Skullduggery Thread for Demohacking

[YossarianLives]

Spreadsheet is updated with the newest demos. Since the screenshot was taken before most teams played, these demos most accurately reflect the end of T9 (after teams made adjustments upon growing or completing their first tech). Let's look at the change in GNP: Rival Best went up to 20 and Rival Average went up to 17.

I am guessing WPC is the team with 20 GNP, since they also grew last turn. This would require them to be making 14 commerce, which is possible working 2 tiles with 1-commerce (2 FP), while researching a tech with a pre-req (BW). As soon as WPC get BW, they will be able to start whipping out resource-less Dog Soldiers, so we need to watch out for them.

The reason Rival Best GNP was only 19 last turn could be because we took the screenshot before WPC played, so no tech was selected and the pre-req bonus did not appear. I imagine that this means another team who played before us last time has the 19 GNP number (maybe RB working a FP).

Now, I'm actually surprised Rival Average stayed relatively low at 17 GNP. Anyone researching a tech with a pre-req would have a minimum GNP of 18 right now, or 19 if they are working a tile with 1-commerce. If I am right that all the teams who finished a tech last turn researched Mining and are now on BW, then the teams who did not research a tech (Civfr, CivPlayers and Uciv) cannot be researching something that has a pre-req, and cannot be working any commerce. That would mean that neither Uciv nor CivPlayers can be researching a religion. If a religion is founded in the next few turns, then we will know that a team who finished a tech on T9 must now be researching something without any pre-req's (so they cannot be teching BW, so they probably didn't open with Mining).

At any rate, I do expect the Rival Average GNP to increase in the coming turns as teams complete their worker builds and switch focus over to food and commerce.

 

[YossarianLives]

The spreadsheet is updated for this turn.

First things first. Civfr had a 6-point score increase, so they must have researched a tech. There was no Soldier increase this turn (we'll get more into that later), so it must have been a powerless tech. They settled on T0, so it took them the full 11 turns to get the tech. Because Civfr is Creative, and Rival Best GNP did not surpass 18 until T10, I am almost positive that they were researching a tech that had no pre-req’s (otherwise Rival Best would have been at least 20). The only thing that makes sense to me was that they researched Agri. However, I can’t imagine why they didn’t finish it last turn, like us. Any ideas out there?

Alright, let’s take a quick look at that Soldier count. I had mentioned earlier that it had not increased, but the interesting thing is that it actually decreased by 2k. The only thing I can think of that would explain this is someone lost their exploring warrior to an animal. Unfortunately we have no way to know which team lost their warrior. Hopefully it was one of our neighbors!

The last thing I wanted to point out was that Rival Best and Average GNP both increased this turn, as expected. At 21, Rival Best GNP is probably Civfr working 1 commerce tile and researching a tech with a pre-req (4 culture + 4 espy + (11*1.2) commerce = 21 GNP).

 

[Bowsling]

Wow!

Could CivFr have researched fishing for some reason?

 

[DaveShack]

If they're financial, it would let them work a lake as 3C. Equal to a cottage that doesn't grow C later, right? Anything important you can beeline that starts with fishing?

 

[YossarianLives]

If they did research Fishing, then they started researching a different tech, or have already begun collecting gold for some reason, because Fishing is too cheap to have taken 11 turns to research.

21 GNP only requires them to be working a 1-commerce tile, as long as they are researching something with a pre-req. (8 Palace + 1 center tile + 1 free + 1 worked tile)*1.2 = 13 + 4 culture + 4 espy = 21 GNP.

 

[Caledorn]

Well, well, well... The Story-thread Apolyton has started is interesting. We now know they have a lake and cattle by their capital. We also know they have lots of rivers, like us. And we know they have seen mountains. This adds to the suspicion that the map may be a "wheel" of a sort, with mountains dividing off the teams and a center where everyone can meet perhaps?

And I am very puzzled by them posting that thread in this game environment! I love rping, and I know several of you also love diplo-games, but I suggest we avoid giving away strategic information in the thread if we choose to participate in it (which I hope we will!).

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

 

[talonschild]

I'd thought the same thing. It's interesting, though their post looks a tad... naïve. Ideas on what to put up there?

I do like the way they handled such a thread in the 'Destruction of Foes" link they put up. The two "Destiny" threads just kind of annoyed me, though.

 

[YossarianLives]

I agree that Apolyton's story was very interesting indeed, and maybe gave away a little more info than they were intending. I know, I know, the starts are not mirrored, but founding by a lake, with a cow in their BFC, just looks like what our start would have been if we had moved to the PH instead of SIP. Maybe the "fields of grass" they refer to means they have a Wheat tile where our Corn is? Oh, and I can update our spreadsheet with the name of their capital now!

At any rate, the final two teams have researched their first techs. I don't want to make any predictions just yet. First, I'd like to see the screenshots from this turn, and then I'll comment more here.

 

[talonschild]

Maybe the "fields of grass" they refer to means they have a Wheat tile where our Corn is?

I would go so far as to say "maybe the 'fields of grass' is a grassland tile"

 

[cav scout]

I don't see any good reason why we should post a "story" thread of are own. As far as any juicy tidbits that poly "naively" offers up in their thread... I would take them with a grain of salt.

 

[talonschild]

As it happens, Arkipeller was nice enough to compose a little something. Says... really very little.

 

[grant2004]

Yes, I was relieved when I saw that it didn't reveal anything more than internal politics. I still think in the future it would be a good idea to post messages like that in the team forum first for review. This story thread is a form of diplomacy with all teams and we want to make sure we're sending the right message.

 

[talonschild]

I still think in the future it would be a good idea to post messages like that in the team forum first for review.

This.

 

[cav scout]

Yes, I was relieved when I saw that it didn't reveal anything more than internal politics. I still think in the future it would be a good idea to post messages like that in the team forum first for review. This story thread is a form of diplomacy with all teams and we want to make sure we're sending the right message.

Agreed.

Arkipeller's post makes us look like good sports who are happy to play ball with Poly and their penchant for roleplaying/stories. It also might cause the other teams to think we are naive and make us look less threatening. So we put a little bit out there but nothing that would damage us. In the future though we want tighter team control about what we present to the other teams.

Also, the tidbit about Dave and Sommers was a good thing to put out there. We can make use of "internal power struggles" in our diplo with other teams if we ever need to stall/baffle or send mixed messages.

 

[DaveShack]

I liked it too. Play along, but say nothing of substance there. And I also agree it would be good to run public statements by the team first to check if the tone is right and verify it's not revealing.

If we want to play up the "internal power struggle" angle later to appear weak, one of us can later say that the post was not approved by the CFC Ministry of Internal Security. But I'd say not, for now, because it doesn't fit in with the mood yet.

 

[YossarianLives]

I think the tone and content of Arkipeller’s post were spot on, but yeah, let’s definitely run all messages by the team before posting them in the story thread. And I definitely agree that the content in Poly’s post could have been deliberately misleading so we need to be very careful what we infer from these “stories”.

On to the Demos!

CivPlayers and UniverCiv each finished a tech this turn. They both start with Hunting/Myst. There was no increase in Soldiers this turn, so we know they both got powerless techs. We know neither researched a religious tech. This only leaves Agri (100), Fishing (67) or Masonry (134) as possibilities. They both founded on T1 so they have had 11 turns to research. That means they have between 110-120 research invested into a tech with no pre-req, or 132-137 research invested into a tech with a pre-req. Fishing is way too cheap to just finish on T12, so it has to be Agri or Masonry. Based on the fact that Best Mfg dropped this turn and Worst Food shot up, I don’t think either team is focusing on getting out a Wonder just yet, so I will tentatively put them down for Agri. Again, it seems to me that they should have finished this a turn faster (like Civfr). Can anyone point out why they might have only gotten to 100 research on this turn? Maybe it was masonry, and they’re growing a bit before actually starting on TGW or SH.

 

[YossarianLives]

No score changes. No changes in any of the demos. No info revealed in Poly's latest story.

 

[Arkipeller]

Writing stories is my expertise. I had Caledorn control the entry before posting, but will post my next entry here before posting it further if that is what our team says.

Cal and I have talked what not to write in my "Mansa-Blog", so I guess I'll just make a thread where we may come up with fun stuff we could write.

If wanted I will continue writing in between of everything else.

 

[YossarianLives]

IMO, it would be great if you can continue being our "voice" for the story thread, and I really like the "Young Mansa" perspective.

I was actually thinking about some ideas for a possible response to Poly's latest Wolf story, but I'll wait until you create a new thread for this, and then share my ideas in there.

 

[YossarianLives]

There's not a whole lot happening in the Demo's this turn, so I want to take a closer look at the Mfg / Food numbers. This is where the only change occured this turn.

The new Rival Best Food is at 9. This is a pretty high number, even for the teams that have 2 pop already. Meanwhile, Rival Worst Mfg fell down to 1. It hasn't been this low since Turn 2. I believe both of these changes can be attributed to RB. Here's why:

I am pretty sure that RB has a 3-food capital, based on the demos we were seeing in the early turns before other teams settled. We know for sure that they were working 4 hammers and 3 food (including the city tile). With their Exp bonus, their Worker should have completed on T10. At this point, they probably switched to their Deer tile (based on the demos, most teams seem to have a 31 tile nearby), while they farmed their Corn equivalent. Now that their Corn farm is done, they can switch to work this tile, thus making 3 food from the city tile, and 6 from their Corn (or wheat, I guess, but it can't be Sheep or another AH resource since they haven't researched this yet).

If this is correct, RB should grow next turn, so we should see a 2 point score increase from them.