Poking around in the XML solved one part of the mystery.
The reason people keep reporting that every other unit deleted reduced their maintenance is this (I believe):
After applying some (unknown) formula based on game speed, number of turns elapsed, and number of units, the result is then rounded down to the nearest multiple of 7. This is the "exponent divisor value." Every other place that the word "divisor" is used in the XML, it's in this context (for example, the policy cost divisor is 5, they are based on a formula and then rounded down to the nearest 5).
So it seems that the reason that deleting 2 units tends to make it go down by exactly 7 some of the time but not always depends on the amount of maintenance. If your unrounded maintenence is 48 (rounds to 42) and you maintenance per unit is 5, you have to delete 2 units to see a change in maintenance, but deleting one more unit after that makes it change again! The number is inconsistent because 5 does not divide into 7.
I'm willing to guess that unit costs remain between 0 and 7 for most of the game, if not all of it, which explains why sometimes you can delete a unit and not have any change in maintenance.
By the way, 2 units costing 2.02 times as much is likely just a rounding issue. If you have one unit that costs 7.6, it will round it DOWN to 7. If you have two units costing 7.6, it adds up to 15.2 and then rounds to 15. The ratio will not be exactly two because the fractions are dropped after all of the cost is added up.
To anyone wanting to figure out the formula, the easiest way would be to set the divisor to 1 so you can actually see it changing in amounts smaller than 7, use Tuner to give yourself a huge number of units, then record the amount of maintenance on each turn for a few dozen turns (please keep in mind the game speed makes a difference). If you want to, send me the results you obtain and I'll figure out the formula (I have a math background and love this kind of stuff, I just don't really know how to use Tuner and don't have much interest in pressing end turn 100 times to get a decent sample).