Startup research strategy

[Blkbird]

What I'd love to see is a discussion on a more general research direction, say one that targets not the next two techs, but the next 7 or 8. That would give you latitude in achieving that goal, and not have to poll all the time.

We can discuss, but I don't like the idea of making a decision 7 or 8 Techs ahead. Too many game events and information will come in in the meantime, which, put togother, will almost certainly have a decisive influence on research.

Chaos theory is a cool, but for more practical applications, walking one step a time is much more solid. I'm more of a micromanagement freak anyway, in case you haven't noticed yet.

 

[Blkbird]

Black_Hole - it is posted in the middle of a paragraph, and is bolded.

False. It's not "in the middle of a paragraph", it's an entire paragraph stating nothing else than the status of the poll.

 

[Black_Hole]

False. It's not "in the middle of a paragraph", it's an entire paragraph stating nothing else than the status of the poll.

Sorry, I was meaning the exception clause in the TCIT:
"In the rare case a Hut gives us Mysticism within the first 10 turns, switch research to Polytheism immediately."

When I said "snuck in", I didn't mean sneaking in the non binding part, I meant sneaking in the clause incase we get mysticism from a hut, I must have miscommunicated

 

[Swissempire]

We can discuss, but I don't like the idea of making a decision 7 or 8 Techs ahead. Too many game events and information will come in in the meantime, which, put togother, will almost certainly have a decisive influence on research.

Chaos theory is a cool, but for more practical applications, walking one step a time is much more solid. I'm more of a micromanagement freak anyway, in case you haven't noticed yet.

Chaos theory deals with the behavior of certain nonlinear dynamic systems that under certain conditions exhibit a phenomenon known as chaos, which is characterised by a sensitivity to initial conditions .As a result of this sensitivity, the behavior of systems that exhibit chaos appears to be random, even though the model of the system is deterministic in the sense that it is well defined and contains no random parameters. Actually if we could make it work, Chaos Theory would work better than micromanagment, or.. say.. a minister of science! Kidding. The only thing that could replace you Blkbird is a polictical oppenant, a scandal, or a Civ related breakthrough regarding eigenstates.! You got me going

 

[Blkbird]

When I said "snuck in", I didn't mean sneaking in the non binding part, I meant sneaking in the clause incase we get mysticism from a hut, I must have miscommunicated

No, *I* must have miscommunicated. I knew you meant sneaking in the additional clause, and I was saying that clause wasn't sneaked in because it was announced in advance that my final decision may deviate from the result of this poll.

A complementary clause that has been announced in advance (not specificly of course, because it didn't exist in advance) is "not sneaked in".

 

[Blkbird]

Chaos theory deals with the behavior of certain nonlinear dynamic systems that under certain conditions exhibit a phenomenon known as chaos, which is characterised by a sensitivity to initial conditions .As a result of this sensitivity, the behavior of systems that exhibit chaos appears to be random, even though the model of the system is deterministic in the sense that it is well defined and contains no random parameters. Actually if we could make it work, Chaos Theory would work better than micromanagment, or.. say.. a minister of science! Kidding. The only thing that could replace you Blkbird is a polictical oppenant, a scandal, or a Civ related breakthrough regarding eigenstates.! You got me going

No joking, Chaos Theory really would help us here, or even slightly less advanced (?) methodes like Fuzzy Logic. But those kind of things are so complicated in implementation, we could have as well just gone through every possibility in the mean time in our case.

Microanalysis *is* a valid - and more straightforward - alternative to Chaos Theory. It breaks the chaos down to "simple, linear, deterministic" events. And that's what I'm trying to do here.

 

[von_Clausewitz]

yes in about ten turns. not in the first ten. the first turn is shot as we build the city, no research there. so that makes it in about the first 11 turns. that is 'about' so it could be the first 11 or 12 maybe as high as 14. i don't think more then 12 unless we lower the science rate or work somewhere with no commerce. but in about ten turns. yes, in around half the time it would take to finish animal husbandry. since we would finish myst in about the same time we grow to size 2, we would be about halfway finished with poly at about the same time we would be finishing AH or also the same time that anyone with myst to start would be founding buddism. halfway to hinduism would make it better then 50% if the others had to switch right then. the one large variable is how many of them are there? and would any of them decide to take the longer route to poly instead of meditation?

unfortuantly, you wanted a probability of success. for that you need a statistician and the Chief Mischief Maker is by no stretch of the imagination a statistician.

the risk of researching towards polythiesm first can be valued, not by what we stand to gain, but by what we stand to lose. the benefits of researching animal husbandry first is what we stand to lose (the risk) and yet we don't lose them or even delay them beyond our capacity to utilize them. so there is no risk if we succed or fail to gain hinduism because we do not lose anything substantial. that is the point that seems to be lost, there is no risk for trying because we don't lose anything. if the decision is based on probability of success, then that is a different matter, though i think the chances are fairly high (better then betting black at roulette). if the decision is based on risk, its a bad call. Who Dares Wins.

 

[Blkbird]

the benefits of researching animal husbandry first is what we stand to lose (the risk) and yet we don't lose them or even delay them beyond our capacity to utilize them. so there is no risk if we succed or fail to gain hinduism because we do not lose anything substantial.

I absolutely disagree. The lost would be very substancial, as I have already argumented for.

 

[Blkbird]

Please discuss the upcoming research strategy in this new thread:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=155451