800
STEEL,2800
STEAM_POWER,3200
MASS_MEDIA,3600
BIOLOGY,3600
COMBUSTION,3600
PHYSICS,4000
ARTILLERY,4000
REFRIGERATION,4000
MEDICINE,4500
ELECTRICITY,4500
RAILROAD,4500
FLIGHT,5000
ADVANCED_FLIGHT,5000
ASSEMBLY_LINE,5000
ROCKETRY,5000
ECOLOGY,5500
FISSION,5500
RADIO,6000
SATELLITES,6000
INDUSTRIALISM,6500
SUPERCONDUCTORS,6500
COMPUTERS,6500
PLASTICS,7000
GENETICS,7000
LASER,7000
COMPOSITES,7500
FIBER_OPTICS,7500
STEALTH,8000
FUSION,8000
ROBOTICS,8000
FUTURE_TECH,10000

The difficulty multiplier for emperor is 120%, so use 1.2 in the formula.
World size large multiplier is 140%, or 1.4 in the formula.
Speed modifier for normal is 1, so it can just be omitted.
Number of teammates is zero. This factor doesn't apply to this game.

 

[YossarianLives]

Thanks Daveshack for providing those modifiers! The spreadsheet has been updated with the true tech costs. One of these days I will also add in the missing techs, too (everything after Classical Era). If anybody feels like beating me to it, please feel free!

Edit: Updated the spreadsheet with all techs, including correct costs and power. I did this manually getting info from a variety of threads, so it would definitely benefit from somebody checking my work, either now or as I make proclamations or guesses based on the numbers later on. Also discovered why there is a Utopia tech in DaveShack's list.

Spoiler :

It's Communism

 

[YossarianLives]

Alright, the spreadsheet has been updated with the new demo numbers. There are a couple interesting things to note here.

First, the Rival Best Land has (expectedly) shot up as Creative Civfr pops their capital borders. Remember, we know they settled with 1 water tile in their starting 9 because we saw that Rival Best was still 8 after they had settled. They now have 20 Land tiles, so there is only the 1 water tile in their BFC. This remains consistent with a very similar start as ours, and them settling on the Bananas.

There were also a couple interesting changes to the GNP, MFG and Food numbers.

Rival Best GNP dropped from 19 to 18. I had hypothesized that Civfr had 19, boosted by their Cre trait, so the drop would be consistent with them switching off of a 1 coin tile, probably FP. This is backed up by the Rival Worst MFG going up from 1 to 2 (again, moving off a FP and onto a tile with 1 hammer). But wait a second, Rival Best Food has not dropped to correspond with this change. Someone is making 6 Food and at least 2 Mfg, with only one Pop! At first this threw me off, but when I took a closer look at our starting location, I realized that the 3F, 1H Deer Tile would have come into play with Civfr's border pop if they settled on Bananas. This is consistent with them losing a Coin and gaining a Hammer, but not losing any Food.

With a +4 Food surplus since Turn 0, Civfr's Capital should grow on Turn 6, unless they are building a worker or settler. We will know because they will get a score increase (from 29 to 31) and a power increase (1k for 2 Pop).

 

[Bowsling]

Sorry for what is perhaps a noob question - but why are you assuming that they aren't building a worker? Building a worker first is almost universal, and it would be suicide not to on this kind of map.

 

[YossarianLives]

Oh, I actually think it's pretty safe to assume they are building a worker. I just wrote that to point out that we will know for sure very soon whether they are building a worker or not, based on whether or not they grow.

Who knows, though. Sometimes teams do weird things in these demogames.

 

[Bowsling]

Oh, okay.

 

[YossarianLives]

Spreadsheet is updated with the info from the most recent screenshots. The big news is...absolutely no changes anywhere. This is pretty much to be expected, as there really isn't a whole lot that will change anything this early on. Just makes for a boring turn to demohack.

Borders will pop next turn for us and everyone else who settled on T0. My prediction, of course, is that everyone will end up with 20 land tiles in the Cap's BFC (just that one-tile lake). We'll see if I'm right over the next couple turns.

 

[YossarianLives]

Heading out right now and have to work early tomorrow, so I might not get a longer post in, but just wanted to comment that Rival Best Land is now 21000, so that kills my prediction above. Hmm, did Spanish Poly settle 1NW?

 

[Caledorn]

Remember the starts are not mirrored, just similar. They may not have a lake at all for all we know.

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

 

[YossarianLives]

I’ll start with some analysis.

Rival Average Land is 12625. We know Spanish Poly have 21000*, Civfr have 20000, all five teams who settled on T1 have 8000. 12625 = (21000 + 20000 + (8000*5) + x) / 8, which means 101000 = 81000 + x, which means 20000 = x. So, RB has 20 land tiles and 1 water tile in their BFC.



*Before it was not certain which of Uciv or Spanish Poly had 9 land tiles, and which had 8. That’s because our screenshot from T0 was before Spanish Poly settled and ended turn, and our screenshot from T1 was from after Uciv settled and ended turn. But now we know that the team that settled on T0 (Spanish Poly) had 9 land tiles, in order to get 21 with the first border pop.

Remember the starts are not mirrored, just similar. They may not have a lake at all for all we know.

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

Right, the starts are not mirrored, but every indication until now would be that they are extremely similar. Every single start that the demographics have revealed could have been replicated with our start.

A 6-food start is not that common, but we could have done it settling on bananas and working FP. Then a 6-food, 2-hammer start is even more unusual, but makes complete sense when you see the border pop would have brought the deer tile into range.

We could have replicated RB’s tile yield of 3 food and 4 hammers on T0 by settling on Bananas and working the forested PH. Of course, this one could also have been replicated if they had a start where they could SIP and still work a 2-hammer tile, something not available on our start.

A 1-tile lake is easy to spot in the demos, and right now it appears that everyone has it. We’ll know for sure next turn when everyone else pops borders, but I would be very surprised to see if anyone has more than that 1 water tile in their BFC. I doubt Plako would have given EVERY team a 1-tile lake except Spanish Poly

However, I do admit the fact that they don’t have that water tile in their BFC does make it seem more like the starts aren’t as close as I have been thinking. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.