Speculating on future DLC Civilizations based on Civ6 Civilization Popularity

[untitledjuan]

We all know that one of Firaxis main criteria when selecting which Civilizations to include is the popularity and marketability of a given Civilization, whether we like it or not. For this reason, I compiled a list of Civ6's Civilizations ranked according to the number of views that their respective "First Look" video currently has on YouTube. For comparison reasons, I added the current approximate population that each "Civilization" has in the present (I included modern countries where the in-game Civilization simply died out in the past).

Spoiler Top 10 :

Spoiler Top 20 :

Spoiler Top 30 :

Spoiler Top 40 :

Spoiler Top 50 :

Spoiler Last :

 

[gdr_willter]

There seems not so much dispersion between a lot of middle rankers.

 

[untitledjuan]

There seems not so much dispersion between a lot of middle rankers.

That's true, there's only a significant difference in number of views in the top 10 civilizations

 

[Hawke9]

I think we should also take into account the date at which these first looks were published. Portugal is the last civ added and is at the bottom of the list, but if it was added in the base game I think it would have gotten a lot more views

 

[untitledjuan]

I think we should also take into account the date at which these first looks were published. Portugal is the last civ added and is at the bottom of the list, but if it was added in the base game I think it would have gotten a lot more views

You're right, that's why I included in the chart the year in which each Civilization was introduced. However, Gran Colombia in fourth place is interesting, considering it was introduced in 2020, four years after the realease of the base game.

Canada, Hungary and the Ottomans also appear in the Top 10 and they were realeased in 2019, three years after the base game.

 

[Siptah]

You're right, that's why I included in the chart the year in which each Civilization was introduced. However, Gran Colombia in fourth place is interesting, considering it was introduced in 2020, four years after the realease of the base game.

Canada, Hungary and the Ottomans also appear in the Top 10 and they were realeased in 2019, three years after the base game.

I‘m sure you are aware of this already, but I nonetheless have to point out that the year alone isn‘t that informative. E.g., if a FL was the first civ 6 FL, it might have been more attractive (America & England were the first two?) than the 14th one of the base game. Similarly, for the expansions - the order of FLs might have had an impact that is not captured with the year alone. Additionally, some more minor things might have lead to rewatches: complicated bonuses, nice looking models, etc. It‘s not just the civ choice that‘s defining the content.

Yet, this might be one of the best possible data sets available. If I had more time, I could grab the comments from the videos and do a little text mining analysis looking for most wished-for civs. The best data would probably be FXS‘s internal „how many games were started with each civ in civ 6.“ A bit sad that, unlike PDX, they never publish this even in excerpts.

 

[Black Gate]

Canada's in the top ten, which clearly means we can get another French speaker or even another French leader in there. An obvious and inspired choice for Firaxis, since we really are missing the French in Civ7.

 

[Hellenism Salesman]

Looking at Steam achievements would also help weigh out-of-game popularity vs. in-game popularity. It’s imperfect, but still tells a story.

 

[Uberfrog]

Yet, this might be one of the best possible data sets available. If I had more time, I could grab the comments from the videos and do a little text mining analysis looking for most wished-for civs. The best data would probably be FXS‘s internal „how many games were started with each civ in civ 6.“ A bit sad that, unlike PDX, they never publish this even in excerpts.

All we have is the Steam achievements database, which obviously favours launch civs, as well as showing the absolutely abysmal rate of completion of the game.

The top 10 by % of players who have unlocked the relevant achievement for winning a game:-
1. Qin (10.6%)
2. Trajan (9.1%)
3. Barbarossa (8.9%)
4. Peter (7.9%)
5. Teddy (7.7%)
6. Hojo (6.3%)
7. Victoria (5.5%)
8. Cleopatra (5.2%)
9. Gilgamesh (4.9%)
10. Catherine (4.9%)

The highest of the DLC civs are Monty (13th, 4.5%) and Seondeok (14th, 4.4%).

 

[stealth_nsk]

I don't think Civ6 statistics has anything to do with actual request for particular civ. The choice of civilization is often dictated by their gameplay bonuses, not the name.

 

[Evie]

Canada's in the top ten, which clearly means we can get another French speaker or even another French leader in there. An obvious and inspired choice for Firaxis, since we really are missing the French in Civ7.

Are all the leaders in the game French speakers? No?

Then there aren't eniugh. Add more.

 

[Uberfrog]

I don't think Civ6 statistics has anything to do with actual request for particular civ. The choice of civilization is often dictated by their gameplay bonuses, not the name.

I don’t know how true that is… based on comments here and elsewhere people have many reasons for picking their civ beyond gameplay. We certainly don’t have good data on this either way, but it remains the only metric we do have for how “popular” a given civ is.

Civ 5 has a similar top 10, for what it’s worth - again all launch civs:
1. Washington (11.9%)
2. Augustus (11%)
3. Bismarck (10.6%)
4. Catherine (10.5%)
5. Ramesses (10%)
6. Oda (9.8%)
7. Napoleon (9.2%)
8. Elizabeth (9.1%)
9. Alexander (9%)
10. Wu (7.3%)

And once again the top DLC civs are Babylon (the Deluxe bonus, 13th, 6.5%) and Sejong (15th, 6.4%).

So to no one’s surprise, it is safe to bet on a Korean DLC sooner or later.

 

[stealth_nsk]

I don’t know how true that is… based on comments here and elsewhere people have many reasons for picking their civ beyond gameplay. We certainly don’t have good data on this either way, but it remains the only metric we do have for how “popular” a given civ is.

Well, if we speak about the decision, which civs include and which don't, I'd just totally ignore this metric if I'd be in the position of game designer. The things I'd look at:

1. How the civ coverage is perceived by general audience. For example, european civs could be popular, but having to eurocentric roster would not be very welcomed. On the other hand, some civilizations are mainly considered mandatory, like America.
2. Potential free marketing. For example, inclusion of Jose Rizal caused some additional coverage from Philippine media and you don't even need a civ for it. I wouldn't be surprised if his announce close to release was a business decision.
3. Choices, which would spark online discussions, granting additional coverage. Moving Britain to DLC could be one such decision.
4. Civs and leaders, whose media image have something, which allow putting them into some gameplay niche.

Something like this.

 

[Uberfrog]

Well, if we speak about the decision, which civs include and which don't, I'd just totally ignore this metric if I'd be in the position of game designer. The things I'd look at:

1. How the civ coverage is perceived by general audience. For example, european civs could be popular, but having to eurocentric roster would not be very welcomed. On the other hand, some civilizations are mainly considered mandatory, like America.
2. Potential free marketing. For example, inclusion of Jose Rizal caused some additional coverage from Philippine media and you don't even need a civ for it. I wouldn't be surprised if his announce close to release was a business decision.
3. Choices, which would spark online discussions, granting additional coverage. Moving Britain to DLC could be one such decision.
4. Civs and leaders, whose media image have something, which allow putting them into some gameplay niche.

Something like this.

Oh I agree! I was just chiming in with the thread’s data-driven approach and the point about the lack of in-game stats.

But the in-game stats would be a lousy way to pick civs, as it would ensure essentially that the same civs get picked every game.

 

[stealth_nsk]

Oh I agree! I was just chiming in with the thread’s data-driven approach and the point about the lack of in-game stats.

But the in-game stats would be a lousy way to pick civs, as it would ensure essentially that the same civs get picked every game.

Yeah, I have some not really great experience with data-driven approach. You make decision based on small pieces of information you could measure into metrics, while totally ignore the rest of the info you can't. I'm all hands for qualitative approach, using quantitative as support only

 

[Uberfrog]

Yeah, I have some not really great experience with data-driven approach. You make decision based on small pieces of information you could measure into metrics, while totally ignore the rest of the info you can't. I'm all hands for qualitative approach, using quantitative as support only

It also doesn’t allow for any surprises. Such an approach would never have given us Tamar or Georgia, or the Mississippians, for example!

 

[8housesofelixir]

I don't think Civ6 statistics has anything to do with actual request for particular civ. The choice of civilization is often dictated by their gameplay bonuses, not the name.

One thing I am pretty sure of is that many Chinese civ players will play Qin in Civ 6 simply because that's "China." Likely part of the reason why Qin has the highest achievement unlocked rate (as the Chinese player base is quite large).

 

[Xandinho]

Some leaders/civs are played a lot simply because they are more fun or have more powerful bonuses. I remember at launch how much people loved playing China because of the extra builder charge or Rome because of the free buildings when founding cities. Australia was also popular because was very powerful.

 

[stealth_nsk]

One thing I am pretty sure of is that many Chinese civ players will play Qin in Civ 6 simply because that's "China." Likely part of the reason why Qin has the highest achievement unlocked rate (as the Chinese player base is quite large).

If you look at the stat above, China is number one for Civ6, and just number 10 for Civ5. This could be for a number of reasons, for example, Chinese market growing in the years between Civ5 and Civ6, but it could also be indication that national identity played much smaller role than bonuses. In that's sort of thing you can't tell by a metric alone.

 

[8housesofelixir]

If you look at the stat above, China is number one for Civ6, and just number 10 for Civ5. This could be for a number of reasons, for example, Chinese market growing in the years between Civ5 and Civ6, but it could also be indication that national identity played much smaller role than bonuses. In that's sort of thing you can't tell by a metric alone.

The Chinese gaming market boomed just around the release of Civ 6, and Civ 6 is much more marketed in China than Civ 5. Many also thought Civ 5 was an "old" game and would prefer the newest installation.

I do agree that many will play Qin because of the bonuses - hence why I said identity is just "likely partly the reason" - but the fact that national identity played an important role in the 2nd biggest civ player community on Steam is also something that I observed as a Chinese player myself. In other words, the "popularity" metric can be fueled by national identity, which would always lean towards the group with the most population, and makes such a metric a bit unbalanced.